cnotes Posts:31744 Followers:37
10/09/2013 04:48 PM

Short Sheet

Week 7

Thursday, October 10

Rutgers at Louisville, 7:30 ET
Rutgers: 10-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Louisville: 24-11 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

San Diego St at Air Force, 9:00 ET
San Diego St: 16-5 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56
Air Force: 3-13 ATS in home lined games

Arizona at USC, 10:30 ET
Arizona: 8-1 OVER after playing a conference game
USC: 2-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Friday, October 11

Temple at Cincinnati, 8:30 ET
Temple: 11-2 OVER in road games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game
Cincinnati: 34-18 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

Saturday, October 12

Oklahoma at Texas, 12:00 ET
Oklahoma: 14-10 ATS in games played on a grass field
Texas: 1-5 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Indiana at Michigan State, 12:00 ET
Indiana: 14-4 OVER in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56
Michigan State: 1-9 ATS in home lined games

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech, 12:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 3-12 ATS in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards
Virginia Tech: 37-18 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

Boston College at Clemson, 3:30 ET
Boston College: 0-6 ATS as a road underdog
Clemson: 13-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins

Eastern Michigan at Army, 12:00 ET
Eastern Michigan: 15-4 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more
Army: 1-8 ATS against MAC opponents

Virginia at Maryland, 3:30 ET
Virginia: 0-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Maryland: 12-2 ATS in home games after a loss by 28 or more points

Texas AM at Mississippi, 8:30 ET
Texas AM: 0-6 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63
Mississippi: 17-6 ATS in games played on turf

Bowling Green at Mississippi State, 7:30 ET
Bowling Green: 6-0 ATS after a win by 21 or more points
Mississippi St: 11-2 UNDER after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games

Iowa State at Texas Tech, 12:00 ET
Iowa State: 3-14 ATS in road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival
Texas Tech: 7-0 ATS after a win by 17 or more points

Georgia Tech at BYU, 7:00 ET
Georgia Tech: 6-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road
BYU: 4-13 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Nebraska at Purdue, 12:00 ET
Nebraska: 19-34 ATS in road games off a home win against a conference rival
Purdue: 12-2 OVER in home lined games

Missouri at Georgia, 12:00 ET
Missouri: 59-38 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Georgia: 9-22 ATS in home games off a road win

Baylor at Kansas State, 3:30 ET
Baylor: 12-3 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63
Kansas State: 15-5 OVER after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses

Florida at LSU, 3:30 ET
Florida: 61-39 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival
LSU: 20-38 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games

Oregon at Washington, 3:30 ET
Oregon: 9-1 ATS in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
Washinton: 69-96 ATS after playing a conference game

California at UCLA, 10:30 ET
California: 0-6 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game
UCLA: 10-1 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63

Northwestern at Wisconsin, 10:30 ET
Northwestern: 13-4 ATS when playing on a Saturday
Wisconsin: 17-3 OVER in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Alabama at Kentucky, 7:00 ET
Alabama: 19-7 ATS in road games off 2 consecutive home wins
Kentucky: 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

San Jose State at Colorado State, 3:30 ET
San Jose State: 16-4 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Colorado State: COLORADO ST is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in games played on turf

Michigan at Penn State, 5:00 ET
Michigan: 38-63 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Penn State: 10-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Memphis at Houston, 12:00 ET
Memphis: 2-10 ATS after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Houston: 7-0 ATS after a game where they committed no turnovers

Marshal at Florida Atlantic, 5:00 ET
Marshal: 10-22 ATS as a road favorite
Florida Atlantic: 9-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Kansas at TCU, 12:00 ET
Kansas: 7-19 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points
TCU: 20-4 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49

Boise State at Utah State, 8:00 ET
Boise State: 67-43 ATS against conference opponents
Utah State: 24-10 UNDER in home games after the first month

Oregon State at Washington State, 10:30 ET
Oregon State: 22-7 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Washington State: 10-28 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Tulsa at Utep, 8:00 ET
Tulsa: 22-10 UNDER in October games
Utep: 4-15 ATS in home games after having lost 4 out of their last 5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31744 Followers:37
10/09/2013 04:51 PM

Tech Trends - Week 7

October 9, 2013

Thursday, Oct. 10

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

RUTGERS at LOUISVILLE...Lvl has won and covered last three meetings. Though 'Gers 6-2 as road dog since 2011. Cards 5-8 as DD chalk since 2011. Rutgers, based on dog trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at AIR FORCE...Aztecs have won and covered last three vs. Force. Falcs just 5-14 vs. line since LY. SDSU, based on team and series trends.

ARIZONA at SOUTHERN CAL...For Kiffin SC was 1-4 vs. line TY and 4-14 since LY. Cats have covered 7 of last 8 in series, including last four at Coliseum. Arizona, based on team trends.

Friday, Oct. 11

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TEMPLE at CINCINNATI...Home team is 5-0 vs. line in Cincy games TY (Bearcats 2-0 at home). Cincy 10-5 as Nippert chalk since 2011. Owls on 2-8 spread slide since mid 2012. Cincy, based on team trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31744 Followers:37
10/09/2013 04:59 PM

Saturday, Oct. 12

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

OKLAHOMA vs. TEXAS (at Cotton Bowl, Dallas)...Stoops has owned this series lately, winning and covering last three and laying 55 and 63 on Horns the last two years. Mack only 5-9 as dog since 2009 and 4-9 last 13 reg.-season games vs. line. OU, based on team and series trends.

INDIANA at MICHIGAN STATE...Spartans 1-8 as home chalk since 2012, 3-9 last 12 as favorite overall. IU, based on MSU home chalk negatives.

