07/20/2013 01:53 PM
July 20, 2013
Pittsburgh (Burnett) at Cincinnati (Latos) (-140) 4:05 ET FOX TV
3% Pittsburgh (Burnett) (+130)
The Reds have one of the best home records in baseball at 31-16. That includes 16-2 home/loss. Thus we do not fear the Reds today who are just 15-14 home/win. After a phenomenal 21 game starting record, the Reds have gone just 2-4 in the last 6 starts by Latos. His decline is characterized by the fact that he has a 9.00 ERA his last 2 starts. And the Reds have lost all 3 times that Latos has faced the Pirates this year. Despite last night’s loss, Pittsburgh is still on a 14-6 run. Coming off the DL (calf), Burnett has immediately returned to form with a 2.52 ERA in those outings.
San Diego (Volquez) at St. Louis (Lynn) (-190, -1 ½ runs +110) 7:15 ET
4% St. Louis (Lynn) (-190, -1 ½ runs +110)
St. Louis has rebounded from their 3-8 slide by going 8-2 of late. We will continue to ride Lynn from this mound where, in his last 11 starts, he is 10-0 with a 2.51 ERA and we will continue to fade San Diego and Volquez. The Padres enter on negative runs of 4-19, 2-15 with 10 consecutive road losses. Volquez is not the stopper. Volquez is among the worst in the league with a 5.74 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Volquez is also 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA from this mound. Run line players take note: 46/58 St. Louis wins, including 23/28 on this field have been by 2 or more runs. For San Diego, 8/10 of those consecutive road losses have been by 2 or more runs. Consider part of your wager on the run line.
Tampa Bay (Hellickson) at Toronto (Buehrle) (-105) 1:05 ET
3% Tampa Bay (Hellickson) (-105)
Not about to jump off the meal ticket that has been Tampa Bay for us. The current surge is now 18-4 and 15-2. In those 17 games, the Rays have a 2.09 ERA. Part of that run has been the result of Hellickson in his performance in his last 5 starts over which time he has gone 4-0 with a 1.97 ERA. In 3 starts vs. Toronto this season, Hellickson has a 2.25 ERA. After an 11-0 blitz, Toronto has fallen back with a 7-14 recent record. Buehrle’s good work at home is the only reason for reducing this rating. But Buehrle comes off his worst outing of the year in which he allowed 8 runs in 6 IP of an 8-5 loss to Baltimore.