10/19/2011 06:13 PM
Tech Trends - Week 8
October 19, 2011
Thursday, Oct. 20
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
UCF at UAB...UCF has won and covered last two meetings and is 5-2 vs. line last seven against UAB. Blazers only 3-5 vs. spread last 8 at Legion Field but have covered last 4 TY. Meanwhile, USF on 0-4 spread slide after covering 22 of previous 28 on board. Slight to UCF, based on team trends.
UCLA at ARIZONA...First game post-Mike Stoops for UA, d.c. Tim Kish now promoted to HC spot. Cats have beaten UCLA four straight and five of six,, all wins by 7 or more. Neuheisel on 1-8 spread run since late 2010, 3-11 last 14 on board. Bruins also 1-6 vs. points last seven on road. Although Cats only 3-11 vs. spread last 14 vs. FBS foes, and have lost ten in a row SU vs. FBS teams. Arizona, based on series trends.
Friday, Oct. 21
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
RUTGERS at LOUISVILLE...Schiano 5-1 vs. line TY. Cards on 4-13 spread run at Papa John's (no covers last five at home). Rutgers, based on team trends.
WEST VIRGINIA at SYRACUSE...Big road series, with visitor having covered last six meetings. WVU has won and covered last five at Carrier Dome, and Mountaineers have covered last 3 as reg.-season visitor. Cuse has only covered 2 of last 8 at home and both covers were by narrowest of margins (OT vs. Wake and Toledo). WVU, based on team and series trends.
Saturday, Oct. 22
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
INDIANA at IOWA...Hoosiers not exactly road warriors, now 1-7 vs. number last 8 away from Bloomington. Kirk Ferentz only 7-13 as DD chalk since 2007, 11-22 last 33 since early 2004, although Iowa 4-0-1 vs. spread last 5 at Iowa City. Slight to Iowa, based on team trends.
NC STATE at VIRGINIA...Pack getting points so note 24-12 dog mark for Tom O'Brien since 2007 (1-1-1 TY). Cavs 3-7 vs. spread last 10 as ACC host. NCS, based on team trends.
ILLINOIS at PURDUE...Zook now on 9-2 spread run last 11 away from Champaign-Urbana. Purdue just 4-8-1 vs. line last 13 at Ross-Ade. Illinois, based on team trends.
MARYLAND at FLORIDA STATE...FSU has covered 3 of last 4 in series. Jimbo 5-5 vs. spread as host since LY but Noles 5-13 vs. line last 18 as host dating to late 2008. FSU just 10-18 laying 7 or more since 2005. Terps are 7-2 vs. spread last nine away from College Park (1-0 for Edsall, the rest for Ralph). Maryland, based on team trends.
GEORGIA TECH at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Paul Johnson no wins or covers last two vs. Miami, beaten by wide margins, although Jackets had covered previous four in series. Canes just 9-18 vs. line as host since 2007. GT, based on team trends.
WAKE FOREST at DUKE...Last four "over" in series. Duke 3-1-1 vs. line last five vs. Wake. Duke 6-10-2 vs. spread last 17 at Durham. "Over" and slight to Wake, based on "totals" and team trends.
ARKANSAS at OLE MISS...Hogs have covered 6 of last 7 in series. Petrino on 13-4 spread uptick since early in 2010 campaign, now 20-9 last 29 on board. Houston Nutt 1-5 vs. line last 6 as SEC host. Arkansas, based on team and series trends.
CINCINNATI at SOUTH FLORIDA...Note Skip 4-7 as chalk since arriving at USF LY and 13-22 last 35 as chalk extending back to his ECU days. Cincy had covered six straight in series prior to 38-30 loss at Nippert LY. Cincy, especially if dog, based on team and series trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON...Clemson covers last five TY. Dabo now 12-7-1 vs. spread as host since taking over from Tommy Bowden in mid 2008. Heels covering every other week TY but are 16-8 their last 24 as dog. Slight to Clemson, based on recent trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BUFFALO...Huskies on 2-0 spread uptick, although NIU just 306 last nine as road chalk. Slight to NIU, based on recent trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA TECH...Spaziani vs. Beamer! BC only 1-5 vs. spread TY. Beamer has won and covered last three meetings handily. Spaziani now on 7-16 spread run last 23 on board. Beamer, based on series trends.
TEXAS A&M at IOWA STATE...Aggies now 4-12 vs. spread last 16 away from Kyle Field. Slight to ISU, based on recent A&M road woes.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Physical battle at Ypsilanti. Ron English now 2-10 since arriving at EMU in '09 vs. spread at Rynearson Stadium, the one-time home of the WFL Detroit Wheels. Broncos on 7-game cover streak, second-best in country behind Stanford. WMU, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO at TCU...Lobos 1-5 vs. line vs. Frogs since 2005. UNM 10-19 vs. spread against FBS foes since 2009, or post-Rocky Long. Gary Patterson 0-3 vs. line at home TY after 19-6 spread mark previous 25 at Fort Worth. TCU, based on team trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BALL STATE...CMU 1-6 vs. line TY, now 3-12 last 15 on board since early 2010 for Dan Enos. Visiting team, however, has covered last four in series, and note Ball 1-2 vs. spread at Muncie TY, 2-13 last 15 vs. line at home. Slight to CMU, based on series road and Ball home trends.
TULSA at RICE...Tulsa has won last four in series, but covered only two of those. Golden Hurricane 7-1 vs. line last 8 away from home, however. Note Rice has covered last six as host, and Owls 25-10 as home dog since 2000. Slight to Rice, based on recent trends.
ARMY at VANDERBILT...Army no covers first three away TY, as home team has covered in all six West Point games to date. Vandy 2-0 as chalk and 3-0 vs. line at home TY, although only 9-15 as home chalk since 2000. Slight to Vandy, based on recent trends.
at LA TECH at UTAH STATE...LT 4-1-1 vs. line last six meetings. Tech has also covered first three on road TY. Slight to LT, based on recent and series team trends.
TEMPLE at BOWLING GREEN...BG just 10-20 vs. spread at Doyt-Perry Stadium since 2005. Owls 3-0 vs. line away TY and 16-6 vs. spread last 22 as visitor. Temple, based on team trends.
OHIO at AKRON...Solich has won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 vs. Zips. Akron has cobbled together a 3-game cover streak and is actually 6-3 vs. number last nine on board since late LY. Solich no covers last 3 TY but is 7-3 vs. points last 10 on MAC road. Ohio, based on extended Solich numbers.
MEMPHIS at TULANE...Ugh! Tulane only 4-16 vs. spread last 20 at Superdome, but Memphis just 9-22 last 31 on board overall. Slight to Tulane, based on Memphis woes.
OKLAHOMA STATE at MISSOURI...Teams haven't played since '09, at which point OSU had won and covered two in a row vs. Mizzou. Cowboys now on 15-4 spread tear since 2010 and have covered nine straight on road. OSU, based on recent trends.
OREGON at COLORADO...Buffs no covers last 4 TY and 2-4 on line for Embree. CU now 5-10 last 15 on board since early 2010. but 7-3 last 10 as Boulder dog. Ducks only 4-8 last 12 vs. spread away from home, however. Slight to UO, based on team trends.
NEBRASKA at MINNESOTA...Who remembers Nebraska's 84-13 win in 1983 when the Huskers had possession for just over 21 minutes of action? Gophers no covers last 3 TY. Bo Pelini 10-5 last 15 as road chalk. Nebraska, based on recent trends.
UTAH at CAL...Utes 3-8-1 last 12 vs. spread since mid 2010, but Cal only 13-18 last 31 overall vs. number. Slight to Utah, based on team trends.
AIR FORCE at BOISE STATE...Boise no covers first two on blue carpet TY and now only 3-7 last 10 vs. spread at home (Broncos a better road proposition than at home lately). But Broncos still 29-12-1 last 42 on board. Force scuffling at 1-5 vs. line TY, Falcs also just 6-13 last 19 vs. spread. Boise, based on extended trends.
KANSAS STATE at KANSAS...Note Bill Snyder a 59-7 winner on this field LY. Bill Snyder has won and covered last two vs. KU since returning to KSU, continuing his series dominance from prior regime, now 13-1 SU and vs. line last 14 vs. Jayhawks. Bill Snyder, based on series and team trends.
TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA...Tech has been whipped its last three at Norman, including 45-7 loss LY. Bob Stoops 19-9 vs. line last 28 as host. Home team has covered last five in series. OU, based on team and recent series trends.
OREGON STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE (at Qwest Field, Seattle)...Beavers in revenge mode after absorbing 31-14 home loss LY, part of a 2-8 spread tailspin. Beavers were 9-1 vs. line previous 10 in series. Cougs on 10-4 spread uptick since early 2011. WSU, based on recent trends.
EAST CAROLINA at NAVY...Rematch of Navy's 76-35 win LY! Ugh! Ruffin McNeill 4-7 last 11 on board at ECU. Mids only 6-14 as Annapolis chalk since 2005 (1-12 TY). Navy, based on team trends.
FRESNO STATE at NEVADA...Chris Ault 23-7 vs. lien as Reno chalk since returning to Wolf Pack sidelines in 2004. Pack also on 3-0 spread uptick TY. Bulldogs on 24-45-1 spread slide since late 2005. Nevada, based on team trends.
MARSHALL at HOUSTON...Herd 7-4 vs. spread since late LY. Cougs 3-0 vs. Line at home TY and 7-0 vs. line as host since 2009 if throwing out injury-ravaged 2010 numbers. Slight to UH, based on extended trends.
PENN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Shades had dropped six straight vs. line prior to Iowa cover. Shades however on 2-6 spread run as visitor. Pat Fitzgerald just 3-10 vs. line last 13 at Evanston, but he's 18-13 as dog since 2007. NU, based on team trends.
MIAMI-OHIO at TOLEDO...Rockets 5-1 vs. points last six at Glass Bowl vs. MAC foes. Toledo, based on team trends.
TENNESSEE at ALABAMA...Nick 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line against UT since taking over Bama in 2007. Saban 15-6 vs. spread last 21 at Tuscaloosa, and 31-14 last 45 on board. Bama, based on team and series trends.
SOUTHERN CAL at NOTRE DAME...Lane Kiffin still only 7-11-1 vs. spread at SC and Trojans 10-20-1 last 31 on board even after Cal win. Irish have covered 3 of last 5 vs. SC at South Bend, and Brian Kelly 7-3 last 10 on board since late LY. ND, based on recent trends.
SMU at SOUTHERN MISS...June Jones 9-4 last 13 as dog at SMU. Slight to SMU, based on recent trends.
WASHINGTON at STANFORD...Both upticking as well, Stanford on nation's-best 9-game cover streak but Huskies 9-1 last 10 vs. line since late 2010. Tree, however, has won and covered last three meetings. Slight to Stanford, based on team trends.
AUBURN at LSU...Les Miles' extended home chalk numbers not so good, especially in SEC play (1-1 TY, now 2-13 last 15). Miles 3-3 SU, 2-4 vs. line against Auburn since arriving at LSU in 2005. Slight to Auburn, based on team trends.
WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN STATE...Revenge for Bielema after MSU dealt Badgers their only SU reg.-season loss LY. Dantonio only 7-8 as dog since arriving at MSU in 2007. Bielema on 12-1 spread run since mid 2010. Bielema 3-0 vs. line in revenge role LY. Wisconsin, based on team trends.
COLORADO STATE at UTEP...CSU on 3-11 spread slide last 14 on road. Rams also 1-7 last 8 on board since late LY, and 7-17 last 24 vs. spread since early '09. UTEP, based on CSU woes.
NEW MEXICO STATE at HAWAII...UH has covered nine straight reg.-season games at Aloha Stadium. DeWayne Walker 11-5 vs. spread as visitor since arriving at NMSU in 2009. Slight to UH, based on home trends.
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
UL-LAFAYETTE at WESTERN KENTUCKY...ULL on 9-game cover streak as visitor! ULL, based on road trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...MTSU has won and covered last two meetings. Blue Raiders unbeaten vs. line in first two away TY. Schnellenberger 2-9 vs. line last 11 as host, and FAU on 3-13 spread slide. MTSU, based on team and recent series trends.
ULM at NORTH TEXAS...ULM has won and covered last two meetings. Warhawks' first-ever road chalk assignment! ULM's first-ever road chalk. ULM, based on series trends.
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