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A real nice Daily Double last night to start off the weekend. Not going to be around much on Friday but back all weekend.
Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend......
13) Miami Dolphins are 6-29 vs spread in their last 35 games as a home favorite; they’re honoring the 2008 Florida Gators Sunday, when that team’s QB is now starting for the Broncos. This is Tebow’s 4th NFL start. Broncos have never won (0-7) in Miami.
12) Vikings turn to rookie Ponder at QB against rival Packers, after their dismal performance in Chicago last week. Tough way for the young man to break in. Curious to see how he does.
11) Will warmer weather and the DH give the World Series more offense? Don't want to hear anything about games being boring; first two games of this World Series have been classic, old-school baseball. Good stuff.
10) When the Steelers hired Mike Tomlin as head coach, they shunned assistant coaches Whisenhunt/Grimm, who now call Arizona home. This is teams’ first meeting since Super Bowl three years ago.
9) Michigan State-Wisconsin is Game of Year in Big Dozen; meanwhile, NC State is a 5.5-point underdog at Virginia. Wonder how the Wolfpack would be doing if they still had Russell Wilson? Wonder if Tom O'Brien will still have a job next season?
8) USC is a 9-point underdog at Notre Dame, in a night game. Always curious why this game is at the end of the year when its in LA, but in October when its in South Bend?
7) M Resort in Las Vegas put out spreads on every NFL game back when the schedule came out; wonder what their spread was on this week’s Falcon-Lion game? Bet it wasn’t Detroit, -4.
6) Would you lay 3.5 points with a team starting Kyle Boller at QB? Nope, me either. Wonder what the commish would say if Carson Palmer actually plays some for the Raiders Sunday? Wouldn’t put it past Silver and Black to have slipped Palmer a playbook a few months ago, figuring this trade might eventually happen.
5) Mike Holmgren’s old team (Seattle) visits his new team (Cleveland). Seahawks covered only three of their last 12 road games.
4) Trap game for Oklahoma State at Missouri, after their big win at Texas last week. Cowboys do score a lot of points, but Tigers generally play lot better at home. State has covered nine in a row as road favorites.
3) Does the NFL make money off these London games? They must or they wouldn’t do it, right?
2) Sean Payton has to coach from the press box after breaking his leg last week. Wonder if he’ll find it easier to call plays when he can see whole field from upstairs?
1) Nine of 13 NFL games this week have pointspreads of 4 or less points. Should be a fun Sunday.
So here you go. Lets have a great day. I gotta get on my soapbox for a minute. This entire season has been filled with
big favorite after big favorite winning and covering. The public has been killing it since week 1 and I think its time that things start turning around.
If you have followed the express at anytime you have to have some sense of money management. One game, one weekend, one day cannot destroy everything you have done. Too many guys will bitch about a game or a bad break when in effect they should be playing no more or less on that one game then all the others they have been playing. Of course when you are winning you wager a bit more but it goes the same way. When you lose dont chase, bet less and when things turn around you are still in decent shape to make a nice profit.
So look out moving forward with a lot of dogs cashing a ticket and if you are playing favorites be very very careful.
WASHINGTON STATE -3
Will also be playing them on the money line
Saturday's Dirty Dozen: Clearing out a cluttered mind..........
12) After a horrendous 48-12 loss at Arizona Thursday, a game that also included a brawl and two UCLA teammates fighting with each other after the brawl, it’s a safe bet that next fall we’ll have Rick Neuheisel, studio analyst on our TVs. Maybe even before next fall. It is inconceivable that he won’t get fired after that debacle in Tucson.
11) Aaron Rodgers’ brother gets his first start at QB for Vanderbilt this week, against Army, which is an easier way of breaking in that Christian Ponder got with the Vikings—his first NFL start is against the defending champ Packers.
10) Week 7 of NFL has nine games with a pointspread of 4 or less points, but no games matching teams with winning records. Its weird to me that the word “pointspread” doesn’t get thru my spell check, because “thru” does. Go figure.
9) Bet the St Louis media is thrilled they won’t miss the Ram-Cowboy game Sunday, with the World Series being across the street from Jerry World. OK, maybe they’re not thrilled.
8) When do we find out if CC Sabathia opted out of the last four years (and $92M) of his contract with Bronx Bombers? After what Cliff Lee got last winter, its hard to believe he won’t opt out.
