cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
10/19/2011 06:40 PM

New York Jets Host Rested San Diego Chargers

San Diego has covered just one of its last six meetings with the Jets.
The San Diego Chargers (4-1) have always been apt to sleepwalk through early-season games since Norv Turner arrived as head coach in 2007.

But we don’t think we have to worry about the Chargers being flat this weekend.

Indeed, San Diego’s trip to MetLife Stadium in the New Jersey Meadowlands for Sunday’s 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff against the host New York Jets (3-3) is anything but another ho-hum October game for the Bolts.

Instead, it’s about revenge.

The Chargers, now listed a 2-point favorites at most Las Vegas betting outlets, with a total at 43½ or 44 depending upon where one shops, have yet to forget about their bitter playoff loss at the hands of the Jets at the conclusion of the 2009 campaign.

To refresh memories, San Diego entered the playoffs that campaign as the AFC’s top seed after recording a 13-3 regular-season mark. After a first-round bye, the Bolts were rated as solid 8½-point favorites in the Division Round against the visiting Jets, who had won at Cincinnati by a 20-10 count in the previous week’s AFC Wild Card Round.

San Diego, however, was unable to put the Jets away when it had its chances that afternoon at Qualcomm Stadium. Up 7-0 at the half, the Chargers saw the Jets cut the lead to 7-3 in the third quarter. Failing to capitalize on a subsequent New York turnover early in the fourth quarter, San Diego quickly gave the ball right back when QB Philip Rivers was intercepted by safety Jim Leonhard, who returned the pick to the Bolts’ 16. From there, Mark Sanchez led the Jets into the end zone with a 2-yard TD toss to Justin Keller, putting the New Yorkers in front.

Later in the fourth quarter, the Jets sealed the game when Iowa rookie RB Shonn Greene busted the longest TD run in franchise history, a 53-yarder, to give Rex Ryan’s team an unassailable 17-7 lead. A late Rivers TD sneak cut the deficit to 17-14, but the Jets were able to run out the clock thanks to some tough running by vet Thomas Jones.

Some AFC West observers claim the Bolts went into a deep funk after the game, a bitter postseason exit reminiscent of a similar failure against Bill Belichick’s Patriots after the 2006 season that cost head coach Marty Schottenheimer his job. San Diego stumbled through much of 2010, missing the playoffs, and some insiders believe the Chargers have been waiting to exorcise those playoff demons for the past 21 months.

Sunday could be their opportunity.

Fundamentals suggest San Diego, well-rested after last week’s bye, has a good chance at gaining its pound of flesh. The combination of a solid offensive line and QB Rivers’ quick release should negate some of pass-rush pressure Ryan’s stop unit is likely to unleash. Sources say Rivers has been working closely over the past week with Turner on improved reads, looking to improve upon his uncharacteristic seven picks thus far.

Moreover, the Bolts are starting to get some good balance offensively with second-year ex-Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews (413 YR & 4.9 ypc) now providing a dangerous infantry diversion. New PK Nick Novak has also converted on all 11 of his field goal tries this season.

The week off also gave Rivers a chance to heal sore ribs and increased the likelihood that TE Antonio Gates will be healthier and more productive after battling plantar fascitis since the preseason.

Meanwhile, AFC East sources are not convinced that the Jets’ 24-6 Monday Night win over struggling Miami is indicative of a "buy" signal for Ryan’s team. The Jets blew hot-and-cold on offense all night and needed a franchise-record 100-yard interception return for a TD by DB Darrelle Revis to jump-start the team late in the first quarter.

As for QB Mark Sanchez, his efforts continue to be unconvincing, with his passing rating among the lowest for starting QBs in the league. Sources also indicate there remains some friction in the NY clubhouse after WR Santonio Holmes called out the offensive line following a recent three-game losing streak.

The win over Miami also might not be an indicator that the Jets’ defense is where Ryan wants it to be at this stage, either. Remember, New York had allowed 30 points or more in three straight games prior to the success vs. the impotent Dolphins on Monday night.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
10/19/2011 06:42 PM

Green Bay Packers Laying Nine At Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay has won and covered seven of the last 10 vs. the Vikings.
The Green Bay Packers are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL, and will look to stay that way this Sunday afternoon when they head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings.

