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marksmoneymakers
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Some Saturday MLB Helpful Information

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On 07/06/2013 08:45 AM in MLB
Most valuable MLB stats for baseball bettors
By JASON LOGAN

A few years back we asked a group of professional bettors which MLB stats they lean on the most when handicapping the day-to-day baseball schedule.

Here are the five prime numbers they singled out, why they’re important to baseball bettors and which clubs excel or just plain suck when it comes to these stats.

Strikeout-to-walk ratio

Walks can quickly turn into runs when a pitcher is struggling with his command. And runs can be bad, depending on which side of the scoreboard they end up on.

The Detroit Tigers (3.43 K/BB) and St. Louis Cardinals (3.20 K/BB) have the best team strikeout-to-walk ratios in the majors, while the Houston Astros (1.91 K/BB) and San Diego Padres (2.09 K/BB) bring up the rear.

As far as individual pitchers, Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright tops the bigs with a 9.00 K/BB and has earned +2.22 units. Seattle’s Hisashi Iwakuma (5.72 K/BB, +4.55 units) and Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee (5.48 K/BB, +1.32 units) are also among the leaders in Ks-to-walks ratio.

BA versus left-handed pitchers

Oddsmakers will usually tag an extra couple cents on the moneyline when a lefty takes the mound. Finding value on the other side of those odds can pay off.

The Tampa Bay Rays (.291) and San Francisco Giants (.279) are tops in the majors when it comes to facing southpaws. On the other end of the scale, the Washington Nationals (.215) and Miami Marlins (.223) can’t seem to catch up to lefties.

Quality starts

Baseball bettors want the best bang for their buck when handicapping starters. Getting six good innings from the starter puts you in a solid position to win most bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies are the exception to that train of thought. They lead the big leagues with 56 quality starts but have had most of those ruined by a bullpen ranked second worst in the majors.

Detroit (55 QS), Atlanta (54 QS), and Cincinnati (53 QS) are also among the leaders in quality starts. Minnesota (31 QS), Toronto (34), Colorado (35) and Milwaukee (35) have gotten the least from their starting staffs.

One-run games

Winning a baseball bet isn’t always easy and bettors will go through a few tough sweats over the course of 162 games. Teams with the ability to come through in crunch time make for smart wagers.

Cleveland owns an 18-8 mark in one-run games this season and Texas is right behind them at 15-8 in one-runners. Toronto and Philadelphia, two of the more costly bets this season, each boast a 9-16 record in one-run affairs.

BA with RISP and two outs

Clutch hitting is the difference between winning and losing a bet. Putting a play on a team that doesn’t crumble when the chips are down can keep you in the black over the course of a summer.

St. Louis is hitting .321 with runners in scoring position and two outs – best in the majors. Cleveland is tops in the American League with a .289 BA with RISP and two away. Cincinnati has put its tail between its legs with a .178 BA with RISP in two outs, and Milwaukee hasn’t been much better with a .182 mark in that situation.
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07/06/2013 08:46 AM
Hondo

Tampa Bay Rays

"Hondo connected last night with the Phillies, who put a nippin’ on the Braves to cut the deficit back to three figures at 910 pizarros.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will go to the mat with Moore — 20 units on the Rays to whale on Sale."
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07/06/2013 08:47 AM
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MLB Report

Hot pitchers
-- Eovaldi is 1-0, 2.00 in three starts this season.
-- Zimmerman is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Bumgarner is 3-1, 1.93 in his last four starts. Fife is 2-0, 2.29 in his last three.
-- Marcum is 1-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts.
-- Kendrick is 1-1, 2.91 in his last three starts.

-- Latos is 3-2, 3.22 in his last seven starts.

-- Tillman is 6-0, 2.92 in his last six starts.
-- Dickey is 2-0, 1.13 in his last couple starts.
-- Sanchez is 2-1, 2.73 in his last four starts.
-- Moore is 3-0, 1.86 in his last three starts.
-- Parker is 4-0, 2.35 in his last seven starts, but has been battling a hamstring problem. Santana is 2-0, 2.94 in his last five.
-- Darvish is 1-1, 2.77 in his last six starts.
-- Dempster has a 3.24 RA in his last four starts.


Cold pitchers
-- Kelly lost his only '13 start, allowing two runs in 5.2 IP.
-- Marquis is 0-2, 6.48 in his last three starts.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 7.31 in his last three starts. Morton is 1-1, 5.50 in his four starts this season (Pirates won last three).
-- Gallardo is 0-2, 10.45 in his last three starts.
-- Braves lost Hudson's last eight road starts (0-6, 5.70 last six).
-- Pomeranz is 4-11, 5.13 in 27 MLB starts; he allowed four runs in 4.1 in his only MLB start this season. Miley is 0-2, 4.60 in his last five starts.

-- Bonderman is 0-2, 9.00 in three road starts this season.

-- Pettitte is 0-3, 6.20 in his last four starts.
-- Sale is 0-5, 3.61 in his last six starts; White Sox scored 13 runs in those six.
-- Carrasco is 0-3, 8.17 in five starts this season.
-- Pelfrey is 0-2, 5.34 in his last five starts.
-- Keuchel lost his last two starts, allowing 12 runs in nine IP.
-- Williams is 0-2, 5.85 in his last three starts.


Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........

-- Eovaldi 0-3; Kelly 0-1
-- Morton 1-4; Jackson 6-17
-- Marquis 5-17; Zimmerman 2-17
-- Fife 1-7; Bumgarner 1-17
-- Marcum 3-11; Gallardo 4-18
-- Hudson 3-17; Kendrick 6-17
-- Pomeranz 0-1; Miley 4-17

-- Bonderman 1-6; Latos 6-17

-- Tillman 4-17; Pettitte 4-14
-- Pelfrey 6-14; Dickey 5-18 (0 of last 6)
-- Parker 6-17; Santana 7-17
-- Sanchez 2-13; Carrasco 1-5
-- Sale 6-16; Moore 6-17
-- Keuchel 1-10; Darvish 5-16 (0 of last 6)
-- Dempster 6-16; Williams 2-10


Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Cub games went over the total.
-- Eleven of last thirteen Philly games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in San Diego's last eleven games.
-- Ten of last thirteen New York games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Arizona's last seven games.
-- Six of last eight San Francisco games stayed under.

-- Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven Cincinnati home games.

-- 11 of last 16 Detroit games went over the total.
-- Four of last six Minnesota games went over total.
-- Nine of last eleven Baltimore games stayed under total.
-- Five of White Sox' last six games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Houston road games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Kansas City games.
-- Last six Boston games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Washington won four of last six games, scoring 16 runs in last two.
-- Phillies won three of their last four games.
-- Mets won eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Marlins won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their last 13 games.

-- Cincinnati won four of its last six games.

-- Detroit won its last four games, scoring 31 runs.
-- Bronx won its last five games, scoring 32 runs.
-- Tampa Bay won eight of its last twelve games.
-- Texas won 11 of its last 15 games.
-- A's won seven of their last nine games.
-- Red Sox won nine of their last ten games; Angels won eight of ten.


Cold teams
-- Cubs lost three of their last four games.
-- Padres lost 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Milwaukee lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Atlanta lost its last three games, scoring ten runs.
-- Cardinals lost eight of their last twelve games; they're 3-11 in game after their last 14 wins.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last twelve games. Rockies lost seven of last ten.
-- Giants lost 12 of their last 14 games.

-- Mariners are 4-5 in their last nine road games.

-- Indians lost their last three games, allowing 23 runs.
-- Orioles lost three of their last four games.
-- Minnesota lost nine of its last eleven games. Toronto lost four of last six.
-- Royals are 5-6 in their last eleven home games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- White Sox lost seven of their last nine games.

Umpires
-- Mia-StL-- Underdogs won five of last six BWelke games.
-- Pitt-Chi-- Last six Cederstrom games went over the total.
-- SD-Wsh-- Last three Dreckman games went over the total.
-- LA-SF-- Five of last six Randazzo games stayed under total.
-- NY-Mil-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Hoye games.
-- Atl-Phil-- Underdogs won six of last seven Nauert games; under is 5-0-1 in his last six games behind the plate.
-- Col-Az-- Underdogs are 4-3 in last seven Tichenor games, with home sides winning his last five.

-- Sea-Cin-- Four of last five Porter games went over the total.

-- Blt-NY-- Underdogs are 7-5 in last twelve Meals games.
-- Min-Tor-- Favorites won 10 of last 13 Knight games.
-- A's-KC-- Under is 8-4 in last dozen Fairchild games, with underdogs 4-0 in his last four games behind the dish.
-- Det-Cle-- Last four West games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-TB-- Six of last eight Marquez games went over the total.
-- Hst-Tex-- Underdogs won last four Blaser games; over is 7-4-1 in his last 12 games behind the plate.
-- Bos-LA-- Eight of last twelve Tumpane games stayed under.
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07/06/2013 08:47 AM
Today's MLB Picks
Baltimore at NY Yankees

The Yankees look to build on their 9-1 record in Andy Pettitte's last 10 home starts against the Orioles. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 6
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Miami at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 15.395; St. Louis (Kelly) 16.944
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); Under

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (4:05 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.973; Cubs (Jackson) 14.873
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125); N/A

Game 905-906: San Diego at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Marquis) 13.451; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.112
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-220); Under

Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Fife) 14.124; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.317
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Over

Game 909-910: NY Mets at Milwaukee (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Marcum) 15.206; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 13.803
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Over

Game 911-912: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.743; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.928
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at Arizona (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Pomeranz) 14.763; Arizona (Miley) 13.928
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Over

Game 915-916: Baltimore at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 15.612; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.982
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under

Game 917-918: Minnesota at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pelfrey) 13.380; Toronto (Dickey) 15.246
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-210); Under

Game 919-920: Oakland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 15.823; Kansas City (Santana) 16.855
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Over

Game 921-922: Detroit at Cleveland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 17.072; Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.936
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.528; Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.312
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); Over

Game 925-926: Houston at Texas (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 15.018; Texas (Darvish) 14.755
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-300); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+250); Over

Game 927-928: Boston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Dempster) 16.808; LA Angels (Williams) 15.374
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 929-930: Seattle at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Bonderman) 15.307; Cincinnati (Latos) 14.794
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-230); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+190); Over
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