cnotes Posts:24911 Followers:33
10/20/2011 05:47 PM

Las Vegas Money Moves

October 20, 2011


Thanks to Nebraska jumping into the Big 10 fray, we having a scheduling glitch where Wisconsin has to travel to Michigan State for the second consecutive year. It didn’t turn out so well for the Badgers last season as their 34-24 loss became their only blemish of the regular season and eliminated all hopes for a national title run.
Saturday’s game will mark Wisconsin’s first trip away from Madison this season, a place where they have steam rolled all their opponents. Only a late surge by 35-point underdog UNLV has kept Wisconsin from covering every game. They'll look to go 7-0 straight up for the first time since 2004.

Michigan State comes off an emotional home win against rival Michigan, but the troubling part about siding with the Spartans this week is reflecting on their struggles at Ohio State (10-7 win) and getting rocked at Notre Dame 31-13. Outside of the Michigan and Ohio State victories, they only have wins against Central Michigan (45-7) and Florida Atlantic (44-0) to go off of. The same can be said for Wisconsin playing at home where their only real quality win was against a questionable Nebraska (48-17) squad.

The difference maker this week compared to last season's match in East Lansing is Badgers quarterback Russell Wilson, a Heisman contender and the Big 10 leader with 1,557 passing yards, 14 TDs and only one interception. His consistent quarterback play is the main variable with Wisconsin being such a large 7 ½-point road favorite.

We also have the emotional factor of Wisconsin getting up big for their first road test while Michigan State has to recapture their intensity from last waeek. Using past Big 10 situational play, the best bet involving this game might be if Wisconsin wins this week and then goes into Columbus next week sky high, but not respecting the Buckeyes, a team who could put it to them under those circumstances.

The Wynn Resort sports book opened Wisconsin minus-7 Sunday afternoon and were bet up to -8 ½ by Monday morning when most Las Vegas books started posting their lines. The Las Vegas Hilton opened the game -9 and have been bet down with Spartans money to -7 ½ through Thursday.

Even though the Hilton dropped their line with early Michigan State money, executive director Jay Kornegay knows he’ll need the Spartans to come up big.

“The combination of Wisconsin being a very public team, highly-ranked and simply being just a favorite on a Saturday night national TV game has me knowing what side we’ll need. We’ve seen Top-10 teams covering at about a 76% rate and have been getting killed. It gets even worse when those games are featured late on television,” said Kornegay.

The Top-5 teams alone this season -- the teams every casual bettor loves, knows and bets -- are 26-6 (81%) against the spread.

“We don’t even need to hit 50% on these games to show a little profit,” Kornegay explained. “Because of all the parlay action we get, we can be just below 40% and still do well, but 76%…?”

Kornegay has seen a shift of change from the casual unsophisticated bettor now being expectant of these type of streaks with the favorites to continue.

“I was walking into work Sunday morning, the day after the entire strip avoided Black Saturday with Kansas saving the day, and I overhead one guy cussing out Oklahoma because they cost him an eight-teamer (parlay),“ Kornegay said. “I’m thinking ‘you’ve been hitting these things all season,’ that type of disappointment used to be reserved for just winning a single game. Now people are expecting to win eight just because they have already this season.”

As for the Wisconsin game, Kornegay believes in Michigan State more than just what his book will need Saturday night.

“Wisconsin hasn’t been tested on the road and it’s a big number to lay.”

For whatever it's worth, former Las Vegas television sportscaster and current ESPN national radio host Colin Cowherd loves Michigan State with the points. He also went a little overboard in suggesting that because he is so intelligent with college football (he is) and popular in the Las Vegas market (he is) that every wise guy and sports book follows him (they don't). He also suggested that the line movement on the game had something to do with his choice (it didn't). We do love Cowherd in Las Vegas, but just about every unsophisticated bettor in town has been correct in college football this season.

Here’s a look at some of the other line moves during the week in Las Vegas:

Despite Florida State losing three of its last four games, the school is still very well respected in the power ratings. Its last game against Duke (41-16) was the type of performance that many expected out of them all season. The Wynn opened FSU -15 Sunday night and by Thursday afternoon, the game had moved up to -18 for their home game against a Maryland team in disarray.