The Don Best odds screen currently lists Green Bay as a 9-point road favorite. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) Sunday and will be televised nationally on FOX.

As would be expected in a game with a 9-point road favorite, the discrepancy between Green Bay and Minnesota is quite clear on the field this season, and it is also reflected in the Don Best Linemakers Poll. Green Bay is ranked first in the NFL in this week’s poll while Minnesota is tied with Denver near the bottom of the league at 26th.

Green Bay (6-0) has been a model of consistency through the first six games of 2011. With a 5-1 record against the spread, the league’s top scoring offense (averaging 32.8 points per game) and the league’s seventh overall defense (allowing just 19 points per game), there’s little not to like about the defending champions.

Aaron Rodgers continued his assault on opposing team’s defenses last week against St. Louis, passing for 310 yards and three touchdowns. Rodgers leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (17) and quarterback rating (122.5), and is third in passing yards with 2,031. He looks to be well on his way to adding an NFL MVP award to his already impressive career resume.

Minnesota (1-5) followed up its first win of the season with a dud of a performance last Sunday night at Chicago, losing 39-10 as a 2-point underdog. Star running back Adrian Peterson managed only 39 yards against the Bears’ stingy defense. The Vikings fell to 2-3-1 ATS with the loss.

Down big late in the game, Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier decided to officially pull the plug on the Donovan McNabb experiment and turn the ball over to rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. The Florida State grad went 9-for-17 with 99 yards passing, and will get his first career start this week against Green Bay.

As if all the signs on the field this season didn’t already point towards the Packers, the recent history between these two NFC East rivals does. Green Bay is 7-3 both SU and ATS against the Vikings, including two wins and covers last year. The Packers beat Minnesota 31-3 when they faced them on the road last season.

Green Bay’s 31-3 win was the first time the total had gone ‘under’ between these two teams since 2007. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in the last six games between the Vikings and the Packers with four of those games featuring 52 or more points.

The total for this Sunday’s game is currently set at 46 ½.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
10/19/2011 06:43 PM

Steelers And Cardinals In Super Bowl Rematch

Pittsburgh is favored by four over Arizona, with Sunday’s total at 42.
It was only three years ago that the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals met up in Super Bowl XLIII, one of the best Super Bowls in recent memory. Now, the two are just trying to get their footing to get back into the playoffs as they head into their Week 7 NFL betting battle this week at the University of Phoenix Stadium.

Kickoff is slated for 4:05 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage available on CBS.

Pittsburgh (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) enters this game ranked No. 6 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll. However, there are definitely some causes for concern right now for the fans of black and gold, and the normally square Steelers might not be the right side in this game as a result.

There are still some major problems across the offensive line for Pittsburgh. It won't have Doug Legursky in this game, though both Marcus Gilbert and Chris Kemoeatu have the potential to be back in the fold. That being said, this is still an offensive line that has conceded 18 sacks this year, and the end result for the rushing game has been just 4.07 YPC for the team's top two tailbacks, Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman.

The Steelers only rank No. 22 in the league in scoring at 19.8 PPG, and there has just been one game all season long in which the team put more than 24 points on the board.

Thank goodness for this defense. On a day that the offense struggled, the Steelers were able to shut down Blaine Gabbert and the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 17-13 victory to move to 4-2 in Week 6.

This unit still ranks No. 1 in the game in total defense at 270.5 YPG, and is No. 4 in scoring defense at 17.0 PPG. Since Week 1's loss against the Baltimore Ravens, no team has scored more than 20 points on Iron Curtain D, and teams are averaging just 13.4 PPG.

The Cardinals (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) are No. 22 in our Don Best Linemakers Poll, and they have been sliding in the wrong direction ever since their opening week win over the Carolina Panthers. Since that point, they are 0-4 SU, though three of those four losses came by four points or fewer.

This is a big, big game for head coach Ken Whisenhunt. Not only is he going against his old mates in a rematch of the Super Bowl from three years ago, but he also needs to cool down the temperature on his hot seat. Many think that this could be the last year for Whisenhunt in Arizona if he doesn't win, and dropping to 1-5 and four games out of the NFC West lead could be disastrous.

