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steve_janus
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Tuesday's MLB Free Pick ---Red Sox/Rays OVER 7---

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On 09/10/2013 09:42 AM in Cappers
Boston vs. Tampa Bay, 09/10/2013 19:10
Total: -120/+7 Over

Tuesday's MLB Free Pick ---Red Sox/Rays OVER 7---

With Clay Buchholz returning from a 3 month absence and the Rays starting their ace David Price you might be inclined to bet the UNDER in this game. However, I think the value is on the OVER.

There's no question Buchholz was pitching lights out earlier this season, but you have to expect some rust in his first start since early June. He's on a limited pitch count, which tells you the arm strength just isn't quite where it needs to be. Price on the other hand comes in not throwing the ball well. He's got a 4.95 ERA over his last three starts. Hard to see him overpowering a sizzling Red Sox lineup that is averaging 8.4 runs/game over their last 7. Boston has also hit left-handed pitching very well this year. They have a .273 team average in 50 starts vs south paws and are averaging 5.1 runs/game.

4 of the last 6 meetings in Tampa Bay have gone OVER the total between these two teams this season and 7 of the last 9 overall. The OVER is also a perfect 4-0 in Price's last 4 home starts vs the Red Sox and 4-1 in Buchholz's last 5 road starts vs a team with a winning record. BET THE OVER!

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