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steve_janus
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Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick ---Florida Gators -23.5---

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On 08/30/2013 05:46 PM in Cappers
Toledo vs. Florida, 08/31/2013 12:21
Point Spread: -23½/-110 Florida

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick ---Florida Gators -23.5---

A lot of people look at the numbers Toledo put up offensively last year and the fact that they have nine starters coming back and instantly assume they will have no trouble scoring close to 20-points against a depleted Florida defense. It's a possibility, but this same high-powered offense managed just 15 points on 315 yards of total offense in their bowl loss to Utah State. Playing on the road against an SEC team is unlike anything the Toledo players have ever experienced. If things don't go their way early, I could see this game getting ugly in a hurry.

A big system that backs laying the big number in this game is Florida is 7-1 ATS over the last five years as a favorite of 23 to 27 points.

As good as Florida was last year and the fact that they come in ranked No. 10, a lot of experts are down on this team and aren't giving them much of a chance at all to contend in the SEC. Regardless if that will come true or not, Florida has heard the doubters all offseason and you have to believe they feel a bit disrespected. Don't be surprised if they take out their frustration on the Rockets.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Florida thinks they have a shot at playing for a national championship. Whenever a team has those goals in mind, they tend to run up the score against inferior teams. If the Gators jump out to a 20-point halftime lead, they aren't going to come out in the second half looking to push it to 40.

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