Bears (3-3) vs Buccaneers (4-2) (London)—Bears scored 30-34-39 points in their three wins, with a TD on defense or special teams in all three games- they scored 13-17-13 in losses. Bucs were outscored 41-3 in first half of their two road games this season- five of their six games were decided by 7 or less points. Chicago is 10-4-1 vs number in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points; Tampa Bay is 3-7-2 in its last 12. Teams used to be division rivals; Bucs are 3-2 in series since then, with last three meetings all decided by 3 points, the last two going OT. Bucs are 19-13 vs spread in game following their last 32 wins; Bears are 7-6 after their last 13 wins, but 0-2 this year. NFC North teams are 10-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South teams are 8-8. Bears are 3-6 in last nine pre-bye games (2-4 last six as pre-bye favorite); Bucs lost 35-7/38-13 in last two pre-bye games (2-7 last nine as pre-bye dog).
Redskins (3-2) @ Panthers (1-5) – Who gets starting nod at QB for Washington after Grossman’s 9-22, 4-INT nightmare Sunday? Carolina allowed 28+ points in all five losses; their only win came on rainy day here, only game they’ve been favored to win this year. Panthers are 7-3-1 vs spread last 11 times they were favored by 3 or less points; their defense is having trouble getting off field- opponents converted 19 of last 28 3rd down plays. Home side won last six series games, with Redskins losing 20-17/20-17 in last two visits here, their only losses in nine series games (eight of nine decided by 4 or less points). Carolina lost 21-7/23-6 in last two pre-bye games- they’re 0-5-1 as a pre-bye favorite. NFC East road teams are 5-2-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South home teams are 5-3, home favorites 3-2. Last four Washington games stayed under total, with totals of 34-27 in two road games; four of six Panther games went over.
Seahawks (2-3) @ Browns (2-3)—Mike Holmgren runs the Browns now; he ran Seahawk franchise for long time before that, so this game probably has little extra in it for Cleveland. Seattle is 7-20 vs spread in its last 27 games as road dog (3-7 if road dog of 3 or less points), 5-17 in its last 22 post-bye games- they covered last three games as an underdog, after losing first two games by combined score of 57-17. Hawks came east and upset the Giants before the bye- they have seven takeaways in their two wins (+3), none in three losses (-5). Browns scored 17-13-17 points in last three games, needing last-minute TD to beat the dreadful Dolphins; they’re 7-12-1 vs spread in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Cleveland has been outrushed in every game, by average of 50.2 yards- they’re 2-9 in last 11 games as home favorite, 0-3 this season. 6.0/5.4/5.1/4.3. Seattle won two of three series games, but teams last met in ’07.
Chargers (4-1) @ Jets (3-3)--- Jets are 0-3 vs teams with winning records, giving up 30+ points in all three games, but all three were on road; offense has total of 405 yards last two weeks, converting just 7 of 26 on third down, so huge edge at QB for San Diego, which has held four of five opponents to 275 or less total yards (Patriots gained 504 against Bolts). Lot of subplots here, with Tomlinson going against old team and Schottenheimer coaching against team his dad used to coach—Chargers fired Marty despite his almost taking them to Super Bowl. San Diego won six of last eight post-bye games, covering three of last four as post-bye dog. Gang Green won last meeting 17-14 at San Diego in ’09 playoffs; they’ve won four of last six series meetings, with two of four wins in playoff games. Jets are 4-8-1 in last 13 games as favorite of 3 or less points, San Diego allowed 17 or less points in all three home games, but allowed 35-24 in two games on foreign soil.
