Range W L P +/- (Units)
Yesterday 0 2 0.00 -4.00
Last 30 Days 40 40 0.00 +19.88
Season to Date 129 136 0.00 +29.90
Today's Free Picks for Jul 08, 2013
N.Y. Mets @ SAN FRANCISCO
N.Y. Mets -110 over SAN FRANCISCO
With a total of just 6½, we can’t recommend playing the Mets on the run-line but we surely can get on board with laying a small price with Matt Harvey opposing Tim Lincecum. Matt Harvey has flashed the second highest fastball velocity among starters at 95 mph, behind only Stephen Strasburg. He's more than a thrower though. His stats (2.26 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) are the product of these fantastic skills: 27/141 BB/K over 123 IP with a 43% groundball rate. What’s even scarier is that he’s getting better. Harvey’s line-drive rate over the past month was just 16% and his groundball rate increased to 45%. On the road, Harvey is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.36. He’s been equally as effective against both righties and lefties and overall, Harvey has a BAA of .194. Harvey is a gem and will face a Giants team that owns the league’s worst offensive numbers in several offensive categories over the past 50 games.
Tim Lincecum posted a 3.60 ERA in five June starts, a marked improvement from his horrific May (6.37 ERA) but don’t let that ERA fool you into thinking that he’s corrected his problems. He has not. Lincecum’s 32% line-drive rate in June confirms just how lucky he was. Those hard hit balls, and there plenty of them, were hit right at people. That line-drive rate combined with a 1.55 WHIP over his last five starts is plenty of reason to steer clear of this former ace. Velocity loss combined with a complete lack of movement on his pitches makes it extremely unlikely that Lincecum will get back to his former levels. Even though the Mets are favored, with Harvey starting they’re undervalued here by a wide margin.
N.Y. Mets -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Oakland @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH -101 over Oakland
The Bartolo Colon story is still going strong but as we’ve pointed out in several posts this season, it cannot last. Over his last 36 innings, covering five starts, Colon is 4-1 with an ERA of 2.00. With 15 K’s in those 36 innings and a 36% groundball rate, how can that be? Colon is flashing the skills of guys that were sent down long ago. Colon’s xERA in his last start against the Cubbies was 6.47. His xERA over his last five starts was 4.89. Pitcher’s do not out-pitch their xERA by three runs over the course of a season but that’s where Colon stands right now. Colon is a sure thing for ERA regression and we’ll continue to fade him when he’s overpriced as he is here. Yeah, Oakland is playing very good but so are the Pirates. Colon favored on the road here is a bit preposterous.
Jeff Locke is 8-1 with a 2.12 ERA and like Colon, regression is forthcoming. However, unlike Colon, Locke has flashed some elite skills that include a 52% groundball rate and a miniscule 14% line-drive rate over his last five starts. While Locke has below-average fastball velocity (90 mph), he has been able to keep hitters off balance due to his pitch movement. His four-seam fastball averages seven inches of horizontal movement and nine inches of vertical movement. Batters have managed only a .222 BA against that pitch and he’s been nothing short of brilliant against teams and hitter’s that have never seen him before. The A’s have never faced him and that has to work in Locke’s favor.
PITTSBURGH -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
Cincinnati @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE +126 over Cincinnati
We get to play an angle here that’s been a profitable one over the years and it’s also one that does not come up very often. The angle is to wager against a pitcher coming off a no-hitter and that applies to Homer Bailey. After about the fifth inning, pitchers that are throwing a no-no get a little more dialed in. Intensity increases after every batter. Focus intensifies too and by the seventh inning, every pitch to every batter is magnified. In the rare case that it does occur, the pitcher subsequently has to endure days of interviews, phone calls, email and text congratulation messages in which many of them have to be answered. A no-hitter takes a toll mentally and physically and to come back just five days later and pitch again is anti-climactic to say the least. To make matters more difficult, the Reds aren’t playing well, nor are they seeing the ball well.
Over their past 20 games, Cincinnati is batting just .235 and have scored a meager 67 runs over that span. What’s even more disturbing about the Reds poor offensive showing is that they play half their games at one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. In fact, over their past four home games, Cinci has faced Barry Zito, Aaron Harang, Joe Saunders and Jeremy Bonderman. That just might be the worst string of four consecutive pitchers in the history of MLB. The Reds scored twice off Zito, once off Joe Saunders and twice off Harang. In the unlikely event that Bailey does throw a good game, it still may not be enough because right now, the Reds are brutally awful. This is what fades are made of. Definite overlay.
MILWAUKEE +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)