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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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07/10/2013 05:33 PM
SportsWagers 7/10

Today's Free Picks for Jul 10, 2013





Cincinnati @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE +150 over Cincinnati

2:10 PM EST. Pitching match-up favors the Reds but Cincinnati is struggling so badly at the plate right now that they are a great fade at this ridiculous price. The Reds have scored three runs combined in the first two games of this set. They’ve scored three runs or less in six of their past seven games against the following starters: Wily Peralta, Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Aaron Harang, Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum. The price today on them is so high because they’re facing a rookie starter that has surrendered 15 hits and 16 runs in 6.1 innings. Johnny Hellweg has also walked eight batters while striking out just two. However, prior to his call-up, the 6-foot-9 Hellweg turned in five consecutive quality starts at Triple-AAA Reno, going 5-0 with a 0.82 ERA over that span. In 33 innings, he allowed only 22 hits, with 11 walks and 17 strikeouts. Obviously, the problem with Hellweg is a lack of control but a pressing team often helps out pitchers by swinging at strikes out of the zone. The fact that the Brewers are giving him another shot suggests they like what they see in this hard-throwing right-hander, otherwise he would be back down in the minors.
Mike Leake had a string of nine strong starts snapped in his last game when the Mariners got to him for two bombs and four runs in five innings. Leake last faced the Brewers back in 2011 when he posted a 4.91 ERA in three starts against them that season. Leake has a relatively stable skill set, yes, but disaster starts % shows how erratic he can be and was in 2012. Leake has solid command and his groundball % is also decent but he'll never be close to elite and he is too risky to be spotting a tag like this one, especially with his team struggling to hit and being on the road. Price has influence.


Our Pick
MILWAUKEE +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

**




Atlanta @ MIAMI
MIAMI +130 over Atlanta

12:40 PM EST. In his first three starts of the year, Paul Maholm’s ERA after 20.1 innings was 0.00. His ERA after 18 starts heading into today’s game is 3.81. Maholm has been around since 2005. He’s never dominated and he’s become one of those classic, soft-tossing lefties with more guile than talent. Maholm’s WHIP over the past 31 days, covering five starts is 1.55. His ERA over that span is 4.75 and his line-drive rate over that same stretch is a troubling 26%. Maholm has solid command and an elite 51% groundball rate but he’s showing signs of fatigue with seven jacks allowed in his past seven starts and declining numbers right across the board. He remains as hittable as his career BAA of .272 says he is.
With seven starts in 2013 under his belt, Jacob Turner is looking like a former first-round pick (with DET) that was a key to Anibal Sanchez trade last summer. Turner is coming off a shaky early few innings in his last start but that was against the Cardinals and after allowing four runs in the first three frames, he did not allow another one after that. It was the first time all year that Turner has given up more than three runs in an outing. Turner has kept his base skills consistent in his first 100 innings or so of major league action. Strikeouts are a little light, but he’s shown very good control. A second positive is groundball%, which has improved in 2013 and will work in any stadium. This kid is just 22 years old and is confidence is building with each start. He’s learning to trust his stuff and that’s a huge step in the progress of any young pitcher with this much talent. We’ve been saying it for over a month now that Turner is a pitcher with nasty stuff that should be on your radar. As long as he keeps being offered prices in this range, especially at home where he is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA, we’ll continue to back him and certainly make no exceptions here.


Our Pick
MIAMI +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

**




Minnesota @ TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY -1½ +116 over Minnesota

The Twins are a frustrated bunch. You could see it on their faces last night, as they sat in the dugout after the Rays hung a four on them in the fourth inning to put them in a 4-0 hole. Game after game, the opposition continues to put up a crooked number in single innings and often it occurs more than once in a game. The Twinkies have lost three in a row and nine of 10 and here are some of those scores: 9-8, 9-3, 10-4, 7-3, 9-5, 11-5, 7-4 and 4-1 last night. Minnesota does not have one starter that would even be a #4 starter on a contending team and its rotation may very well be the worst in the history of MLB. How frustrating it must be for these Twins’ hitters knowing they have to put up eight runs or more to win. It’s Kevin Corriea’s turn to get whacked and here’s his story: Journeyman starting pitcher for the Pirates last year, with a strikeout rate barely higher than his xERA moans about being replaced with his team 15 games over .500 in July for the first time in eons. Good karma is ruined, chaos ensues, team limps to a 21-40 finish and this below average starter escapes into free agency. Correia has 56 K’s in 105 innings to go along with a 1.38 WHIP. His WHIP over his past six starts is 1.53 and his BAA on the year is .297. Correia is a stiff and the bullpen coming in after him is running on fumes right now.
With a bloated 4.67 ERA, Jeremy Hellickson remains the most undervalued of all the Rays pitchers and one of the most undervalued in the game. Hellickson’s 6.69 ERA in six May starts has his ERA skewed the wrong way and that’s something we can take advantage of. In May, Hellickson was crushed by an unlucky 52% strand rate. His skills in May were near identical to his skills in June is which he went 5-1 with a 3.53 ERA. On the year, Hellickson is still being affected by low 64% strand rate and as that regresses to normal levels, his ERA will drop even more. Hellickson is in for a big second half. He’s striking out more and walking less, his groundball rate is trending in the right direction and is now up to 47%, his WHIP is getting close to an elite level and he should have little trouble thriving here against this frustrated guest.

Our Pick
TAMPA BAY -1½ +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)
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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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07/10/2013 05:33 PM
StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB BOSTON at SEATTLE

Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more
186-113 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.2% 63.8 units )
24-17 this year. ( 58.5% 5.8 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB OAKLAND at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 25-13 (+16.8 Units) against the money line after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season.

The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.0) , OPPONENT (3.4)
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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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07/10/2013 05:34 PM
Handicapping Kings

JEFF (SY GUY)

SIDES

2X- LAA -117 CHICAGO (8pm)

1X- CLEVELAND -152 TORONTO(7pm)

1X- SF-185 NYM (340pm)

TOTALS

2X- CINCY/MILWAUKEE - UNDER 9 +100 (2pm)

2X- OAKLAND/PITTSBURGH - [B]OVER 7-115 (7pm)

1X- WASHINGTON/PHILLY - OVER 7-115 (7pm)

1X- COLORADO/SD - OVER 7 -105 (10pm)
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07/10/2013 05:35 PM
Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Texas at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Baltimore -138 (moneyline)

Josh Lindblom will make his fifth career start for the Texas Rangers tonight, the last coming all the way back on June 20th. He has fared much better out of the pen, and his four starts claim an ERA of 5.40 on the season. Baltimore certainly has the bats to do some damage here. Wei-Yin Chen has pitched to a 3.03 ERA on the season, and has finally recovered from an oblique injury. The Orioles have been very good at picking up the pieces after a loss, as they have followed a setback by producing a 44-18 mark in their next contest over the last 62 occurrences. Look for a strong effort tonight and back Baltimore.
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07/10/2013 05:35 PM
Jimmy Boyd

4* (MLB) Philadelphia Phillies ML -135
4* (MLB) Chicago Cubs ML +115

3* (MLB) NY Yankees ML -140
3* (MLB) Boston Red Sox ML -135
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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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07/10/2013 05:37 PM
Accu-Score MLB

ML-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 142-83, 63.1% +2378 -

TEX 913 vs BAL 914 -- Over 50% on Baltimore Orioles -110
OAK 925 vs PIT 926 -- Over 50% on Pittsburgh Pirates -130

SV-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 122-103, 54.2% +2323 -

TEX 913 vs BAL 914 -- Value on Baltimore Orioles -110
OAK 925 vs PIT 926 -- Value on Pittsburgh Pirates -130

NL WEST DIV GAME SV 60-37, 61.9% +2252 -

COL 911 vs SD 912 -- Value on Colorado Rockies +125
LAD 909 vs ARI 910 -- Value on Los Angeles Dodgers -106

SV-Home Line is -130 to -149 119-100, 54.3% +1884 -

TOR 919 vs CLE 920 -- Value on Toronto Blue Jays +131
KC 915 vs NYY 916 -- Value on Kansas City Royals +126
OAK 925 vs PIT 926 -- Value on Pittsburgh Pirates -130
COL 911 vs SD 912 -- Value on Colorado Rockies +125

4 STAR TOTALS 178-146, 54.9% +1740 -

TEX 913 vs BAL 914 -- Under 8.5
KC 915 vs NYY 916 -- Under 9
OAK 925 vs PIT 926 -- Under 7.5
HOU 929 vs STL 930 -- Under 8
LAD 909 vs ARI 910 -- Under 9
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