steve_janus Posts:310 Followers:5
On 07/29/2013 11:44 AM in Cappers

MONDAY'S MLB FREE PICK ---Milwaukee Brewers +112---

Milwaukee vs. Chi Cubs, 07/29/2013 20:05
Money Line: +112 Milwaukee

MONDAY'S MLB FREE PICK ---Milwaukee Brewers +112---

This is a good spot to fade the Cubs at home. Chicago is fresh off a 3-game sweep at San Francisco and have won 5 of their last seven overall. This may seem like the time to jump on the Cubs, but they are a miserable 1-12 against the money line after a stretch where they have won 5 or 6 of their last seven.

While the Brewers haven't been playing their best baseball of late, which likely has something to do with the distraction created by the suspension to Ryan Braun, they are going to be motivated to play well against a division rival.

The key here is that Milwaukee has the edge on the mound in this one. The Brewers Kyle Lohse has a 2.79 ERA over his last three starts and has now allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. The Cubs will counter with a struggling Jeff Samardzija, who has a 6.62 ERA and 1.641 WHIP over his last three starts. Samardzija has also had a difficult time throwing well at home. He's just 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.607 WHIP at Wrigley this season. In his last four home starts vs the Angels, Pirates, Astros and Reds he's allowed 23 runs on 37 hits and 11 walks in just 23 and 2/3 innings of work. BET THE BREWERS!

To see more of Steve Janus's plays click here.