The key is going to be getting Kevin Kolb going. The former Houston Cougar just hasn't played that well this year, and only has 1,281 yards and five TDs against six INTs.

Larry Fitzgerald, one of the most talented receivers in the league has struggled. He only has 27 receptions on the campaign and is on pace for just 86 receptions, 1,366 yards and six TDs.

This is the first meeting of these two teams since the Super Bowl, a game that Pittsburgh won 27-23. The Cards only have one win in this series since 1994, a 21-14 victory here at University of Phoenix Stadium in 2007.

The Steelers opened up this week as four-point favorites. The 'total' is set at 42.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
10/19/2011 06:44 PM

Baltimore Ravens Meet Jaguars On Monday Night Football

Maurice Jones-Drew is third in the NFL with 572 yards on the ground.
ESPN’s Monday Night Football features one of the best teams in the National Football League in the Baltimore Ravens as they head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. Kickoff is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) along the St. Johns River at EverBank Field.

This prime-time matchup opened with the Ravens as an 8½-point favorite but that has actually been bet down to 7½ with a total of 39.

Baltimore (4-1) comes into this game leading the AFC North and off of a home victory over a Houston Texans team many consider to be the class of the AFC South. First and foremost, it’s time to talk defense.

The Ravens have the best defense in the league. Rankings are not needed to illustrate that, but just to emphasize it they are third in yards against, first in points against (14.2), third in rushing defense and second in passing touchdowns allowed (4). The Ravens have six picks on the year and have forced 10 fumbles, recovering an astounding eight of them.

Playmakers, and leaders, are in every level of their defense with Haloti Ngata on the line, Ray Lewis at linebacker and Ed Reed in the secondary.

Jacksonville (1-5) actually has a very solid defense as well. The Jags may not be a great defense as they do not create as many turnovers, but they have done a great job all year. This is a team that does not give up many big plays.

It looked as though their identity was shattered a week ago when WR Mike Wallace and RB Rashard Mendenhall of the Steelers created three big plays en route to a 17-0 lead in the first half. However, the Jags ‘D’ tightened up and allowed just 70 yards in the second half, surrendering no more points.

As usual, the defensive unit did plenty to get Jacksonville a win but the offense did not do enough and the Jaguars lost their fifth game in a row.

Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert will complete a 3-game stretch on Monday having played the top-3 ranked defenses in the NFL (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore). Talk about growing up fast. This is one of the poorest offenses in the league caused by a having a young QB and a receiver corps that drops too many passes. The Jags re-signed Mike Sims-Walker this week after he was cut by the Rams.

On the bright side, Maurice Jones-Drew continues to prove he is a top-2 running back in the league week in and week out.

Offensively for the Ravens, running back Ray Rice does everything. He must be accounted for in the running game and in the passing game. As far as the rest of the passing game goes, QB Joe Flacco likes to launch it downfield in addition to checking off to Rice. The Ravens are fourth in the league in pass plays over 40 yards.

Free agent pickup Lee Evans was supposed to help the Ravens go vertical this year, but rookie Torrey Smith has really taken that role. Even tough possession receiver Anquan Boldin went vertical last week.

Here is the most interesting tidbit on this game, or maybe any game this week: John Harbaugh, one of the best coaches in the league, is dynamite coming off of a bye week. Including last week against Houston, his team’s scores in that situation are 28-10, 30-7, 26-10 and 29-14. Those are all at home and they are all wins. However, in the week that follows each of those wins, the scores have been 23-20, 17-7 and 26-21. Those are all on the road and they are all losses.

Well, this week they are on the road in the same situation. An argument could be made, of course, that the Jags are the worst team they have played in this situation. If nothing else, it is very interesting.

In prime-time games, Harbaugh is 7-4 while the Jaguars are 4-7 under head coach Jack Del Rio. The Ravens are 5-1 against the spread in their last six Monday games while the Jags are 2-7 in their last nine Monday contests. On a final note, safety Dawan Landry of the Jaguars will be facing his former team having spent his first five seasons in Baltimore.