7) Rumors have the Red Sox willing to eat most of John Lackey’s remaining $45.5M (over three years) just to get him out of Boston, where he is now pretty much hated after Clubhouse-gate. San Diego could be a landing spot; Bud Black is Lackey’s old pitching coach from Anaheim.
6) ESPN’s Merrill Hoge had a good story this week about being in a college All-Star game and waiting for a shuttle bus from the airport with a bunch of players, one of whom was Jim Harbaugh. When told the shuttle was running late, everyone was cool except Harbaugh, who wigged out on the volunteer running things. Not everyone is a nice person, and to be honest, being nice isn’t a quality you need to be a winning coach.
5) This guy Jim Crane wants to buy the Astros, but he also wants the purchase price reduced by $50M because MLB wants the Astros to move to the American League. Crane figures with more West Coast games on TV (games from Seattle/Oakland replacing games in Chicago-St Louis-Milwaukee-Pittsburgh), he’ll get lower TV ratings and will lose some money that way. Or maybe he just saw the Astros play this year and figures he was overcharged in the first place.
4) Eldrick Woods is 121st on the PGA Money List this year; he was 68th last year and is currently ranked 55th in the world. Why is he on the Presidents’ Cup team? Greg Norman/Geoff Ogilvy tried to drum up interest in the event this week by criticizing Woods’ selection to the team, but they should be happy. It probably helps their team’s chances of winning.
3) Woods is also dangerously close to not being in the world’s top 64 players, which would bounce him from the Match Play tournament this coming winter. Imagine being the top-ranked player in the world and having to play Woods in the first round if he winds up as the #64 player? It could happen.
2) Good news for the Iona basketball team; Arizona transfer Momo Jones is eligible to play for the Gaels this season. He should be terrific in the MAAC. Funny how lot of kids who transfer suddenly come up with sick relatives. Just a coincidence, I’m sure.
1) Let me get this straight; Jed Hoyer worked for the Red Sox for seven years, then went to San Diego as GM, where he handed his friend Theo Epstein one of the best players in baseball, Adrian Gonzalez, for three prospects who aren't very good (top prospect Anthony Rizzo hit .141 this year. .141.) Casey Kelly was shaky in the Texas League this year, his second year at the AA level. In fairness, he is still pretty young. .
So had the Padres kept Gonzalez thru this season, and they could have, because his contract wasn't too expensive, then he would've walked this winter and San Diego would have gotten two #1 draft picks, but instead they've got Kelly-Rizzo-Fuentes, three Boston draft picks who haven't panned out yet.
Looks lot like Hoyer bailed his boy Theo out of a jam, then when Theo bolted for Wrigleyville, he plucked Hoyer to be his assistant. Again. Only they both have better titles now. The Padres still have the prospects that Hoyer stuck them with in exchange for Gonzalez. Doesn't seem right.
Illinois lost first game last week, getting outrushed 211-116; they're -6 in turnovers in Big Dozen games (2-1) with wins by 3-21 points. Purdue is 1-1 in league play, running ball for 379 yards since getting crushed 38-10 by Notre Dame three weeks ago- they're 5-7-1 in last 13 games as home dogs. Illini is 1-4 in last five games as road favorites. Favorites are 5-3 in Big Dozen games when spread is single digits. Four of Illinois' six lined games stayed under the total.
Underdog covered five of last six Cincinnati-South Florida games, with Bearcats winning four of last five- they won 34-17/38-33 in last couple visits here. You're reading armadillosports.com. Cincinnati won its last four games, allowing 11 ppg, but none of victims are any good- they're 0-5 as road underdogs under Jones. USF scored 17-10 points in losing last two games, both on road- they're 3-5 as home favorites under Holtz. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Big East conference games with single digit spread.
Clemson is 7-0, covering their last five games; they're 4-0 as favorites in Death Valley this year, 10-5 overall under Swinney. Tigers won five of last seven games vs North Carolina, with faves 6-3 vs spread in series; Tar Heels lost three of last four visits here, this is their first visit since '06. Carolina is 5-2 but 1-2 in ACC, allowing 35-30 points in its losses; they're 6-3 in last nine games as road underdogs. Home favorites are 5-6 vs spread in ACC games.
Cowboys had big win at Texas this week; they've covered nine games in row as road favorites, but they've also allowed 23+ points in each of last four games. Missouri is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road- they've played three stiffs at home; Tigers are 2-0 as underdogs this year, 6-7 as home dogs the last decade. Underdogs are 4-3 SU in last seven OSU-Mizzou games, as five of seven games were decided by 7 or less points. Cowboys are an amazing +13 in turnovers over last four games, with 17 takeaways.