Texans (3-3) @ Titans (3-2)—Big game for sliding Houston club that lost three of last four games and has been outscored in second half of every game this year (total of 72-37 in last four games); loss of stars on both sides of ball (WR Johnson/DE Williams) proved critical in winnable game at Baltimore last week. Favorite covered all three Houston road games; Texans are 0-2 as road dog, losing 40-33 at Saints (+4), 29-14 (+7) at Baltimore. Tennessee gave up 14 or less points in each of its three wins, 16-38 in its losses- they’ve already beaten Ravens/Broncos at home, allowing 13-14 points. Houston is 3-2 in last five series games, after having been 2-11 in first 13 meetings; Texans lost seven of nine visits here, with five of seven losses by 7+ points. Houston has been lost three of last four games, Tennessee is 6-3 in last nine games as divisional home favorite- they won four of last five post-bye games. Five of six Houston games stayed under the total.
Broncos (1-4) @ Dolphins (0-5)—Miami is incredible 6-29 vs spread in last 35 games as home favorite; they’re honoring 2008 Florida Gators here, team whose starting QB was Tebow, who gets his 4th career NFL start here for struggling Denver, which is 0-7 in Miami, with five of seven losses by 10+ points. Fish are 0-2 at home, losing by 14-10 points; 0-5 teams don’t have much of home field edge, especially when opposing QB is college hero from that area. Broncos allowed 22-17 points in its wins, 23-49-29 in losses- Miami hasn’t scored more than 16 points in any of its last four games. Broncos are 3-6 in last nine games as home favorite, 1-1 this year (14-17 at Tennessee, 49-23 at Green Bay). Dolphins are favored for first time this season. Denver is 16-5 in its last 21 post-bye games; Fox was 5-1 in his last six post-bye games with Carolina. Four of five Denver games went over; last four Miami games stayed under.
Falcons (3-3) @ Lions (5-1)—Falcons have gone LWLWLW so far this year; they scored 30+ points in their wins, 12-13-14 in losses. Since 2008, they’re 6-7 as road underdogs. Detroit allowed 23+ points in three of last four games, and trailed all four at halftime. Atlanta is 1-2 on road, winning at Seattle, losing at Chicago/Tampa. Third straight home game for Lions, who were outrushed 203-66 last week and converted only 2 of 15 third down plays- they’re 26-31-2 in game following their last 59 losses. Falcons are 28-31-1 vs spread in game following their last 60 wins. Detroit is 6-4-1 in last 11 games as single digit favorite. Atlanta is 4-3 in last seven series games, after being 6-20 at one point; they’re 4-15 in Motor City, but this is their first visit since ’06. Three of Falcons’ last four games stayed under total. NFC South road teams are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. N FC North home favorites are 5-3.
Chiefs (2-3) @ Raiders (4-2)—Oakland lost QB Campbell (collarbone) for season last week, traded for Carson Palmer Wednesday, which leaves Boller as starter for this game; he’s not good. Raiders are 5-2 in last seven series games, with three of five wins by 3 points- their OT win here LY was first time KC lost in last eight visits, and first time Oakland swept season series since ‘01. KC won last two games after 0-3 start, scoring 22-28 points vs Vikings/Colts (combined record, 1-11). Silver/Black allowed 38-31 points in only two losses (Bills/Patriots, combined record, 9-3); they’re just 3-10 in last 13 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year. You’re reading Armadillosports.com. Chiefs lost last four post-bye games, with three losses by 11+ points. Raiders are 7-4 in last 11 pre-bye games- this is first time since ’05 they’re favored in pre-bye game (2-3 last five). Last three Oakland games stayed under the total; average total in last ten series games, 31.5.
Steelers (4-2) @ Cardinals (1-4)—When Pittsburgh hired Tomlin as coach, they passed over Steeler assistants Whisenhunt/Grimm, who went on to desert, where they won NFC in ’08 but lost Super Bowl in last minute to Steelers; this is their first meeting since. Cardinals lost last four games, three by four or less points- favorites covered Arizona’s last six post-bye games; Redbirds lost four of last five (0-4 as post-bye dog). Steelers are 1-2 on road, scoring 7-10 points in losses at Ravens/Texans, and slogging thru 23-20 win at Manning-less indy (trailed 13-10 at half). Pitt has only two takeaways this season, with an amazing (for a 4-2 team) minus-11 turnover ratio. Steelers are 11-17 in last 28 games as road favorites; Arizona is 9-4 in last 13 games as a home underdog. Redbirds are 1-1 at home, getting hosed by terrible non-fumble call at end of 31-27 loss to Giants. Three of last four Cardinal games stayed under total. NFC West underdogs are 6-9-1 vs spread in non-division games, 1-4-1 at home.
Rams (0-5) @ Cowboys (2-3)—Sad-sack St Louis been outscored 86-9 in first half of last four games; they’ve got guys coming in off street and starting at CB. Only one of their five losses was by less than 12 points- they’re 6-7 vs spread in last 13 games as double digit dog. Last 11 Dallas games were decided by 4 or less points- Pokes’ only wins this year were by 3-2 points; they’re 1-9-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a favorite, 4-8 in last dozen games as double digit fave. Addition of WR Lloyd should help St Louis offense right away, since he played for McDaniels last two years in Denver. NFC East home favorites are 1-5 vs spread in non-division games; NFC West underdogs are 6-9-1, 5-5 on foreign soil. Home team lost six of last eight series games, with Rams winning four of last five visits here, but impossible to endorse visitors until they at least compete for an entire 60-minute game.
Packers (6-0) @ Vikings (1-5)—Green Bay is 7-3 in last ten series games, winning 28-24/31-3 in LY’s series; average total in last five series games is 51.6, but just 44.3 in last five in Metrodome (Pack 5-3 in last eight visits). Rookie QB Ponder gets start for Vikings after dreadful 39-10 loss last week in Chicago; McNabb looks washed-up, so might as well find out if the kid can play. Minnesota is 1-5, but with only one loss by more than seven points; they’re 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as home underdog. Packers coasted last week, are 5-1 vs spread this year, 8-5 in last 13 games as road favorite- their only non-cover this year was at Carolina, when Panthers covered thru back door late. League-wide, home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in divisional games this season, but Vikings have been outscored in second half of every game this year (outscored by total of 100-29). Packers are 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games as pre-bye favorite.
Colts (0-6) @ Saints (4-2)—First series meeting since New Orleans won improbable Super Bowl title two years ago; this game was put in primetime because Peyton Manning is from Crescent City, but he ain’t playing- winless Colts are 1-2 as road dogs, losing at Houston (7-34, +8.5), Tampa (17-24, +10), Cincinnati (17-27, +7). Indy has actually been very competitive in every game but the opener, but they’ve worn down in second half, outscored 71-34 in second half of last five games. Saints are 13-9-1 vs spread in last 23 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year, beating Texans (40-33)/Bears (30-13). Payton had broken leg/torn MCL operated on Monday, will call plays from press box, but he also missed two days of game-planning NFC south home teams are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South underdogs are 5-8, 3-6 on road. Four of Colts’ last five games stayed under total. Red flag for Saints are four takeaways in six games- they haven’t had a game yet with 2+ takeaways.
Ravens (4-1) @ Jaguars (1-5)—Bully Ravens (four wins this year by 15+ points) against rookie QB playing on team that lost last five games, with three of five losses by 10+ points. Baltimore is 7-1 in last eight series games after losing first eight to expansion Jags- they’re still just 2-5 in last seven visits here, with last win 10 years ago, and over last decade are just 5-10 as non-divisional road favorite. Ravens have superior record in game after bye, but last four years, they lost second game after the bye. Jags scored 13 or less points in four of five losses (five TD’s, 26 3/outs on 58 drives); they’re 10-19 vs spread in game after their last 29 losses. Ravens are 23-17-2 vs spread in game after their last 42 wins. Baltimore is allowing 76.6 rushing yards/game, held last three foes to 3.6./3.0/4.9 yards/pass attempt. Jaguars have been held under 4.0 ypa in three of last five games. Five of six Jacksonville games stayed under total; four of five Raven games went over, with Baltimore scoring 35-37-34-29 in its wins.
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