10/19/2013 10:53 AM
Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action
Check out our NCAAF Top 25 cheat sheet for Saturday's evening action
TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7.5, 50.5)
TCU is coming off a sloppy performance against Kansas in which the team committed five turnovers in a 27-17 victory. In that game, Trevone Boykin rushed for a touchdown and threw for another – a 75-yard strike to David Porter – while the Frogs added 207 yards on the ground.
Well rested following its second bye in four weeks, Oklahoma State looks to push its home winning streak to seven games on Saturday against Texas Christian. The 17th-ranked Cowboys have not played since a 33-29 win over Kansas State on Oct. 5 – a game in which Oklahoma State rallied late in the fourth quarter.
LINE: The Cowboys opened as 7-point faves and are now -7.5. The total is currently 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 8 mph.
* Horned Frogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week.
* Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Over is 14-3 in Horned Frogs last 17 games following a bye week.
Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores (+7, 62)
No. 16 Georgia will look to bounce back from a tough loss and stay in the hunt to reach the SEC Championship Game when it travels to Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-25 loss to Missouri that dropped them a game behind the Tigers in the SEC East, but know they still have a shot to reach their third consecutive conference title game if they win out.
Vanderbilt is coming out of its bye week after being outscored 125-88 in its three SEC games. Things likely won't get any better with Georgia in town, as the Bulldogs have won 10 in a row at Vanderbilt Stadium and 17 of the last 18 meetings overall in the series.
LINE: Georgia opened as a 9-point road fave and is now -7. The total opened 61 and is up to 62.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.
* Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Commodores are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games.
* Over is 8-0 in Bulldogs last eight games overall.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers (+5.5, 57)
Tech QB Baker Mayfield, who has 1,488 passing yards and eight touchdowns in five starts, missed the Iowa State game after injuring his knee against Kansas. Davis Webb (965 yards, nine TDs) has appeared in five contests and sophomore Michael Brewer is healthy after missing a month with a back injury.
WVU QB Paul Millard replaced Clint Trickett during a 73-42 loss to Baylor on Oct. 5, when the Mountaineers allowed eight rushing touchdowns and a conference-record 864 total yards. Head coach Dana Holgorsen hopes his familiarity with Kliff Kingsbury and the Texas Tech offense will help the Mountaineer defense - ranked ninth in the Big 12 in points and yards allowed - this week.
LINE: WVU opened as an 8-point home dog and is now +5.5. The total is currently 57.
WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of rain in the forecast for Morgantown.
* Red Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 8-1 in Mountaineers last nine games overall.
* Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers (+7, 54.5)
The Gamecocks dominated the Arkansas Razorbacks in every facet of the game, including time of possession (43:25-16:35) and first downs (32-7) in a 52-7 rout last week. South Carolina’s offense is averaging 486.5 yards, good for 23rd in FBS and easily on pace to break the school record of 428.8 set in 1995.
Rajion Neal has been the focal point of the Volunteers’ offense over the last two games, running for 169 yards and a score in a Sept. 28 win over South Alabama before adding 148 and two touchdowns against Georgia.
LINE: The Gamecocks opened 7-point road faves. The total opened at 54.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 8-0 in Gamecocks last eight conference games.
Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers (+3, 44)
Gators Running back Matt Jones is the latest to go down after suffering a season-ending knee injury against LSU and will take his place on the sideline next to quarterback Jeff Driskel, who went down for the season on Sept. 21. Tyler Murphy took over for Driskel and was solid in his first two starts before struggling to 15-for-27 for 115 yards last week.
Missouri shocked the Georgia Bulldogs last week defensively, forcing four turnovers, and needs one more interception to double its total from last season (seven). QB Maty Mauk - who will start after James Franklin picked up an injury last week - was an All-American in high school and also starred in track and field, which should allow the Tigers to keep the running packages that made Franklin dangerous in place.
LINE: The Gators opened as 3-point road faves. The total opened at 44.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 33 percent chance of rain.
* Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. loss.
* Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 7-2 in Tigers last nine games overall.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Central Michigan Chippewas (+15, 59)
Northern Illinois goes after its 20th consecutive Mid-American Conference victory against the last program to hand it a league defeat when the No. 23 Huskies visit Central Michigan on Saturday. Huskies star quarterback Jordan Lynch became the 10th player in FBS history to run for more than 3,000 yards and pass for more than 4,000 in his career in last Saturday’s victory over Akron.
The Chippewas hope for the return of star receiver Titus Davis (shoulder), who missed the last game and has recorded 29 catches for 518 yards this season while ranking third in school history with 20 receiving touchdowns. Redshirt freshman quarterback Cooper Rush (nine touchdowns, nine interceptions) is becoming more comfortable with the offense and running back Saylor Lavallii is coming off a career-best 184-yard rushing performance in a win over Ohio University.
LINE: The Chippewas opened as 17-point home dogs and are now +15. The total opened at 59.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 77 percent possibility of showers.
* Huskies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Central Michigan.
* Huskies are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Central Michigan.
UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-6, 53.5)
Unbeaten UCLA, ranked 10th nationally, has a chance to get itself into the national championship picture over the next two Saturdays but the visiting Bruins first must defeat No. 13 Stanford on Saturday. Sophomore quarterback Brett Hundley is thriving with 1,469 yards and 12 touchdowns and his 410-yard effort in last week’s victory over California was the third-highest output in school history behind Cade McNown (513 in 1998) and Drew Olson (510 in 2005).
Stanford defeated UCLA twice last season in a seven-day span – winning 35-17 at the Rose Bowl in the regular season before posting a 27-24 home win in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The loss to Utah last week marked the initial defeat in 11 career starts for quarterback Kevin Hogan, who has passed for 1,178 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.
LINE: Stanford opened -6.5 and is now -6. The total is 53.5, down from the opening number 54.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with clear skies.
* Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 9-2 in Stanford's last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines (-8.5, 69)
The Hoosiers lost 42-28 to Michigan State last weekend, but the offense played well in defeat. The 28 points were the most scored against the Spartans in the last two seasons and Indiana’s 351 yards of total offense were much higher than the 203.8 yards Michigan State was allowing entering the game.
In the loss to Penn State, Michigan welcomed back linebacker Jake Ryan, who had been out since March with a torn ACL, but the Wolverines lost All-American tackle Taylor Lewan to a hip injury. Lewan is expected to play against Indiana, and that should benefit Michigan’s running backs, who combined for 27 yards on 27 carries against Penn State.
LINE: Michigan opened as a 10.5-point fave and is now -8.5. The total opened at 67 and is up to 69.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 54 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 10 mph.
* Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Wolverines last seven home games.
* Over is 19-7 in Hoosiers last 26 road games.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Ohio State Buckeyes (-17.5, 55.5)
The Hawkeyes used their bye week to get healthy after a punishing 26-14 loss to the Spartans and expect to have both running back Mark Weisman and wide receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley ready to go after the two went down in the loss.
The Buckeyes are winners of 18 straight games since Urban Meyer took over, four shy of the school record, and do not have another currently ranked team on their remaining schedule. Ohio State is winning with offense in 2013 and can change the pace by inserting Kenny Guiton at quarterback if necessary.
LINE: The Buckeyes opened as 17-point faves are are now -17.5. The total opened at 55.5.
WEATHER: There is a 63 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.
* Favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Hawkeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Ohio State.
* Buckeyes are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. win.
Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks (+23, 49)
The Sooners defense was exposed in a 36-20 loss to rival Texas, struggling to stop the run and allowing 13-of-20 third-down conversions. Defensive tackle Jordan Phillips (back) is the second starter, along with linebacker Corey Nelson (pectoral), to have season-ending surgery this week.
Jayhawks coach Charlie Weis announced Tuesday he will change how the offensive coaching staff operates, hoping to spark an offense that's averaging 15.8 points in its last 11 conference games. Weis will oversee the offense and help coach skill positions but will get more input from quarterbacks coach Ron Powlus (passing game) and tight ends coach Jeff Blasko (running game) as he develops a game plan.
LINE: The Sooners opened as 24-point road faves and are now -23. The total opened at 49.
WEATHER: Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-60s.
* Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 8-3 in Jayhawks last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-13.5, 73)
The Tigers' return to relevance in the SEC West has hinged on a powerful run game that ranks seventh in the nation at 287 yards per game and totaled 511 yards on the ground last week. That outburst came without dual-threat quarterback Nick Marshall, who is expected to return from a knee injury and start Saturday.
QB Johnny Manziel and the Aggies continue to light up the scoreboard in Sumlin's up-tempo system, ranking third in the nation in total offense and fourth in scoring (47.8). The Aggies have scored 40 or more points in nine straight games - the longest active streak in the FBS - and they've topped 400 total yards in 18 straight contests.
LINE: The Aggies opened -12.5 and are now -13.5. The total opened at 72 and is up to 73.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 11 mph.
* Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
* Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in October.
* Over is 5-1 in Aggies last six games overall.
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