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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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09/15/2013 10:42 AM
Dolphins @ Colts (-2.5) -- 1 p.m.

During Andrew Luck’s career the Colts have been both outscored and outgained.

Visitor in Miami games: 51-29 ATS

Colts #12 ESPN Poll - #21 in Vegas poll
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09/15/2013 10:43 AM
Colts overrated?

Yes, the Indianapolis Colts are 1-0, but having to fight back to beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 1 wasn’t exactly what many expected from an 11-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are coming off a win and cover at Cleveland. Even though it’s just mid-September, don’t underestimate the importance of this matchup (1 p.m. ET, CBS). The winner will have two AFC wins in the first two games, and conference record is a playoff tiebreaker.

Line: Colts -2.5, Total: 43

Line movement: Indy opened -3 at most shops, but bettors have been taking the points, and the line was down to 2.5 or even 2 at some shops on Friday. The total's been bet up from 42.5.

History and trends: The Colts have won the last four meetings between these two clubs, and have covered in three of those games. Indianapolis (+2.5) scored a 23-20 win vs. Miami at Lucas Oil Stadium last season. The Colts already have as many ATS losses at home in 2013 (one) as they had in the entire 2012 home campaign.

Dolphins outlook: The Dolphins’ defense starred in Week One, sacking Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden six times and intercepting him on three occasions. Overall, Cleveland was limited to 291 yards on 72 plays and did not score in the second half.

The Dolphins’ offense hit its best stride after halftime at Cleveland, putting together a pair of TD drives. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill (24-of-38 passing, 272 yards, two TDs, one interception) and his receivers carried the day with backs Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller combining for just17 rushing yards on 18 carries. Wide receiver Mike Wallace also had a quiet game, catching just one pass.

In the end, the Dolphins’ tough defense and persistent offense (8-of-16 third downs converted) got the job done — and there is probably room for collective improvement for Joe Philbin’s club going forward.

Colts’ outlook: The passing and running of Andrew Luck saved the Colts in their 21-17 season-opening win vs. Oakland. Luck threw a pair of touchdowns and rushed for the game-winning 19-yard touchdown with 5:20 left. Like last year, Luck’s main target was wide receiver Reggie Wayne, who hauled in all eight passes for 96 yards and a score against the Raiders. The Colts also racked up 127 rushing yards on 26 carries (4.9 ypc).

However, the Colts’ defense enters Week 2 with some areas in which to improve. The Raiders gained 372 yards of offense, with quarterback Terrelle Pryor throwing for 217 yards and rushing for 112 more. Five of Oakland’s eight drives lasted 10 plays or more. The Colts did end a pair of those drives with interceptions, including one to seal the game in the final minutes. Also, Indianapolis did hold Oakland tailback Darren McFadden to 48 yards on 17 carries.

Nevertheless, the Colts were pushed by the Raiders. What this means may not be known until we see how Chuck Pagano’s club fares against Miami, which is a better club than Oakland. The matchup between the Colts’ running game and the Dolphins’ run defense could be especially interesting after Miami limited Cleveland’s Trent Richardson to 47 yards on 13 attempts a week ago.


Key injuries: Colts tight end Dwayne Allen (hip) missed practice on Wednesday. He could be the biggest injury concern for Indianapolis entering Week 2 The Dolphins have some nagging injuries but none that look too serious. Cornerback Dimitri Patterson (groin) and safety Reshad Jones (thumb) were limited practice participants on Wednesday.


Weather: 67 degrees and partly cloudy with 47 percent humidity. Check out wunderground.com for an updated forecast.

The Linemakers’ lean: There are plenty of of handicappers who think Indy is overrated -- our partner Rufus Peabody is among them -- but the line shift from last season, when the Colts were a home dog against the Dolphins, indicates some value on the favorite. If we can get this game at less than a field goal, we're interested. Also, these teams combined for 21 UNDERs last season, so we'll take a shot with that trend as well.
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09/15/2013 10:43 AM
Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Panthers minus-3
Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Panthers


Public perception: Both teams are coming off near-upsets. Normally, I would expect the public to side more with a short road favorite like Carolina here, but there's nearly as much support coming in on Buffalo (some bet-tracking sites have more action on the Bills), so that shows me they're high on EJ Manuel coming off his impressive debut after missing most of the preseason.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this game as well. Many had both teams last week and felt that both should have won. As a result, they will be looking to back both as dogs down the road.

Tuley's Take: I wasn't on Carolina last week and regretted not getting on the wiseguy bandwagon for most of the game before Seattle prevailed and got the cover. The Panthers' defense was the surprise for me and makes me think they're the right side this week as I expect more from the offense. However, I have to respect how the Bills battled back after looking like they were going to get blown out, so I can't go against them. The pick: Pass (pool play: Panthers, obviously stronger at minus-2.5)
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09/15/2013 10:47 AM
Panthers @ Bills (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Bills last 26 games: lost against the spread by a NET 142 points

Carolina is better than their record.
Cam Newton 2-13 SU in one score games.
Close games EVEN OUT in the long run.

Ron Rivera, in two seasons, has started 1-5 and 1-6 and now 0-1
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09/15/2013 10:47 AM
San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)

Philip Rivers completed only 14-of-29 passes against the Texans, including a 1-for-7 performance with a pick-six in the decisive fourth quarter. Rivers did throw four touchdown passes, but to provide a comparison, the Chargers ran a total of 51 plays against the Texans – two fewer than Philadelphia ran in the first half alone. San Diego, which was ravaged by injuries to its receivers in the preseason, did not have a player catch more than three passes or go over 50 yards against Houston.

