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08/22/2013 01:52 AM
NFC North preview: Packers too much for division foes?


Chicago Bears (2012: 10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +350
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Bears: Chicago deserved to make the playoffs last season. They finished with a 10-6 record, and they ranked higher than seven teams that made the playoffs in my power ratings. RB Matt Forte is solid, and the Bears’ defense returned to form last year. That combination will win games for Chicago this season, and if their offensive line comes together, the Bears should earn a playoff spot in 2013.

Why not to bet the Bears: As mentioned above, the offensive line is key to Chicago’s success. The unit still has glaring needs, and it’s been that way for the last few years. The Bears’ offensive line needs stability to keep QB Jay Cutler upright. As with most quarterbacks in the NFL, time is of the essence. And it’s extremely critical for the slow-footed Cutler. The passing game suffered because of the line, and unless they improve, throwing downfield and winning games will be an issue once again.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Detroit Lions (2012: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS)

Odds to win division: +550
Season win total: 8.0

Why to bet the Lions: Detroit has a positive outlook for 2013 because they actually played more like .500 team last season. The Lions were only out-scored by just over 3 points per game relative to their opponents’ performances. QB Matthew Stafford has already proven he can play at a high level when healthy, and WR Calvin Johnson is one of the game’s best.

Why not to bet the Lions: The Lions’ defense allowed too many points per game (27.3) last season and that put too much pressure on the offense to out-score teams every week. Detroit needs significant defensive improvement to be a winning team. The offensive line was in shambles in 2012, and concern is still there heading into 2013.

Season win total pick: Under 8.0


Green Bay Packers (2012: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: -145
Season win total: 10.5

Why to bet the Packers: Green Bay is certainly a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2013. The Packers will once again be a formidable opponent for every team, especially with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The Packers have won 10 games or more in four consecutive seasons and in five of the last six seasons overall.

Why not to bet the Packers: The Packers struggled early last season; they were just 2-3 after five games. Green Bay has shown a pattern of September sluggishness; the Packers have started with a 2-2 record or worse in four of the last five seasons. The slow starts have cost them to miss the playoffs just once (2008), but they cannot keep relying on getting hot down the stretch each and every year. That is especially true this season as they play my 8th toughest schedule.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


Minnesota Vikings (2012: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +700
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Vikings: RB Adrian Peterson had a monster 2012 for Minnesota. Without him, the Vikings would have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Vikings ranked #2 in rushing the ball, and as long as AP stays on the field, Minnesota can be competitive and win ballgames.

Why not to bet the Vikings: Minnesota and QB Christian Ponder ranked No. 31 in passing the football. The Vikings’ defense was mediocre at best overall, but terrible in defending the pass. They were also fortunate as half of their wins (5 of 10) came by 7 points or less while their six losses came by 11.8 points per game. Look for a major regression from the Vikings in 2013, especially since they play in a tough division. Minnesota will be a good team to play-against, especially when they are laying points.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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08/22/2013 05:47 PM
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/19/13 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
08/18/13 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
08/17/13 7-­4-­1 63.64% +­1300 Detail
08/16/13 7-­1-­0 87.50% +­2950 Detail
08/15/13 5-­3-­0 62.50% +­850 Detail
08/11/13 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
08/10/13 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
08/09/13 7-­9-­0 43.75% -­1450 Detail
08/08/13 6-­6-­0 50.00% -­300 Detail
08/04/13 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail

Totals 37-­28-­1 56.92% +3100


Thursday, August 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 7:30 PM ET New England +2.5 500 POD # 3

Detroit - Over 46 500 POD # 4


Carolina - 8:00 PM ET Carolina +3 500 POD # 1

Baltimore - Under 42 500 POD # 2
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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08/22/2013 06:33 PM
Pro Football Trend Report

NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) at DETROIT (1 - 1) - 8/22/2013, 7:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that
apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons

DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons

0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CAROLINA (1 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 0) - 8/22/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.

