You are using an old web browser. Such browsers do not support modern web technologies and do not offer proper security. Please update your browser or download one of the others suggested for free.
Mozilla Firefox |
Google Chrome |
Internet Explorer |
The Reds have been red hot, but facing the Cubs can make any team get on a roll. Now they have to face Kyle Lohse and the Brewers on the road where they are 1-5 in their last 6 visits. The Brewers are still capable of getting wins despite the absence of a lot of their stars and Kyle Lohse is a huge reason as he posts a 2.50 ERA over his last 5 starts. What is even more amazing is that he has a 1.92 ERA over his last 8 starts against the Reds dating back to 2009. He is also on 5 days rest for this match up where he has a 2.62 ERA this year when on 5-6 days rest. The Brewers are also 7-0 in their last 7 home games and will face a lefty which their offense has hit well.
Tony Cingrani has been fantastic but he's on 4 days rest and he already struggles with control. The Brewers are facing him for the third time already which is a lot since Cingrani has not been starting for long. The Brewers are ranked 8th in OPS vs. LHP and over their last 10 games they are hitting .316 and scoring 10.70 runs per 9 vs. LHP. I think they could break out here again with some more runs while the Reds struggle against a quality pitcher that they have a history of struggling against and in case you are wondering the Brewers bullpen has been terrific posting a 1.93 ERA over the last 10 games.
08/15 8:10 PM EST MLB (905) CINCINNATI REDS VS (906) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: A pair of red-hot pitchers who have excellent control are on the mound. Cincinnati has Tony Cingrani (2.87 ERA), who has a 1.59 ERA his last three starts striking out 23 in 17 innings with only 5 walks! The under is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 road games. They face a weak Milwaukee offense and the under is 12-2 in Brewers last 14 home games. At least they have Kyle Lohse (3.26 ERA) going, who has a 2.50 ERA his last three starts. And when these teams meet the under is 19-6-3 in the last 28 meetings. Play the Reds/Brewers under the total.
When the Nats host the Giants in the finale of this three-game series in the nation's capitol, Washington will send Dan Haren to the hill against Ryan Vogelsong knowing Haren is 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA his last five home team starts versus San Francisco.
With Haren in strong KW form with 19 strikeouts and 3 walks his last three starts, and Vogelsong owning a wobbly KW ratio of 7 strikeouts and 6 walks his last three starts, we'll stay at home with the Nationals here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.
This is a 1* free play on the "under" between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday afternoon (1:45 EST).
AJ Burnett (5-8, 2.95 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Burnett is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off eight hits and three walks while striking out three over 5 2/3's innings in his team's eventual 6-4 setback at hitter friendly Coors Field on Saturday. Burnett has been as solid as you can expect this year though, with efforts likes his previous being a definite oddity (note that the veteran had given up just one earned run in each of his previous three outings). Burnett will bring his respectable 3-3 and sparkling 2.42 ERA road record into St. Louis to throw opposite Lance Lynn (13-6, 3.79 ERA) who was unfortunate to get saddled with a loss after giving up three runs off three scattered hits and five walks while striking out five over 6 2/3's innings in a 3-0 setback to the Cubs on Friday. Despite the unfortunate result, Lynn has given up seven earned runs spanning his last 27 2/3's frames of work. And while past success guarantees nothing in the future, Lynn will be throwing with the added confidence today in knowing that in three earlier meetings vs. the Bucs this season he's for the most part absolutely dominated them, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA (take note of Lynn's home numbers as well; a healthy 8-2 with a sharp 2.78 ERA). This series has featured some great matchups on the mound and this particular one is no exception; two quality hurlers facing off means that the "under" once again becomes a legitimate investment opportunity.
Jake Peavy has been a bit overrated since making the move to Boston. That has created a strong value play on the Blue Jays for today's matchup. Peavy has a 5.68 ERA in his last three starts and he has a 6.65 ERA on the road this season. For Toronto, Mark Buehrle has a 3.09 ERA at home and the Blue Jays are 9-3 in his 12 home starts.
Boston is at their worst when facing a left handed starter. Their scoring average drops from 5 runs per game down to 4.4 against lefties, and they go from a .273 batting average to a .260 batting average in those games. The Blue Jays have done a great job of putting runs on the board at home. They score 5.0 runs per game and should have no problem exceeding that average today against Peavy.
-- Lynn is 2-1, 2.28 in his last four starts.
-- Haren is 3-0, 1.29 in his last three starts.
-- Milwaukee won last five Lohse starts (3-0, 2.03). Cingrani is 2-1, 2.66 in his last four starts.
-- Ross is 3-1, 1.33 in his last four starts. Wheeler is 2-0, 1.77 in his last three road starts.
-- Wilson is 4-0, 3.69 in his last six starts.
-- Sanchez is 3-1, 1.60 in his last five starts. Guthrie is 4-1, 3.55 in his last five outings.
-- Buehrle is 3-0, 2.63 in his last four starts.
-- Pirates lost Burnett's last four road starts (0-2, 6.56).
-- Vogelsong is 1-2, 8.31 in his last four starts.
-- Hughes is 0-4, 7.39 in his last six starts.
-- Houston lost last seven Bedard starts (0-5, 4.91). Gray lost his first start in majors, allowing four runs in six IP.
-- Peavy has a 6.00 RA in his first two starts for Boston.
-- Saunders is 1-3, 10.35 in his last four starts. Cobb is making first start since June 15, when he was hit in head by line drive (0-0, 4.50 in last three).
-- Pelfrey is 0-4, 4.83 in his last six starts. Rienzo is 0-0, 4.42 in three starts this season.
Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Burnett 5-21; Lynn 6-24
-- Vogelsong 5-10; Haren 4-21
-- Cingrani 4-14 (3 of last 4); Lohse 7-24 (0 of last 6)
-- Wheeler 4-10 (0 of last 3); Ross 3-7
-- Wilson 5-23 (1 of last 11); Hughes 6-22 (1 of last 8)
-- Bedard 11-21; Gray 1-1
-- Guthrie 6-24 (0 of last 4); Sanchez 5-20
-- Peavy 2-15; Buehrle 6-24
-- Saunders 7-24; Cobb 3-13
-- Rienzo 0-3; Pelfrey 8-21
-- Five of Burnett's last six road starts went over the total.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in San Francisco's last twelve games.
-- Eight of last nine Cincinnati road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Wheeler starts went over the total.
-- Ten of last thirteen Angel games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Bedard starts.
-- Six of last eight Detroit games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Toronto games.
-- Six of last seven Seattle games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Minnesota games.
-- Washington won its last five games, scoring 33 runs.
-- Cincinnati won seven of its last eight games. Milwaukee is 5-3 in last eight.
-- Bronx Bombers won five of their last six games.
-- Kansas City won 17 of its last 22 games, but lost last two.
-- Mariners won three of their last four road games.
-- Minnesota is 8-5 in its last thirteen games.
-- Pirates lost four of their last five games; St Louis lost five of its last seven.
-- Giants lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Padres lost seven of their last ten games. Mets lost nine of their last thirteen road games.
-- Angels lost 14 of their last 19 games.
-- Oakland is 3-6 in last nine games. Astros lost 24 of their last 31 games, but won the last two.
-- Detroit lost four of its last six games.
-- Toronto lost five of its last seven games. Red Sox lost four of last six.
-- Tampa Bay lost six of its last seven games.
-- White Sox lost 14 of their last 20 games.