Under the direction of Chip Kelly’s high-flying offense, the Eagles ran 53 first-half plays against the Washington Redskins on Monday night and extended their lead to 33-7 in the opening two minutes of the third quarter. After his team ran 77 plays and finished with 443 yards against Washington, Kelly actually said of the Eagles’ offense, “I felt like it was too slow, to be honest with you.”

LINE: Eagles opened -7.5 and bet down to -7. Total moved from 53 to 55.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (+2.5) - Eagles (+1.0) + home (-3.0) = Eagles -4.5
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s. Clear skies. Winds west 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following SU loss.
* Eagles are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.
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09/15/2013 10:47 AM

Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -6.5
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Falcons

Public perception: All the early spread bets (and teasers) have been coming in on the Falcons and should continue to do so. I wouldn't be surprised if this line isn't a solid 7 everywhere by Friday.

Wiseguys' view: The Rams were 11-5 ATS last year and even though they failed to cover in their win over the Cardinals last week, they'll be backed by a lot of sharps when they can get plus-7.

Tuley's Take: My biggest frustration of opening weekend was the Falcons letting their game against the Saints slip away (and then not being able to punch in the winning score at the end). I would normally love taking the Rams in this spot as the market is still undervaluing them, but I expect the Falcons to bounce back at home. The pick: Pass (pool play: Falcons)
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09/15/2013 10:48 AM
Redskins vs. Packers

Two defenses that were lit up in Week 1 will each face another stiff test on Sunday when Robert Griffin III and the Redskins visit Aaron Rodgers’ Packers.

Washington gave up 443 yards in a 33-27 home loss to the Eagles in the season opener, while Green Bay allowed 494 yards in a 34-28 loss in San Francisco. Griffin nearly brought his team back from a 33-7 hole, finishing with 353 total yards and two scores, while Rodgers threw for 333 yards and 3 TD in a losing effort. Both teams will likely be without key defensive players for this matchup. Redskins star LB Ryan Kerrigan suffered a concussion in Week 1, S Brandon Meriweather is questionable with a groin injury and CB DeAngelo Hall (ankle) remains out indefinitely. The Packers' outstanding secondary could be missing two starters in FS Morgan Burnett (hamstring) who is questionable, while CB Casey Hayward (hamstring) is doubtful. Although these injuries should contribute to this game being a high-scoring affair, the last time these teams met in 2010, Washington won 16-13 despite Rodgers throwing for 293 yards. Although the Redskins are 36-17 ATS (68%) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992, they are also just 4-11 ATS (27%) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game over the past six seasons. Green Bay is an excellent 10-2 ATS (83%) after an ATS defeat in the past three years, but only 8-16 ATS (33%) versus poor passing defenses (allowing 7+ passing yards per attempt) in the past six seasons.
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09/15/2013 10:48 AM
Last week the Redskins trailed by 26 points late in the third quarter before ending the game on a 20-0 run. Griffin looked tentative for those first three quarters and only got into a rhythm once the Eagles dropped back into a prevent defense. Griffin completed 30-of-49 passes for 329 yards (6.7 YPA) and 2 TD, but also threw two picks and took three sacks. Because Washington was trailing for most of the game, the team abandoned the run, finishing with 74 yards on 18 carries (4.1 YPC), a far cry from its NFL-best 169 rushing YPG last year. RB Alfred Morris was held to 45 yards on 12 carries (3.8 YPC) and the only other running back with a carry was Roy Helu, who was given one hand-off. Griffin did a nice job spreading the wealth among his receivers, as five players caught at least four passes each. WR Leonard Hankerson was the star with 80 yards and two scores, while WR Pierre Garcon (11 targets) and WR Santana Moss (9 targets) were the most popular choices for Griffin when he dropped back. With the Packers defense stopping the run much more effectively than the pass last week, the Redskins could choose to throw the football more than usual. Washington's defense was chewed up by the fast-paced Eagles offense, allowing 263 rushing yards on 49 carries (5.4 YPC), but the Packers don't have the type of rushing offense that can compare to Philly's ground game.

Aaron Rodgers was able to make a whole slew of big plays against an excellent 49ers defense last week, completing 21-of-37 passes for 333 yards (9.0 YPA), 3 TD and 1 INT. He relied on basically three players who got 30 of the 36 targets, WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and TE Jermichael Finley. Nelson and Cobb each had seven catches for over 100 yards and a touchdown while Finley wound up with five catches for 56 yards and a score. Finley injured his toe during that performance though, and is questionable for Week 2. The Packers tried only 15 rushing attempts from their running backs, which resulted in a mere 44 yards (2.9 YPC). Rookie RB Eddie Lacy had 14 of these carries, but none went for more than seven yards. Lacy figures to find a lot more holes in the Redskins run defense that was carved up by the Eagles on Monday night. The Packers defense allowed nearly 500 yards last week, but they were also on the field for 38:35. Although Colin Kaepernick averaged 10.6 yards per pass attempt, the 49ers managed only 2.6 yards per carry against Green Bay.
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09/15/2013 10:48 AM
The Falcons are 16-0 ATS since December 23, 2007 following a loss by at least six points.
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