Vanderbilt opened up at the Hilton as an 8 ½-point favorite against Army and has been bet up to -11. Vanderbilt will be going with sophomore QB Jordan Rodgers, the brother of Aaron Rodgers, who will be making his first career start. He's replacing Larry Smith who has been pulled from all six Vanderbilt games this season.

One top-ranked team that doesn’t have a glowing ATS record this season is Oregon at 3-2-1. The Ducks travel to Colorado and have been bet against at the Hilton from -32 down to -30 ½. Colorado, while never looking worse - almost never, is 2-1 at home ATS. The Buffs will be without RB Rodney Stewart while the status of Oregon’s dynamic duo, LaMichael James (elbow) and Darron Thomas (knee), is still up in the air with mixed reports.

California has been bet against in their 'kinda' home game (AT&T Park in San Francisco) against Utah. The Hilton opened Cal at -3 on Monday morning and it currently sits at -1 ½. The Wynn opened this game as PICK on Sunday night and currently has Cal -2.

Houston opened as a 16-point favorite at the Wynn Sunday evening for its home against Marshall and have been bet all the way to -22. The Hilton opened the game -20 on Monday morning and currently sit at -22 ½.

Alabama has been one of those teams that have been killing the sports books all season. They’re a top ranked team and they’re 6-1 ATS, much to the sports book’s disdain and bettors delight. The Hilton opened the Tide -28 and the line is currently -30 for their home against Tennessee.

Stanford has been a perfect 6-0 ATS and they face a Washington team that registered almost as many ATS wins at 5-1. The Cardinal opened as 20-point favorites and have been bet up to -20 ½.

New Mexico State has been finding some support in its long travel to Hawaii for Saturday night’s late game. Hawaii opened as a 23 ½-point favorite at the Hilton and has been bet against down to -21 ½. The Aggies have covered three straight games while Hawaii is playing only its third home game. While impressive on the road as an underdog at Louisiana Tech three weeks ago, it lost outright as a 6-point road favorite at San Jose State last Friday night.



Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24911 Followers:33
10/20/2011 05:50 PM

Wildcats look to regroup Thursday vs. UCLA


UCLA BRUINS (3-3)
at ARIZONA WILDCATS (1-5)


Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona -4, Total: 62

Arizona tries to end a long losing streak with a new head coach on the sidelines when it hosts UCLA on Thursday.

Defensive coordinator Tim Kish takes over for fired head coach Mike Stoops and is tasked with trying to stop a 10-game losing streak to FBS opponents. But the Wildcats love playing the Bruins, beating them in four straight meetings, including a 29-21 win in Los Angeles last season. UCLA has alternated wins and losses all year, beating Washington State 28-25 in its last game on Oct. 8. Neither team has a good defense, but the Wildcats have a superior offense that has posted 99 points in its past three games, all versus Pac-12 opponents. The pick here is ARIZONA to win and cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend shows how badly the Bruins struggle against high-scoring opponents:

UCLA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was UCLA 15.3, OPPONENT 33.4 - (Rating = 3*).

The Wildcats love to throw the football, and why shouldn’t they with QB Nick Foles (376 passing YPG, 2nd in FBS) under center. The senior didn’t face UCLA last year, but he struggled in 2009, throwing for 247 yards and 2 TD, but also tossing three picks to Bruins defenders. Senior WR Juron Criner has thrived in this series, racking up 251 total yards and three scores in two career games against UCLA. However, Criner has only five catches for 45 yards in his past two games this season. The Wildcats have the second-fewest rushing attempts in FBS (151), so it’s not a surprise they also have the second-fewest yards (72 YPG). However, their 2.9 YPC average is just atrocious. The defense also has its holes, especially the pass rush that has just three sacks on the season, the lowest total in the nation. The Wildcats are also fourth-worst in scoring defense (37.5 PPG) and fifth-worst in total defense (488 YPG), but they have faced two of the nation’s top-5 offenses (Oklahoma State and Oregon), and two other great offenses in Stanford and USC.

