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insideman
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Slovan B - Nitra (Slovakian league)

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On 09/18/2013 07:06 AM in Soccer
SLOVAN BRATISLAVA – NITRA (Slovakian league)
Found this preview on Betprepare and seems like a reasonable bet..think it's worth a shot ;)

Nitra was a good customer to the Slovan's players in the last season as well, and they aparently had a better team then. This current team is, not to use an uglier word, horrible. The dilemma regarding this game was this: home team's win with more than 2.5 goals in the game (bwin@1.75) or more than 2.5 home team's goals. I decided for the second option, because even the first one would hardly pass without Slovan scoring three goals, since Nitra's offense is pretty bad. And Unibet is paying really well for this second option. Yes, you could always say why would they chase the third goal if they're 2-0 in the lead? They didn't have to do that last season either, but they won at home with 4-0 and 5-1, and 3-0 in an away game. Slovan is the most potent offensive team in the league, and after two games in front of empty stands, they will be playing in front of supporters again, and that is definitely an extra motive. They've already gone over this margin twice this season, they stayed under three times, but they missed everything against DAC, and the game against Senice was a derby. And they were up 2-0 against ViOn in front of empty stands. But, more important thing for me right now is what Nitra's defense looks like - in four out of five away games they conceded four goals (Trencin, Kosice, Zilina and Dukla BB). They were under that only against equally bad DAC, they conceded only one goal and lost.

Bet: Home team total goals over 2,5
Odds: 2.10
Bet smart or die poor ;)
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