marksmoneymakers Posts:17043 Followers:141
On 08/24/2013 06:26 AM in MLB

Some Saturday MLB Helpful Information

Dave Essler's Satruday NFL/MLB Thoughts

Arizona-Philadelphia: Martin HAS settled down since his first game, but he's allowed a home run in all four of his starts so far. I wanted (and still might) back him, because Delgado simply isn't very good. He's a flyball pitcher (Martin has been too, so I lean over, weather depending) who's only two good outings came against San Diego and San Francisco, and the Phillies saw some of him when he was with the Braves. With that in mind, I think the wrong team is favored. Granted the D-backs have the better bats, but I can't get behind Randall.

Brewers-Reds: As we add the Brewers to the list of teams that are done, Gomez comes back but Aoki is dinged. Tough to even consider backing Peralta after the beating the Reds gave him in Milwaukee last outing. I suppose one could make the usual argument that he makes some adjustments, but not enough to bet on. Total comes out 8.5 shaded to the under, so IMO they're expecting about a 7-1 Reds win, and so am I.

Miami-Colorado: OK, who has a futures bet that the Fish would be a -200 favorite this season. I do not. The way they (Miami) play defense, there is simply no chance of even me taking the RL here, especially in a game w/a total of 7 runs projected. So, Manship has been beaten up, but this IS Miami and this IS the Rockies who CAN score. Most likely more fun to pass, but Fernandez has thrown a lot of pitches, so over is not out of the realm of possibility.

Atlanta-Cardinals: Finally, a game that actually matters to both teams. Teheran always scares me, but gets away with it in the big park known as Turner Field. And, he two-hit the Cardinals at home last month, so I'd be inclined to go the other way and take Miller. But, I don't like that he's thrown a lot of pitches lately. Still have to probably go Cardinals at home, which if it weren't "the Braves" would probably be more than -135. Slight lean to the under.

Cubs-Padres: Always looking to back Samrdzija on the road, where he's held batters to a .222 BAA as opposed to .273 at home. He's done well against the Padres, and it IS perhaps the Padres best pitcher in Stults. But, realistically, the best play here is probably the under.

Pirates-Giants: Without further adieu I tried to back Lincecum against Boston and tried to fade Liriano against the Padres and thought about it against the Cardinals. I won't do that again, so he'll pitch like he did against Colorado and lose. Won't matter, because one team needs to win and one doesn't, so Pirates or pass.

Oakland-Baltimore: If I fade the Orioles at home it's almost always against a LHP since it does take something away from Davis and Markakis, and turns Weiters around. However, Milone's been quite hittable on the road, away from one of the biggest parks in baseball. But, Tillman has thrown a ton of pitches, something like eight straight games of 100+ pitches, and he's given up 20 (correct) jacks in home games this season. That would make me inclined to take the over, and the team with the better bullpen after Friday.

Minnesota-Cleveland: Tough to even care. Cleveland at what's probably a big price or nothing. Which means nothing.

Yankees-Rays: A game that matters. Price is -170 against the Yankees for a reason, and the reason is Sabathia, IMO. There's nobody in the Yankees lineup with any real reason to go off here, based on matchup history, and the Rays seem to have their bullpen issues of a month ago worked out. Myers resting tonight, which he needs. Rays win 64% of their home games and are well above .500 against LHP's. There's no reason to think the Rays won't do to CC what they did a month ago. However, there's always Fridays' game to consider, which is yet to be played.

Toronto-Houston: I do think that "undecided" guy for the Jays is probably better than that Peacock guy for the Astros. However, it doesn't really matter. Always look at overs in this park.

Texas-Chicago: I can't see laying -200 on the road with anyone, really, and certainly not Darvish. Not that he doesn't suck, but when he's off he's really off, and when Santiago is on, he can be solid. White Sox pen pitching well and a small total, by process of elimination, I would consider the White Sox RL.

Angels-Mariners: There is no chance whatsoever of backing Vargas, even as a LHP against the Mariners. I've seen every pitch since he's come back, and he has nothing. There is very little likelihood that I could back Ramirez, either, but it would be the easier bet to make, as would the over if the roof was open.

Detroit-Mets: Ha. This game would certainly inspire Harvey, I would think. And then there's Max and his 0.90 season long WHIP. Because of Harvey, that's really a pretty cheap price on the Tigers, even on the road. And, since the Tiger don't get the DH, which either takes Victor out of the equation, or puts him behind the plate, meaning if the Mets DO get baserunners they can walk to second, so I might consider the Mets, actually.

Boston-Dodgers: Without overthinking the fact that Boston simply hammers lefties and Lester has been great, I'd have to lean Boston. Ryu isn't dominant, but what I really want to see is Adrian against Lester. Somehow, because both of these pitchers can have really bad days, I might look at the over, which might happen late once bullpens become involved, of not before.

Washington-Kansas City: Far too much love for Zimmerman here, and total disrespect for Davis. I will probably take the Royals unless something happens between now and then or bullpens get abused. Haven't checked weather, but Nationals if Desmond is healthy and are allowed to use a DH (they are) so perhaps the over, but eight is much better than 8.5.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17043 Followers:141
08/24/2013 06:32 AM

Saturday's National League Betting Cheat Sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's National League games:

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies (+100, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Diamondbacks right-hander Randall Delgado has hit his roughest stretch of the season, allowing 18 runs over his last four starts.

Hot batting stat: Arizona 1B Paul Goldschmidt is batting .400 with two homers and seven RBIs during a seven-game hitting streak.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: Philadelphia has won just once in its last 11 attempts in the second game of a series.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-190, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Wily Peralta was torched by the Reds on Monday, surrendering seven runs on eight hits while walking four over 4 1/3 innings of a 9-1 loss.

Cold batting stat: Reds 2B Brandon Phillips is just 2-for-13 lifetime against Peralta.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left-center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: Cincinnati is 10-1 in starter Bronson Arroyo's last 11 home outings against teams with losing records.

Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (-190, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez is 6-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 77 home innings.

Hot batting stat: Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki doubled twice Friday night and has six multi-hit outings in his last nine games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 4-0 in Fernandez's last four starts against teams with losing records.

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (-133, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Braves right-hander Julio Teheran is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 36 innings since the All-Star break.

Hot batting stat: Cardinals C Yadier Molina has five multi-hit performances over his last six games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Braves have won eight straight times in the third game of a series.

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-120, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardjiza is coming off his second complete game of the season, a one-run, six-hit performance in an 11-1 drubbing of the Washington Nationals.

Hot batting stat: Cubs 2B Darwin Barney has three doubles in seven career at-bats against Padres starter Eric Stults.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Chicago is 8-2 in its last 10 road games against a left-handed starter.

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants (+115, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Since allowing 10 runs in just 2 1/3 innings Aug. 9 in Colorado, Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano has held opponents to one run on eight hits over a 16-inning stretch.

Cold batting stat: Pittsburgh OF Andrew McCutchen is just 2-for-14 lifetime against San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1-1 in Liriano's last eight starts on four days' rest.

Interleague

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers (-115, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester is 7-7 with a 4.34 ERA in 17 road starts, compared to 4-0 with a 3.64 ERA at Fenway Park.

Cold batting stat: Dodgers 2B Mark Ellis has just two hits in 12 career at-bats against Lester.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Boston is 7-1 in Lester's last eight Saturday starts.

Detroit Tigers at New York Mets (+116, 6)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer has allowed two runs or fewer in six consecutive starts.

Cold batting stat: The five Mets who have faced Scherzer are a combined .188 with five strikeouts in 16 at-bats against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 4-1-1 in Scherzer's last six Saturday starts.

** Odds, probable starters and weather forecast as of 11:20 p.m. ET Friday.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17043 Followers:141
08/24/2013 07:57 AM

MARC LAWRENCE

Play On: L.A. Dodgers w/Ryu

The Dodgers and Red Sox resume their three-game series in Los Angeles Saturday afternoon where Hyun-Jin Ryu opposes Jon Lester in a battle of southpaws at Dodger Stadium. Ryu has enjoyed hurling at home in L.A. since coming over from Korea as evidenced by his 9-2 team starts record with a 1.78 ERA.
That's in direct contrast to Ryu's 4.05 ERA on the road this season. With Ryu in great KW form with 30 strikeouts and 5 walks his last five starts, and the Red Sox just 4-10 in Lester's last fourteen road starts, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17043 Followers:141
08/24/2013 07:57 AM

ART ARONSON

This is a 1* free play on the "under" between the Texas Rangers and the Chicago White Sox on Saturday night (7:10 EST).

Yu Darvish (12-5, 2.68 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Darvish is coming off an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Mariners on Sunday, giving up three runs off seven hits with four walks while striking out seven over 7 1/3's innings in his team's eventual 4-3 setback. Darvish has been as solid as you could possibly expect this season and has allowed just eight earned runs over his last six starts spanning 41 2/3's innings. He'll take his very respectable 5-2, 2.62 ERA road record into Chicago to throw opposite Hector Santiago (4-7, 3.27 ERA) who is coming off a victory over the Twins on Sunday, giving up two runs off nine scattered hits with two walks while striking out one over six innings. Santiago has now allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts and two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine outings to the bump. Anyone that's been following me for any length of time knows that "recent performance" plays a part in my handicapping repertoire and there's no debating that each of these hurlers comes into this contest with considerable momentum; whenever two pitchers of this caliber face off against each other, the "under" definitely becomes a legitimate investment opportunity.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17043 Followers:141
08/24/2013 07:57 AM

JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Milwaukee Brewers

There is a lot of value on Milwaukee today when they come into this matchup against the Reds as such a large underdog. This is a fairly even matchup from most of the key angles making this money line a little too sweet to ignore. The Brewers are batting .250 against division opponents, while the Reds have a .236 batting average against the division. Cincinnati has a .251 batting average at home this year, while Milwaukee is not far behind at .249 on the road. Both teams average close to four runs per game.

A couple bad games have really thrown-off Wily Peralta's stats. He has had strong performances in two of this last three starts. Peralta went 8 innings and gave up just four hits and two earned runs on the road against Seattle, and he went 6.3 innings on the road against the Giants, giving up just one earned run. Bronson Arroyo is coming off one of his less impressive games. Even though the Reds beat Arizona, Arroyo gave up 7 hits in 6 innings, including a home run, and allowed 3 earned runs in total. Those numbers are hardly terrible, but it reflects how close the matchup is at starting pitcher. The value is on Milwaukee in this game.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17043 Followers:141
08/24/2013 07:58 AM

JEFFREY BRANDES

Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals

Pitchers:
Washington Nationals: J. Zimmermann - R
Kansas City Royals: W. Davis - R

Jordan Zimmermann is 1-1 with a 6.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wade Davis has a 4.91 ERA in his last 3 starts.

RECOMMENDATION: OVER (8 ov-115)

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17043 Followers:141
08/24/2013 07:58 AM

DOUG UPSTONE

GAME: Boston Red Sox (75-54) at Los Angeles Dodgers (75-52)
DATE/TIME: Saturday, August 24 - 4:05 PM EST
WHERE: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Cheap price for the hot Dodgers here with Ryu on the hill vs Lester and the Red Sox. Ryu's era is a full run below that of Lester's. Play Los Angeles Saturday afternoon.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17043 Followers:141
08/24/2013 09:03 AM

Baseball Crusher

New York Mets +119 over Detroit Tigers

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17043 Followers:141
08/24/2013 09:22 AM

CHASE DIAMOND

9* MLB DIAMOND DOMINATOR

Arizona vs. Philadelphia
Money Line: Philadelphia-105

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17043 Followers:141
08/24/2013 09:23 AM

PAUL LEINER

100* Dodgers -125

50* Mariners -130

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