PITT at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer 10-22-1 last 33 on board since late 2010 (but 2-0 last 2) . Beamer 4-9-1 as home chalk since 2011. Pitt 20-10-2 as dog since 2007 (3-4 in role for Paul Chryst). Pitt, based on recent Beamer negatives.

MIAMI-OHIO at UMASS...RedHawks 5-12 vs. line since 2012 and 2-8 vs. line last 10 away from Yager Stadium. This is the first time UMass has ever been favored on the board! Slight to UMass, based on Miami-O negatives.

BOSTON COLLEGE at CLEMSON...Dabo 4-1 SU and vs. line against BC since 2008. Eagles 0-6 as road dog since 2012 and no covers last seven on road. Dabo 12-6 last 18 on board. Clemson, based on team and series trends.

BUFFALO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...WMU now 6-13 last 19 on board since late 2011. WMU only 4-10-1 as home dog since 2003. Buff rare road chalk, only 1-1-1 in role all-time. Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at OHIO...CMU 1-5 vs. line TY, 8-23 since 2011, and 1-12 last 13 as road dog since late 2010. Solich 7-3 vs. line last 10 as host. Ohio, based on CMU negatives.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at ARMY...Eagles 3-5 as road dog since LY and 1-4 last 5 as single-digit dog. West Point 8-6 last 14 vs. line at home but Army 7-16 as chalk since 2003. Slight to EMU, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA at MARYLAND...UVa HC Mike London 4-13-2 last 19 on board since late 2011. Terps beat Cavs when shorthanded LY, although road team has covered last 4 in series. Maryland, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at UCONN...USF 6-19-1 last 26 on board since early 2011. Although Bulls are 4-2 last six as road dog. UConn now post-Pasqualoni, and just 4-9 as chalk since 2011. Slight to UConn, based on team trends.

NAVY at DUKE...Niumatalolo 11-4 as visiting dog since 2008. Duke 5-1 as home chalk since LY. Navy, based on extended visiting dog numbers.

TROY at GEORGIA STATE...GSU has covered last 3 TY! Troy 8-17 last 25 as chalk, 3-7 last 10 laying DD. Georgia State, based on recent trends.

TEXAS A&M at OLE MISS...Hugh Freeze 22-8 vs. line at Ark State & Ole Miss, also 7-3 as dog. Ags only 2-3 last five as visiting chalk for Sumlin. Slight to Ole Miss, based on Freeze dog marks.

KENT STATE at BALL STATE...Pete Lembo 19-6 last 25 on board, 7-1 vs. line last 8 as host. Flashes 2-5 vs. line post-Hazell. Ball, based on team trends.

BOWLING GREEN at MISSISSIPPI STATE...BGSU 11-4 vs. spread since early 2012. But Dan Mullen 4-1 vs. line last 5 hosting non-SEC and Bulldogs 9-1 last 10 as home chalk. MSU, based on team trends.

AKRON at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Terry Bowden 6-3 as road dog since LY (1-2 TY). NIU won and covered handily in 2009, '10 & '12. Huskies 0-2 laying DD TY but 6-1 in role a year ago. NIU, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at TEXAS TECH...Kingsbury 4-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line TY. ISU has covered last two as dog TY and Cyclones 8-4 vs. line as visitor since 2011. Slight to TT, based on recent trends.

RICE at UTSA...Owls pounded Roadrunners 34-14 in Bird Bowl LY. Rice 9-3 last 12 on board. Coker 1-3 last three TY. Rice, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO at WYOMING...Lobos 3-7 last nine on board since late 2012. Wyo 7-2 last nine on board. Wyo, based on recent trends.

STANFORD at UTAH...Tree 13-3 last 16 as visiting chalk, 14-4-1 last 19 as visitor. Utes 2-2 as home dog since 2011. Stanford, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at BYU...Revenge for GT after getting whipped at home LY 41-17 by BYU. Paul Johnson 11-8 as dog away from home since 2008. Cougs 25-11 last 36 on board. Slight to BYU, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA at PURDUE...Bo Pelini 0-3 as visiting chalk LY and 0-6 vs. line away from Lincoln; Huskers 0-8-1 vs. number last nine away from home. Purdue just 1-4 vs. line for Hazell. Slight to Purdue, based on Pelini road negatives.

MISSOURI at GEORGIA...Pinkel 6-3 last 9 as road dog, 8-4 vs. line as visitor since 2011. Richt 4-7 last 11 as DD chalk. Mizzou, based on team trends.

BAYLOR at KANSAS STATE...Revenge for Bill Snyder after Baylor wrecked K-State BCS title hopes LY. Dog has covered last three in series. Snyder has covered last 4 in revenge. Snyder 18-9 as dog since returning to KSU in 2009. Bears 0-3 as road chalk since 2011. KSU, based on Snyder and series dog trends.

FLORIDA at LSU...Home team has won and covered last two in series, LSU 2-0 in single-digit spread games TY. Muschamp was 4-0 as dog LY after 0-5 mark in role in 2011. Slight to LSU, based on team trends.

COLORADO at ARIZONA STATE...MacIntyre still 16-4 last 19 vs. line at SJSU & CU, and 10-3 last 13 as dog. ASU a good bully lately, 5-0 laying DD since Graham arrived LY and 6-2 as home chalk overall. CU, based on team trends.

OREGON at WASHINGTON...Ducks have won and covered last nine in series. UO has also covered last 11 as visiting chalk (neutral LY vs. Wazzu). UO, based on team and series trends.

CAL at UCLA...Bruins 4-0 SU and vs. line TY and now 12-6 vs. line for Mora. Revenge for Bruins after big loss at Berkeley LY, and Cal has won and covered 4 of last five meetings. Cal 0-5 vs. line TY and Sonny Dykes now 0-10 vs. spread since mid 2012 at LT. UCLA, based on recent trends.