Early weather reports call for clear skies with temperatures in the mid-60s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
10/19/2011 06:49 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 7

October 19, 2011


Sunday, Oct 23 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

CHI: 2-5-2 ATS L8 vs NFC South
CHI: 4-2 ATS L6 off division win
TB: 6-2 ATS L8 vs NFC North
TB: 0-3 ATS L3 before bye

WSH: 7-2 ATS L9 as away underdog
WSH: 5-1 ATS L6 off division loss
CAR: 10-4 'under' L14 at home
CAR: 1-5 ATS L6 vs NFC East

SD: 7-2 'over' L9 away
SD: 2-5 ATS L7 away vs non-division
NYJ: 6-0 ATS L6 off division win
NYJ: 3-1 ATS L4 before bye

SEA: 2-8 ATS L10 off bye
SEA: 1-7 ATS L8 away vs AFC
CLE: 1-5 ATS L6 home vs NFC
CLE: 2-8 ATS L10 as home favorites

HOU: 4-8 ATS L12 away vs division
HOU: 8-3 ATS L11 away off away loss
TEN: 6-3 ATS L9 overall
TEN: 8-4 ATS L12 home vs division

DEN: 6-2 ATS L8 off bye
DEN: 3-7 ATS L10 away vs non-division
MIA: 3-14 ATS L17 home favorites
MIA: 2-6 ATS L8 off division loss

ATL: 7-2 ATS L9 off home win
ATL: 7-1 ATS L8 before bye
DET: 5-2 ATS L7 off ATS loss
DET: 7-4 ATS L11 off home loss


Sunday, Oct 23 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

KC: 9-5 ATS L14 away vs division
KC: 1-7 ATS L8 vs opp off SU win
OAK: 8-0 ATS L8 vs division
OAK: 2-6 ATS L8 off home win

PIT: 3-5 ATS L8 away vs NFC
PIT: 3-6 ATS L9 off home win
ARZ: 5-1 'under' L6 off bye
ARZ: 2-6 ATS L8 off road loss


Sunday, Oct 23 (4:15 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

STL: 1-8 ATS L9 overall
STL: 4-0-1 'under' L5 away
DAL: 1-7 ATS L8 home favorites
DAL: 1-6-1 ATS L8 off away loss

GB: 13-4 ATS L17 away vs division
GB: 5-2 ATS L7 before bye
MIN: 2-8 ATS L10 home underdog
MIN: 2-6 ATS L8 vs division


Sunday, Oct 23 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

IND: 0-4 ATS L4 off away loss
IND: 6-2 'over' L8 away vs NFC
NOR: 2-8 ATS L10 double-digit favorites
NOR: 5-1 ATS L6 home vs AFC


Monday, Oct 24 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

BAL: 4-0 ATS L4 Mondays
BAL: 5-2 ATS L7 away favorites
JAX: 2-7 ATS L9 overall
JAX: 5-0 'under' L5 Mondays


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
10/19/2011 06:58 PM

Week 7 Preview: Chargers at Jets


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-1)

at NEW YORK JETS (3-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -1.5, Total: 46

The Jets ended their three-game losing skid on Monday Night, but they have little time to celebrate with 4-1 San Diego coming to town on Sunday.

This is a chance for the brash Jets to prove they’re among the AFC’s elite teams. The Chargers have been one of the NFL’s top ranked teams on both sides of the ball, but they’re also extremely mistake-prone with multiple turnovers in four of their five games. The Jets are still trying to find an identity on both sides of the ball. They are averaging 234 YPG of offense in the past three contests, and their once-stout run defense has struggled badly, allowing 132 YPG (5th-most in league). They could have trouble containing the Chargers’ improved rushing attack that rumbled for 206 yards in their last game. The Bolts are well-rested after their bye week, and will take advantage of a Jets team coming off a short week. The pick here is underdog SAN DIEGO.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also supports the Chargers:

Norv Turner is 20-8 ATS (71.4%, +11.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of SAN DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 27.7, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Any team (N.Y. JETS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. (27-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 2*).

Since 2002, the Jets are 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in six meetings with San Diego, but the Chargers won their last road game against the Jets, 31-26 in 2005. The Chargers’ four wins this season are against teams with a combined 4-17 record, but this is a club on the rise. Their four best offensive skill players have been hobbled by injuries (RB Ryan Mathews – calf, RB Mike Tolbert – concussion, WR Vincent Jackson – hamstring and TE Antonio Gates – foot), but Gates is the only one of the four that is questionable for Sunday’s game. San Diego was also very balanced in its last victory in Denver with 212 passing yards and 206 rushing yards. QB Philip Rivers has completed 67% of his passes for 307 YPG this year, but has more picks (seven) than touchdowns (six). The defense has also done a tremendous job in the passing game, ranking second in the NFL with 180 YPG allowed. And although San Diego allowed Denver to rush for 162 yards, it has held three of its opponents to under 100 this year.

Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson will be facing his former team for the first time. In nine years in San Diego, he racked up an eye-popping 153 touchdowns (17.0 per season). The last time these teams met was in the 2009 playoffs, when Shonn Greene ran wild in a 17-14 New York upset. Greene carried the rock 23 times for 128 yards and a TD in that win. But this RB duo has not done much this season, combining for just 411 yards on 122 carries (3.4 YPC). QB Mark Sanchez has been up and down, but he played better in his past two games, with 367 passing yards, 3 TD and no interceptions. TE Dustin Keller leads the Jets in both catches (21) and yards (319), while the top two WRs, Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress have combined for a mere 34 catches on 77 targets (44%). Although the run defense has been suspect, the Jets still are getting elite play from their secondary, as talented cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie each have three interceptions and are the keys to New York’s stingy passing defense (201 YPG, 5th in NFL).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
10/19/2011 10:59 PM

Green Bay Packers only unbeaten NFL football team

October 18, 2011 3:00 AM

Six weeks into the 2011NFL football season finds just one unbeaten team – the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers.

The only other unbeaten team heading into last week, the Detroit Lions, lost a very entertaining and emotionally charged contest against San Francisco in what could result in a January rematch.

Both the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers are 5-1.

San Francisco appears to be far and away the best team in the weak NFC West. Detroit Lions, if unable to overtake the Green Bay Packers, seems well positioned to earn a Wild Card if continuing the progress shown thus far.

Miami returned from its bye last week to face the Jets on Monday night as the Dolphins were looking for their first win of the season following four losses.

Two other teams did remain winless this past Sunday as Indianapolis and St Louis each lost road games. Losing in Cincinnati, the Colts fell to 0-5. Returning from a bye, the Rams were defeated in Green Bay.

Philadelphia got a much needed win on the road in Washington as the Eagles ended a four game losing streak to enter their bye week at 2-4, last in the NFC East.

Scoring took a modest dip with last Sunday’s dozen games averaging "just" 41.0 points per game after the first 5 weeks had averaged 46.3 ppg. There were 9 UNDERS and just 3 OVERS which narrowed the gap for the season, heading into Monday night, to just 13 (50-37 in favor of OVERS).

Ignoring those pushes, the OVER is hitting at a 57.5 percent clip.

The odds makers have done a pretty good job thus far of keeping results close to 50-50. Home favorites are 27-27-2 ATS thus far and home underdogs 17-13-2. The lone home pick’em game this season lost.

Six teams again have byes this week as Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, the New York Giants, Philadelphia and San Francisco will be idle.

Here’s a look at the 13 games that will be played including the 2011 version of the London Bowl with Tampa Bay and Chicago crossing the pond.

SUNDAY

Bears PK vs Bucs (43): Tampa makes its second appearance in this game as the Bucs lost 35-7 to New England in 2009. Neither team is explosive on offense and both have been significantly less productive on the road. The travel combined with the constant threat of rain and both offenses’ reliance more on the run than the pass suggests points will be more scarce than expected. UNDER.

Redskins +3 at Panthers (44): Carolina was game in last week’s loss at Atlanta and lost to the spread for just the first time this season. The Panthers have been more productive on offense while the Redskins have fared better on defense, especially against the pass. Washington has also played well on the road, winning at St Louis and losing by just 2 at Dallas. The FG is an attractive option. REDSKINS.

