FLORIDA INT'L GOLDEN PANTHERS (4-2)
at ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES (4-2)
Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Arkansas State -4
Two of the top two teams in the Sun Belt clash on Tuesday night in Jonesboro when Arkansas State hosts Florida International.
The Red Wolves have won three straight contests and are 5-1 ATS on the season. The Golden Panthers started the season 3-0 with upset wins over Louisville and UCF, but have lost two of their past three games, going 0-3 ATS. The home team has won five of the six all-time meetings between these schools, but FIU is 3-1 ATS in the past four matchups. In the past three games versus FBS competition this year, the Panthers have rushed for 582 yards (4.5 YPC), while the Wolves have gained just 173 (2.1 YPC). With ASU’s propensity to give the ball away (13 TO) compared to FIU’s great ball protection (7 TO), the pick here is FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL to win on the road.
This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Golden Panthers:
ARKANSAS STATE is 1-11 ATS (8.3%, -11.1 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. The average score was ARKANSAS STATE 15.2, OPPONENT 30.3 - (Rating = 3*).
FIU’s do-it-all star T.Y. Hilton is having another superb season with four 100-yard receiving games, including 144 in lat week’s win at Akron. In last year’s 31-24 win over ASU, Hilton caught 11 passes for 140 yards and one touchdown, and added a kick-return TD. QB Wesley Carroll has thrown for 656 yards and three touchdowns in the past two weeks, giving him 6 TD passes and only one interception for the season. RB Kedrick Rhodes has also been racking up the yards recently with 429 total yards (143 YPG) and four scores over the past three weeks.
FIU’s defense has done a nice job limiting the run this year (107 YPG, 25th in nation), allowing only one opponent to rush for 120 yards. The passing defense hasn’t been so stingy, surrendering 245 YPG, which ranks 87th among FBS schools.
Wolves QB Ryan Aplin leads the Sun Belt in total offense (304 YPG), but he has more INT (8) than TD passes (6). In the past four weeks, Aplin has tossed six picks with only three scores to show for it. Aplin is 10-of-23 for 131 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT in two career games against FIU. His favorite target continues to be senior WR Dwayne Frampton, who leads the Sun Belt in catches (7.8 per game) and ranks second behind Hilton in receiving yards (101 YPG). He has three straight 100-yard receiving games, racking up 373 yards and four total TD (2 rec, 1 rush, 1 pass) in this span. The anemic ground game has no player with 200 rushing yards this year. Frankie Jackson leads the team with 190 yards and 3 TD, but has gained just 51 yards on 19 carries (2.7 YPC) in his past three games.
On the defensive side of the ball, Arkansas State has been pretty efficient, ranking 35th in yardage (345 YPG) and holding opponents to 21.7 PPG during its three-game win streak. The front seven has been especially strong, averaging 8.0 Tackles For Loss (11th in nation) and 2.7 sacks per game (22nd among FBS schools).