CAROLINA is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.


Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

SEATTLE (2 - 0) at GREEN BAY (1 - 1) - 8/23/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.

SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

SEATTLE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games since 1993.

SEATTLE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road lined games since 1993.

SEATTLE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


CHICAGO (1 - 1) at OAKLAND (1 - 1) - 8/23/2013, 10:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


BUFFALO (2 - 0) at WASHINGTON (2 - 0) - 8/24/2013, 4:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NY JETS (1 - 1) at NY GIANTS (1 - 1) - 8/24/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.

NY JETS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC East division opponents since 1993.

NY GIANTS are 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.

NY GIANTS are 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History

NY GIANTS is 1-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons

NY GIANTS is 1-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CLEVELAND (2 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 1) - 8/24/2013, 7:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 2) - 8/24/2013, 7:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

TAMPA BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 2) - 8/24/2013,
7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

KANSAS CITY is 13-35 ATS (-25.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 28-54 ATS (-31.4 Units) in all games since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 28-54 ATS (-31.4 Units) in all lined games since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) as an underdog since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road lined games since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 19-39 ATS (-23.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) - 8/24/2013,
7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.

JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


ATLANTA (0 - 2) at TENNESSEE (0 - 2) - 8/24/2013, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ST LOUIS (0 - 2) at DENVER (1 - 1) - 8/24/2013, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


CINCINNATI (2 - 0) at DALLAS (1 - 2) - 8/24/2013, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


SAN DIEGO (0 - 2) at ARIZONA (2 - 0) - 8/24/2013, 10:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NEW ORLEANS (2 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 0) - 8/25/2013, 4:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

NEW ORLEANS is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games since 1993.

NEW ORLEANS is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road lined games since 1993.

NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games in
non-conference games since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History

HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons

HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MINNESOTA (0 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) - 8/25/2013, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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08/23/2013 10:33 AM
Friday's Betting Notes

August 23, 2013


Preseason Trends

-- Home teams went 13-3 in Week 2

-- Favorites went 13-3 straight up and 11-5 against the spread in Week 2. The Ravens and Bears were the only two teams that failed to cover the point-spread in their victories

-- After watching the ‘over’ go 12-5 in the first 17 preseason games, the ‘under’ went 8-7-1 in Week 2

-- Prior to last night, 10 teams were unbeaten (2-0) and nine are winless (0-2) in the preseason

-- Seattle and Baltimore have both scored 71 points in their first two games, while Jacksonville (16) and Green Bay (19) have struggled offensively

-- Arizona has been the best defensive team so far, allowing seven points in two games. Tampa Bay (69), Jacksonville (64) and San Diego (64) have all struggled on the defensive side.

-- Rookie coaches have gone 8-6 in the preseason

-- Thursday’s action watched both games go ‘over’ the total. The home and road teams went 1-1 and the favorites and underdogs split as well both SU and ATS.

Seattle at Green Bay (CBS, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Preseason Notes

Seattle

Week 1 – Seattle 31 at San Diego 10
The Seahawks led 7-3 at halftime before outscoring the Chargers 24-7 in the second-half. Backup QBs Tarvaris Jackson and Brady Quinn passed for 187 yards and three touchdowns.

Week 2 – Seattle 40 vs. Denver 10 (Over 42)
The Seahawks led 33- 7 at halftime with the help of two touchdowns from their defense and special teams. QB Russell Wilson connected on 67 percent (8-of-12) of his passes for 127 yards and two touchdowns.

Green Bay

Week 1 - Green Bay 0 vs. Arizona 17
The Packers starting offensive unit had an early opportunity to score in the first quarter but turned the ball over on downs inside the Cardinals five-yard-line. Arizona led 14-0 at the break.

Week 2 – Green Bay 19 at St. Louis 7
The Packers led 9-0 at halftime and built a 19-0 lead in the fourth quarter before the Rams scored a late touchdown. QB Aaron Rodgers was 10-of-12 for 134 yards.