Chargers +2 at Jets (45): San Diego is off a bye while the Jets hosted division rival Miami last Monday night. The Jets still have had problems rushing the football and with the second best quarterback in this game are at a disadvantage. Their defense has played well but below the level of last season. CHARGERS.

Seahawks +3 at Browns (40): There are QB concerns for the Seahawks as starter Tarvaris Jackson was injured in the Giants win. Both teams have been below average on offense, especially in running the football, which should pressure on both teams’ passing attacks. The Browns have scored over 17 points just once and have played well against the pass. UNDER.

Texans +3 at Titans (44): The Titans return from their bye looking to rebound from a one sided loss at Pittsburgh. The Texans are likely to still be without WR Andre Johnson. QB Matt Schaub was banged up in the loss to the Ravens but is expected to play. The defense, without Mario Williams, allowed over 400 yards to the Ravens. TITANS.

Broncos +3 at Dolphins (42½): Denver is off of a bye and will start Tim Tebow at QB. However, their leading receiver, Brandon Lloyd, was just traded to St. Louis. Miami is off Monday night’s game at the Jets and with Matt Moore likely making his second start at QB after Chad Henne was placed on injured reserve. This figures to be a low scoring game. UNDER.

Falcons +4 at Lions (48½): With coach Mike Smith and QB Matt Ryan, the Falcons have been a much better team at home than on the road. The Lions are averaging over 30 points per game at home this season and will be facing a far more permissive defense in Atlanta than they faced against San Francisco last week. LIONS.

Chiefs +3½ at Raiders (42½): After going 6-0 in division games last season, Oakland has won their lone AFC West game this season against Denver. The Raiders must find a replacement for starting QB Jason Campbell. After starting 0-3, Kansas City won two straight prior to the bye week. The ground game should play a big role. UNDER.

Steelers -3½ at Cardinals (42½): Arizona is rested following the bye which should have enabled more work for QB Kevin Kolb who has been less than impressive with his new team. The Steelers are banged up with the latest injury to safety Troy Polamalu, expected to be at less than full strength this week. The Cards have a real chance to pull the upset. CARDS.

Rams +10½ at Cowboys (44½): St. Louis has not scored more than 16 points in any of its five games, averaging just 9.8 per game. Dallas has played much better than its 2-3 record suggests and out yarded each of its five foes this season. Cowboys and Tony Romo are in a favorable spot to take out frustrations on a Rams team that appears incapable of trading points. COWBOYS.

Packers -8 at Vikings (47): The woes continue for Minnesota as they made a mid game QB change on Sunday from veteran Donovan McNabb to rookie Christian Ponder. Green Bay continues to look like the most complete team in the NFL and has more weapons despite being on the road at a hated division rival the Packers have more weapons. And the Green Bay defense will be formidable. PACKERS.

Colts +14 at Saints (48): The Colts passing offense is starting to show improvement behind backup QB Curtis Painter although the running game remains inept. Still, the Saints have defensive vulnerabilities and should they get out to a big lead there could be opportunities for the Colts to put points on the board in the fourth quarter. The Total appears to be a much better option in this one than the side. OVER.

MONDAY

Ravens -7½ at Jaguars (39): The early money has come in on the home team. It might be due to this being the Jags last home game until after Thanksgiving, with three road games and a bye on deck. Although the Jacksonville offense has been poor, the defense has played rather well. The late money should come in on Baltimore, which should provide added value on the home underdog. JAGUARS.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
10/20/2011 10:31 PM

NFL Total Bias: Week 7 over/under picks

Patience doesn’t come easy in the world of pro football, or football gambling for that matter.

This week the Oakland Raiders gave us yet another perfect example of a team that at the first sign of success it has seen in years, put its future on the line to make a run of it this season.

A chance, because at this point, nobody really knows what Carson Palmer is. He could be a complete bust; he could lead the club to the playoffs.

I like the Raiders this season. They have a ton of potential with that backfield and they don’t really need their quarterback to do a whole lot in comparison to other teams in the league.

But as soon as I heard about the deal I instantly wondered whether the Packers (or the Patriots, Saints, Steelers or a handful of other teams) would have made the same move if they were in the same situation.

A lot has gone on in Raider Nation over the last month, but I think they acted too rashly in this situation. Think of the Steelers – Big Ben is always banged up and misses some time every year but nobody panics. They just roll the backup out under center and run the hell out of the ball.

You don’t think the Raiders could have done the same thing?

The NFL is all about instant gratification, with the amount of money each organization has on the line every week, each game, each play means a lot in the grand scheme of things. So, I can understand why the Raiders decided to strike why the iron is hot, but patience may have served them better – as it usually does for sports bettors.

Last week I jumped on the NFL over trend despite my suspicion that the tide was due to turn and sure enough, the under went 10-3 in Week 6. Guess we all need a little patience.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 42)

The latest rumor out of Oakland is that Palmer may actually start this weekend, which seems like the furthest thing from a patient approach.

Again, maybe Palmer works out in the long run and the reviews out of practice have been good this week, but if he does start he’ll have to be working with an extremely condensed playbook.

Expect a ton of McFadden coming out of the backfield mixed with some deep throws to Oakland’s speedy wideouts.

Kansas City struggles to put many points on the board at the best of times and five of the last six meetings between these two teams have played under the total.

Pick: Under

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 47.5)

Bad news out of Detroit this week: Jahvid Best’s concussion sounds like it’s much worse than originally thought.

He has had concussion problems dating back to college and now it has been reported that he is being urged to shut it down for the season. That’s a big problem for the Lions.

They don’t get a lot done on the ground, but Best is a huge big-play threat. Plus, the trade they swung to pick up Ronnie Brown was shut down by the league after Jerome Harrison was diagnosed with a brain tumor. That doesn’t leave much in Detroit’s running back stable.

This Lions offense is looking more like a one-trick pony all the time.

Pick: Under

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 43.5)

The NFL just has to get rid of these European adventures or at least schedule them better. At least both of these teams go on their byes in Week 8, but you have to worry about their preparation for this matchup.

Still both teams are coming off big wins. In Chicago, it seems like Mike Martz has finally realized that keeping two tight ends in on the line is a great way to make sure that Jay Cutler doesn’t get his head taken off.
Cutler repaid him by throwing for 267 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over Minnesota.

Meanwhile, Josh Freeman had his best game of the season by firing for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over New Orleans.

This matchup should give Londoners something to cheer about.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record to date: 9-9

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
10/21/2011 06:38 PM

Palmer Makes Raiders Debut Against KC Chiefs

With a new quarterback at the helm, the Oakland Raiders are set to host the Kansas City Chiefs at home this Sunday afternoon.

Sunday’s game will be televised nationally on CBS and is set to start at 4:05 p.m. (ET). Oakland is currently a 6-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

After losing starting quarterback Jason Campbell for at least six weeks with a collarbone injury, the Raiders knew they had to make a move to acquire a quarterback if they wanted to keep their playoff hopes alive. They did just that with a blockbuster trade this week, trading two high draft picks to the Cincinnati Bengals for the Carson Palmer.

Palmer demanded a trade following the end of the 2010 season, and said he would retire if Cincinnati didn't deal him. The Bengals finally honored his demand, a trade that was made easier by the fact rookie Andy Dalton is enjoying a solid season under center.

Oakland (4-2) will start Palmer right away, opting to go with him instead of current backup quarterback Kyle Boller. While Palmer has been keeping in shape in hopes that a trade like this one would come, he hasn’t taken live snaps since last year.

In a bit of bad news coming late in the week, reports Friday suggested that kicker Sebastian Janikowski may be out Sunday with a hamstring injury. Janikowski has been great for Oakland this season, converting on 12 of his 13 field goal attempts, including five of over 50 yards or more.

The Raiders are 5-1 ATS this season.

Kansas City (2-3) started the year off terribly, losing Eric Berry and Jamaal Charles to injuries and suffering blowout losses to Buffalo and Detroit. But since then, the Chiefs are 3-0 ATS in their last three games and 2-0 SU in their last two with wins over Minnesota and Indianapolis.

