cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
On 08/03/2013 02:11 AM in NFL

Cnotes Preseason Best Bets & Pod's ! + QB Rotations

Preseason Report - Part III

July 26, 2013


In Part I and II of the Preseason Report, we discussed trends for teams and more importantly, their coaches. As mentioned before, coaching is a key factor in the preseason and you should be aware of this year's head coaching changes. This season we have eight coaching changes coming into the 2013 season.

Here is this year's list:

Arizona - Bruce Arians - was the former Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator - Arians filled in for head coach Chuck Pagano while he battled leukemia, and went 9-3 in his absence.

Buffalo - Doug Maronne - Syracuse head coach for the past 4 years - his prior NFL experience was with the New Orleans back in 2008 as the Saints offensive coordinator.

Chicago - Marc Trestman - Former coach of the Montreal Alouettes - NFL experience as an Offensive coordinator for the 49ers and Raiders.

Cleveland - Rob Chudzinski - Offensive coordinator of the Carolina Panthers - however the offense will be turned over to Norv Turner.

Jacksonville - Gus Bradley - Former defensive coordinator the last four seasons of the league-leading Seahawks defense.

Kansas City - Andy Reid - head coach of the Eagles the last 14 years.

Philadelphia - Chip Kelly - head coach of the Oregon Ducks - offensive genius of the Ducks high octane offense - first NFL coaching job.

San Diego - Mike McCoy - is the former Broncos offensive coordinator for the Broncos and helped lead Denver to the playoffs the past two seasons with two totally different quarterbacks' styles.

Here are each teams Quarterback Rotations for this Preseason (R - Rookie):

Arizona - Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Caleb TerBush (R - Purdue)

Atlanta - Matt Ryan, Dominique Davis, Sean Renfree (R - Duke), Seth Doege (R - Texas Tech)

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Baltimore - Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Caleb Hanie

Buffalo - Kevin Kolb, EJ Manuel (R - Florida State), Jeff Tuel (R - Washington State)

Carolina - Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Jimmy Clausen, Colby Cameron (R - La. Tech)

Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Matt Blanchard

Cincinnati - Andy Dalton, John Skelton, Josh Johnson, Zac Robinson

Cleveland - Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer

Dallas - Tony Romo, Kyle Orton, Aaron Corp

Denver - Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert (R - Miami, OH), Ryan Katz (R - San Diego State)

Detroit - Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore

Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, B.J. Coleman

Houston - Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, Stephen McGee, Case Keenum

Indianapolis - Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish

Jacksonville - Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Mike Kafka, Matt Scott (R - Arizona)

Kansas City - Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray (R - Tennessee), Ricky Stanzi

Miami - Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin

Minnesota - Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, James Vandenberg (R - Iowa)

New England - Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Tim Tebow

New Orleans - Drew Brees, Seneca Wallace, Luke McCown, Ryan Griffin (R - Tulane)

New York Giants - Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Nassib (R - Syracuse), Curtis Painter

New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith (R - West Virginia), Greg McElroy, Matt Simms

Oakland - Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Tyler Wilson (R - Arkansas)

Philadelphia - Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley (Rookie - USC)

Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, John Parker Wilson, Landry Jones (R - Oklahoma)

San Diego - Philip Rivers, Charlie Whitehurst, Brad Sorensen (R - Southern Utah), Mike Hermann (R - RPI)

San Francisco - Colin Kaepernick, Colt McCoy, Scott Tolzien, B.J. Daniels (R - South Florida)

Seattle - Russell Wilson, Brady Quinn, Tarvaris Jackson

St. Louis - Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens, Austin Davis

Tampa Bay - Josh Freeman, Mike Glennon (R - N.C. State), Dan Orlovsky, Adam Weber

Tennessee - Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rusty Smith, Nathan Enderle

Washington - Robert Griffin III (Will not play in preseason), Kirk Cousins, Rex Grossman, Pat White

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
08/03/2013 02:14 AM

2013 NFL Win Total Best Bets

August 1, 2013


Last year, I was able to produce a 4-1 (80%) record in my NFL Win Total predictions but I’ll admit that I was fortunate to catch a few breaks at the end of the season.

2012 Selections

WIN - Pittsburgh Steelers - Under 10 (-120)

Notes – The Steelers finished 8-8, which included a dreadful 2-5 close to the season. Also, Pittsburgh lost five of its games by three points and no loss was worse than 12 points, which occurred in Week 1 at Denver (remember the pick six?)

WIN - Chicago Bears – Over 9 (-130)

Notes – This ticket was a roller coaster as Chicago started the season 7-1. The Bears followed that run with a 1-5 slump and fortunately won their last two games of the season on the road to finish 10-6.

WIN - Atlanta Falcons – Over 9 (-140)

Notes – I guess there was a reason the books made you lay 5/7 (Bet $140 to win $100) on this selection last year because it was popular and an easy winner too. The Falcons started the season 8-0 and eclipsed 10 wins by Thanksgiving.

WIN - St. Louis Rams – Over 6 (-120)

Notes – Definitely an ugly win here as the Rams finished 7-8-1. Even though the 49ers and Seahawks get all the attention in the NFC West, St. Louis went 4-1-1 in the division last season.

LOSS - San Diego Chargers – Over 9 (+100)

Notes – My lone loser was San Diego, and despite a 3-1 start to the season, this club folded after it suffered three straight losses to the Saints, Broncos and Browns, which all featured collapses by the Bolts.

If you played one-unit ($100) on the above selections, you would’ve profited $300.

Despite my lean to ‘over’ tickets last season, I normally tend to take ‘under’ selections and that’s my focus in 2013.

Here are my top three Win Total selections for 2013 season.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Under 5 (+110)

The Jaguars have a combined seven wins the previous two seasons, which includes a 2-14 record in 2012, and I just don’t see this team improving by more than three wins in 2013. The Jaguars may not be favored in any game this season, plus they have a new rookie head coach in Gus Bradley.

Looking at the Jacksonville schedule, I believe they have eight automatic losses – at Seattle, at Denver, at Houston, at Indianapolis, at St Louis and at home vs. Colts, Texans, and the 49ers.

I only see three winnable games at most, which are road games at Oakland and Arizona and Buffalo at home.
When you factor in the eight losses, the Jaguars would have to go 6-2 in their other eight games to beat me and I don’t see that happening. It will be another tough year for the young Jaguars.

Buffalo Bills - Under 6.5 (-130)

Buffalo has not had a winning season since 2004, when it went 9-7. Since then, the team hasn’t been better than 7-9 and the last four years have seen three 6-10 records and a 4-12 ledger. Similar to the Jaguars, they have a new head coach in Doug Marrone from Syracuse. Also similar to Jacksonville, they will continue having problems at quarterback. Kevin Kolb is coming over from Arizona and they have a rookie behind him in E.J. Manual who they drafted out of Florida State.

The Bills have just six wins versus the AFC East over the last five seasons. Buffalo has tough games outside of their division in Carolina, Baltimore, Cincinnati, at New Orleans, at Pittsburgh, Atlanta and at Tampa Bay.

When you add in four tough games vs. division rivals New England and Miami, I believe the Bills are in for a long season and I can’t see them winning seven or more games in 2013.

New York Jets – Under 6.5 (-135)

The infamous duo of head coach Rex Ryan and quarterback Mark Sanchez will begin the fifth season together and most pundits, including myself, believe it will be the last. The New York Jets franchise had their problems the last two seasons, going 8-8 and 6-10 after reaching the AFC Championship the two prior seasons (2009, 2010).

It will not be long before the Jets fans are calling for Sanchez, if he’s the starting quarterback, and coach Ryan’s heads. Waiting in the wings at quarterback is rookie Geno Smith from West Virginia, who has a lot of work to do to become an average signal caller at this level.

The Jets schedule plays out with difficult non-division road contests at Atlanta, Cincinnati, Baltimore and Carolina which I don’t see them winning any one of those. Plus I don’t see them winning division road games against the Dolphins or Patriots either, which brings their loss tally to six.

There are a few games that look like possible wins – home contests against Buffalo, Oakland and Cleveland. On the road, they might have chances at Tennessee and Buffalo. However, backing a team that’s gone 5-11 as a visitor the last two seasons isn’t a sound investment.

The Jets won six games last season and the best case I see for this dysfunctional team is five wins come 2013.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
08/03/2013 02:18 AM

Four NFL coaches who need to win this preseason


Handicapping NFL coaches has become a popular practice for preseason bettors, picking out guys like Mike Shanahan (44-34-2 ATS in the preseason) and Andy Reid (25-28-3 ATS), who are notorious for their interest – or lack thereof – during the summer schedule.

However, Shanahan finished the preseason 2-2 against the spread last summer – improving to 7-5 ATS during the preseason in his tenure with the Redskins – and Reid led the Philadelphia Eagles to a 3-1 ATS mark and is actually 6-2 ATS the past two preseasons.

While weighing a head coach’s preseason success is fine, perhaps a more valuable way to look at NFL coaches is just how bad they need to win in 2013 – preseason or not. Putting together a winning record in the warm-ups can cool a coach’s seat and appease a nervous fanbase, easing the pressure heading into Week 1.

Here are four coaches who need to win during the preseason:

Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions

Schwartz just so happens to be one of the better preseason plays, posting a 12-4 SU and 11-4 ATS mark since 2009, so turning up the intensity during the exhibition slate shouldn’t be too much of a stretch. Schwartz is under the microscope in the Motor City after Detroit suffered a serious regression in 2012, going 4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS, after posting 10 wins in 2011. A poor start – preseason or regular season – could spark the fire under Schwartz’s seat.

Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys

Jerry Jones has done just about everything but ax his head coach, taking the offensive playbook from Garrett and handing it to new coordinator Bill Callahan. Dallas hasn’t been a great preseason bet in recent years, boasting a 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS record during Garrett’s time as head coach. Cowboys fans shouldn’t expect wins this preseason. Dallas is working in two new coordinators, switching from the 3-4 to the 4-3 Cover 2 and has even introduced a Pistol look to the offense.

Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta should be more concerned about winning games at the end of the year – after numerous postseason flops – but the Falcons’ fan base is pissed after last season and has had a bad taste in its mouth since blowing a 17-0 lead in the NFC Championship. Smith can provide a bit of mouthwash with a solid preseason. Atlanta has been horrid in tuneup tilts the past two years, with a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS count, while Smith is 7-13 SU and 8-10-2 ATS during his preseason career.

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Belichick is in no danger of being fired and spends about as much time worrying about the preseason scoreboard as he does picking out his sideline outfit every Sunday. However, after the summer the Patriots had – losing Welker and Woodhead, Gronkowski’s surgeries, Hernandez’s murder arrest – New England football fans need something to cheer for. Belichick was 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS last summer and boasts an 8-12 SU and 6-13-1 ATS record over the past five preseasons.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
08/03/2013 02:21 AM

Report: Tony Romo won't play for Cowboys on Sunday

The Dallas Cowboys are preparing to open the preseason minus the services of quarterback Tony Romo.

Multiple sources told Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com on Friday that Romo won't play in Sunday's Hall of Fame Game against the Miami Dolphins.

Romo hasn't missed a practice during training camp after surgery in April to remove a cyst from his back. The Cowboys starter expressed hope Monday in suiting up against the Dolphins, but said he'd go along with whatever coach Jason Garrett decided.

It's no surprise the Cowboys would take its time dipping Romo into action. The Cowboys have five preseason games this summer, so there's plenty of chances for snaps. The Cowboys plays the Oakland Raiders in their second preseason game Aug. 9. It's a good bet we'll get our first taste of Tony next Friday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
08/03/2013 02:23 AM

Top 5 NFL Trends


MIA
DAL Under is 17-4 in Dolphins last 21 games on fieldturf.


MIA
DAL Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games on fieldturf.


MIA
DAL Under is 22-8-1 in Dolphins last 31 games overall.


MIA
DAL Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.


MIA
DAL Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
08/04/2013 10:35 AM

NFL betting: Hall of Fame game teams in Week 1

The NFL's annual Hall of Fame Game kicks off the preseason with the Miami Dolphins facing the Dallas Cowboys from Canton, Ohio Sunday.

But how do the Hall of Fame Game participants fare in Week 1 of the NFL's regular season? Does the extra exhibition game have any effect for bettor or worse?

We looked at the numbers and noticed a glaring trend over the last five seasons that included the Hall of Fame game. (There was no game in 2011 due to the lockout.)

Since 2007, the 10 teams that participated in the game are just 2-8 SU (straight up) in their Week 1 games.

The combined ATS (against the spread) record is 4-6 ATS and the over/under record is 4-6.

Since 1999, the Cowboys and Dolphins have played a pair of HOF Games apiece. Dallas (2010, 1999) is 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U in their two Week 1 games.

Miami (2005, 2001) is 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS and 2-0 O/U in their Week 1 games after playing the extra preseason game.

The Cowboys ring in their regular season campaign against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. The Cowboys are currently 2.5-point home faves with a total of 49.

The Dolphins are back in Ohio to face the Cleveland Browns in their regular season opener. The Fish are currently 1.5-point road faves and the total is 39.5.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
08/04/2013 10:36 AM

Hall of Fame Game betting preview: Dolphins vs. Cowboys

Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys (+2.5, 33)

Two of the NFL’s most storied franchises clash in Canton, Ohio for the NFL’s Hall of Fame weekend. The Dolphins are aiming for an improvement in the AFC East, capitalizing on what could be a weak year for the division. The Cowboys hope coaching changes on offense and defense can maximize the team’s potential and get Dallas back to the playoffs in 2013.

Odds

Sportsbooks opened the Cowboys as big as 1.5-point favorites for this neutral-site game but action on the Dolphins has pushed the spread all the way to Dallas +2.5. The total opened at as high as 34.5 and has been bet down to 33 points heading into the weekend.

Hall of Fame Game trends

The New Orleans Saints beat the Arizona Cardinals 17-10 as 3-point favorites in the 2012 Hall of Fame Game. Favorites are 9-6 SU and 7-6-2 SU ATS since 1996 with those games going 8-7 over/under. Four of the last six Hall of Fame Games have played under the total, with the 2011 HoF Game cancelled due to the NFL lockout.

Dallas is 1-3 SU all-time in the Hall of Fame Game, with a 2-0 ATS record and 1-1 O/U mark with spreads available. Miami boasts a 0-3 SU mark all-time in the HoF Game, going 0-1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U with odds available. These teams met in Week 4 of the 2012 preseason, with the Cowboys winning 30-13 as 2.5-point home favorites. Dallas and Miami have met eight times in the regular season since 1987, with the teams splitting those meetings 4-4 SU and ATS and going 2-6 over/under.

Capping the QBs

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo will not play in Sunday’s Hall of Fame Game, still recovering from having surgery to remove a cyst on his back this summer. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett said that even if Romo was suiting up, he would only see one or two series and would be limited in pass attempts.

The other reason Romo is sitting out is the shaky shape of the Dallas offensive line. The Cowboys protection is still a work in progress and hasn’t looked sharp in camp. That could mean a long night for backups Kyle Orton, Nick Stephens and Alex Tanney. Orton has digressed as Dallas’ second stringer and Stephens is fighting off Tanney, who could be a surprise star this preseason. He’s freakishly athletic and has great arm strength and accuracy.

Miami will give No. 1 Ryan Tannehill some work during Sunday’s game but head coach Joe Philbin is tight lipped about how many snaps his second-year passer will take. He passed for 103.5 yards on 19.5 attempts per game in the preseason last year.

“We’re going to evaluate the practice tape and then we’re going to make a decision in regard to playing time tomorrow as to who’s going to be getting the majority of the snaps and the guidelines,” Philbin told the Palm Beach Post. “We’ll have a guideline of ‘X’ amount of snaps.”

The Dolphins have Matt Moore and Pat Devlin behind Tannehill. Moore was the Fins No. 1 QB in 2011, putting up 2,497 yards, 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in 12 games, going 6-6 SU in those contests. He’s regarded as one of the best backups in the NFL heading into 2013. Devlin has impressed this summer and has shown the ability to make plays with his legs, which could come in handy with Miami’s offensive line missing some key cogs.

Dallas notes

- Romo isn’t the only Cowboys starter sitting out Sunday’s exhibition kickoff. According to reports out of Dallas, numerous first stringers will pass on Canton. One of those starters expected to be on the field is WR Dez Bryant, who returned to practice this week after sitting out with a sore hip. Bryant, who reeled in 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns, is primed for a breakout season in 2013.

- Dallas is working in a new offensive coordinator in Bill Callahan and a new defensive coordinator in Monte Kiffin. Callahan is throwing some wrinkles into the offensive playbook, copying what the New England Patriots have done with their tight end sets. He’s also flirted with a pistol offense to jumpstart the running game behind RB DeMarco Murray, who when healthy can break the back of a defense. The stop unit is switching up from the 3-4 to the 4-3 with Cover 2 schemes. Many players, like DeMarcus Ware moving from LB to DE, are switching positions. Dallas takes the new defense for a test drive Sunday night.

Miami notes

- Miami was 0-4 SU and ATS in the preseason last year, focusing more on adjusting to Philbin’s new sets and getting Tannehill some time under center. This time around, the Dolphins are out to win some exhibition games and show they can contend in the AFC East. Philbin’s main focus this summer is playing with speed, which should be easy with some new additions to the WR corps. Miami brought in WRs Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson as well as TE Dustin Keller. Wallace and fellow receiver Brian Hartline hope to play Sunday after returning from injuries this week.

- The Dolphins running game has no face with Reggie Bush leaving for Detroit. Running backs Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are expected to get the bulk of the carries this season, but fellow rushers Mike Gillislee and Marcus Thigpen will share the load Sunday. The rushing attack could have a tough time gaining traction behind a thinning offensive line. Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman told reporters he’ll likely roll out his best five-player combo, ignoring set positions on the o-line.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
08/04/2013 10:42 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- Denver Broncos were 7-1 vs spread as home favorites last year. From '06-'11, they were 5-24-2.

-- Over last three seasons, Patriots are +70 in turnovers, Bills -31.

-- Since '03, Dolphins are 32-16-2 vs spread in non-divisional road games.

-- Under Mike Smith, Falcons are 23-10-2 vs spread in game where spread was 3 or less points.

-- Last four years Jeff Fisher coached, three in Tennessee, LY in St Louis, his team was either #1 or #2 in NFL in sacks all four years.

-- The last two years, Steelers were -13 and -10 in turnovers. The 7 years before that, they were a combined +31.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
08/04/2013 06:46 PM

Sunday, August 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami -3 500 POD # 2

Dallas - Under 33 500 POD # 1

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
bobalou Posts:4908 Followers:142
08/04/2013 07:03 PM

GL tonight Cnotes



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