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Do you get blitzed on Sunday morning? If you bet on football you should!
Every week I break down all of the big games, and post all of the last-minute breaking news to give you the edge on winning NFL games. This includes but is not limited to stats, trends,injuries line moves and wiseguy plays!
I will also post my winning NFL picks! I have had a winning week in every week of the season and my record now stands at 15-5 ATS!
Stop by three hours before kickoff and get ready for an overload of great winning information to bang the book!
Okay everyone welcome to the Blitz!!! 3 solid hours of great NFL betting info, trends and great picks!!
The Blitz starts now!
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 45)
New England has not won its first five games since running the table in its 16-0 season of 2007, but it will have to overcome a major injury. Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork was lost for the season with a torn right Achilles' tendon.
Cincinnati managed only 266 total yards in the loss to Cleveland but will likely make a concerted effort to get the ground game going to exploit the absence of the massive Wilford in the middle. Former Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging a paltry 2.7 yards per carry and could be supplanted soon by rookie Giovani Bernard, who averages 4.6 yards a pop and has 10 catches the past two weeks.
LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bengals -1. Total steady at 45.
WEATHER: Low 70s, 77% chance of thunder showers, winds SW 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-6.0) - Cincinnati (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -1.5
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.
* Under is 10-3 in Bengals last 13 games overall.
Public perception: This line was Titans minus-1 in the advance line at the LVH SuperBook before the Week 4 games were played. Jake Locker's hip injury swung the Chiefs to favorite status, but I think the public would have been on them anyway due to their 4-0 start, as evidenced by the overloaded support even as the line has gone to Chiefs minus-3.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps were also happy to bet the Chiefs laying less than a field goal, but have backed off since. If this goes to 3.5, many will buy back on the Titans, who will also be a popular teaser play.
Tuley's Take: This is the first of six home underdogs, the same total as last week. I don't like the Titans enough to make them an official play, as I think the Chiefs are the better team on both sides of the ball. Plus, we're not getting enough points here.
The Ravens offense is sputtering but the defense remains the backbone of the franchise. Outside of the 49 points given up to Denver in Week 1, Baltimore has allowed an average of 12.6 points and 170.3 passing yards over the past three weeks. A big part of that has been the pass rush, which has a total of 13 sacks on the year, led by veteran LB Terrell Suggs with four QB kills.
Miami’s run game has been stuck in mud, so the Fins find themselves leaning on second-year QB Ryan Tannehill to move the chains. With that knowledge, opposing defenses have unleashed hell on the Dolphins offensive line, which has allowed an NFL-worst 18 sacks. Tannehill has two fumbles on the year and 15 fumbles – losing seven – in his first 20 career starts.
New England keeps up the act with smoke and mirrors, with Brady orchestrating it all. This is their 2nd week on the road and this is where the magic ends. Cinci had a letdown last week after their huge win at home vs Green Bay the week before. We actually had a winner last week with Cleveland against Cinci, but really like them in this spot. Back home, where they play much better, taking on Brady with no receivers. He can’t keep getting it done with Thompkins, Dobson and Mulligan as his targets. The bigger loss is Wilfork in the middle, that hurts more than most realize. He is the anchor of that defense. That should open things up for the one-two punch of Green-Ellis and Scott. We expect a close game with the home team tipping the scales in their favor late. The Sharps say….
The Lions have scored 122 points, putting them third in the league behind Denver (179) and Chicago (127). Detroit QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson both set career highs at Green Bay on Jan. 1, 2012. Stafford passed for 520 yards while Johnson had 244 yards receiving.
Green Bay, which is coming off its bye week, has won 22 consecutive home meetings with Detroit and 14 of the last 15 overall matchups. The Lions have not been victorious in Green Bay since Dec. 15, 1991. Aaron Rodgers is undefeated against Detroit in eight career starts with a minimum of 15 passing attempts, going 169-of-246 for 2,239 yards and 18 touchdowns with only four interceptions.
LINE: Opened Packers -7.5. Total moved 52 to 53.5.
WEATHER: Mid 50s, 21% chance of rain, winds WSW 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.0) - Green Bay (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -7
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Lions are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Green Bay.