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cnotes
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Cnotes October NFL POD'S + Trends + Stats & News !

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On 10/01/2013 04:42 PM in NFL

NFL odds: Week 5 opening line report

If your sportsbook is currently dealing Kansas City as a 3-point favorite in Tennessee this Sunday, take a picture. According to one Las Vegas oddsmaker, it’s not going to last long.

The 4-0 Chiefs opened as field-goal faves visiting a Titans squad that just lost its hottest player. Tennessee QB Jake Locker was lighting up the scoreboards before being carted off with a hip injury during Week 4’s blowout win against the Jets.

“We originally sent out Kansas City as a short favorite but since the Locker injury, we’ve suggested a move to Chiefs -3,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “Books should likely get off three pretty quickly. With the combo of Kansas City’s success and Tennessee losing their quarterback, I don’t know where the Titans money is going to come from.”

The Chiefs have been dominant in their last two outings and coming off a 31-7 beating of the winless Giants Sunday. Korner says Kansas City may be peaking too early, but doesn’t see it taking a step back against a Tennessee team turning to veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as its backup.

“Fitzpatrick is probably a better option at backup than most teams have,” says Korner. “He’s been there before and the team will rally around him. But if things keep going K.C.’s way, why not take the Chiefs as a field-goal fave?”

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 43)

Korner’s stable of oddsmakers sent out Indianapolis as a 3-point home underdog but the early action has trimmed that spread by half a point at some books. Seattle looked human for most of Sunday’s game with Houston, but turned it on down the stretch and squeaked out an OT win to improve to 4-0.

“We’re a little worried about two road games in a row,” Korner says of the Seahawks’ schedule. “Being on that key number was important for us. Seattle’s tight game Sunday should help keep the Seahawks money in check a bit this week.”

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7, 55)

This is shaping up to be the biggest game of the week, with the NFL’s best team taking on its most popular. Korner says the Cowboys faithful will show up but doesn’t think it will be enough to keep this spread from crossing the key number of 7.5.

“Denver looks as impressive as any team we’ve seen in recent seasons,” he says. “We had three guys bring Denver -3 to the table and one said Denver -6. We all immediately agreed on Denver -6. The Broncos can pile it on anywhere. They sky is the limit with this line.”

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42.5)

This Sunday Night Football line could have been very different if Houston had of hung on against Seattle. But, that letdown and a sharp performance from the Niners on Thursday have oddsmakers thinking twice about San Francisco’s early struggles.

“That (Thursday) win put it in the minds of people that San Francisco can put it all together,” says Korner. “I don’t know if they’re back on track yet but if they can handle Houston, it would seem like they’re back track. On paper it should be a good game, but after Houston lost that one Sunday…”

Korner says Northern Nevada books, which get a lot of bettors from the Bay Area, should add a couple more points to this spread and hike the parlay card line to 8.5.



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10/01/2013 04:42 PM
Against the Spread Rankings

NFL ATS RANKINGS

Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under

Team Total Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away

Arizona Cardinals 2-2-0 1-0-0 1-2-0 3-1-0 1-0-0 2-1-0 1-3-0 0-1-0 1-2-0

Atlanta Falcons 1-3-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 3-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0

Baltimore Ravens 2-2-0 2-0-0 0-2-0 2-2-0 2-0-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 0-2-0 1-1-0

Buffalo Bills 2-2-0 2-1-0 0-1-0 3-1-0 3-0-0 0-1-0 2-2-0 1-2-0 1-0-0

Carolina Panthers 1-2-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-2-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-2-0 0-2-0 1-0-0

Chicago Bears 3-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 1-2-1 0-1-1 1-1-0 4-0-0 2-0-0 2-0-0

Cincinnati Bengals 2-2-0 2-0-0 0-2-0 2-1-1 2-0-0 0-1-1 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0

Cleveland Browns 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 0-2-0 1-1-0

Dallas Cowboys 2-2-0 2-0-0 0-2-0 3-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0

Denver Broncos 4-0-0 3-0-0 1-0-0 3-1-0 2-1-0 1-0-0 4-0-0 3-0-0 1-0-0

Detroit Lions 3-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 2-0-0 0-2-0

Green Bay Packers 1-2-0 1-0-0 0-2-0 1-2-0 1-0-0 0-2-0 3-0-0 1-0-0 2-0-0

Houston Texans 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-4-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 3-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0

Indianapolis Colts 3-1-0 1-1-0 2-0-0 2-2-0 0-2-0 2-0-0 1-3-0 1-1-0 0-2-0

Jacksonville Jaguars 0-4-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-4-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 0-2-0 1-1-0

Kansas City Chiefs 4-0-0 2-0-0 2-0-0 3-1-0 1-1-0 2-0-0 0-4-0 0-2-0 0-2-0

Miami Dolphins 3-0-0 1-0-0 2-0-0 3-0-0 1-0-0 2-0-0 2-1-0 1-0-0 1-1-0

Minnesota Vikings 1-3-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 4-0-0 2-0-0 2-0-0

New England Patriots 4-0-0 2-0-0 2-0-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 0-2-0 1-1-0

New Orleans Saints 3-0-0 2-0-0 1-0-0 2-1-0 2-0-0 0-1-0 0-3-0 0-2-0 0-1-0

New York Giants 0-4-0 0-1-0 0-3-0 0-4-0 0-1-0 0-3-0 2-2-0 1-0-0 1-2-0

New York Jets 2-2-0 2-0-0 0-2-0 3-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0

Oakland Raiders 1-3-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 3-1-0 1-1-0 2-0-0 1-3-0 0-2-0 1-1-0

Philadelphia Eagles 1-3-0 0-2-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 0-2-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 1-1-0 2-0-0

Pittsburgh Steelers 0-4-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-4-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0

San Diego Chargers 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 3-0-1 2-0-0 1-0-1 3-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0

San Francisco 49ers 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0

Seattle Seahawks 4-0-0 2-0-0 2-0-0 4-0-0 2-0-0 2-0-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0

St. Louis Rams 1-3-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 0-4-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 3-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-4-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 0-4-0 0-2-0 0-2-0

Tennessee Titans 3-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 3-0-1 1-0-1 2-0-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0

Washington Redskins 1-3-0 0-2-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 0-2-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0

Updated: Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 11:55 PM EDT
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10/01/2013 04:42 PM

NFL line watch: Don't play on Packers until Sunday

Spread to bet now

Jacksonville Jaguars (+13.5) at St. Louis Rams

If you think that Jacksonville can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door vs. the Rams, then you should consider jumping on this line as soon as possible. It opened at -14 but is already dropping fast. There are still some 13.5s out there, but there are also a couple of 13s and even some 11s on the board.

Things don't get any easier for either team as St. Louis is on the road for two straight in Houston and Carolina, while Jacksonville will be in Denver next weekend, likely as the biggest underdog of the last 10 years.

The Jags have put 20 points on the board in two straight losses, while the Rams have mustered just 18 in two straight setbacks.

Jacksonville fought tough versus Seahawks on road for a half and it appears that both the public and the sharps feel that the Jaguars still have some fight left in them. Note that Jacksonville is 0-4 for the third time in franchise history and that the team has never started 0-5.

Spread to wait on

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers(-7)

If you think the Packers can handle business versus their division rival at home then you should consider waiting until closer to game time before getting involved with this contest.

The line opened at 7.5, but quickly dropped. Green Bay is now a 7-point favorite, but there are even a few 6.5s creeping onto the board.

Divisional contests are always the most important games of the season and doubly so for the home side. The Packers are coming off their bye, having lost to the Bengals the week before.

The fact that Green Bay has surrendered 88 points over its first three games and that the Lions won 40-32 over the Bears last week is likely a big reason why both the sharps and the public continue to hammer the visitors in this one.

Total to watch

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (55)

If you’re a fan of the Over consider waiting a bit closer to kickoff before hammering this one. This line opened at 55 but a few 54.5s have hit the board. It's obvious that neither the public nor the sharps believe these teams can muster much of an offensive attack.

Hard to blame them though as the G-Men have posted a miserable seven total points in back-to-back losses (they put up 54 over their first two setbacks), while the Eagles have managed just 36 (after posting 63 in their first two games). Despite having one win between them after the first four weeks, amazingly, the NFC East is still up for grabs



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10/03/2013 06:30 PM
Thursday, October 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Buffalo - 8:25 PM ET Buffalo +3.5 500 POD # 1

Cleveland - Over 41 500 POD # 2
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10/03/2013 11:31 PM
October Trends

October 2, 2013


September

Although the rosters change with each season, NFL teams have a tendency of repeating themselves – especially when it comes to the point-spread wars.

With the leaves starting to fall, let’s take a look at some of the ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ pro football team trends that have occurred in the month of October in the NFL since 1990.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh will definitely be tested to keep this long stretch of excellent play going (28-15 ATS) with this year’s squad. They will be home just once and that will be a bitter battle with Baltimore.

Even when Kansas City has been dreadful, they have still managed to play well at Arrowhead with a 27-18 ATS mark. They will have three chances to improve on this record with Oakland, Houston and Cleveland coming to town for barbeque and football.

