coleryan Posts:16255 Followers:21
09/22/2013 10:16 AM

Texans @ Ravens (+2.5) -- 1 p.m.

Flacco at home: 36-7 SU (22-21 ATS)

Only 12th time since 1980 that defending Super Bowl champs are home underdogs.

Only 3rd time Ravens home underdogs in last 4 seasons.

Last time Ravens played Texans, worst lost of Jim Harbaugh’s career.

Texans have covered 8 straight when spread has been less than a field goal (favorite or dog).

  • Last 7 Days Record: 6-5-0
coleryan Posts:16255 Followers:21
09/22/2013 10:16 AM

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals - Open: 48.5, Move: 50.5

The Bengals running game could be hitting its stride as both Gio Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis had very strong performances against Pittsburgh in Week 2. The Packers have appeared in two high-scoring affairs and are 2-0 O/U to start the season.

"Heavy majority of betting public is in love with the Over here," says Perry. "With 89 percent of cash on the Over, it has gone from 48.5 to 50.5."

  • Last 7 Days Record: 6-5-0
coleryan Posts:16255 Followers:21
09/22/2013 10:16 AM

- The Washington Redskins defense is dead last in the NFL allowing 511.5 yards per game and third-last in the NFL allowing 71 points. Skins host the Lions with a total of 48.5.

- The Lions are 0-4 ATS in the previous four meetings in Washington. Matchup is currently listed as a pick.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 6-5-0
coleryan Posts:16255 Followers:21
09/22/2013 10:17 AM

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-19, 40.5)

Chad Henne will again start at quarterback and has yet to be intercepted while completing 63.6 percent of his passes. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew (72 yards, 2.9 average) injured his left foot in the loss to Oakland and is questionable, which means Jordan Todman (nine yards on six carries) is in line for more playing time. Middle linebacker Paul Posluszny has a team-high 19 tackles for a defense allowing 316 yards per game. However, the unit has forced only one turnover and recorded just four sacks.

Seattle has a league-best seven takeaways (four fumbles, three interceptions) and is allowing a league-low 113 passing yards per game. Sherman has seven interceptions in his last seven home games and the pass defense figures to get even better if starting cornerback Brandon Browner (hamstring) is available for the first time this season. Quarterback Russell Wilson (462 yards, two touchdowns) is off to a pedestrian start and running back Marshawn Lynch (141 rushing yards) is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.

LINE: Seattle opened as a 20-point fave and is currently -19. The total opened at 41 and is 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jaguars (+9.0) + Seahawks (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -20
WEATHER: There is a 92 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow from the south at 14 mph toward the north end zone.
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Seahawks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 8-0 in Seahawks last eight games in September.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 6-5-0
coleryan Posts:16255 Followers:21
09/22/2013 10:18 AM

More on this later

New England TE Rob Gronkowski is doubtful Sunday. TE Zach Sudfeld is probable. RB Brandon Bolden is questionable.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 6-5-0
coleryan Posts:16255 Followers:21
09/22/2013 10:18 AM

Not only more touches, but he will get the start


  • Last 7 Days Record: 6-5-0
coleryan Posts:16255 Followers:21
09/22/2013 10:19 AM


Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -6.5
Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Vikings


Public perception: All we've been hearing the past few days after the Browns traded running back Trent Richardson to the Colts is that they've thrown in the towel, and the public is certainly betting that way.

Wiseguys' view: This line opened Vikings minus-3.5 on Sunday afternoon (the same as the advance line from last week at the LVH SuperBook) after it looked like Brandon Weeden would be replaced by Jason Campbell, but when it was announced that Brian Hoyer would be the starter instead, it ballooned to 5.5. The news of the Richardson trade pushed it to 6.5, so wiseguys who grabbed an earlier line are happy with their position, but they've probably stopped buying.

Tuley's Take: While Richardson is a good player, I'm not sure his loss and the move to Hoyer at quarterback is worth a full field goal. However, I'm not looking to back the Browns either.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Vikings under a touchdown, but Browns at 7 or higher).

  • Last 7 Days Record: 6-5-0
coleryan Posts:16255 Followers:21
09/22/2013 10:19 AM

Still, with Upset Watch we set ourselves a rule to pick games with a spread of at least a field goal, and we're sticking to it. So let us not hear talk of the Atlanta Falcons getting two points in Miami! Based on FO stats, the most likely upsets of the week (with a minimum line of three points) are:

• Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Minnesota Vikings

• Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles

• St. Louis Rams (+3) at Dallas Cowboys

• San Diego Chargers (+3) at Tennessee Titans

  • Last 7 Days Record: 6-5-0
coleryan Posts:16255 Followers:21
09/22/2013 10:20 AM

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins - Open: -3, Move: -1

The Redskins haven't gotten off to the best start and the 1,023 yards conceded on defense is second last only to Philadelphia's 1,315. Lions QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson could be in for some big stats Sunday afternoon.

"Despite fact that Reggie Bush is dinged up, wiseguys like the Lions here, moving the line from +3 to +1," said Perry.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 6-5-0
coleryan Posts:16255 Followers:21
09/22/2013 10:20 AM

Rams @ Cowboys (-4) -- 1 p.m.

Underdog playing 2nd straight road game off a loss: 178-111-3 (62% starting in 2003)

Last 4 seasons: the underdog has covered 72% of Dallas games (36-14 ATS) . . . now 50 games!

Jeff Fisher is 86-54 ATS (61%) in his coaching career as an underdog.

Cowboys have covered only 4 of 20 games as a home favorite the prior 3 seasons

Rams have gained more yards than Cowboys, and given up up less yards (+146 in net)

  • Last 7 Days Record: 6-5-0