NORTHWESTERN at WISCONSIN...NU 13-4-1 vs. line since LY. Also 5-2 as dog that span. Cats 12-5 as visiting dog since 2008. Andersen 3-0 as home chalk TY for Wiscy after Bielema was 2-5 in role LY. Andersen teams 7-1 as home chalk since LY (USU & Wisc). Slight to NU, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA at TULANE...Home team has won and covered last three since 2008. Wave 6-2 as home dog since LY. Dog has covered first five ECU games TY. Tulane, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at ARKANSAS...Bielema teams 9-4-1 as dog since 2009. Spurrier had lost and failed to cover three straight vs. Petrino before beating John L. LY. SC 2-5-1 vs. line last 8 as visitor. Arkansas, based on team trends.

ALABAMA at KENTUCKY...UK 5-10-1 vs. line since LY (2-3 for Stoops TY but looking better). Nick much better on road, 8-2 vs. line as visitor since 2011, 11-3 vs. points last 14 away from Tuscaloosa. Bama, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at COLORADO STATE...SJSU losing some momentum with Caragher, 1-2 last 3, so discounting old MacIntyre numbers. CSU has now covered four in a row TY and is 7-1 last 8 on board since late 2012. Rams have lost and failed to cover last two years vs. Spartans. CSU, based on recent trends.

IDAHO at ARKANSAS STATE...Vandals not exactly road warriors, 0-3 vs. line away TY, 2-9-1 last 12 vs. spread away from Kibbie Dome. ASU no covers last four for Harsin, but Red Wolves 9-4 laying DD since 2011 (1-0 TY). ASU, based on Idaho road trends.

MICHIGAN at PENN STATE...Hoke just 3-6-2 vs. line last 11 away from Ann Arbor. O'Brien 3-1 as dog LY and PSU 7-2 last nine vs. spread at home. Penn State, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE at NC STATE...NCS now 11-3 vs. points last 14 at Raleigh (3-1 for Doeren TY). Cuse however is 6-4-1 as dog since LY (1-1 for Shafer). Slight to NCS, based on extended home trends.

MEMPHIS at HOUSTON...UH 4-0 SU and vs. line TY and Cougs 15-6 as home chalk since 2009. Memphis however, 7-1 last eight on board for Justin Fuente. Slight to Memphis, based on extended home marks.

UAB at FIU...FIU 1-4 SU and vs. line TY and now 6-12 last 18 on board. Golden Panthers also 4-9 last 13 as dog. But UAB only 4-9 as road chalk since 20003 and 5-9 overall as chalk since 2010. Slight to FIU, based on UAB negatives.

MARSHALL at FAU...Carl Pelini 13-3 as dog with FAU since LY, though Owls only 2-4 vs. line as host since 2012 and 3-8 since new stadium opened in 2011. Doc Holliday 0-4-1 as visiting chalk since 2010. FAU, based on team trends.

KANSAS at TCU...Frogs 5-14-1 as chalk since 2011. No cover for TCU LY at Lawrence, either. But Weis 0-4 vs. line TY, 5-11 since LY, 25-44 last 69 at ND & KU since late 2005. TCU, based on Weis negatives.

MTSU at NORTH TEXAS...Home team has won and covered big last two years. UNT has covered last 3 in Denton. UNT, based on team trends.

ULM at TEXAS STATE...ULM skidding, 1-5 vs. line TY and 1-6 last 7 since late LY. Franchione 8-4 last 12 vs. spread. Texas State, based on recent trends.

BOISE STATE at UTAH STATE...USU 4-2 vs. line TY and 15-4 since LY even after BYU loss. Boise 20-8 as visiting chalk since 2008. Boise, based on extended trends.

OREGON STATE at WASHINGTON STATE...Road team has covered last 4 in series. Leach 6-1 last 7 on board since late LY. Riley 21-11 vs. line last 32 as visitor (counts '11 at Seattle vs. WSU). Slight to OSU, based on series trends.

TULSA at UTEP...Tulsa no covers first five TY, but has won and covered last two vs. UTEP. Miners 2-9 vs. points last 11 at Sun Bowl and 5-16-1 last 22 on board since late 2011. Slight to Tulsa, based on extended UTEP woes.

HAWAII at UNLV...Rebs have won and covered last three, a first in the Hauck era. UNLV 14-6-1 vs. line at Sam Boyd Stadium since 2010 for Hauck 4-2 as home chalk. UNLV, based on team trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31744 Followers:37
10/09/2013 05:01 PM

Rutgers at Louisville

October 9, 2013

One of the bigger games in the American Athletic Conference season is featured this Thursday on ESPN as Rutgers visits Louisville. This matchup closed the regular season last year with a BCS spot on the line this game will spell the end of what has been an entertaining recent rivalry with both teams moving on to bigger conferences next season. Here is a look at the Thursday night game to start off the new weekend in college football.

Matchup: Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Louisville Cardinals
Venue: Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky (FieldTurf)
Date: Thursday, October 10, 2013
Time/TV: 7:30 p.n. ET – ESPN
Line: Louisville -18, Over/Under 54 ½
Last Meeting: 2012 at Rutgers, Louisville (+3) 20-17

While this is not a long standing rivalry steeped in great tradition it may be one of the few matchups that will be missed from the Big East/AAC days as Rutgers heads to the Big Ten and Louisville to the ACC next season. There have been several notable games in this series including the 2006 Thursday night matchup with both teams 8-0 as #15 Rutgers upset #3 Louisville 28-25 in a classic game. Rutgers trailed 25-7 in that game but held Louisville scoreless in the second half. Led by Ray Rice and Kenny Britt the offense went from its own nine-yard line in the final minutes to set-up the game winning kick.