Keep an eye on (Bad): After making the playoffs the past two years, and starting 2-0 SU and ATS at Paul Brown Stadium in 2013, Cincinnati will be after real improvement on a 14-27 ATS mark this month again New England and the Jets.

AWAY TEAMS

Good: Atlanta has been regarded as a Play On home team for a number of years now, but actually they are 27-13 ATS as visitors in October. They will have one chance to prove themselves the last Sunday of the month in the Arizona desert.

Keep an eye on (Good): The last time the New York Giants looked this bad was the latter two-thirds of the 2009 season. Nevertheless, the G-Men have been money on the road and they will seek to improve upon 26-14 ATS record. They will undoubtedly be catching points at Chicago and at Philadelphia.

New England is a crisp 25-16 ATS in road affairs and tough test in Cincinnati and a return match in New Jersey with the Jets, where they are 12-2 ATS.

Bad: Arizona is a historically odious road team no matter the time of year, but this month, they are an insufferable 12-24 ATS. The lone trip to Frisco does not figure to be pleasant for the Redbirds.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we find two teams with a lousy past in October. One figures to improve and the other, not so much. Seattle (16-31 ATS) will be in the road uniforms three times, twice against division foes Arizona and St. Louis.

Thanks to a bye week, Tampa Bay (14-26 ATS) only has to travel to Atlanta for a road excursion this month of year.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Given how St. Louis has played this season, it be difficult for them to improve on 19-11 ATS record this month. Looking at the schedule, they will only have one chance when they are home against Jacksonville on Oct. 6.

Bad: Because of a Halloween encounter, Cincinnati will play five games in October. The Bengals have been inconsistent and might not be favored as often as was once presumed. They will likely be a small favorite versus Buffalo and a larger favorite at home against the Jets. This is probably more than enough as Cincy is 8-18 ATS supplying others with points.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Tampa Bay is in the midst of another miserable campaign, which is exactly how they play in the role of favorite with a 15-25 ATS mark. We will see what oddsmakers think of the Bucs at home against Philadelphia and Carolina and wager accordingly.

DOGS

Good: Given how Pittsburgh and the New York Giants have played thus far, their past history acknowledges they are almost nicely suited to be underdogs. The Steelers are 20-7 ATS and the Giants are 20-9 ATS, unfortunately in most cases it was with far better teams than what we have seen in 2013.

Keep an eye on (Good): For years, Carolina has relished the underdog role in the second month of the season with a 25-14 spread record. Depending on circumstances, they might not have many opportunities, with trip to Minnesota and Tampa Bay the only possibilities.

Keep an eye on (Bad): The Vikings are 12-22 ATS on the receiving end of points and could in this role at the N.Y. Giants and home versus Green Bay the second half of the month.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta may be off is a disappointing start, yet is 20-11 ATS in division conflicts and has the Buccaneers at home on Oct. 20.

The New York football Giants are 23-12 ATS and will have two chances to turn their season around with a home and home against the Eagles.
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10/03/2013 11:34 PM
Tech Trends - Week 5

October 2, 2013

Thursday, Oct. 3 - NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns Browns "under" 14-4 at home since 2011. Bills 6-11-1 last 18 vs. line on road. Slight to "under" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.


Sunday, Oct. 6 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans Teams are a combined 7-0-1 vs. line first three weeks. Chiefs "under" 4-0 TY and "under" 26-11 since late 2010. Slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.


Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins Dolphins 3-1 SU and vs. line TY after NO last Monday. Harbaugh 20-14 as road dog since 2008. Miami covered vs. Falcs but still 11-23 last 34 as home chalk. Dolphins also "under" 26-15 last 41. Ravens and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams Jags 0-4 SU and vs. line, 1-8 last 9 on board since late 2012. Rams 0-4 vs. line TY and 1-5 last 6 as home chalk since 2011. Slight to Rams, based on Jag negatives.


New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals If Belichick a dog note 11-3-1 mark in role since 2006. NE "under" first three TY after "over" 35-12-1 in reg. season 2010-12. Cincy 9-2-1 last 11 on board since late 2012. Tech edge-slight to Patriots, if dog, based on Belichick trends.


Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts Pete Carroll 4-0 SU and vs. line TY, 11-1 SU and vs. line since late 2012. Indy 4-0 as home dog since LY, "under" 22-7-1 last 30 since 2011. Seahawks and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Lions haven't won SU at Green Bay since the Wayne Fontes era in 1991. Pack has covered last four in series and 17-8 as home chalk since 2010. Tech edge-Pack, based on series trends.


New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears If Bears dog note 4-3 mark in role at home in reg. season since 2010. Bears 29-15 SU at home since 2008. Saints 11-15 vs. line away since 2010. Slight to Bears, based on team trends.


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants NYG 0-4 SU and vs. line TY, but have covered 3 of last 4 in series. G-Men 13-20-1 vs. line at home since 2009. Birds have covered 5 of last 6 on road vs. G-Men. Birds "over" 3-1 TY and 8-2 last ten since late 2012. "Over" and Eagles, based on "totals" and team trends.


Sunday, Oct. 6 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals Panthers "over" 11-6 last 17 away. Big Red "over" 15-9 at home since 2010. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys Broncos "over" 4-0 TY and 13-4 last 17 since early 2012, also "over" 41-19-2 since late 2009. Broncos have also won and covered last 9 in reg. season and 13-2 last 15, Dallas 5-13 last 18 vs. line as host. Also "over" 7-3 last 10 at home. Broncos and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


Sunday, Oct. 6 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers Texans 0-4 vs. line TY but Kubiak is 7-4 last 11 as dog. Harbaugh 14-5-1 as home chalk since taking over SF in 2011, though 49ers 2-4 last 6 in reg. season vs. line. Texans, based on Kubiak dog marks.


Sunday, Oct. 6 - NFL, 11:35 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders Chargers 9-2 vs. line last 11 at Oakland, note road team has covered last seven in series. Bolts also "over" 15-5 last 20 on road. Chargers and slight to "over," based on series trends .


Monday, Oct. 7 - ESPN, Game to start at 8:30 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons Rexy 3-1 vs. line TY, though only 4-8 in role past two seasons. Falcs 24-12-1 as home chalk since 2007. Falcs "under" 7-3 at home LY but now "over" last three at Georgia Dome. Falcons, based on extended team trends.


Teams on Bye - Week 5
Minnesota Vikings Pittsburgh Steelers Tampa Bay Buccaneers Washington Redskins
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10/03/2013 11:35 PM
Inside The Stats

October 3, 2013


Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here are this week’s findings…

Pitch Forked

Heading into last week’s Arizona State-USC showdown, both the Sun Devils and the Trojans had held every opponent to a season-low yardage mark this year.

When the final dust settled, each team surprisingly managed to gain season-high yards in the contest.

It not only sent USC packing but ASU also stuck the final fork in Lane Kiffin’s career with the Trojans.

Thus, heading into the month of October, six college football teams remain that have held EVERY opponent to a season-low yardage mark.

They include: Arizona, Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State, Virginia Tech and Washington.

On the flip, New Mexico State has allowed season-high yards in every game.

It should also be noted that Fresno State has surrendered season high yards in each of its three games verse FBS opponents this year as well.

Freshen Up - Again

Last week our ‘Smart Box’ examined the benefit of backing college football teams playing with a week of rest in Game Four of the season when off a win in Game Three.

Following a 3-0 ATS performance by last week’s qualifying teams (Buffalo, Oregon and Central Florida), we thought it would be wise to revisit the sagacious square once again this week.

To recap, our powerful database instructs us to ‘Play On’ these reinvigorated home teams when taking the field off a win with a week of rest in Game Four of the season as they now a super-strong 73-33-1 ATS in these games since 1980.

This week finds Baylor, Kansas and Memphis playing with renewed confidence.

When bringing these rested Game Four hosts in with a measure of revenge, they rocket to 27-9 ATS. All three of the aforementioned teams will be looking to avenge losses from previous meetings this week!

And if they dress up as either a favorite or as a dog of 10 or less points, they zoom to 21-4 ATS.

With that we expect Baylor will be loaded for ‘bear’ this Saturday.

Smoke And Mirrors

We enjoy examining teams who won their most recent game on the scoreboard, but lost the yards on the stat sheet.

We call it winning ‘inside-out’, or with smoke and mirrors.

College football teams playing this week who won the game but lost the stats in their previous game include: Kansas, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio State, Rice, Utah and West Virginia.

In the NFL, the ‘inside-out’ winners included: Detroit, New England, Seattle and Tennessee.

Note: The Seahawks were out yarded by 206 yards in their win over the Texans.

Balance Beam

After four week in the NFL, the oddsmakers have done a good job with the Over/Under totals. There have been 32 OVERS and 31 UNDERS.

From our NFL Totals Tipsheet, here is the weekly breakdown …

Week One: 8-8 O/U
Week Two: 8-8 O/U
Week Three: 7-9 O/U
Week Four: 9-6 O/U

From a league perspective, the best OVER situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) as these games have gone 15-7 OVER.

The best UNDER situation has occurred in same conference non-division games, going 7-15 UNDER.

Stat Of The Week

Since joining the Big 10, Penn State is 1-16 ATS in its first conference game when facing an opponent with at least one win on the season.
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10/03/2013 11:42 PM
NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BUFFALO (2 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 2) - 10/3/2013, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 6

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 0) at TENNESSEE (3 - 1) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 0) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


JACKSONVILLE (0 - 4) at ST LOUIS (1 - 3) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 129-166 ATS (-53.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-166 ATS (-53.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEW ENGLAND (4 - 0) at CINCINNATI (2 - 2) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 79-45 ATS (+29.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-115 ATS (+27.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 112-145 ATS (-47.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SEATTLE (4 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 1) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DETROIT (3 - 1) at GREEN BAY (1 - 2) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEW ORLEANS (4 - 0) at CHICAGO (3 - 1) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (0 - 4) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 151-116 ATS (+23.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at ARIZONA (2 - 2) - 10/6/2013, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (1 - 3) - 10/6/2013, 11:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (4 - 0) at DALLAS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/6/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 35-16 ATS (+17.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, October 6

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NY JETS (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 3) - 10/7/2013, 8:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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10/03/2013 11:43 PM
NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 3

8:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games


Sunday, October 6

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CHICAGO
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. GREEN BAY
Detroit is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Green Bay's last 25 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. CINCINNATI
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. ST. LOUIS
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the NY Giants last 17 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

4:05 PM
CAROLINA vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 11 games
San Francisco is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home

11:30 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
Oakland is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego


Monday, October 7

8:40 PM
NY JETS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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10/03/2013 11:43 PM
Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

The NFL Week 5 lines have been among the most volatile of the season, with numerous spreads and totals jumping way off their original post.

We talk to Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com and Las Vegas veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro about the biggest adjustments on the Week 5 board and where the lines could end up come kickoff:

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5, Move: +1

Despite an awesome performance on Monday Night Football, the Saints opened a pick for their trip to the Windy City and have moved to 1.5-point underdogs at some books. However, money is coming in hard on New Orleans and some shops are dealing the Saints as favorites with 80 percent of the action on the road side.

“We opened the Saints-Bears a pick’em and sure enough, our bettors are all over the Saints in this game,” says Childs. “Just this morning we made the Saints a small 1-point road favorite.”


Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams – Open: -14, Move: -11.5

Bettors didn’t think the Rams were good enough to be two-touchdown favorites, even if they are hosting the Jaguars Sunday. Action on Jacksonville has taken this spread down as many as 2.5 points at some markets.

“Overpriced is a term that doesn’t seem to fit the Jaguars any more. Early action has come in on Jacksonville the last few weeks,” says Vaccaro. “You kind of have to play defense with these bad teams. People have been betting the big spreads on teams like Seattle and Denver. So while the Jaguars line will come down, it could be right where it started on Sunday.”


New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

Some books have moved off a pick to Bengals to -1.5 while others opened Cincinnati -1.5 and moved to pick’em. According to Childs, Sportsbook.com went from Cincy -1.5 to Pick with the betting public eating up New England after a strong showing Sunday night. So far, 75 percent of the action is on the Pats.

“None of that action was sharp, it’s all public money but when our bettors all land on the same side of a game our liability gets a bit out of control, so we’ve been aggressive with this game,” he says. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots are eventually the favorite come Sunday.”


Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: +2

Another tight spread which opened at a pick’em at most shops has moved in favor of the road side. Arizona squeaked out a win over Tampa Bay in Week 4 while the Panthers enjoyed a bye week after crushing the Giants the week before.

“It’s the same old thing (with bye weeks),” says Vaccaro. “It can’t hurt them. But everything is in the number now, so there’s no real edge in betting these teams coming off the bye. If you’re betting this game, and betting a team because they’re coming off the bye… well, let’s put it this way. You aren’t going to retire soon.”


Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys – Open: +7, Move: +9

Oddsmakers opened Dallas as a touchdown underdog hosting the NFL’s hottest team. That wasn’t enough for early bettors, who pumped this line up as many as two points. The Cowboys are one of the most public teams in football betting and have begun to see buyback with the spread sitting at +9.

“Unless a sharp betting group hammers the Cowboys, I doubt we’ll move off our current number,” says Childs. “But it’s still very early and all the wiseguys are just sitting on the sideline for now waiting to see how high this line will get. In my opinion, they’re going to jump all over the Cowboys at some point, especially now that the game is over a TD in our shop and most of our competitors are getting there as well.”

“This is by far the biggest bet game at this point in the week, with 80 percent of the action on the road favorite,” he adds.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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