UCLA’s offense is the opposite of Arizona, as the Bruins look to run with Johnathan Franklin (85 rushing YPG) and Derrick Coleman (55 rush YPG). The school’s 195 rushing YPG ranks 2nd in the Pac-12, but the ground game has been stalled by the Arizona defense in the past six meetings, gaining only 91 rushing yards per game on 3.1 YPC. Bruins QB Kevin Prince actually had a strong performance in the win over Washington State, completing 8-of-13 passes for 173 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. But for his career, Prince has 13 TD, 17 INT and just 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The defense has also had its problems, especially against the high-powered offenses of Stanford, Texas and Houston, which combined to score 132 points (44.0 PPG) against the Bruins. Like Arizona, UCLA’s defensive woes start with the D-Line. UCLA ranks 115th in the nation in sacks (0.8 per game) and is tied for 111th in Tackles for Loss (4.2 per game).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24911 Followers:33
10/20/2011 05:51 PM

UCLA at Arizona

October 20, 2011

Matchup: UCLA (3-3) at Arizona (1-5)
Venue: Arizona Stadium – Natural Grass
Date: Thursday, Oct. 20
Time/TV: 9:00 pm ET - ESPN
Line: Arizona -4, o/u 62

It was a nice way to kick a two-game losing streak last Thursday night. I backed San Diego State getting seven points on the road at Air Force and the Aztecs pulled away in the second half for a 14-point outright win over the Falcons. It doesn’t seem to happen often, but it sure is nice not to have to sweat out every win.

Speaking of sweating, Arizona coach Mike Stoops probably had a pretty thick layer of perspiration on him after losing to the previously winless Oregon State Beavers 37-27 on October 8. That loss pushed the Wildcats losing streak against FBS teams to 10 in a row and, if possible, made the Stoops grip on the head coaching job even more tenuous. But even a coach with the last name Stoops is only given so much rope and Arizona Athletic Director Greg Byrne decided he had seen enough. On the Monday after the loss to the Beavers, Stoops was fired.

For now, Tim Kish, who has been with Arizona since 2004 and was most recently the defensive coordinator, will serve as the interim head coach. Byrne is expected to launch a full court press to get Boise State’s Chris Petersen – and the Wildcats certainly won’t be the first program to come knocking on Petersen’s door.

Stoops could blame his firing on several factors and certainly injuries didn’t help. Arizona hasn’t gotten a full season from many of the their best players in 2011 including S Adam Hall, LB Jake Fischer, CB Jonathan McKnight, DT Justin Washington and WR Juron Criner and make no mistake, that type of playmaking ability is very difficult to replace.

However, ultimately Stoops only has himself to blame. The losing streak aside, it’s hard to survive with the 115th ranked defense in the land…especially when you are known as a defensive-minded coach.

Following Stoops dismissal, Arizona had a bye week and now is ready to return to the field this Thursday night when they host UCLA. Rick Neuheisel might want to the Bruins ship sailing in the right direction in a hurry or he could well find himself in the unemployment line with Mike Stoops. The former quarterback for the 1984 UCLA team that went to the Rose Bowl, Neuheisel was brought back to L.A. to get UCLA back to winning ways. It certainly hasn’t been easy so far as the Bruins haven’t finished better than eighth in the Pac-10 in Neuheisel’s first three seasons.

Thus far in 2011 UCLA is sitting at 3-3 but the wins have only come against San Jose State (3-4), Oregon State (1-5), and Washington State (3-3) – hardly impressive. The reality is, beating a 1-5 Arizona team won’t do much to change people’s opinion that UCLA is an average-to-poor team but should they lose, Neuheisel could be a dead man walking.

For the Bruins to win this Thursday, the will have to get a top effort from their defense – something that certainly hasn’t happened much this season. UCLA currently sports the 90th ranked defense in the land and have surrendered 38 or more points in half their games. Now they get to tangle with QB Nick Foles and an Arizona offense ranked 25th in the nation.

The senior QB has pretty much been the entire story for Arizona, throwing for 2,255 yards with 15 TDs and just four INTs while ranking second nationally in passing with an average of 375.8 yards per game. Foles, who is one of 10 finalists for the Johnny Unitas Award for QBs, had to drool this week as he looked at tape of a UCLA defense which has given up an average of 231.8 passing yards per game, tied for 76th in the nation.

UCLA will counter with QB Kevin Prince, who was the starter at the beginning of the season, but then lost the job to QB Richard Brehaut. Starting in four of the Bruins' first six games, Brehaut passed for 907 yards and six touchdowns without an interception before breaking his leg against Washington State.

There is some good news on the medical front for the Wildcats as it appears they will have the services of 2010 Freshman All-American DT Justin Washington (knee) and WR Juron Criner (knee) this week.

Additionally, the Wildcats have to be bolstered by the fact they won four in a row against UCLA, not allowing more than 300 yards in any game.

UCLA is 1-4 against the spread in 2011 while Arizona is only slightly better with a 2-4 ATS mark.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24911 Followers:33
10/20/2011 05:55 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/18/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/15/11 33-­31-­3 51.56% -­550 Detail
10/14/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
10/13/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail
10/08/11 29-­19-­0 60.42% +­4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
10/01/11 55-­45-­2 55.00% +­2750 Detail
Totals 124-­102-­5 54.87% +5900

Thursday, October 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Central Florida - 8:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +16 500

Alabama-Birmingham - Under 45.5 500

UCLA - 9:00 PM ET Arizona -4.5 500

Arizona - Under 62 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24911 Followers:33
10/20/2011 10:34 PM

Top 5 NCAAF Trends

ULLAF
WKEN ULLAF are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

WISC
MCHST WISC are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

WISC
MCHST WISC are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

MTENN
FLATL Under is 8-0 in FLATL last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

MTENN
FLATL Over is 7-0-1 in MTENN last 8 games overall.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24911 Followers:33
10/20/2011 10:39 PM

West Virginia at Syracuse: What bettors need to know

West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange (+13.5, 59)

THE STORY: The bye week has been about the only thing recently slowing down Geno Smith, who leads the prolific offense of No. 15 West Virginia into a prime-time showdown Friday in Syracuse. The Mountaineers have scored 98 points in their last two games with Smith throwing for 688 yards and seven touchdowns. The junior could keep piling on numbers against a Syracuse defense that ranks 112th against the pass. The Orange will need Ryan Nassib to counter every punch, but the senior has struggled in his two games before last week’s bye, throwing for less than 200 yards in each and tossing three interceptions.

TV: ESPN.

LINE MOVES: WVU opened as a 14.5-point road favorite in the Carrier Dome. However, money on the home side has the spread down to 13.5. The total has climbed from 57.5 to 59 points.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (5-1, 1-0 BIG EAST, 3-3 ATS): The Mountaineers four-wide sets will spread an Orange defense lacking in confidence. Syracuse has been eaten up by game-changing targets, allowing a 100-yard receiver in each of its last three games. Smith has three weapons on the outside in Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin and Ivan McCartney, who all rank in the top four in the Big East in receiving yards. Each has helped WVU produce a whopping 19 plays of 30 yards or more. Syracuse conceded three such plays for touchdowns in a narrow win over Tulane two weeks ago.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (4-2, 0-1 BIG EAST, 2-4 ATS): Nassib finished September as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country, but secondaries have taken away his top threat in Van Chew. The sure-handed receiver has just two catches for 20 yards and no touchdowns in the last two games after grabbing three scores in the first three games. If Nassib can’t find Chew in this one, he’ll have to once again turn to the ground game to keep his counterpart Smith on the sidelines. The Orange ran the ball 40 times for a season-high 170 yards last time out in a 37-34 road win over Tulane.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Syracuse stunned West Virginia 19-14 last year, when Smith was sacked five times and threw three interceptions in the first half.

2. The Orange haven’t won at home in the series since 2001.

3. Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones returns after missing five games with a lower-body injury. The redshirt senior, who recorded 9.5 tackles for loss in 2010, should help a pass-rush that ranks seventh in the conference and failed to take down the quarterback in its last game.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Syracuse.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Syracuse.
* Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings.
* Mountaineers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.

PREDICTION: West Virginia 38, Syracuse 28 – The bye week really aided the Orange’s injuries in the secondary and it could keep Smith in check in the first half. After all, WVU has trailed in all six games this season. Smith, though, should be able to make just enough big plays late to earn the road win.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24911 Followers:33
10/20/2011 10:41 PM

Rutgers at Louisville: What bettors need to know

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Louisville Cardinals (-2, 39.5)

THE STORY: Rutgers looks to stay on the inside track toward a Big East title when it travels to Louisville on Friday night. The Scarlet Knights currently sit atop the standings with a 2-0 league mark, just the second time they have won their first two Big East games in 21 seasons in the conference.

TV: ESPN2

LINE MOVES: Louisville opened as a 1.5-point home underdog but has been bet up, flipping the spread to -2. The total has hovered around its opening number of 40 points.

ABOUT RUTGERS (5-1, 2-0 Big East, 5-1 ATS): The Scarlet Knights have made a living off opponents’ mistakes thus far, leading the nation in turnover margin (2.17). Rutgers is tied for the national lead with 24 takeaways, ranking second with 14 interceptions and third with 10 fumbles recovered. The defense has been depleted recently, however, with LB Marvin Booker (knee) and DL Michael Larrow (ankle) both lost for the season last week against Navy.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (2-4, 0-1, 3-3 ATS): The Cardinals let a golden opportunity slip away in their Big East opener last weekend, giving up 18 unanswered points in the second half of a 25-16 setback at Cincinnati. QB Will Stein (621 yards passing, 5 TD, 1 INT), who had missed two games with an injured shoulder, made a brief return against the Bearcats in place of Terry Bridgewater (709 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT). Both are expected to play Friday.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The road team has won each of the last two meetings in lopsided fashion — Louisville rolled to a 40-13 victory last season, while Rutgers earned a 34-14 win in 2010.

2. Excluding the three-point thrillers in 2006 and 2007, the average margin of victory in games between the two schools since 1986 is 37.2 points.

3. Rutgers is third in the nation with 51 blocked kicks since 2002, including four this season. LB Jamal Merrell has three blocks in 2011, including two at Syracuse.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cardinals are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 conference games.
* Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

PREDICTION: Rutgers 27, Louisville 17. According to head coach Charlie Strong, the Cardinals are struggling with confidence right now —and that seems unlikely to improve against the surging, opportunistic Scarlet Knights.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24911 Followers:33
10/20/2011 10:44 PM

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 8

West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange (+13.5, 58)

Why West Virginia will cover: West Virginia averages 380 yards through the air, while Syracuse ranks 114th in pass defense. The team is 3-1 ATS in its last four, while SU is 1-3.

Why Syracuse will cover: The defense has been inconsistent, but will finally get healthy for the first time this week. The offense hasn’t been great, but finds ways to score.

Points: The over has hit in the Mountaineers’ last five games and is 3-1 in the Orange’s last four.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Missouri Tigers (+6.5, 68.5)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU is No. 2 in scoring (49.2 ppg) and in passing (396 ypg), while slowing the pass is Mizzou’s biggest weakness. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 overall.

Why Missouri will cover: Missouri is 0-3 on the road, but 3-0 at home, and is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home.

Points: The over is 4-1 in Missouri’s last five and 2-1-1 in OSU’s last four. Both have the offenses to put up big numbers.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigers (-10, 57.5)

Why North Carolina will cover: The Heels have been successful thanks to a defense ranked 24th in points allowed. The offense does just enough.

Why Clemson will cover: Clemson is 6-1 ATS, including 5-0 in its last five. The offense ranks in the top 30 in every category.

Points: The over is 6-2 in Clemson’s last eight, but the under is 9-2 in its last 11 ACC games.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers (+4, 47)

Why Illinois will cover: Illinois has shut down the opposition, allowing just 17.7 ppg (17th), while an offense that averages 210 ypg on the ground wears down defenses.

Why Purdue will cover: Purdue stays in games by running the ball effectively (24th) while slowing opponents. Just one foe has scored more than 24 points.

Points: Purdue is 2-0-2 with the over in its last four, and the over is 7-1 in Illinois’ last eight in the Big Ten. Both teams have been led by their defenses, though.

Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks (+10.5, 62.5)

Why Kansas State will cover: KU’s defense ranks worst in the nation in points allowed (49 ppg). K-State’s rushing attack should eventually wear down the Jayhawks, just as Oklahoma did last week. KSU is 5-0 ATS in its last five.

Why Kansas will cover: KU showed heart against a powerful Sooners squad, and has an offense – averaging more than 200 yards passing and rushing per game – to never be out of a game.

Points: The over has been big for both teams all season.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi Rebels (+16, 56)

Why Arkansas will cover: Arkansas averages 337 ypg through the air, and Ole Miss hasn’t been able to score on anyone of note. The team is 4-2 ATS.

Why Mississippi will cover: Ole Miss has been decent against the pass, and Arkansas has struggled against the run (93rd). If the Rebels can get an early lead, we could be in for a surprise.

Points: The over is 3-1 for the Razorbacks’ last four and has hit in the Rebels’ last two.

Boston College Eagles at Virginia Tech Hokies (-21, 43.5)

Why Boston College will cover: With three losses by single digits, the Eagles aren’t has terrible as their 1-5 record suggests. VT has been erratic, especially offensively.

Why Virginia Tech will cover: Va. Tech is 14th in scoring defense and eighth in rushing defense, and B.C. is struggling to score as it is. The Hokies were 0-5 ATS in their last five before blowing out Wake Forest, so maybe it’s the start of a new trend.

Points: The under is 1-5 in B.C. games, and hit four straight for VT games before the last two weeks (both over).

Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes (+32, 66.5)

Why Oregon will cover: Oregon averages 315 yards rushing (fifth) and nearly 49 ppg (third). Colorado may not know what hit it by halftime.

Why Colorado will cover: The Buffs have struggled, but that’s a big spread, especially for a team that plays games which hit the under more often than not. And they’re 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 at home. The availability of Oregon RB LaMichael James and QB Darron Thomas is in question.

Points: How powerful Oregon’s offense will be depends on the health of its stars.

Texas A&M Aggies at Iowa State Cyclones (+20, 65.5)

Why Texas A&M will cover: Texas A&M has a multifaceted offense that ranks among the nation’s best in every category. Iowa State can’t stop the run or pass. Do the math.

Why Iowa State will cover: Texas A&M has allowed 45 and 55 points in its last two games, opening up the possibility a weakness has been exposed.

Points: The over has hit in the last three games for both teams.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes (-2.5, 62)

Why Georgia Tech will cover: The Jackets are in a bit of a slump, but still 4-2-1 ATS and rank No. 2 in rush yards (348 ypg). Miami is 94th in rush yards allowed.

Why Miami will cover: Georgia Tech was 4-0-1 ATS early, but 0-2 recently. Meanwhile, Miami was 1-3 ATS to start but 2-0 since. The Canes are in full form after the early season suspensions.

Points: The under is a big hit in Miami home games the last several years, is 6-2 in GT’s last eight in the ACC and is 6-2 in these teams’ last eight meetings.

Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-22.5, 46.5)

Why Auburn will cover: LSU will be without star CB Tyrann Mathieu, RB Spencer Ware, and DB Tharold Simon, who were suspended one game for violating the team’s drug policy. Auburn is improving by leaps and bounds every week, thanks mostly to a defense that held Florida to six points last week.

Why LSU will cover: The Tigers are steamrolling everyone, with a defense that ranks in the top 15 in every major category and an offense that pounds opponents to a pulp. They are very deep and can absorb the hit from those suspensions. Auburn’s offense, by the way, is giving a sophomore QB his first career start.

Points: The under is 4-0 in Auburn’s last four, and nobody goes off on LSU’s defense.

Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos (-30.5, 64.5)

Why Air Force will cover: The Falcons can gash opponents not ready for their style (336 ypg, third). That’s a big spread against a team that will drain the clock.

Why Boise State will cover: Boise State can score at will on anybody and Air Force has one of the nation’s worst defenses. Plus, the Broncos are 24th against the run.

Points: The under is 7-2 in BSU’s last nine in conference. But every AFA game has hit the over, and Boise State can score as quickly as anybody.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (24.5, 56.5)

Why Nebraska will cover: While neither team has a defense worth worrying about, Nebraska at least has an offense to pour on the points (22nd in scoring). Minnesota, with a 109th-ranked offense, is 2-4 ATS.

Why Minnesota will cover: The Huskers are only 1-5 ATS. The Gophers have shown the ability to run the ball, and Nebraska is 74th at stopping it.

Points: The over has hit in four of NU’s last five games and in the Gophers’ last four.

Marshall Thundering Herd at Houston Cougars (-22, 59.5)

Why Marshall will cover: Despite a 3-4 overall record, Marshall is 5-2 ATS.

Why Houston will cover: The Cougars throw it more than anyone else, No. 1 in pass yards (435.5) and No. 4 in points (47.0). The Herd is No. 73 in passing defense and its offense ranks 99th or worse in everything.

Points: The under is 6-1 in Herd games, but is 2-4 for Houston.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats (4, 47.5)

Why Penn State will cover: The Lions are finding ways to win with a defense ranking sixth overall and seventh against the pass. The Wildcats are swooning, losers of four straight.

Why Northwestern will cover: Penn State may win, but it is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine.

Points: The under is 6-0-1 in PSU games, but the over has hit in Northwestern’s last three.

Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-28.5, 45.5)

Why Tennessee will cover: That can seem like an awfully high spread against a competent Vols squad, especially one that has a half-decent defense and an offense that averages 294 yards through the air.

Why Alabama will cover: The Tide is 7-1 ATS, the lone loss being a 47-point spread to North Texas (W, 41-0). Bama will score 30, but can Tennessee score at all against the No. 1 defense?

Points: Bama had held four of its seven opponents to seven points or fewer, and nobody has more than 14. The Tide may have to practically cover it alone.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners (-28.5, 69.5)

Why Texas Tech will cover: That’s an awfully big spread for a team averaging 43.8 points (ninth) and 372 yards passing (sixth). Tech is 4-2 ATS.

Why Oklahoma will cover: TTU has no shot at stopping OU’s offense, but the Sooners also have a defense that allows just 15.8 ppg.

Points: The over hit on Tech’s last five games and three of OU’s last four. We’ll see some scoring here.

Washington Huskies at Stanford Cardinal (-20.5, 61)

Why Washington will cover: This is a big statement game for the Huskies, and they have the offense to make it interesting. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five.

Why Stanford will cover: The Cardinal are the most reliable around, a perfect 6-0 ATS. Stanford has the No. 5 scoring offense and No. 5 scoring defense. It is ranked 14th in passing, while Washington is 116th in pass defense.

Points: Despite two high-octane offenses, the under has been hitting for both teams so far.

Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans (8, 47.5)

Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers are 5-0-1 ATS because their offense is No. 1 in scoring (50.7 ppg) and the defense is No. 3 (9.7). That’s a tough combo to tackle.

Why Michigan State will cover: If anyone can slow UW’s offensive juggernaut, it may be MSU, which ranks No. 3 in run defense (67 ypg) and No. 1 against the pass (119). The offense has enough juice at least stay close.

Points: The under is 5-1 for MSU games, but 2-4 for UW. And the over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24911 Followers:33
10/20/2011 10:47 PM

NCAAF Top 6: Most injury-riddled teams in college football

South Carolina came away with a 14-12 victory last Saturday against Mississippi State but lost its best player, running back Marcus Lattimore, in the process.

Lattimore, a Heisman Trophy candidate, suffered a knee injury and will miss the remainder of the season.

Before the injury, Lattimore racked up 818 yards and 10 touchdowns and was one of the few reliable pieces in South Carolina’s inconsistent offense. Former quarterback Stephen Garcia was dismissed from the team before last Saturday’s game, but his poor play and off-field behavior had already landed him in head coach Steve Spurrier’s dog house.

South Carolina has a bye this week, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Nonetheless, you’ll want to think twice before backing the Gamecocks, as their offense, which has scored 21 points or less in three of their last four SEC games, is about to get worse.

Here are five other teams battling injury, with a look at how you should bet them going forward:

Oregon Ducks (3-2-1 ATS)

Star running back LaMichael James remains out with a dislocated right elbow, an injury he sustained late in Oregon’s 43-15 victory over California on October 6, while quarterback Darron Thomas, who left in the third quarter in last week’s win against Arizona State, is expected to play at Colorado Saturday.

James insists he could play this weekend if necessary. But more likely, he won’t return until the Ducks play Washington State next week, as there is no need to rush him back.

Either way, the Ducks won’t be hurting without him. Backup Kenjon Barner ran for 171 yards and a touchdown against the Sun Devils, further proof that anybody in Chip Kelly’s offense can put up huge numbers if given the opportunity.

Florida Gators (3-3-1 ATS)

Florida lost quarterback John Brantley to a high ankle sprain in its 38-10 loss to Alabama in Week 5, and the Gators offense has been dreadful without him. The Gators have dropped three straight games after a 4-0 start, and haven’t covered the spread since September 24, when they beat Kentucky 48-10 as 17.5-point favorites.

In its two games without Brantley, Florida has scored 11 and six points. Brantley still isn’t practicing but is listed as questionable for the Gators’ October 29 game against Georgia. Until he returns, fading Florida and taking the under could be a good bet, as the offense doesn’t seem capable of scoring in the 20s without him.

Tennessee Volunteers (2-2-2 ATS)

Another SEC team, another QB problem. Tennessee signal-caller Tyler Bray is likely to miss at least the next month after breaking his right thumb late in the Vols’ 20-12 loss against Georgia on October 8. Without him, Tennessee couldn’t do much of anything against top-ranked LSU in a 38-7 home defeat.

Don’t expect a turnaround at Alabama this weekend, where the Vols are listed as 29.5-point underdogs. The Crimson Tide have the nation’s top-ranked defense and should be able to pitch a shutout.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-5 ATS)

Hey, there are key injuries on defense, too. Just ask the Cornhuskers, who lost all-world defensive tackle Jared Crick for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. But here’s the thing with Crick: His loss isn’t as big as you might think.

Crick had been playing injured since mid-September and has been largely ineffective for the past month. Consequently, Nebraska’s defense has struggled, allowing at least 27 points against all three BCS teams it has played.

The over has hit in four of Nebraska’s last five games and look for that trend to continue going forward.

Virginia Tech Hokies (2-5 ATS)

The Hokies’ banged-up defense, which has already lost three players to season-ending injuries, will be without star cornerback Jayron Hosley for this week’s game against Boston College. Hosley, who has been asked to play all over the field this season, re-aggravated a left hamstring injury in last week’s win against Wake Forest.

The good news? Virginia Tech will be up against Boston College’s awful pass offense, which ranks second-t0-last in the ACC ahead of only run-heavy Georgia Tech. This injury is unlikely to have any effect on this week’s outcome.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24911 Followers:33
10/20/2011 10:50 PM

Ear to the gridiron: Big 12 betting news and notes

Bumpy road to Bedlam

For now don't circle December 3 on your calendar.

Oklahoma State maintained their perfect record last week, but looked off rhythm in their 38-26 win over Texas. Head Coach Mike Gundy tried to downplay all the hype.

“I think there are three teams in the country that when I watch them statistically, and the little bit that I've seen of them, are really, really good football teams,” Gundy told reporters. “And then I think there are six or eight other teams that could win on any given field on any given day if they took care of the football and didn't give up big plays."

The three teams he is referring to are probably LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma, as Gundy is fully aware that the upcoming three game stretch will be the toughest of the season. This week it’s Missouri, who is 3-3 but that record is deceptive of how well the Tigers have been playing.

Among those defeats was an OT road game against ranked Arizona State, a 10-point loss to Oklahoma which is beating teams by an average of 29.5 points, and a 24-17 result with Kansas State that could have gone either way.

Even if Oklahoma State covers the 6.5 points this Saturday, they have Baylor and Kansas State next, making that showdown against Oklahoma seem light years away.

Unfashionable

Big 12 QBs are producing ridiculous passing statistics this season with Landry Jones, Seth Doege, Brandon Weeden, and Robert Griffin, all within the Top 10 in passing yards.

Which leads us to Kansas State's Collin Klein, who in last year's 39-14 win over Texas, made just four passing attempts. If you are curious only two were completed for a total of nine yards.

In a league known for its passing, Klein and the Kansas State offence has focused primarily on the run. In last week's 75-point shootout with Texas Tech, Klein threw just 18 times compared to Seth Doege's 63, but the low-profile QB did rush for 110 yards and three TDs.

Much of Kansas State's success has been attributed to the defense, and in an interview with ESPN, in which they were discussing his impressive rushing statistics, Klein deflected attention from himself and took on the same stance, “the bottom line is our defense is playing really well”

The bottom line for handicappers is that undefeated Kansas State continues to impress and provide value. The Wildcats have been underdogs for four straight games and, this week against a Kansas team that ranks 120th in yards allowed at 565, they are just 10.5-point favorites.

Tough total

The featured night game has Texas Tech travelling to Oklahoma in what should be an offensive affair. Texas Tech is on a five-game over streak and QB Seth Doege has continued the Air Raid tradition with 2,167 passing yards and 18 TDs.

However is the big spread and previous history an indication that this game could go under?

The Sooners are 28.5-point favorites and held the Red Raiders to just seven points last year. In fact, three of the last four games in this series have resulted in unders. But then again, Landry Jones and Seth Doege do have the ability to turn this into a video game.

We have mentioned that teams would try to slow down the pace, and instead what we found was that Big 12 coaches were taking the more aggressive approach and keeping games at a high pace.

Texas Tech currently leads the NCAA in plays per game at 91, while Oklahoma is fourth at 82. Texas Tech's pace has only increased, averaging 97.3 in their last three.

The total currently sits at 70.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: