Some Saturday MLB Helpful Information
13 Replies | 296 ViewsOn 08/24/2013 06:26 AM in MLB
Arizona-Philadelphia: Martin HAS settled down since his first game, but he's allowed a home run in all four of his starts so far. I wanted (and still might) back him, because Delgado simply isn't very good. He's a flyball pitcher (Martin has been too, so I lean over, weather depending) who's only two good outings came against San Diego and San Francisco, and the Phillies saw some of him when he was with the Braves. With that in mind, I think the wrong team is favored. Granted the D-backs have the better bats, but I can't get behind Randall.
Brewers-Reds: As we add the Brewers to the list of teams that are done, Gomez comes back but Aoki is dinged. Tough to even consider backing Peralta after the beating the Reds gave him in Milwaukee last outing. I suppose one could make the usual argument that he makes some adjustments, but not enough to bet on. Total comes out 8.5 shaded to the under, so IMO they're expecting about a 7-1 Reds win, and so am I.
Miami-Colorado: OK, who has a futures bet that the Fish would be a -200 favorite this season. I do not. The way they (Miami) play defense, there is simply no chance of even me taking the RL here, especially in a game w/a total of 7 runs projected. So, Manship has been beaten up, but this IS Miami and this IS the Rockies who CAN score. Most likely more fun to pass, but Fernandez has thrown a lot of pitches, so over is not out of the realm of possibility.
Atlanta-Cardinals: Finally, a game that actually matters to both teams. Teheran always scares me, but gets away with it in the big park known as Turner Field. And, he two-hit the Cardinals at home last month, so I'd be inclined to go the other way and take Miller. But, I don't like that he's thrown a lot of pitches lately. Still have to probably go Cardinals at home, which if it weren't "the Braves" would probably be more than -135. Slight lean to the under.
Cubs-Padres: Always looking to back Samrdzija on the road, where he's held batters to a .222 BAA as opposed to .273 at home. He's done well against the Padres, and it IS perhaps the Padres best pitcher in Stults. But, realistically, the best play here is probably the under.
Pirates-Giants: Without further adieu I tried to back Lincecum against Boston and tried to fade Liriano against the Padres and thought about it against the Cardinals. I won't do that again, so he'll pitch like he did against Colorado and lose. Won't matter, because one team needs to win and one doesn't, so Pirates or pass.
Oakland-Baltimore: If I fade the Orioles at home it's almost always against a LHP since it does take something away from Davis and Markakis, and turns Weiters around. However, Milone's been quite hittable on the road, away from one of the biggest parks in baseball. But, Tillman has thrown a ton of pitches, something like eight straight games of 100+ pitches, and he's given up 20 (correct) jacks in home games this season. That would make me inclined to take the over, and the team with the better bullpen after Friday.
Minnesota-Cleveland: Tough to even care. Cleveland at what's probably a big price or nothing. Which means nothing.
Yankees-Rays: A game that matters. Price is -170 against the Yankees for a reason, and the reason is Sabathia, IMO. There's nobody in the Yankees lineup with any real reason to go off here, based on matchup history, and the Rays seem to have their bullpen issues of a month ago worked out. Myers resting tonight, which he needs. Rays win 64% of their home games and are well above .500 against LHP's. There's no reason to think the Rays won't do to CC what they did a month ago. However, there's always Fridays' game to consider, which is yet to be played.
Toronto-Houston: I do think that "undecided" guy for the Jays is probably better than that Peacock guy for the Astros. However, it doesn't really matter. Always look at overs in this park.
Texas-Chicago: I can't see laying -200 on the road with anyone, really, and certainly not Darvish. Not that he doesn't suck, but when he's off he's really off, and when Santiago is on, he can be solid. White Sox pen pitching well and a small total, by process of elimination, I would consider the White Sox RL.
Angels-Mariners: There is no chance whatsoever of backing Vargas, even as a LHP against the Mariners. I've seen every pitch since he's come back, and he has nothing. There is very little likelihood that I could back Ramirez, either, but it would be the easier bet to make, as would the over if the roof was open.
Detroit-Mets: Ha. This game would certainly inspire Harvey, I would think. And then there's Max and his 0.90 season long WHIP. Because of Harvey, that's really a pretty cheap price on the Tigers, even on the road. And, since the Tiger don't get the DH, which either takes Victor out of the equation, or puts him behind the plate, meaning if the Mets DO get baserunners they can walk to second, so I might consider the Mets, actually.
Boston-Dodgers: Without overthinking the fact that Boston simply hammers lefties and Lester has been great, I'd have to lean Boston. Ryu isn't dominant, but what I really want to see is Adrian against Lester. Somehow, because both of these pitchers can have really bad days, I might look at the over, which might happen late once bullpens become involved, of not before.
Washington-Kansas City: Far too much love for Zimmerman here, and total disrespect for Davis. I will probably take the Royals unless something happens between now and then or bullpens get abused. Haven't checked weather, but Nationals if Desmond is healthy and are allowed to use a DH (they are) so perhaps the over, but eight is much better than 8.5.