The key to Sunday’s game for the Chiefs will be to contain Oakland’s running game. Oakland ranks second in the league with 160 yards rushing per game while Kansas City has struggled against the run this season, allowing 119.6 rushing yards per game. If the Chiefs can figure out a way to slow down Darren McFadden and force the rusty Carson Palmer to throw, they could pull off the upset.

This series has been split down the middle at 5-5 SU over the last five years, with Oakland holding the slight ATS edge at 6-4. Oakland has won three of the last four games against Kansas City both SU and ATS, including both contests last season.

With both teams’ tendencies to run the football, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 games between the Chiefs and Raiders. Recent total trends point to an ‘over’ however, with six of Kansas City’s last nine road games and five of Oakland’s last seven home games going above the number.

Sunday’s total is currently set at 41 ½.

In this week’s Don Best Linemakers Poll, Oakland was ranked 11th along with the New York Jets and New York Giants while Kansas City was only ranked ahead of Jacksonville at No. 31.

It should be a great day in Oakland according to the weatherman, with mostly sunny skies and the afternoon high reaching the low-80s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
10/21/2011 06:40 PM

Texans And Titans Battle For AFC South Lead

First place in the AFC South will be on the line on Sunday for Week 7 NFL betting action between the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans. Kickoff from LP Field is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on CBS.

This truly is a decisive week in the coaching career of Gary Kubiak. He knows that it is the playoffs or bust this year, and that likely means getting his Texans (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) in as the AFC South winner. In order to do that, one would like to think that at least salvaging a split against the Titans in the two regular season games is compulsory.

Injury problems are really starting to get severe for this team. Mario Williams is already on injured reserve with a torn pectoral muscle, and Dominique Barber, one of the three safeties that the team rotates, joined him this week on IR after being carted off the field in last week's loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Andre Johnson has been out for two and a half games now, and he isn't likely to be in the fold this week either with his hamstring injury. The offensive line might not have Duane Brown (knee) or Antoine Caldwell (ankle), while the defense might be without DeMeco Ryans (quadriceps) or Danieal Manning (leg). All four players are considered questionable, while Johnson is listed as doubtful on this week's injury report.

Despite the injuries, the Texans still rank No. 8 in the league in total offense at 381.0 YPG, and they are significantly improved this year on defense at 328.7 YPG, No. 10 in the league.

Still, in the team's last two road games, Houston allowed a whopping 454 yards and 40 points in a loss to the New Orleans Saints and 402 yards and 29 points last week to the Ravens, numbers which just aren't good enough to win in this league.

The Titans (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) are coming off of their bye week, and they have the half-game lead in the division coming into this week.

It's still a bit of a mystery just how good this team is, as there have definitely been a mixed bag of results. The Titans were beaten by 21 in a game that they were never in against the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago, and they also are the only team that the Jacksonville Jaguars have beaten this year. Yet, they also have a convincing win at the Dawg Pound against the Cleveland Browns, and a 26-13 win over the aforementioned Ravens here at LP Field.

The hope is that the bye week was just what the doctor ordered to get Chris Johnson going. Johnson, a 2,000-yard back just two years ago, has averaged just 3.0 YPC and has just 250 total yards on the ground this year. He only has one touchdown as well.

These two teams have split the proceedings over the last two seasons both from an SU standpoint and an ATS standpoint. The Titans won 31-17 last year at home, but were shut out 20-0 at Reliant Stadium. Prior to that though, Tennessee had covered six out of seven spreads in this series.

The 'over' has cashed in 19 of Houston's last 27 divisional games, but the Texans are just 1-5 towards the 'over' on the season.

The Texans enter this week tied at No. 14 in our Don Best Linemakers Poll, while Tennessee enters at No. 20.

The oddsmakers are giving the slight nod to the hosts, though. The Titans are favored by three points, while the total has stayed level all week long at 44.

After a cold week in Nashville, temperatures should warm up just a tad for Sunday. Expect nice football weather in the high-60s with a minimal chance of rain and relatively light winds.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: