My Week 2 Preview & Picks
0 Reply | 184 ViewsOn 09/13/2013 04:20 PM in NFL
Week One of the NFL season is in the books and I came out of it 1-1-1. Now I turn my attention to Week 2.
If you follow my Facebook Page (Click Here & Like it), you would have seen why I was all over the Jet/Patriots under Thursday night. That win put me at 2-0 on Thursday Nights. But now I need to focus on Sundays and get that to a winning record.
In recent years, I haven't been betting this early in the season. I had been waiting until some stats, power ranking and other trends start solidifying. However, for one reason or another this year is different, but I am treading lightly in the first few weeks so I don't risk too much of my bankroll.
I have my eyes on two games this Sunday; one of which I already place my bet before the line goes up.
San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagle
One of the reasons I tend to lay off early season games is because the Sagarin Ratings aren't very strong yet. That being said, according to those less than perfect ratings, this line is right on.
The San Diego Chargers started off well in the first half agains the Houston Texans, but, just like the Chargers of old, they fizzled in the second half and blew a huge lead. I guess I shouldn't have expected much difference. After all, the biggest change to their team was their coach.
Philly came out explosive last week in the first half. Though they might have slowed down in the second half, I am impressed with Chip Kelly's offense and think it could pose a problem for the San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers defense allowed Matt Schaub to complete 75% of his passes while also surrendering 120 yards on the ground. Those stats don't bode well for a match-up against the high flying offense of the Eagles who ran the ball 49 times and amassed 263 rushing yards.
I know there are question marks on the Eagles defense, but I think the Eagle's offense will more than make up for it this week in their home opener.
The Chargers have to travel across the country to the East Coast for a 1:00 pm ET (10:00 am PT) on a short week after their deflating Monday Night loss. It is a hard spot for the Chargers, and I see the Eagles coming out strong in their home opener after a win last Monday night.
This line opened in Vegas and online at 6.5 but was quickly bet up to 7.5. It has since settled at 7 most places, but I wouldn't be surprised in seeing the line settle at 7.5 by kick-off. I already took it at 7.5 (-115).
One note that I don't really care for is that over 85% of bettors are on Philly at BookMaker. But when I look at other consensus sites, it is more evened out. At Covers.com, 54% of bettors were on the Chargers at the time of publishing this post.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-115)
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
Andy Reid will make his home debut as the Kansas City Chiefs head coach Sunday against a familiar foe in the Dallas Cowboys. During his time as the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, Reid was 17-12 against the Dallas Cowboys including the playoffs.
While a rout of the Jaguars is hardly a litmus test for being a contender in the NFL, it is still impressive enough for a team with a new head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback.
The Cowboys had an early season NFC East match-up against the New York Giants. While Dallas came away with the win, it was hardly impressive.
Dallas won the turnover battle by intercepting Eli Manning three times and recovering another three fumbles. Even so, the Cowboys squeaked out this victory by five-points and still allowed Eli Manning to pass for 450 yards and 4 TDs.
From first sight of this line I was intrigued and was thinking Kansas City all the way. After some research, I like it even more!
Sportsbooks online and in Vegas set the opening line with Kansas City as slight home chalk at -1 to -2.5. It was quickly bet up to -3 in almost all places, where it has been holding steady at -110 odds.
According to BookMaker, 57% of their players are on Dallas while Covers is showing 55% on Dallas at the time of publishing this post. That is exactly what I expected to see, and is one of the reasons I like the Chiefs.
The Cowboys are perceived as the better team because of their notoriety, their division and their win against the Giants last week. However, there is a reason why the books set the Chiefs as home chalk. I haven't placed my bet yet, but I will be and it will be on the Kansas City Chiefs.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3