QB Rotations

Seattle – Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Brady Quinn

Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, Vince Young, B.J. Coleman (Rookie – Chattanooga)

Coaching Notes (Overall Records)

Pete Carroll - 9-5
Carroll started 1-3 both SU and ATS in preseason games but has gone 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in his last 10 games.

Mike McCarthy - 15-15
Total players noticed that McCarthy watched the ‘over’ go 20-8 (71%) in his first seven preseason slates but the ‘under’ is 2-0 this August and currently on a 5-1 (86%) run.

Dress Rehearsal - Week 3 Records (2010-2012)

Seattle - (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, Over 2-1)
2012 - Seattle 44 at Kansas City 14 (Over 40)
2011 – Seattle 20 at Denver 23 (Over 36.5)
2010 – Seattle 13 at Minnesota 24 (Under 39)

Green Bay (3-0, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 Over)
2012 - Green Bay 27 at Cincinnati 13 (Under 43)
2011 – Green Bay 24 at Indianapolis 21 (Over 40)
2010 – Green Bay 59 vs. Indianapolis 24 (Over 44.5)

Chicago at Oakland (10:00 p.m. ET)

Chicago

Week 1 – Chicago 17 Carolina 24
The Bears and Panthers both scored defensive touchdowns via interceptions. Chicago passed for 277 yards but was intercepted twice.

Week 2 – Chicago 33 vs. San Diego 28
The Chargers trailed the Bears 20-7 at halftime. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst helped the Bolts outscore Chicago 21-13 with two touchdown passes.

Oakland

Week 1 – Oakland 19 vs. Dallas 17 (Over 35.5)
The Raiders trailed 10-6 after two quarters but rallied in the second-half with 13 points, including a game-winning field goal.

Week 2 – Oakland 20 at New Orleans 28 (Over 42.5)
The Raiders trailed 23-7 at halftime before outscoring the Saints 13-5 in the final two quarters. Drew Brees diced up Oakland for 202 yards on 14-of-18 attempts.

QB Rotations

Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Trent Edwards, Jordan Palmer
Starters are expected to play at least the first-half for the Bears.

Oakland - Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Matt McGloin (Rookie – Penn State), Tyler Wilson (Rookie, Arkansas)
Starters are expected to play the first-half and possibly into the second-half. The Raiders could use all four quarterbacks against the Bears.

Coaching Notes (Overall Records)

Marc Trestman 1-1 (0-2 ATS)
The seven rookie coaches in the NFL have gone 8-6 in the preseason, which includes Trestman’s ledger. The ‘over’ has cashed in both of his first two games.

Dennis Allen 2-4
Allen is 0-3 in his first three preseason games on the road.

Dress Rehearsal - Week 3 Records (2010-2012)

Chicago - (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, Under 3-0)
2012 – Chicago 20 at N.Y. Giants 17 (Under 41)
2011 – Chicago 13 at Tennessee 14 (Under 35.5)
2010 – Chicago 9 vs. Arizona 14 (Under 38)

Oakland - (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, Over 3-0)
2012 - Oakland 31 vs. Detroit 20 (Over 42)
2011 – Oakland 20 vs. New Orleans 40 (Over 38)
2010 – Oakland 28 vs. San Francisco 24 (Over 37.5)
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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08/23/2013 10:52 AM
NFL Top 5: Long-shot rushing yardage leaders

Bettors who put their faith in Adrian Peterson last season were rewarded handsomely. Peterson racked up more than 2,000 yards on the ground, and comes into 2013 as the clear favorite to repeat as the league's rushing champion - but he'll have plenty of competition.

Here are five running backs with an outside chance of being this year's top rusher (odds courtesy CarbonSports.ag):

Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins (+1,200)

Morris burst onto the scene as a rookie, going from a starter on a 1-11 Florida Atlantic team to the NFL's second-leading rusher (1,613 yards). With a year of professional experience under his belt and a quarterback in Robert Griffin III who keeps defenses honest both with his legs and his arm, Morris could be in for another huge year.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs (+1,500)

Charles remains underappreciated by oddsmakers despite racking up the fourth-most yards in the league last season, buoyed by the third-highest yards-per-carry average among running backs. He's a perennial injury risk, but a season of relatively good health would almost certainly result in a bump up from the 285 carries he had last season - a development that would make him a legitimate threat to lead the league in yards.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens (+3,000)

The emergence of Bernard Pierce as a solid backup has some wondering if Rice's days as the Ravens' primary offensive weapon are behind him. But he's still just 26, has three 1,200-yard seasons behind him and is coming off a reasonable workload (257 carries) in an offense that will need to rely on the run following the loss of wide receiver Anquan Boldin and tight end Dennis Pitta.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (+3,000)

All eyes will be on the diminutive power back as he makes his much-publicized return from a Lisfranc injury that limited him to just six games in 2012. Jones-Drew says he's feeling good - and as a guy who won the 2011 rushing title and will be playing for a new contract this season, that might just be enough to vault him to the top of the list.

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (+6,500)

With 2012 starter Reggie Bush signing in Detroit, Miller comes into the season in stiff competition with Daniel Thomas for the No. 1 role. Miller is easily the faster and more elusive of the two, and a few big games early in the season could earn him the undisputed starting job - and with it, a shot at making his long odds pay off.
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08/23/2013 10:53 AM
NFL preseason primer: Friday game betting breakdown

Here's a quick look at what to expect in Friday's two NFL preseason tilts.

Seattle at Green Bay (+2, 43)

This is a rematch from the infamous “Fail Mary” game from last year’s regular season that in many ways set the tone for both teams’ regular seasons. For a second straight year, the Seahawks have looked great in the preseason. Last year’s 4-0 campaign introduced us all to the exploits of future MVP candidate (yes, you read that right) QB Russell Wilson, and so far they are 2-0 in 2013, making it six consecutive double digit wins in the preseason under head coach Pete Carroll. That’s a big reason why they are favored here on the road. After humiliating Denver last week, 40-10, the Seahawks have now outscored their two preseason opponents this year 71-20.

Green Bay is 1-1 in the preseason, having responded from a 17-0 shutout loss to Arizona in the opening game with a 19-7 win last week at St. Louis. Reportedly, Mike McCarthy was unhappy with the team’s practice on Wednesday. The coaching staff has not made a decision on how much time the starters will play Friday, but it figures to be longer than the first two games combined. QB Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a TD pass this preseason, albeit he’s only been on the field for four drives total. Both Packers’ starting wide receivers – Randall Cobb & Jordy Nelson - are not 100%.

Chicago at Oakland (+3.5, 38)

Both road teams are favored Friday night. The Bears and Raiders each come into this game at 1-1 SU. The Bears are 0-2 ATS, though the loss of Coach Lovie Smith has not affected the defense’s propensity to force turnovers. In two games, Chicago has an incredible eight takeaways. The problem though is new head coach Marc Trestman was brought in to improve QB Jay Cutler, who has not looked good so far. Last week saw Cutler play a full quarter, and while he completed 4 of 5 passes, the only receiver he targeted was Brandon Marshall. Though they put up 33 points in the win over San Diego, the offense had only 13 first downs and 185 total yards. Thanks to special teams and defense, they routinely benefited from good field position.

Oakland lost last week in New Orleans, 28-20 as six-point dogs. After one quarter, they trailed 17-0. The offensive line stunk, allowing QB Matt Flynn to be sacked five times. The defense was no better, allowing Saints QB Drew Brees to throw for 220 yards and direct five scoring drives. Making matters worse, the team suffered eight injuries according to Head Coach Dennis Allen.
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08/23/2013 05:44 PM
Friday, August 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:00 PM ET Seattle -2 500 POD # 3

Green Bay - Under 43 500 POD # 4


Chicago - 10:00 PM ET Oakland +3.5 500 POD # 1

Oakland - Over 38 500 POD # 2
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08/24/2013 09:27 AM
Saturday's Betting Notes

August 24, 2013


Preseason Trends

-- Road teams are 3-1 in Week 3
-- Favorites are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in Week 3
-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 in Week 3

Quick Hitters

-- Eight teams will be looking for their first preseason win on Saturday and there are two matchups that pit winless clubs against one another – Kansas City at Pittsburgh, Atlanta at Tennessee.
-- Five teams remain undefeated (2-0) in the preseason. Buffalo and Washington are two of those and they will square off in a late- afternoon battle from D.C. at 4:30 p.m. ET.
-- Three teams in action on Saturday, Tampa Bay (69), Jacksonville (64) and San Diego (64) have all struggled on the defensive side.
-- Philadelphia is the only road favorite listed on Saturday.
-- All totals are listed above 40 except the Giants-Jets matchup, which is hovering between 38 and 39 points.
-- Arizona has only surrendered seven points in the preseason.

Who’s the Boss?

Our friend “The SportsBoss” broke down QB rotations at the start of the preseason and listed seven units that he believed to have a distinct advantage in the exhibitions. Through two weeks of exhibition games, those teams were 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS.

Arizona (2-0)
Baltimore (2-1)
Carolina (2-1)
Cincinnati (2-0)
Cleveland (2-0)
New Orleans (2-0)
Washington (2-0)

The record dropped this week automatically with Carolina beating Baltimore 34-27 on Thursday. Even though you have five more possible winners with this angle in Week 3, you might want to tread lightly since starters are expected to receive more minutes in the dress rehearsals. However, Week 4 might present value with the seven teams above.

Week 3 Coaching Angles

New York Giants - Tom Coughlin is 2-7 ATS in his last nine dress rehearsals.
Cincinnati Bengals – Marvin Lewis is 2-8 ATS in his last 10 dress rehearsals.

Preseason Betting Trends from Tony Stoffo

Buffalo Bills - The Bills have started a money making preseason trend the last three years having seen the Over be the winning side in their last three dress rehearsal games with 38-7, 35-32, and 35-20 finals. This year’s dress rehearsal game is against the Redskins on Aug. 24th. I have to add here that Washington in their last 2 dress rehearsal games have seen a combined 112 points scored - So this play can turn into a preseason double unit play here on the Over.

Atlanta Falcons - One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last eight years the Falcons have gone a perfect 8-0 outscoring their opposition 187-61 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 24 when they play Tennessee on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 4-21 (16%) against the spread over the past six years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for new head coach Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not giving a dame about these preseason games. The Chiefs are 0-2 this season with Reid in control.

Expert Thoughts

Below is analysis on a handful of games that you would find in our pro football products on VegasInsider.com.

Washington vs. Buffalo – Joe Nelson

The Bills have faced some tough luck with rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel getting injured last week and likely to miss the remainder of the preseason, essentially handing the starting job to Kevin Kolb despite his marginal track record. This is a critical game for Kolb to impress as Manuel and rookie Jeff Tuel have provided most of the offensive success so far this preseason for the Bills. Buffalo is playing up-tempo on offense which will be hard for Washington to adjust to on a short week after playing Monday night. Coach Marrone was very upset after the Week 2 game despite a win as penalties were in the forefront. Look for a crisper performance all around this week from Buffalo. Mike Shanahan is known for a strong historical mark in preseason games, 2-0 this season after Monday’s 24-13 win over Pittsburgh. The short week will have a big impact on Washington as starters are only expected to clock about 20 plays in this game before going to deeper reserves and fighting out position battles. Coach Marrone and the Bills are 2-0 in the preseason and the defense has been aggressive, something that is rare in the preseason NFL. Buffalo is mixing looks with a both 3-4 and 4-3 packages and it has been effective at confusing teams through two weeks. The secondary has also been a bright spot for the Bills on defense. With Shanahan and his preseason track record, going 52-30 S/U in preseason games, this line is inflated even with key players likely to see limited time with the awkward scheduling for the Redskins.

Indianapolis vs. Cleveland – Jimmy Boyd

The Browns have had some solid matchup advantages in the first two games on the preseason schedule. They faced the first string defense from the Rams for just one quarter. In Week 2 they faced a Lions team that has one of the worst defensive secondaries in the league. The Colts are certainly not a defensive powerhouse, but they will be the toughest challenge the Browns have faced, and Indianapolis has the luxury of playing in front of their home crowd. Cleveland's defense is also in for a challenge when they face off against Andrew Luck and his wealth of solid receivers. The Colts have been keeping the starters on the field longer as we progress through the preseason schedule.

Tennessee vs. Atlanta – Pat Hawkins

The Falcons have excelled over the last several years in Week 3 of the preseason. They take this game seriously and keep the starters in for all of the first half. They have gone 8-0 ATS in the "dress rehearsal" game in the last eight years, look for the trend to continue as the Falcons have plenty of fire power on offense to extend a nice size lead.

Dallas vs. Cincinnati – Bruce Marshall

Even in preseason, the old "better team getting the points" theory has a lot of substance. Here is another case; having watched Dallas in all three games, I have been completely unimpressed, especially the offense which has put almost nothing together. Dolphin game very fluky, a loss to the lowly Raiders and outplayed worse than the score indicated by Arizona does not bode well. Perhaps Romo's recovery from the back issues have slowed the progress of the offense throughout summer, but execution has been spotty at best, and not sold on the Kiffin defense, which has faced a couple of sloppy foes and has yet to get severely tested. The best unit on the field is the Cincy defense, with the first string roughing up both Atlanta and Tennessee, and I really like the Bengals' QB rotation after Dalton goes out in the 3rd Q, as both Josh Johnson (especially Johnson) and John Skelton have moved the team. Cowboys 1-5 vs. line last six preseason game threes and just 4-7 vs. spread in exhibitions for Garrett since 2011.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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08/24/2013 09:36 AM
AFC South preview: Texans are head of the class

The Houston Texans will look to take advantage with Vegas posting a season win total of 10.5, two wins more than the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens.

AFC South Division

HOUSTON TEXANS

Team Theme: TALL TALL TEXANS

Riding high in the saddle following back-to-back AFC South titles, the Texans are once again the class of their division and arguably the entire AFC. After ascending to new heights last year, Houston did not stand still during the offseason when they acquired Hall of Fame FS Ed Reed and P Shane Lechler. They will combine with reigning NFL defensive player of the year J.J. Watt (81 tackles and 20.5 sacks) to form one of the best stop-units in the league, all under the lead of DC Wade Phillips. Its no coincidence the Texans’ defense has improved an average 73.5 YPG the last two years since it flamed out in a 6-win season in 2010. On the offensive front, coordinator Rick Dennison gobbled up dynamic WR DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson in the first round of the draft. He’ll work in tandem with star WR Andre Johnson. Along with thoroughbred RB Arian Foster, a tantalizing trio of skill players surrounds QB Matt Schaub. It’s like we mentioned on these pages last year: between Gary Kubiak’s playbook, Dennison’s offensive mind and Phillips’ stingy defensive schemes, the Texans are standing extra tall with sights on the Super Bowl these days.

Stat You Will Like: The Texans are 0-4 ATS away versus NFC West opponents in their franchise history.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tennessee (9/15)

IN THE STATS: The Texans are 24-12 ‘In The Stats’ the last two seasons.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Team Theme: WHAT GOES UP…

When the Colts jumped from 2-14 to 11-6 after selecting QB Andrew Luck with the first pick of the draft last year they recorded the 2nd biggest turnaround in NFL history. Only the 2008 Dolphins, who went from 1-15 to 11-5, made a larger leap. It should be noted that the other two teams in NFL annals making this much of an improvement regressed four and three games respectively the following year. The feeling here is regression is likely this season: despite their improvement, last year’s 11-win Colts actually allowed 12 YPG more than they gained. That and a case of Sophomore Blues appear to be lurking in the offing for Luck. Helping matters, Indy will face the 3rd softest strength-of-schedule opponents in 2013 (last year’s foes .461 overall), including four games with the NFC West (Colts are 7-1 SU against the division since 2005). Then again, Peyton Manning put up those numbers. The return of head coach Chuck Pagano, back from a bout with cancer, could offset a ton of history. Don’t forget: the Colts have made the playoffs 11 times the last 13 seasons. Stay tuned.

Stat You Will Like: The Colts own the weakest rushing attack in the AFC the last four years, averaging just over 95 RYPG.

PLAY AGAINST: at Kansas City (12/22)

IN THE STATS: The Colts were 0-5 ‘ITS’ during the final five games of the season last year.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Team Theme: SIGN, SIGN, EVERYWHERE A SIGN

Despite a fall from 5 wins to 2 last year, the worst in franchise history, signs of improvement abound. Consider: after being outgained in 11 of their first 12 games of the 2012 season, the Jaguars refused to raise the white flag when they won the stats in three of their final four games. In addition, after failing to gain more than 325 yards in any game in 2011, Jacksonville bettered that mark on seven different occasions last year. Toss in the fact that of the 17 teams who won 2 or fewer games the previous season, 16 of them have improved on their win total this millennium (witness the Colts and Rams last year) the following season. New head coach Gus Bradley brings a defensive pedigree to Jacksonville, a team that ranked 30th in total ‘D’ last season while allowing 444 points, a franchise-record. He was Seattle’s defensive coordinator the last four years and his unit allowed a league-low 15.3 PPG last season. New offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch returns to the NFL after two years at the University of Miami, banking on first-round pick OT Luke Joeckel’s ability to plow open running lanes for a healthy Maurice Jones-Drew.

Stat You Will Like: The Jaguars are 10-6 SU all-time versus the NFC West with only three losses by more than 4 points.

PLAY ON: at Seattle (9/22)

IN THE STATS: The Jaguars are 15-33 ‘ITS’ the L3Y, but 3-1 ‘ITS’ the L4 games of 2012.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Team Theme: BLUE COLLAR NETWORK

It was no surprise whatsoever to witness the blue-collar moves made by Mike Munchak and the Titans this offseason. After all, Munchak is a Hall of Fame offensive lineman and he did what he knows best – rebuild the offensive line – in order to keep his job a while longer in Tennessee. A three-game slippage with falling numbers on both sides of the ball sent Munchak into desperation mode when he signed G Andy Levitre (Bills) and selected G Chance Warmack (Alabama) in the first round of this year’s draft. The moves should benefit QB Jake Locker and RB Chris Johnson who, despite rushing for 1,000-plus yards in each of his five seasons in the league, has seen his numbers fall appreciably since his 2,006-yard performance in 2006. As a result, Johnson expects the Titans to become a ground-and-pound ‘run-first’ offense. It’s safe to assume that if Munchak is gone at the end of the year, so too will be Locker - a top-10 pick two years ago who, after witnessing last year’s successful rookie crop of quarterbacks, suddenly finds the clock ticking. After having last made the playoffs in 2008 and spending $100 million dollars on free agents, owner Bud Adams is expecting results… now.

Stat You Will Like: The Titans have allowed season-high, or 2nd-high, yards in 7 of their first 14 games under Munchak.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Houston (12/29)

IN THE STATS: The Titans won the stats in 4 of their final 6 games last season.


Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2013 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
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08/24/2013 09:37 AM
NFLX
Dunkel

St. Louis at Denver
The Broncos look to bounce back from last week's 40-10 loss to Seattle as they host the Rams on Saturday. Denver is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Broncos favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 24

Game 259-260: Buffalo at Washington (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 119.436; Washington 120.478
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

Game 261-262: NY Jets at NY Giants (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 113.701; NY Giants 125.882
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 12; 35
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2); Under

Game 263-264: Cleveland at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.326; Indianapolis 121.777
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 4 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under

Game 265-266: Tampa Bay at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 121.138; Miami 117.741
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Over

Game 267-268: Kansas City at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 117.075; Pittsburgh 117.177
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2 1/2);

Game 269-270: Philadelphia at Jacksonville (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 122.435; Jacksonville 121.703
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Under

Game 271-272: Atlanta at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.485; Tennessee 118.322
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Over

Game 273-274: St. Louis at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 114.665; Denver 125.470
Dunkel Line: Denver by 11; 40
Vegas Line: Denver by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2); Under

Game 275-276: Cincinnati at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 124.555; Dallas 121.561
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Over

Game 277-278: San Diego at Arizona (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 117.509; Arizona 126.452
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9; 37
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-4); Under


SUNDAY, AUGUST 25

Game 279-280: New Orleans at Houston (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 123.677; Houston 123.405
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2 1/2); Over

Game 281-282: Minnesota at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.095; San Francisco 126.930
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4 1/2); Under




NFLX
Short Sheet

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Buffalo at Washington, 4:30 ET NFL
Buffalo: Bills 3-7-1 ATS in preseason road games since 2008
Washington: Redskins 7-2 ATS in home preseason games last four+ seasons

New York Jets at New York Giants, 7:00 ET
New York Jets: The "road" team has beaten the pointspread in this matchup in each of the last four years
New York Giants: Under is 6-2 since 2005 in Giants' second home preseason game

Cleveland at Indianapolis, 7:00 ET
Cleveland: Browns haven't covered in three straight preseason games since 2004
Indianapolis: Over is 5-2 in last seven Colts' home preseason contests

Tampa Bay at Miami, 7:30 ET
Tampa Bay: Buccaneers 8-3 ATS in road preseason games since 2008
Miami: Over is 5-0 in Week 3 games for Dolphins last five preseasons

Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 7:30 ET
Kansas City: Chiefs 3-19 ATS in preseason since 2008
Pittsburgh: Steelers 6-2 ATS at home since 2009 in first three weeks of preseason

Philadelphia at Jacksonville, 7:30 ET
Philadelphia: Eagles 15-29 ATS since 1993 when pointspread is a field goal or less either way
Jacksonville: Over is 7-3 since 2008 when Jacksonville plays in Weeks 3 & 4

Atlanta at Tennessee, 8:00 ET
Atlanta: Under is 6-2 for Falcons' road games in Weeks 2-4 since 2008
Tennessee: Titans 8-3 ATS at home last five seasons

St. Louis at Denver, 8:00 ET CBS
St. Louis: Rams 10-0 ATS in final two weeks of preseason since 2008
Denver: Over is 5-1-1 in Broncos' last seven home preseason games

Cincinnati at Dallas, 8:00 ET
Cincinnati: Over is 6-1 in Bengals' last seven road preseason contests
Dallas: Cowboys 1-4 ATS in the first home preseason game since 2008

San Diego at Arizona, 10:00 ET NFL
San Diego: Over is 5-2 in Chargers' road games since 2008 during last two weeks of preseason
Arizona: Cardinals 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 home preseason games versus AFC team


Sunday, August 25, 2013

New Orleans at Houston, 4:00 ET FOX
New Orleans: Saints 10-2 ATS in last 12 road preseason games
Houston: Over is 4-1-1 in Texans' last six preseason games

Minnesota at San Francisco, 8:00 ET NBC
Minnesota: Under is 8-3 since 2008 in Vikings' road preseason games
San Francisco: 49ers 6-0 ATS in home preseason games versus NFC teams since 1993
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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