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NY Mets vs. Washington, 07/27/2013 15:05
Money Line: +134 NY Mets
Perception isn't meeting reality with the Nationals being priced as such a high home favorite. I would argue that the wrong team is favored based on the pitching matchup.
The Mets happen to be an above .500 team on the road. They have the same amount of losses on the season as Washington does and are swinging hotter bats.
The pitching matchup is Dillon Gee versus Dan Haren. Gee is one of the hottest pitchers going having not allowed a run during his last two starts spanning 13 2/3 innings. He is 3-0 versus the Nationals this season in three starts compiling a 0.96 ERA.
Gee hasn't lost during his past six starts. In four of his last five outings, he's given up zero runs twice, one run and two runs. The Mets have their closer, Bobby Parnell, rested and their bullpen has allowed almost a run less per game than the Nationals' bullpen since June.
Haren, on the other hand, looks close to being washed up with a 5.79 ERA. The Nationals are 0-11 in his last 11 starts. Haren has surrendered five, six and five runs during his last three home outings.
Haren has been terrible when facing the Mets posting an 8.14 ERA during his last four starts against them.
Washington doesn't figure to bail out Haren either with its offense. The Nationals are 4-12 in their last 16 games, averaging a puny 2.7 runs per game during this span. Their best offensive weapon, Bryce Harper, aggravated a left knee injury during yesterday's doubleheader and may not play.
The Nationals also are dealing with some clubhouse issues with the controversial demotion of former closer Drew Storen. Washington has performed below expectations all season. Maybe the Nationals will turn things around, but this sure doesn't seem like the spot for that to happen.
I also have a special discounted Saturday correlated parlay going on an early game.