Chi Cubs vs. NY Yankees
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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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07/23/2013 06:19 AM

Detroit Tigers -129 1.5* Play

I'll take Rick Porcello on the road in this spot. Not only is he on fire posting a 2.84 ERA over his last three starts combined, but he was long due for some good luck as he posts a 3.06 xFIP. His raw stats are off the carts with 7+ K's per 9 and less than 2 BB's per 9. He has a .317 BABIP and a 65.4% left on base percentage, but facing a poor hitting team like the White Sox should change those numbers. The White Sox are 23rd in OPS vs. RHP on the year and Porcello has a 2.78 ERA in his last 8 starts vs. the White Sox. Porcello has also been at his best against divisional opponents going 30-12 in the last 42 vs. AL Central.

On the other side is Hector Santiago who has a 3.30 ERA despite walking more than 4 guys per 9 innings. Meaning he's been lucky and facing a Tigers team that's 2nd in OPS vs. LHP is not going to help him. If he lets guys on the base the Tigers will take advantage and that's exactly what I'm expecting. The Tigers also have the bullpen advantage in this one and are 35-17 in their last 52 meetings with the White Sox.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Alexi Ogando (3-0, 17.1 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 2.60 ERA)
Jarrod Parker (0-3, 17 IP, 0.76 WHIP, 2.12 ERA)
Jonathan Pettibone (2-1, 19 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Hector Santiago (0-3, 19.2 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 2.29 ERA)
Jose Fernandez (2-1, 20 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)
Travis Wood (1-2, 18.1 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 2.45 ERA)
Tony Cingrani (2-1, 16.2 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Kris Medlen (1-2, 15.1 IP, 2.09 WHIP, 7.63 ERA)
Shelby Miller (2-1, 12.2 IP, 1.97 WHIP, 7.11 ERA)
Barry Zito 0-3, 12 IP, 2.08 WHIP, 7.50 ERA)
Kyle Gibson (1-2, 16.1 IP, 1.78 WHIP, 7.71 ERA)
Tommy Hanson (3-0, 13.1 IP, 1.88 WHIP, 7.42 ERA)
Zach McCallister (1-2, 14.2 IP, 2.05 WHIP, 6.14 ERA)
Chris Capuano (1-2, 14.1 IP, 1.74 WHIP, 6.28 ERA)
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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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07/23/2013 10:30 AM
Today's MLB Picks
Tampa Bay at Boston

The Red Sox look to bounce back from last night's loss and take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 0-5 in Roberto Hernandez' last 5 starts as a road underdog. Boston is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160). Here are all of today's picks.

Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.753; Washington (Jordan) 14.736
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Under

Game 953-954: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 16.149; NY Mets (Torres) 14.716
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Over

Game 955-956: San Diego at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 15.118; Milwaukee (Hand) 13.929
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); Over

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Pettibone) 15.407; St. Louis (Miller) 16.831
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-210); Under

Game 959-960: Miami at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 15.925; Colorado (Chacin) 14.819
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+135); Over

Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 13.341; Arizona (Corbin) 14.821
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-175); Under

Game 963-964: Cincinnati at San Francisco (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cingrani) 16.428; San Francisco (Surkamp) 13.104
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 15.344; Boston (Lester) 16.892
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Over

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 14.267; Texas (Ogando) 15.758
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-170); Under

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 16.056; Kansas City (Chen) 14.064
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over

Game 971-972: Oakland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 15.981; Houston (Cosart) 13.586
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-170); Under

Game 973-974: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.189; White Sox (Santiago) 16.056
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110); Over

Game 975-976: Minnesota at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 14.114; LA Angels (Hanson) 15.819
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-175); Under

Game 977-978: Cleveland at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 16.295; Seattle (Ramirez) 15.145
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Over

Game 979-980: LA Dodgers at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Capuano) 16.884; Toronto (Redmond) 14.173
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-105); Over

Game 981-982: San Francisco at Cincinnati (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 16.224; Cincinnati (Reynolds) 15.399
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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07/23/2013 10:31 AM

Hondo eyes Ray payday

Hondo bounced back from his Sunday double-beating by scoring easily with the Reds, who trimmed the debt to 505 doerrs by proving him prescient with his Lincecum Post-No-Hitter-Letdown Theory.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will seek a contribution from the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona – 20 units on the Rays to show some pop against Jonny Lager.
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07/23/2013 10:31 AM

Tuesday MLB Thoughts

Pirates-Washington: Starters essentially a wash, and I'd much rather play Washington against a RHP, so this one depends on bullpens on Monday (for me, at this point). The weather might be conducive for runs to be scored, and I can see this going to 8.5.

Atlanta-New York: There is no doubt in my mind that Carlos Torres is better than Kris Medlen, and there is no doubt that the Braves have a better lineup, hence they are favored. However, if the Mets don't use a ton of bullpen and someone, say McCann, sits tomorrow, I can see taking Dub's Mets here.

San Diego-Milwaukee: Hard to say how this Braun thing effects these guys, not just from a "he's not playing" standpoint, but perhaps the rest of the team feels "cheated" for lack of a better word. I would be more concerned about that for the next week with this team rather than who's playing whom. Ross gets a rare start, meaning we might see the Padres pen sooner rather than later, and ditto for Hand. Tough game to read.

Phillies-Cardinals: Don't look now but the Phillies are in second place in the NL East. Yes, sub .500, but 7 games out and don't tell them they can't catch they Braves. Motivation matters from here on out as teams start to "quit" or call up next years' potential talent. Miller's been giving up flyballs and he is (has been) simply not the dominant pitcher he was early in the season. Pettibone has kept the Phillies in most games, and that ML for the Cardinals is just too much. Looking at the Phillies RL here.

Miami-Colorado: Fernandez is clearly the Fish's best option more often than not, and I have never felt that Chacin was worth all the fuss, at least in Coors. Because Miami CAN hit, there is no chance of laying -150 on Colorado. Miami RL or nothing, but this is one that clearly depends on what happens Monday night.

Rays-Red Sox: I simply can't back Jon Lester coming off the rest/DL whatever. He may well be the Lester of old, but I can't lay that price. Fausto has been reborn in Tampa Bay, and there's no trusting Boston's bullpen with Lester perhaps on a pitch count. Have to lean Rays here, inasmuch as it hurts Kyle.

Yankees-Rangers: Again, simply not laying -160 on a pitcher coming of the DL. Just not an option.That's even more the case with a 100 degree heat and a pitch count. We all know Hughes has been better on the road, and he's beaten the Rangers once this season already. Looking again at the Yankees or the Yankees RL.

Orioles at Royals: Have to wonder here if Chen isn't a little motivated to pitch against one of his former teams. He certainly looked good against the Indians, so I wouldn't rule out taking the Royals here. Lefties CAN take SOME of the pop out of Davis and Markakis, and he's done well against Weiters. Hammel has regressed quite a bit since the good start, so it's (gulp) Royals or nothing.

Oakland-Houston: So Jarred Cosart shuts down the Rays on two hits and is a home dog to the vaunted A's. The kids from League City which is not far from Houston at all. Just how will he handle 50% of the crowd being free tickets he probably had to get. Parker giving up a lot more bombs on the road (as you'd expect) so I wouldn't rule out the Astros here.

Detroit-Chicago: Again, the White Sox and their impending personnel implosion are probably not something I wany my money behind, regardless of how good Santiago CAN be. I have never been a Porcello fan for some reason, but he just beat the White Sox last start, so perhaps Chicago returns the favor. I have not looked at the weather, but somehow think their may be some runs scored.

Twins-Angels: Once again, there is no chance of taking Hanson at any price, let alone -175, coming off the DL. If he was that good he'd still be in Atlanta, so I lean Twins and/or Twins RL here or nothing whatsoever.

Cleveland-Seattle: Ramirez has had his moments, but two weeks ago (his last/only start) he needed 101 pitches and could get out of the 5th inning. But, yes, McAllister another DL casualty returning so there is not too much chance of taking either side, and maybe the roof will be open.

Dodgers-Jays: I will back the Jays against most LHP's at home, but Capuano is pretty tough on left handed hitters, so this one might need more thought, as he's also been actually better away from Chavez Ravine. Redmond can be had, and may not pitch deep, so at this point I am inclined to take the Dodgers.
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07/23/2013 10:32 AM
StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets


Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ATLANTA) off a one run win over a division rival, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts
34-16 since 1997. ( 68.0% 23.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets


BALTIMORE is 20-10 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.4) , OPPONENT (3.4)
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