Cal allowed 31-43-30 points in losing last three games, outscored 49-12 in second half; they're playing home games in San Francisco this year, as their stadium in Berkeley is being refurbished- they've covered 14 of 17 as a home favorite (1-0 so far this year). Utah (+3) beat Bears 37-27 in Poinsettia Bowl in '09; this is teams' first meeting as Pac-12 rivals. Utes would be 3-0 as road dogs this year, if not for blocked FG/TD by USC on last play of that game. Pac-12 home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in games where spread is less than 20.
Kansas State won last four Saturdays as an underdog, now are favored in rivalry game at Lawrence, where they won 59-7 (-3) LY, their first win in last four visits, and just second cover in last 13 tries as road favorites. Kansas is horrible, allowing 57 ppg during 4-game losing streak; even in their last win, they gave up 42 points. Jayhawks are 3-8 in last 11 games as a home underdog, 1-1 this year. Big 12 double digit favorites are 2-4 so far this season.
Oregon State won five of last seven games vs Washington State; Coogs covered once in last four games as series favorite. Both teams are 1-2 in Pac-12 games; OSU is allowing 29.7 ppg in league games, WSU 33 ppg. Road teams are 6-4 vs spread in Pac-12 games with single digit spread, but this game is in Seattle, but I guess Wazzu is still home side. Last three Beaver games went over total; last three Coog games stayed under. Oregon State was outscored 59-31 in second half of last three games.
Penn State won its last four games vs Northwestern, last three by 14-21-26 points; they won four of last five visits here, but only one of the four was by more than 5 points, as dogs covered four of the five games. Lions won last five games but covered only one of the five, with three wins by 6 or less points- they're 9-3 in last twelve games as road favorites, 0-2 this year. Wildcats are 12-8 in last 20 games as a home underdog. In LY's game, Northwestern (+6.5) led 21-0, wound up losing 35-21.
Notre Dame (+4.5) beat USC 20-16 LY, its first win in last nine tries vs Trojans; USC won its last four visits here-- underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games played here. Irish won last four games, scoring 35.8 ppg; they ran ball for 287-266 yards last two weeks. ND is 2-1 as home favorite this year, but since '03, they're 14-26-2. Over last decade, USC is 6-3 as road underdogs. Pac-10 non-conference road underdogs are 3-7 vs spread so far this season.
Southern Miss won 28-7/28-12 in its two C-USA meetings with SMU, but teams haven't met since '08; Eagles are 10-8 as home favorites under Fedora, 1-1 this year. SMU is 16-12-1 in last 29 games as road dog; they won at TCU three weeks ago. C-USA home favoritea are 4-7 vs spread in conference play. Mustangs won last five games despite a -7 turnover ratio in those games- they scored 42-40-38 points last three games, but Southern Miss scored 30-48-63 in winning its last three games.
Stanford won five of last six games vs Washington, winning last three by combined score of 110-42; favorites covered Huskies' last three visits to the Farm. Cardinal won/covered all six games, with 45-19 win vs UCLA closest game they've played. 5-1 Washington's only loss this year was 51-38 (+17) at Nebraska, so they'll compete here; they've covered last five games, are 4-2 in last six games as road dog. Pac-10 home favorites of 15+ points are 4-1 vs spread this season.
LSU has three key guys suspended here, Auburn is starting different QB so lot of issues on both sides. Home favorites are 8-2 vs spread in SEC games this year; SEC favorites of 14+ points are 7-1 this year. Auburn lost last five visits here, going 2-3 vs spread- they had 440 rushing yards in 24-17 (-5.5) home win vs LSU LY. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. LSU covered four of last five games, winning its last four games by 26+ points, but Mathieu being out is big loss.
Home side won last six Wisconsin-Michigan State games, as underdogs covered four of last five series games, with three of last four decided by 8 or less points. Badgers lost last three visits here by 10-1-35 points; the average total in last four series games played here, 58.5. Spartans beat Ohio State/Michigan last two games, which doesn't happen much; they are just 2-5-2 in last nine games as home dog. Wisconsin is 8-6-1 as road favorite under Bielema; this is their first true road game this year. You're reading armadillosports.com. Single digit favorites are 4-2 in Big Dozen games so far this year.