The 2007 meeting was also a great game with Louisville winning 41-38 though neither team had as much at stake. The last two years this series has also gone down to the wire with Louisville winning 16-14 in 2011 and with Teddy Bridgewater delivering a heroic comeback win last season despite playing with a broken wrist. Last year’s game was the regular season finale and the Louisville win created a four-way tie in the Big East at 5-2, a tiebreaker Louisville won to go to the Sugar Bowl.

Bridgewater has been the story this season as a Heisman candidate and a potential top NFL draft pick. He has completed nearly 72 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns and only one interception to lead one of the top passing offenses in the country. The running game has been solid but complimentary this season with three running backs sharing the bulk of the carries in the 5-0 start for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are the No. 1 team in the nation in fewest points allowed with less than seven points per game surrendered but every conversation regarding Louisville must start by acknowledging the extremely weak schedule.

The Cardinals are No. 8 in both polls this week, actually falling from No. 7 despite a 30-7 road victory last week at Temple. That will be a continuing problem as the team will likely plateau in the rankings as they will have a hard time moving past the elite teams in power conferences and one or even two loss teams could begin to pass them. One loss Georgia is already ahead of Louisville in the polls and the hopes of earning a shot at the national title are extremely remote even if the Cardinals finish 12-0. Louisville is still the heavy favorite to win the AAC and earn the automatic BCS bid however and last year they made the most of that opportunity with a 33-23 win over then #4 Florida in the Sugar Bowl.

The toughest stretch of the schedule is this week and next week for Louisville, hosting Rutgers in primetime with a chance to show off to voters on national television against the most credible opponent they have faced this season. Next Friday’s game with Central Florida may be the biggest of the season and the game most feel will decide the conference champion. Louisville gets both games at home but in three plus seasons under Charlie Strong eight of the 14 losses have come at home with five straight up losses as a favorite.

With Greg Schiano taking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coaching job after the 2011 season and a run of several successful seasons for Rutgers, expectations were certainly grounded for the continued success of the program. Kyle Flood was promoted to head coach from assistant head coach and he has been with the program since 2007. His first season was a success with Rutgers going 9-4 and they would have won the Big East title last season had they held off Louisville in the final game of the season. Rutgers had a notable win at Arkansas last season and finished up the season with a narrow loss to Virginia Tech in overtime at the Russell Athletic Bowl.

This year Rutgers is off to a 4-1 start, surprising many by nearly beating Fresno State on the road to open the season and then also beating Arkansas for the second straight season. Rutgers survived a wild finish last week to win at SMU as this will be a second straight road game for the Knights with substantial travel and the previous two road games for the team both went to overtime. The program has mainly been known for defense in recent years, particularly with stopping the run as they allowed just 97 rushing yards per game and just over 14 points per game last season. Those figures have deteriorated this season allowing 438 yards per game and almost 28 points per game but Rutgers is allowing just 5.0 yards per play. This year not many teams are scoring more however as Rutgers has averaged 40 points per game.

Rutgers junior quarterback Gary Nova is not in Bridgewater’s class but he has had a solid career though he has battled injuries. He has not been overly accurate with just over 58 percent completions this season but he has 13 touchdown passes already this season and has delivered some big late game moments, notably a fourth quarter comeback in the Arkansas game this season. Rutgers has had a tough break with running back Paul James going down with injury as he rushed for 573 yards in the first four games. He missed last week’s game and will be out until after next week’s bye week. Sophomore Leonte Carroo has been a pleasant surprise to lead the receiving corps with half of his catches going for touchdowns.

As this line suggests Louisville is expected to win convincingly to take command of the AAC race and this will be a big game for the Cardinals to prove that they deserve to be in the conversation among the top teams in the nation. Rutgers certainly looks on track for a third straight bowl trip and what would be an eighth bowl season in the last nine years for a program that greatly struggled in previous decades. This would be a season-making opportunity for the Knights and this series has certainly provided many memorable moments in recent years.

Last Meeting: These teams met in the final game of the regular season last year with a BCS spot on the line as Rutgers was 5-1 in Big East play and Louisville was 4-2. A Louisville win would force a tiebreaker scenario that the Cardinals appeared to have the edge in. Rutgers was a slight home favorite as Louisville’s star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was banged up with a broken wrist and an injured ankle and not expected to play. Bridgewater did not start and Rutgers started off the scoring with an 85-yard pass play. By halftime it was 14-3 with Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova connecting on another long pass play. Bridgewater came into the game and helped the Cardinals score twice in the span of 16 seconds of game clock late in the third quarter after a Rutgers fumble on the kickoff. Rutgers would tie the game in the fourth quarter but Nova would throw an interception in Rutgers territory to set up the Cardinals in great position with less than five minutes to go. The Cardinals were able to hit on a short field goal to take the lead with less than two minutes left and the defense held as the Cardinals wound up in the Sugar Bowl, where they would upset Florida.

Series History: These teams have played each of the last eight years and 10 times since 1984 with a 5-5 split and Louisville holding a slim 5-4-1 ATS edge. The series will end with both teams off to new conferences and Louisville has won and covered in each of the last three meetings. This will be the biggest spread in the series since 2005 and Rutgers is just 1-3 ATS when playing as the underdog.

Line Movement: The line opened at 16½ and has climbed, reaching 18½ at some outlets. The total has been slow to release but is projecting to be around 54 or 54½.

Rutgers Historical Trends: The Knights have played well on the road going 16-10-1 ATS since 2008 and 31-21-2 ATS since 2003. Since 2003 Rutgers is 10-3-1 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points as well. Only once since 2005 has Rutgers been an underdog this high, losing 35-14 at West Virginia to close the regular season in 2010 as 21-point underdog.

Louisville Historical Trends: The Cardinals are just 6-14 ATS in the last 20 games as a double-digit favorite and just 11-18 ATS as a home favorite since 2007. Louisville went on a 15-2 ATS run as a home favorite from 2004 to 2006 under Bobby Petrino as the longer range trends look more favorable but the Cardinals are just 9-14 ATS in home games under Charlie Strong, actually going just 15-8 S/U despite being favored in all but three of those games.

There are two additional Thursday night games this week:

San Diego State (-4) at Air Force: The Falcons may have their worst team in many years, sitting at 1-5 while posting lopsided losses in each of the last two home contests. San Diego State won by 19 at home in this matchup last season but it was a deceptive final as Air Force had a substantial yardage edge. This year only four FBS teams have allowed more yards per game than Air Force however. The Aztecs have won two in a row to recover from a 0-3 start to the season including last week beating a Nevada team that beat Air Force two weeks back. After facing the two worst rush defenses in the nation the last two games, this is another favorable matchup for the San Diego State offense. The trends show that Air Force is just 5-16 ATS at home since 2010 but San Diego State is just 3-9-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2004.San Diego State has covered in seven of the last 10 meetings in this series but they have lost S/U in three of the last four trips to Colorado Springs.

Arizona (+5½) at USC: There are certainly some unknowns for this game as USC has an opportunity to respond in its first game after the firing of Lane Kiffin. Arizona was a suspect 3-0 team with great rushing numbers before struggling in the Pac-12 opener at Washington two weeks ago. Washington certainly impressed last week so perhaps more credit should be given to the Wildcats for the respectable loss. Arizona beat USC last season at home in a wild 39-36 game that featured 1,200 total yards and the Wildcats are rushing for 5.2 yards per carry this season with some of the best rushing production numbers in the nation. The USC defense has looked excellent this season with the exception of the Arizona State game but with Notre Dame up next this is likely a bigger game on the schedule for the Wildcats who have had historical success in this series over the last two decades, typically in the underdog role. Arizona has covered in 10 of the last 14 meetings going back to 1996 but USC is actually 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as a home favorite despite the shaky results the last two seasons.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31744 Followers:37
10/10/2013 04:11 PM

Thursday College Action

October 10, 2013

RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (4-1) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (5-0) Line & Total: Louisville -19 & 57
Opening Line & Total: Cardinals -17.5 & 55

The 2012 Big East co-champions attempt to each go 2-0 in the new American Athletic conference when Rutgers visits unbeaten and eighth-ranked Louisville on Thursday night.

Last year, each of these teams was 5-2 in conference play with the Cardinals representing the Big East in the Sugar Bowl, where they defeated Florida 33-23. These two programs have played each other in each of the past eight seasons with Louisville coming out ahead, going 5-3 SU ATS, including 3-1 (SU and ATS) at home. Very close games have been a common trend between these teams. In 4-of-8 meetings, a field goal or less separated them, including a three-point Cardinals victory last year and a two-point victory for them in the last meeting at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in 2011. Rutgers is coming off a 55-52 triple OT victory over SMU in its AAC opener while Louisville hosted Temple and had an easy 30-7 victory. Although the Cardinals didn't cover that 33-point spread, they have still been dominant on the season, winning each of their games by at least 14 points and holding four of five opponents to seven points or less. This will be Louisville's toughest offensive opponent on the season though, as it has not faced a scoring offense ranked better than 67th in the nation. Although the Cardinals are large favorites at home in this match-up, the Scarlet Knights will look to show they are still a top team in their division.

Rutgers is coming off a thrilling victory at home against SMU on Saturday where it gave up the lead late, being outscored 21-0 in the third quarter, but rallied in overtime to secure its first AAC win. QB Gary Nova has been a large part of the Knights' 4-1 season so far. Over the season, Nova has thrown for 1,171 yards (8.3 YPA) with 13 TD and only 4 INT. His ability to secure the ball and keep drives going has led the Rutgers passing attack to 243.2 YPG (59th in nation). While this team does not do anything spectacular, they bring a dual-threat offense with the 60th-ranked rushing attack (179.6 YPG). RB Paul James has led the team in 2013 with 573 yards on 78 attempts (7.3 YPC) with 6 TD, but is doubtful for the Thursday night game with a leg injury. RB Justin Goodwin came into the SMU game with only seven carries on the season, but sparked the offense with 222 total yards (149 rushing, 73 receiving) and three total touchdowns. Star WR Brandon Coleman (2nd team all-conference in 2012) will look to get back into the swing of things as he has only 126 receiving yards over the past four games after a 94-yard, two-touchdown performance in the season opener. Rutgers lost four first team All-Conference defensive players from the 2012 season, and its difficulties have been clear, allowing 380 YPG and 27.6 PPG.

The Cardinals are riding high, as they have won seven straight games (5-2 ATS) dating to last year and have a margin of victory of 37.6 PPG on the season. Heisman hopeful QB Teddy Bridgewater has been on fire this year with 1,562 passing yards (10.8 YPA), 16 touchdowns and only one interception on the season. Bridgewater has thrown 4+ TD in three of the Cardinals first five games and has been sacked only four times all year. Bridgewater will be missing 2012 1st team All-Conference WR DeVante Parker (375 rec. yds, 6 TD) who is battling a shoulder injury. Picking up the slack will be WR Eli Rogers who has 279 receiving yards (18.6 average) and two touchdowns on the season. Helping out Bridgewater and the passing game will be the 58th-ranked rushing attack (181.2 YPG) led by the trio of HBs Senorise Perry, Dominique Brown and Michael Dyer combining for 753 yards (5.8 YPC) and eight touchdowns. Louisville features the nation's top-ranked scoring defense (6.8 PPG), but has yet to face a difficult offense, going up against the 119th-ranked offense (Temple) and 124th-ranked offense (FIU) in their past two games.

ARIZONA WILDCATS (3-1) at USC TROJANS (3-2) Line & Total: USC -6 & 49
Opening Line & Total: Trojans -6.5 & 49

Arizona squares off with Pac-12 rival USC on Thursday night as both teams look for their first conference win of the year.

It seems as if both the Wildcats and Trojans are moving in the wrong direction. Arizona started the season 3-0 against non-conference opponents, but suffered a lopsided 31-13 loss at Washington, allowing 244 rushing yards in the process. USC is coming off of a 62-41 blowout loss at Arizona State which left head coach Lane Kiffin without a job, and Ed Orgeron filling his spot in the interim. He'll be tasked with leading the Trojans (0-2 in Pac-12 play) likely minus injured star WR Marqise Lee, who is doubtful to play because of a knee injury. The Trojans have done well in this matchup in the past, going 7-2 straight up against Arizona since 1992, but have had trouble covering the spread (3-6 ATS). In the most recent meeting between these two programs in 2012, the offenses combined for over 1,200 yards of offense, but five USC turnovers led to a 39-36 Arizona win at home. The Wildcats have struggled mightily on the road recently with a 3-12 SU record over their past 15 road games. Each team has an outstanding rushing offense (Arizona 291 YPG, USC 191 YPG), so both will be looking to pound the football on the ground on Thursday night.

Arizona has gone with its strengths and slowly changed its identity to a run-heavy offense. Top HB prospect Ka'Deem Carey has led the nation's 9th ranked rushing offense (292 YPG) with 431 yards (5.9 YPC) and five touchdowns on the season and also contributes to the pass game with 82 receiving yards. Joining Carey in the rush attack is QB B.J. Denker, who has run for 280 yards (5.5 YPC) and six touchdowns on the season. Denker has not been expected to do much this season throwing the ball and has only passed for 111 YPG and 4.9 YPA with two touchdowns and two interceptions on the year. His two interceptions both came in the last game against Washington, which also happens to be the team's first loss of the season. No Wildcats receiver has caught more than nine passes through the first four games of the season with WR Garic Wharton leading the team with 117 receiving yards (14.6 average). The Arizona defense has done well on the season, giving up only 335 total YPG and 14.3 points per game (9th in FBS), but when facing a top-35 offense in Washington, they gave up 409 yards and 31 points.

The Ed Orgeron era for USC begins on Thursday night after the school cut ties with former head coach Lane Kiffin after a 21-point loss to ASU on national television. An even bigger loss than Kiffin in that game was their star WR Marqise Lee, who sprained his left knee and is doubtful for this game. Lee's likely absence will be severe, as he has caught 30-of-76 completions (40%) thrown by the Trojans this year, and is coming off two straight seasons of at least 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns. The man who will be searching for a new top target to throw to will be QB Cody Kessler who has thrown for 832 yards with 6 TD and 4 INT on the season. Kessler has been more involved in each of the past four games with his attempts rising from 13 to 17, to 26 and finally 29 times against the Sun Devils. USC features the 50th best rushing attack in college football (191 YPG), led by HB Tre Madden. In 110 attempts this year, Madden has 583 yards (5.3 YPC) and three touchdowns, one in each of the past three weeks. He has been very consistent so far this year rushing for over 90 yards in all five games on the season, including a season-high 151 yards against Washington State on Sept. 7. Trojans star LB Morgan Breslin (11 tackles, 4 sacks) is doubtful for this game with a hip injury, which could make it harder for the Trojans to slow down Arizona's fierce rushing game. Despite allowing 261 yards on the ground in its last game, USC still has the nation's 13th-ranked rush defense (100 YPG).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31744 Followers:37
10/10/2013 04:12 PM


Thursday, October 10

Rutgers at Louisville: What bettors need to know

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Louisville Cardinals (-19, 54)

Close victories over Rutgers in each of the last two seasons allowed Louisville to earn a share of the Big East title. As members of the American Athletic Conference, little is expected to change Thursday when the eighth-ranked Cardinals host the Scarlet Knights in the first and perhaps the only game between the schools as rivals in the newly formed league. While Rutgers is set to become a member of the Big Ten in 2014, Louisville will leave for the ACC.

A two-point win in 2011 over the Scarlet Knights sparked a 5-1 finish for the Cardinals and helped them secure a three-way tie for the conference title, while a three-point victory in 2012 forged a four-way tie and led to a Sugar Bowl triumph. Louisville is 5-0 for the second time in as many seasons in 2013 and has outscored its opponents 222-34. Rutgers has won four straight, but may find it difficult to recover on short rest after Saturday’s 55-52 triple-overtime win at Southern Methodist.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Louisville opened at -16.5 and has been bet up as high as -19. The total opened at 55 and has come down to 54.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 70s with clear skies and winds blowing NE at 2 mph.

ABOUT RUTGERS (4-1, 1-0 AAC, 2-3 ATS): The Scarlet Knights have scored 28 points or more in each of the first five games for the first time in school history. One of the major reasons for the offensive output has been the play of quarterback Gary Nova, who ranks second in the conference with 13 touchdown passes and has thrown only four interceptions. Two of Nova’s 16 interceptions last season came in a 20-17 loss to Louisville, including one near midfield late in the fourth quarter as Rutgers was driving for a potential game-tying field goal.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (5-0, 1-0, 3-2 ATS): While quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has looked every bit like the top NFL Draft pick he is expected to become (AAC-leading 16 touchdowns and 71.7 percent completion percentage), the Cardinals’ defense has been nearly as impressive. Louisville is allowing a Division I-best 6.8 points per game and has collected nine turnovers, which has helped lead to the nation’s sixth-best turnover margin (plus-1.4). Louisville coach Charlie Strong said wide receiver DeVante Parker is day-to-day after he injured his right shoulder in Saturday’s 30-7 victory at Temple.


* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Scarlet Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.


1. Bridgewater has thrown a touchdown pass in 17 consecutive games, tied with Dave Ragone for the most in school history.

2. Rutgers ranks 22nd in the country in scoring offense (40 points per game) after finishing 98th a season ago.

3. The Cardinals have outscored their opponents 127-3 in the first half.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31744 Followers:37
10/10/2013 04:14 PM


Thursday, October 10

Arizona at USC: What bettors need to know

Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans (-6, 47.5)

The Lane Kiffin era has ended and it will be interim coach Ed Orgeron running the team when USC hosts Arizona in Thursday’s crucial Pac-12 contest. Athletic director Pat Haden fired Kiffin after the Trojans suffered a 62-41 loss to Arizona State on Sept. 28 and Orgeron is looking to overcome a 0-2 start in conference play. Arizona is coming off a loss to Washington and needs a victory over USC to remain a factor in the Pac-12 South race.

Orgeron went 10-25 as head coach of Mississippi from 2005-07 and has made it a major priority to change the mood of the team. “I want our guys to believe and have a little fun,” Orgeron said. “One of the things we can do as a staff is get really close to our players, circle the wagons, have fun, and let the chips fall where they may.” Trojans receiver Marqise Lee (knee) could miss the game, which won’t sadden Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez too much due to Lee catching 16 passes for a Pac-12 record 345 yards against the Wildcats last season. “We didn’t have any answer for him last year,” Rodriguez said. “He got open, got involved, and we just couldn’t catch up with him.”

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE: Southern Cal opened as a 5-point favorite and moved to -6. The total opened at 48.5 and was bet down to 47.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 60s with clear skies and winds blowing west at 5 mph.

ABOUT ARIZONA (3-1, 0-1 Pac-12 South, 2-2 ATS): Junior running back Ka’Deem Carey is looking for his eighth consecutive 100-yard outing and has scored at least one touchdown in 17 of his last 18 games. Senior quarterback B.J. Denker is only a 50 percent passer and tossed his first two interceptions of the campaign in the loss to Washington but excels as a rusher (280 yards, team-high six touchdowns). An opportunistic defense has intercepted seven passes with junior safety Tra’Mayne Bondurant recording three – returning two for touchdowns – while freshman outside linebacker Scooby Wright has recorded a team-leading 28 tackles.

ABOUT USC (3-2, 0-2 Pac-12 South, 1-4 ATS): Lee has modest season totals of 30 receptions for 385 yards and was termed questionable by Orgeron on Monday, as was senior outside linebacker Morgan Breslin (hip), who has a team-best 7.5 tackles for loss. Senior running back Silas Redd (knee) could see action for the first time but sophomore Tre Madden (583 yards) has a firm grip on the starting job after topping 100 yards in four of five games. The 62 points allowed against Arizona State matched for worst in school history and was a shocking development considering the presence of stars like Breslin, junior safety Dion Bailey (team-high 28 tackles, two interceptions), junior defensive end George Uko (four sacks) and sophomore defensive end Leonard Williams (seven tackles for loss).


* Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Southern California.
* Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.


1. USC leads the series 28-8, but Arizona posted a 39-36 home win in last season’s meeting.

2. The Wildcats are allowing 14.3 points per game, ninth-best nationally.

3. Trojans sophomore QB Cody Kessler is completing 63.5 percent of his passes with six touchdowns against four interceptions.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31744 Followers:37
10/10/2013 04:14 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Thursday's Games

Louisville is 5-0 against a collection of stiffs, with only win by less than 23 points a 27-13 win (-14) over in-state rival Kentucky. Cardinals won last three games with Rutgers by 27-2-3 points. Scarlet Knight lost three of last four visits here, with favorites covering all four games- both their road games this year went OT (lost 52-51 at Fresno, won 55-52 at SMU five days ago). SMU was 45-71/484 passing vs Rutgers, and Louisville has a more diverse offense. Knights are 6-2 in last eight tries as road dog.

Short week for Air Force after flying cross-country and losing its rivalry game 28-10 at Navy; Falcons lost last three games to San Diego State by 19-14-2 points, in series where underdog is 10-5 vs spread in last fifteen meetings. Aztecs had extra day to prep after OT win vs Nevada Friday night; since 2004, they're 3-9-1 as a road favorite. Air Force has a very young team and is playing a backup QB; they're 0-2 as a home dog this year, losing 52-20 (+9.5) to Utah State and 566-23 (+4.5) to Wyoming.

Ed Orgeron makes his debut as USC's interim coach vs Arizona that has split last four meetings with Trojans; last six meetings were decided by 7 or less points in series where underdogs covered last eight meetings. USC lost last game 62-41 and Kiffin got fired, so team with very young QBs is shorthanded as far as offensive coaches. Arizona is 6-9-1 in its last 16 tries as a road underdog, losing 31-13 (+9) at Washington in only such game this year. Trojans are 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite, 1-2 this year, losing at home to Washington State , beating Utah State by 3.
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Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31744 Followers:37
10/10/2013 06:21 PM

By the way my GOY goes Saturday........So watch for it...

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/05/13 56-­43-­1 56.57% +­4350 Detail
10/04/13 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
10/03/13 5-­1-­0 83.33% +­1950 Detail

Totals 63-­46-­1 57.80% +6200

Thursday, October 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Rutgers - 7:30 PM ET Rutgers +19.5 500 POD # 2

Louisville - Over 55.5 500 POD # 1

San Diego State - 9:00 PM ET Air Force +4 500 POD # 4

Air Force - Over 54.5 500 POD # 5

Arizona - 10:30 PM ET Southern California -5.5 500 POD # 3

Southern California - Over 48 500 POD # 6

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31744 Followers:37
10/10/2013 06:26 PM

Rutgers (4-1) at (8) Louisville (5-0)

Thursday, October 10, 7:30 p.m. (et)

GAME NOTES: In the first part of a difficult two-game stretch for Louisville, the eighth-ranked Cardinals host the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in a critical American Athletic Conference battle at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.

The Scarlet Knights are carrying a four-game winning streak into this contest, though the most recent victory certainly wasn't an easy one. On the road against SMU the Scarlet Knights escaped with a 55-52 win in triple overtime thanks to a 17-yard touchdown run from Justin Goodwin. Rutgers is now 4-1 overall and 1-0 in-conference as it sets its sights on ruining Louisville's perfect season.

That mission for the Cardinals has been going well through the first five games. Louisville is sporting a 5-0 mark after posting a 30-7 win at Temple in the conference opener last weekend. It is the third time in the last 11 seasons that Louisville has started off 5-0. Louisville has won 16 of its last 18 games overall and each of its last four road contests.

The first of those four wins away from home was earned in the regular season finale last season against this same Rutgers squad. In that contest the 9-2 Scarlet Knights faced the 9-2 Cardinals with a chance to earn the Big East title outright. However, Gary Nova threw an interception near midfield with just over a minute to play allowing the Cardinals to escape with a 20-17 victory.

"When you get to the end of the year and you play in a championship game, because that's what it ended up being, and you come up a couple plays short I don't know that anybody needs to be reminded of that," Rutgers head coach Kyle Flood said, though he denied any extra motivation from the loss. "We have an opportunity to stay undefeated in the conference. I don't think we need any more motivation than that."

Rutgers leads the all-time series, 7-5.

Nova is still under center for the Scarlet Knights and will certainly be trying to make up for his last-minute mistake a year ago. This season Nova has still had a bit of an issue with turnovers (four interceptions) but he has been a more productive passer, throwing for 1,171 yards and 13 touchdowns. Nova still isn't completing passes as at a very high rate (83-of-142) and has been hounded by pressure, suffering 11 sacks already.

Although Brandon Coleman (15 receptions, 220 yards, two TDs), tagged as an NFL prospect due to his size and skill, leads the team in receptions, it has been Leonte Carroo who has been making the biggest plays in the passing game. Carroo (14 receptions, 291 yards) has brought in an AAC-leading seven touchdown passes. Carroo has been especially important late in games as six of those scores have come in the fourth quarter or later, including the pair he caught against SMU. Other targets Nova tends to rely on are tight end Tyler Kroft (14 receptions, 224 yards, two TDs) and Quron Pratt (13 receptions, 165 yards).

Goodwin really impressed in his first real chance as he totaled 149 yards and two scores on 24 carries against SMU. Goodwin, a true freshman, has been forced into a more prominent role in the offense with AAC-leading rusher Paul James sidelined with a leg injury that will have him out again on Thursday.

Defense was the calling card a year ago for the Scarlet Knights. This season Rutgers has shown more weakness in that area, allowing 27.6 points and 376.8 yards per game. However, Rutgers still plays the same aggressive style and is currently tied with Louisville for the conference lead in sacks (15), while ranking third in tackles for loss (37).

Steve Longa (50 tackles, 3.0 sacks) leads the team in total stops and is one of six players to have at least 3.0 tackles for loss already.

The Heisman campaign for Teddy Bridgewater continues to chug along after the Cardinals' quarterback hung up another impressive performance against Temple. Bridgewater completed 25-of-35 pass attempts for 348 yards and two scores against the Owls. He has completed 71.7 percent of his pass attempts this season for 1,562 yards and 16 touchdowns, against just one interception. Bridgewater has also thrown a touchdown pass in 17 straight games, a streak that will likely continue deep into this season.

Bridgewater and the Cardinals did suffer a big loss against Temple, even if it didn't show up on the scoreboard. Leading receiver DeVante Parker (21 receptions, 375 yards, six TDs) left the game with an apparent shoulder injury and is listed as doubtful for Thursday's games.

Losing Parker would be a big loss but with pass-catchers like Damian Copeland (15 receptions, 264 yards, three TDs), Eli Rogers (15 receptions, 279 yards, two TDs), Kai De La Cruz (12 receptions, 215 yards, two TDs) and Gerald Christian (16 receptions, 188 yards, three TDs), the Cardinals should be fine.

"We have enough receivers, we don't have the big play ability with DeVante where you can just throw the ball up in the red zone. We can put guys in place and let them go play," Louisville head coach Charlie Strong said of how Parker's possible absence would affect the offense.

In terms of running the ball the Cardinals rely on the trio of Senorise Perry (298 yards, four TDs), Dominique Brown (250 yards, two TDs) and Michael Dyer (205 yards, two TDs), with each getting plenty of work through the first five games.

Louisville has been just as effective on defense. Although it may not possess a player like Bridgewater that grabs the national headlines, the unit is leading the AAC in just about every defensive category including total defense (227.4 ypg), scoring defense (6.8 ppg) and opponent third down conversion rate (16-of-66).

Preston Brown (37 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks), Marcus Smith (7.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks) and Lorenzo Mauldin (8.0 TFL, 6.0 sacks) have helped the Cardinals create pressure and keep opposing offenses on the sidelines.

For Rutgers, regardless of what Flood says, this is clearly a meaningful game beyond its conference ties. Rutgers is one of a rare few in the conference that have any shot of challenging the Cardinals for the AAC crown. However, even with the Cardinals weakened with Parker out, the Scarlet Knights not having James is the bigger loss. Louisville should move to 6-0.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Louisville 31, Rutgers 17

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: