10/17/2011 05:32 PM
Win Total Update
October 17, 2011
Six weeks into the NFL season and a handful of teams are on their way to eclipsing the posted win total from Las Vegas in August. We'll detail ten teams that are on the fast track to finishing either 'over' or 'under' their win total, including the surprising Bengals.
Win total: 6 ½
Many sharps pounded the 'under' on Marvin Lewis' team when this number came out, assuming Carson Palmer was not going to be the quarterback. Rookie Andy Dalton has responded just fine by leading the Bengals to four wins through six games. Cincinnati hasn't played Baltimore or Pittsburgh yet, while taking care of business against Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis (a combined 3-14).
The Bengals take on four teams that have won two games or less after the bye with matchups against the Seahawks, Browns, Rams, and Cardinals. In spite of the four games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Bengals' defense can carry this team to three more wins and an 'over,'
Win total: 5 ½
The Bills weren't thought to do much inside the AFC East this season after three straight last-place finishes. Buffalo needed two rallies at home against Oakland and New England, which Bills' backers will certainly remember at the end of the season. Chan Gailey's club is 9-5 ATS the last 14 games since last November, including a 5-2 ATS mark at home.
After taking on the Jets and Redskins at home following the bye week, the Bills hit the road for four games in five weeks. Things don't get easier on the highway the rest of the way against the Jets, Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots. Grabbing two more wins isn't asking too much with a pair of games against Miami and home contests with Tennessee and Denver.
Win total: 7 ½
The popular pick before the season in the win total game was the Lions, who were expected to do big things in 2011. Detroit has held up that end of the bargain with five wins in the first five games prior to Sunday's loss to San Francisco. Jim Schwartz's squad will no doubt obliterate this number, but the Lions are in excellent shape to be in the playoffs.
Detroit will likely be favored in four of its final five home games with the exception of undefeated Green Bay on Thanksgiving. The road slate for the Lions isn't exactly a cakewalk with games at Chicago, New Orleans, Oakland, and Green Bay from mid-November on.
Green Bay (6-0)
Win total: 11 ½
The Packers are on cruise-control right now after picking up their fourth straight win by double-digits with Sunday's 24-3 blowout of the winless Rams. Green Bay is sitting all alone atop the NFC North following Detroit's loss, while the reigning champions look like the team to beat in the NFL.
The schedule is working out for the Packers to win at least 12 games, while finishing 14-2 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Green Bay takes on struggling Minnesota twice, while battling Oakland, Chicago, and Tampa Bay at home.
Win total: 9 ½
This bet is pretty much sealed shut if you wagered the 'under' on the Colts. Obviously, this number would have been much different if the news of Peyton Manning's neck situation was released a month earlier. Indianapolis has hung around in several defeats, but the loss of Manning is looming much bigger than anyone thought.
The Colts may be looking at the first pick of the draft following nine straight playoff appearances, as Indianapolis has three games remaining against Jacksonville and Carolina, which could cost them in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
Win total: 7 ½
The circus act in South Florida continues to provide follies for Dolphins' fans after scoring 16 points or less in each of the last three games. Miami is without Chad Henne following the quarterback's shoulder injury at San Diego put him out for the remainder of the season. The Dolphins have failed to win more than seven games in four of the last five seasons heading into 2011, but it looks like Tony Sparano's club will finish 'under' the total.
The only really good opportunities for the Dolphins to win at home come against the Broncos and Redskins, while Miami still faces the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, and Patriots the rest of the way.
Win total: 7
The Raiders are one meltdown away from possibly being 5-1 and sitting atop the AFC West. Oakland will have to settle for second place at the moment, while taking on Kansas City and Denver at home the next two games. Hue Jackson's team should break the seven-win plateau, while the Silver and Black shoots for a playoff berth in the loaded AFC.
Oakland heads to Minnesota, Miami, and Kansas City over the final two months of the season, while battling division-leading San Diego twice in this span after sweeping the Chargers last season.
St. Louis (0-5)
Win total: 7
It's hard to win games when teams can't score points. That seems like a simple theory, but the Rams have tallied just 49 points in five losses, by far the worst offense in the league. The early-season schedule wasn't going to be easy for St. Louis with games against the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Redskins, and Packers. The schedule eases up in the second half, but eclipsing the 'over' of 7 will be difficult.
St. Louis takes on all six division opponents in the final nine weeks, while taking on Cleveland and surprising Cincinnati in that stretch. The task for the Rams to make up five games on the division-leading 49ers will be tough unless St. Louis can score points quickly.
San Francisco (5-1)
Win total: 7 ½
The 49ers were expected to big things last season and failed miserably, but were left for dead to start this season in the awful NFC West. San Francisco won five of its first six games with the only loss coming in overtime to Dallas. The schedule only gets easier for Jim Harbaugh's club, who has already made trips out East to Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Detroit.
The Niners take on the Cardinals and Rams twice, while still heading to Seattle in Week 16. Outside of the division, San Francisco battles Cleveland and Washington, while trying to steal a home win over Pittsburgh in Week 15.
Win total: 7
The current leader in the AFC South after six weeks is the surprising Titans, who play the next three games at home. Tennessee is 2-0 at home with wins over Baltimore and Denver under its belt, while owning an 0-1 record inside the topsy-turvy AFC South by losing at Jacksonville in the opening week.
The Titans battle the Texans, Colts, and Bengals at LP Field over the next three weeks, while hosting the Bucs and Jaguars down the stretch. Tennessee has manageable road games at Carolina, Atlanta, Buffalo, and Indianapolis, as the Titans close out the season in a potential division championship at Houston.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: