cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
On 10/11/2011 10:18 PM in NFL

Cnotes Week # 6 NFL Best Bets 10/16-10/17 !

Trending: NFL Power of the Bye (Oct. 16)

We continue our series of studying teams’ performances in and out of the bye week. What you’ll see here should open your eyes. Hopefully it will expand your bankroll as well, as all of these powerful ATS or Over-Under trends boast winning percentages of at least 65 percent or at most 35 percent.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-5)

at CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-2)



ROAD TEAMS are 7-3 ATS in Cincinnati’s pre-bye week games since 2001. The trend held true last year, as the Bengals lost at home to Tampa Bay, 24-21, despite being 6½-point favorites over the Buccaneers. Bettors who rode the wave last year have Carson Palmer to thank—the Bengals were ahead 21-14 and in position to close it out with 2:28 to go when Palmer tried to get the ball to Terrell Owens on a third-and-13 play from midfield. Aqib Talib picked off the pass to set up the Bucs’ tying touchdown about a minute later, then on the next drive Palmer was picked by Tampa Bay’s Sabby Piscitelli, who returned it to the 34-yard line with 14 seconds to go. A 21-yard completion and 31-yard field goal sealed the deal.
Play On: INDIANAPOLIS ATS.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-4)

at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-1)



PHILADELPHIA has not done well in the game before the bye week, going 3-8-1 ATS in such situations since 1999. One of the Eagles’ worst performances of the 2010 season came in the game prior to their bye, a 37-19 loss to the Titans. Philadelphia led 19-10 early in the fourth quarter before giving up 27 unanswered points to the Titans, who were sparked by Kenny Britt’s 225 receiving yards, the most receiving yards ever given up by the Eagles.
Play On: WASHINGTON ATS

BUFFALO BILLS (4-1)

at NEW YORK GIANTS (3-2)



BUFFALO is still looking for its first pre-bye week win of the 21st century—the Bills haven’t won a game heading into their bye week since 1999, and they’re 2-9-1 ATS over that span. Oddsmakers expected Buffalo to buck that trend last season, making the Bills a 3-point home favorite over the Jaguars the week prior to their bye. Jacksonville, however, left Western New York with a 36-26 victory.
Play On: NEW YORK GIANTS (SU & ATS)

HOUSTON TEXANS (3-2)

at BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-1)



BALTIMORE is on a run of 8-1 ATS over its last nine post-bye week games. The Ravens stayed true to form last season with a convincing 26-10 win at home against a Miami team that won and covered all of its other 2010 road games except for the season finale in New England.
Play On: BALTIMORE ATS

CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-2)

at OAKLAND RAIDERS (3-2)



OVER the total is 8-3 in Cleveland’s last 11 games after the team’s bye. The Browns kept their high-scoring post-bye ways going last year with a 34-14 win at home over the Patriots when the Over/Under was 43½.
Play On: OVER THE TOTAL

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
10/11/2011 10:21 PM

Week 6 Openers

October 10, 2011

Five weeks into the NFL season the Eagles and Falcons are a combined 3-7, while the Bengals have as many wins as the two reigning division champions. The shortness of training camp may have something to do with the rise of underrated teams like Detroit, San Francisco, and Washington, but the mindset on these clubs has changed in the public's perception. Let's take a look at the M Resort's opening numbers in July compared to the numbers released this past Sunday for Week 6 in the NFL.

Panthers at Falcons - 1:00 PM EST

July opener: Atlanta -12 ½
Sunday opener: Atlanta -5

The Falcons have turned into pointspread poison at 1-4 ATS, while the defending NFC South champs are 2-3 out of the gate. Atlanta is only 0-1 inside the division thanks to a Week 3 loss at Tampa Bay, as the Falcons welcome in the 1-4 Panthers. Carolina is one of the best ATS plays this season at 4-1, including a cover in Sunday's three-point loss as 6 ½-point home 'dogs to New Orleans.

This is the biggest pointspread movement of any game this week not involving the Peyton Manning-less Colts. Obviously, no one believed that Cam Newton would keep Carolina as competitive as it is right now, but the Panthers' rookie still needs to rack up some victories. The Panthers have lost each of the last three meetings at the Georgia Dome, while the Falcons are 9-2 ATS the previous 11 games off a defeat.

Colts at Bengals - 1:00 PM EST

July opener: Indianapolis -2 ½
Sunday opener: Cincinnati -7

The Colts will not be favored for a very long time after blowing a 24-7 lead in a 28-24 setback to the struggling Chiefs, falling to 0-5. Indianapolis makes the short trip to Cincinnati, as the Bengals have turned into one of the league's biggest surprises following a 30-20 win at Jacksonville to improve to 3-2. Now, the expectations rise on Marvin Lewis' team as a healthy touchdown favorites over an Indianapolis club that has let the last three games slip away.

However, the Bengals have been an awful home favorite since 2009 with a 1-10 ATS mark, including a Week 3 loss to San Francisco. Even though the Colts haven't been listed as a road underdog much, Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in that role the last four seasons. The Bengals are 5-3 ATS before the bye week under Lewis, as Cincinnati has an excellent chance to be 5-2 by Halloween with a trip to Seattle after the open date next week.

Eagles at Redskins - 1:00 PM EST

July opener: Eagles -3 ½
Sunday opener: Pick-em

This has to be the week Philadelphia turns it around at 1-4, right? That's what Eagles' backers continue to believe after falling for a fourth straight week at Buffalo, 31-24 as short road 'chalk.' Andy Reid's squad hits the road again to battle Washington, as the Redskins are off the bye week with a 3-1 record.

The Eagles have had very little go right for them over the last four weeks, but can salvage their season with the inconsistent play of the Cowboys and Giants ahead of them in the NFC East. Philadelphia owns a 9-2 ATS record the last 11 road games against division foes, including a 59-28 beatdown of the Redskins last season in D.C. Since 2009, the Redskins are 2-6 ATS as a favorite, as Washington is listed as a one-point favorite as of Monday afternoon.

Rams at Packers - 1:00 PM EST

July opener: Green Bay -9 ½
Sunday opener: Green Bay -14 ½

Both teams were expected to win their respective divisions this season, but only one of them is on that track. Green Bay continues to impress with a 5-0 record, while covering four times through the first five weeks. The Rams can't get into the end zone on a consistent basis by scoring just four touchdowns in the team's four losses. St. Louis is fresh off the bye week, but now the Rams need to slow down the league's highest scoring offense.

Green Bay owns a 10-3-1 ATS record the last 14 games at Lambeau Field, including a pair of wins over the Saints and Broncos this season. Double-digit favorites have not been successful through five weeks with a measly 2-5 ATS record, including Green Bay's ATS loss at Carolina in Week 2.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
10/11/2011 10:28 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 6

October 11, 2011


Sunday, Oct 16 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
STL at GBP

STL: 1-7 ATS L8
STL: 4-0 ATS L4 off bye
GBP: 9-3 ATS L12 home favorite
GBP: 8-1 ATS L9 home vs non-division

JAX at PIT

JAX: 1-6 ATS L7 underdog
JAX: 0-5 ATS L5 off loss
PIT: 8-1-1 ATS L10 home off home game
PIT: 6-2 ATS L8 home vs non-division

PHI at WAS

PHI: 9-2 ATS L11 away vs division
PHI: 3-7 ATS L10 off loss
WSH: 2-6 ATS L8 favorite
WSH: 5-10 ATS L15 home vs division

SFO at DET

SFO: 8-2 'over' L10
SFO: 2-5 ATS L7 off win
DET: 9-1 ATS L10
DET: 5-0 ATS L5 home favorite

CAR at ATL

CAR: 3-6 ATS L9 away vs division
CAR: 5-1-1 'over' L7 away
ATL: 9-2 ATS L11 off loss
ATL: 8-0 ATS L8 off DD loss

IND at CIN

IND: 5-3-1 ATS L9 away
IND: 2-8 ATS L10 dog off loss
CIN: 1-10 ATS L11 home favorite
CIN: 4-8 ATS L12 home vs non-division

BUF at NYG

BUF: 2-4 ATS L6 away vs NFC
BUF: 6-3 ATS L9 away underdogs
NYG: 4-10 ATS L14 home favorites
NYG: 4-6 ATS L10 home vs AFC




Sunday, Oct 16 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
HOU at BAL

HOU: 2-6 ATS L8 underdog
HOU: 8-3 'over' L11 off loss
BAL: 8-1 ATS L9 off bye
BAL: 12-3 ATS L15 home vs non-division

CLE at OAK

CLE: 3-1 ATS L4 off bye
CLE: 1-5 ATS L6 underdog
OAK: 2-12 ATS L14 home favorite
OAK: 3-6 ATS L9 home vs non-division





Sunday, Oct 16 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
Dal at NEP

DAL: 5-1 ATS L6 off bye
DAL: 7-4 'over' L11 away vs AFC
NEP: 8-4 ATS L12 before bye
NEP: 6-2-1 ATS L9 off division win

N.O at TAM
NOR: 3-8 ATS L11 away favorite
NOR: 10-6 ATS L16 away vs division
TAM: 1-9 ATS L10 home underdog
TAM: 5-2-1 ATS L8 off loss





Sunday, Oct 16 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
Min at Chi

MIN: 1-5 ATS L6 off win
MIN: 2-8 ATS L10 away vs division
CHI: 3-7 ATS L10 home favorite
CHI: 2-6 ATS L8 home favorite vs division





Monday, Oct 17 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
Mia at NYJ

MIA: 15-6 ATS L21 away underdog
MIA: 3-1 ATS L4 off bye
NYJ: 1-9 ATS L10 favorite off loss
NYJ: 6-3 ATS L9 vs division



Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/11/2011 10:50 PM

    Tech Trends - Week 6

    October 11, 2011

    Sunday, Oct 9 (1:00 p.m. ET)
    Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
    Rams 0-4 SU and vs. line TY, now no covers last six since late 2010. Rams also "under" 5-2 last 7. Pack 6-1 vs. line last 7 at Lambeau Field. Pack and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

    Jags on 1-7 spread skid since late LY. Jags also "under" 4-1 TY. Steelers 6-1 vs. line last 7 at Heinz Field, and home team has covered in all five Steelers games TY Steelers and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

    Skins are 7-1 vs. line last 8 since late LY. Eagles no covers last 4 TY, and Andy Reid only 4-8-1 vs. points last 13 vs. Skins despite that 59-28 romp at FedEx Field LY. Skins also "under" 9-2 their last 11 on board since late 2010. Skins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

    Lions have won 12 straight (including preseason) and are undefeated vs. line (12-0-1) their last 13 outings after last Monday's 24-13 win vs. Bears. Lions also 18-3 vs. line since 2010 and "over" 13-6-2 since then as well ("over" 4-1 TY). Harbaugh making impact, however, at 4-0-1 vs. line already for 49ers. Lions and "over," based on Lions trends.

    Cam Newton has covered last four TY as he makes a difference in Carolina, while Falcons now 1-4 vs. line last 5 since late LY. Falcons 4-1 vs. line last five meetings. Falcons "over" 13-7-1 last 20, Cam "over" 4-1 TY. -"Over" and slight to Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

    Marvin Lewis 6-21 as chalk since 2007, 1-9 last 10 as Paul Brown Stadium chalk. Colts, based on Lewis chalk woes.

    Giants have covered last 3 TY, "over" 21-13 last 34 at home as well. Bills "over" 5-1 since late 2010. "Over," based "totals" trends.



    Sunday, Oct 16 (4:05 p.m. ET)
    Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

    Ravens 3-1 vs. line TY and "over" all 4, now "over" 5 straight since late 2010. Kubiak no covers his last four as dog and 2-6 vs. spread last 8 on road. Slight to Ravens, based on team trends.

    Raiders first home game post-Al Davis. Raiders "over" 16-10 last 26 since late '09, "over" 7-2 last nine at home. Raiders were 3-2 as home chalk LY after wretched marks in role previously. Browns 2-10 vs. line last 12 on board, and "over" 3-1 to start 2011. "Over" and Raiders, based on "totals" and team trends.




    Sunday, Oct 16 (4:15 p.m. ET)
    Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

    Belichick "over" 20-4 last 24, Dallas "over" 16-4 since LY. Cowboys have also covered last 4 as dog since late 2010. "Over" and slight to Cowboys, based on "totals" and team trends.

    Bucs only 4-17-1 last 22 vs. spread at home. Last five meetings in series covered by the road team, including three straight Saints covers at Raymond James Stadium. Four of last five in series "under" as well. Saints, based on team and series road trends.




    Sunday, Oct 16 (8:25 p.m. ET)
    Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
    Vikes won last week vs. Cards for first SU win of 2011, but still on 5-11-1 spread skid mid-2010. Bears have won and covered last three in series. Bears, based on team trends.




    Monday, Oct 17 (8:35 p.m. ET)
    Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

    Miami has won and covered 4 of last 5 in series. Sparano 18-7 vs. spread last 25 away from home. Jets "over" 24-7 last 30 since late 2009. Dolphins and "over," based on team and "totals" trends


    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/11/2011 10:54 PM

    Cleveland Browns Head West To Meet Oakland Raiders

    The Oakland Raiders hope to build on the momentum of a big win last weekend when they host the Cleveland Browns this Sunday.

    Oakland is currently a 5 ½-point favorite at home on the Don Best odds screen. Sunday’s game will be televised nationally on CBS with kickoff scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (ET).

    Neither the Raiders nor the Browns have been to the playoffs since 2002, and both have gone through significant rebuilds through the draft over the last few years to try and remedy these playoff droughts. With the AFC looking a lot more wide open than usual, this could be the year that one of these teams earns a postseason spot, and games like this one could prove to be essential.

    Cleveland (2-2) took a bye last week after losing 31-13 to Tennessee as a 2-point favorite in Week 4. Colt McCoy threw 61 passes in the losing effort, connecting on 40 of them for 350 passing yards and one touchdown.

    McCoy will have plenty of opportunities to throw this week against Oakland’s weak pass defense that is ranked 29th in the NFL allowing 299.6 yards per game. But the key to the game will be running back Peyton Hillis.

    The Browns got away from their smash-mouth identity a bit in the Titans game, as Hillis only had 10 carries for 46 yards. The Raiders allowed 100 rushing yards or less in each of their three wins, and over 180 rushing yards in each of their two losses; if Hillis can channel his 2010 form, he’ll give Cleveland a much better chance at an upset.

    Oakland (3-2) received the news that owner Al Davis passed away Saturday morning, and dedicated the game against Houston Sunday to his memory. It wasn’t a pretty game and it came right down to the wire, but Oakland held on for the upset win as a 4 ½-point underdog on the road.

    With home games against Cleveland this week and Kansas City next week, Oakland has a legitimate shot of entering its Week 8 bye at 5-2. While the defense and penalties could hold the Raiders back, a much-improved offense has helped Oakland jump out to this quick start (4-1 ATS), led by the league’s leading rusher in Darren McFadden.

    Though both teams have struggled since 2003, Cleveland has held the upper hand when these two teams have met. In their last five meetings, the Browns are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Their most recent game was in 2009, when Cleveland won 23-9 as a 3-point favorite at home.

    The total is set at 44 ½ for Sunday’s contest. The ‘over’ has won out in four of Cleveland’s last five games and five of Oakland’s last six games at home.

    Clouds are forecast for Sunday in Oakland, but no rain. The afternoon high is expected to be 70.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/11/2011 10:55 PM

    Houston Texans Pay Visit To Baltimore Ravens

    Division leaders duke it out at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 6 NFL betting action, as the Houston Texans pay a visit to the Baltimore Ravens. Kickoff from Baltimore is slated for 4:05 p.m. (ET) on Sunday, and there will be regional television coverage on CBS.

    Injuries have really ravaged the Texans (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) this season. Andre Johnson, one of the league's top receivers, sat out last week's 25-20 loss to the Oakland Raiders. Now to make matters worse, one of the NFL's best linebackers, Mario Williams, has been lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle that he suffered against Oakland.

    Schaub threw for 416 yards and two TDs without Johnson in the lineup last week. However, he was picked off twice, including in the end zone on the final play of the game, and only completed 24 of his 51 attempts.

    The reserve receivers looked lost on the day. Jacoby Jones only had one catch despite being targeted 11 times. Meanwhile, Kevin Walter had just two relevant plays in the entire game, a short touchdown reception in the first quarter and a 41-yard catch in the fourth quarter.

    Johnson is listed as doubtful on the preliminary injury report for Week 6, but no one is expecting to see him suit up again until at least Week 8.

    This is a pivotal stretch of games for Houston. The Texans are underdogs this week and should be again in Week 7 at the Tennessee Titans; if both games are lost, head coach Gary Kubiak is going to be wondering if this indeed is still a postseason team this year or not.

    The good news for Houston fans is that Arian Foster is clearly back in form. He essentially missed the first three weeks of the year with a hamstring injury, but has since come back in fantastic shape.

    The former Tennessee Volunteer rumbled for 155 yards on 30 carries against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4, and followed that up by rushing for 68 yards and catching five passes for a team-high 116 yards against Oakland.

    Now, this entire offense is going to find the sledding tough against a Baltimore defense which has done just about everything right this year.

    The Ravens rank No. 1 in the league in scoring defense at 14.2 PPG, and they are No. 3 at 284.5 YPG allowed. The defense has scored four touchdowns already on the campaign, and has forced a stunning 14 turnovers in just four games.

    Offensively, the man of the hour is going to be Ray Rice. The former Rutgers star leads the team in receiving with 242 yards and two touchdowns, as well as rushing with 297 yards and two touchdowns. He has a fantastic blocker in front of him in Vonta Leach, the former Texans back who paved the way for Foster's rushing title a season ago.

    These two teams played a great game at Reliant Stadium last year. The Texans trailed 28-7 after the second half kickoff was returned for a Baltimore touchdown, but they stormed back to score the final 21 points of regulation to force overtime. However, Schaub threw an interception to Josh Wilson which was returned for a touchdown to end the game.

    Houston has never beaten the Ravens, going 0-4 SU and just 1-3 ATS. The one cover though, came in the team's only other visit to M&T Bank Stadium, a 16-15 loss in 2005.

    The Ravens opened up this week a 6 ½-point favorites, but that line has since moved up to 7 ½. The total has stayed steady at 45.

    A wet week in Baltimore should finally clear out by Sunday, as there is fantastic weather in the forecast for this weekend. Temperatures should start in the high-60s at kickoff time, and there is next to no chance for rain.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/11/2011 10:57 PM

    Shootout Expected Between Cowboys And Patriots

    If the oddsmakers are correct, the Sunday battle between the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys is going to be a shootout. FOX will broadcast this marquee matchup at 4:15 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium.

    The Patriots are 7-7½ point home favorites at Don Best, with the total between 54½-55 points. The total is easily the highest this week, with the highest this year (55 points) when New England visited Oakland in Week 4.

    The Patriots (4-1 straight up, 4-1 against the spread) know a thing or two about going ‘over’ totals. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in their games this year and 20-4 in the last 24. The only contest that went ‘under’ this season was their 31-19 win at Oakland.

    Coach Bill Belichick’s team is coming off an emotional 30-21 victory over the rival Jets. That was a ‘cover’ of the 7 ½-points and New England is 2-0 SU and ATS at home this year, winning 19-straight regular season games at Gillette (12-6-1 ATS).

    BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 136 yards against New York, taking advantage of a defense that was daring the Patriots to run. They were also able to ice the game with a late field goal drive by continually running, beating the Jets at their own ‘ground and pound’ attack.

    Quarterback Tom Brady still threw for 321 yards last week in the newfound balanced offense. He’s averaged 31.5 passing attempts the last two games versus 44.3 the first three. Rushing attempts have increased from 24 to 32.5. The offense ranks first in total yards (495.2 YPG) and second in points (33 PPG), but keeping balance again is key this week.

    The much-maligned Pats defense is always a focus. It allowed just 158 passing yards to the Jets after an NFL-worst 368.8 YPG the first four. The Jets anemic pass attack with Mark Sanchez was a big reason, but that was still a defensive effort to build upon.

    The Cowboys (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) know they have a huge task at hand, but had the bye-week to prepare. They sit a game back of Washington (3-1) in the NFC East and a half-game behind the Giants (3-2), but can at least enjoy the misery of floundering Philly (1-4).

    Quarterback Tony Romo is under the most scrutiny and rightfully so. He engineered two game-winning comebacks against San Francisco (27-24) and Washington (18-16) and played heroically with injuries. He’s also had bonehead fumbles and picks that cost games versus the Jets (27-24) and Detroit (34-30). He’s thrown for 318 YPG (ranked fifth) and his QB rating (92.9) is ninth.

    Romo doesn’t have excuses not to play well this week. The Patriots secondary still has a lot to prove and Dallas will have its full compliment of receivers with Miles Austin (hamstring) back after missing two games and Dez Bryant (quad) much healthier after playing hurt the last two.

    Coach Jason Garrett would throw the ball over 40 times if he was confident Romo wouldn’t turn it over. However, that fear means Felix Jones should get his normal 15 carries or so.

    Garrett is also feeling better about his cornerbacks with Orlando Scandrick, Mike Jenkins and Terrence Newman all playing together for the first time. Having depth at that position is crucial as New England spreads defenses out with five receiver sets, trying to find mismatches.

    The Dallas defense has been very solid at first in run defense (61.8 YPG) and fourth in total yards (291.8 YPG). However, the 25.3 PPG allowed is just 23rd with 10 team turnovers (seven interceptions, three fumbles) a big reason.

    Coordinator Rob Ryan has had success against the Patriots in the past, beating them 34-14 while with Cleveland last year. He’ll also get some hints from his brother Rex after the Jets game last week.

    The Cowboys are 1-0-1 ATS on the road this year and 4-1-1 ATS away dating back to last year. They’re 6-0 ATS in their last six games as an underdog, ‘covering’ that Jets game as 6 ½-point ‘dogs.

    The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Dallas’ road games this year and 7-1 in the last eight away.

    New England didn’t seem to miss linebacker Jerod Mayo (knee) last week and he is out again. Several of his teammates are also questionable, but none are devastating losses.

    The Patriots are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings between the teams, most recently winning 48-27 in Big D in 2007. Weather is expected to get into the upper 60s, but should cool down some by kickoff.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/11/2011 10:59 PM

    Detroit Lions Host 49ers In Week 6 NFL Betting Clash

    Not many NFL insiders had a Week 6 contest between the San Francisco 49ers (4-1) and Detroit Lions (5-0) tabbed as the league’s marquee game, but that’s exactly what’s occurred through five weeks of the season.

    Sunday afternoon’s kickoff from Ford Field is scheduled for 1:00 (ET) and will be televised on FOX.

    Detroit was established as five-point home favorites after its 24-13 win over the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football, while sharp action has moved the total down to 46 ½ in most spots listed on the Don Best odds screen.

    NFL bettors have benefited from backing the boys from the Motor City, as the Lions are 4-0-1 ATS, while the ‘over’ has cashed in four of five opportunities. Going back to the preseason, the up-and-comers have gone 8-0-1 versus the number.

    Wide receiver Calvin Johnson has played a huge role in helping Detroit to wins in its first five games of the season for the first time since 1956. The former Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets star caught five passes for 130 yards and grabbed his ninth touchdown of the season when connecting with quarterback Matthew Stafford on a 73-yard scoring strike.

    The Lions' biggest story coming into this week is the running game, as it managed to gain 181 yards in Week 5 led by second-year back Jahvid Best with 163 yards on 12 carries.

    Detroit will not find this Sunday’s matchup an easy one, dropping seven consecutive games in the series to San Francisco, including a 20-6 loss as 14-point road underdogs in 2009.

    Total bettors may find the line to be inflated due to the Lions’ offensive numbers, which could lead to the ‘under’ cashing for the eighth-straight time in this series.

    San Francisco is coming off the most eye-catching win of last week’s round of games, registering a 48-3 blowout victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 2 ½-point home favorites. The 49ers managed to win the statistical battle by 146 yards Sunday, which was the first time all season that they have out-gained an opponent.

    Running back Frank Gore continues to be the spark plug offensively, going over the century mark for a second consecutive week, gaining 125 yards on 20 carries. He was averaging 49 yards and 2.5 yards a carry through the first three weeks.

    Niners first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh was known for a balanced attack during his time at Stanford, which leads me to believe that the offensive game plan will be to attack a Lions defense that ranks 18th against the run.

    Quarterback Alex Smith is doing just enough to lead his team to victory rather than defeat, completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 965 yards, while throwing seven touchdowns and a just a single interception. The former No. 1 pick made his only career start against Detroit in the 2009 win, completing 20-of-31 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown.

    San Francisco is a perfect 4-0-1 ATS on the season and has covered eight of its last 14 tries as an underdog.

    Weather will not be a factor in this contest due to be played indoors.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/11/2011 11:01 PM

    NFL Betting Preview For Week 6

    Week 5 in the NFL is in the books, and two NFC North teams remain the league’s only unbeaten teams at 5-0.

    The Detroit Lions wrapped up the action by continuing their best start since 1956 with a 24-13 home win against the defending division champion Chicago Bears (2-3) on Monday Night Football, covering the spread as 6 ½-point favorites with the total going ‘under’ 47 points.

    The defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers are the other undefeated team after they also succeeded in prime time, knocking off the Atlanta Falcons (2-3) on the road in a similar low-scoring affair 25-14 on Sunday Night Football. The Packers covered as 6 ½-point favorites as well and also saw the total go way ‘under’ the closing number of 54 points.

    The Bears find themselves essentially four games behind both Green Bay and Detroit since they have already lost to both of them. They host the Minnesota Vikings (1-4) in Week 6 on Sunday Night Football and will need to do a much better job of protecting quarterback Jay Cutler.

    The Vikings got off the schneid and registered their first victory of 2011 against the Cardinals (1-4) last Sunday in a 34-10 rout. Minnesota covered as 3 ½-point favorites thanks to running back Adrian Peterson, who scored three touchdowns in the first quarter as they built a 28-0 lead. They opened as 3 ½-point underdogs at Chicago according to the Don Best odds screen.

    The Indianapolis Colts were not as fortunate, becoming the first 0-5 team with a 28-24 home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (2-3). The Colts were 1 ½-point favorites and led 24-7 with 1:09 in the second quarter before the Chiefs stormed back to score 21 unanswered points.

    Indianapolis takes to the road in search of their first win this Sunday when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals (3-2), who lost the last meeting at home 17-13 in the preseason but are 7-point favorites in the rematch.

    The two other winless teams will be coming off their bye weeks at 0-4, and both have tough tasks ahead of them to end their droughts. The St. Louis Rams must visit the Packers, who are 14 ½-point favorites, while the Miami Dolphins also travel to meet the New York Jets (2-3) on Monday Night Football.

    The Dolphins will be without starting quarterback Chad Henne, who is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Matt Moore will replace Henne under center and face a Jets team that has lost three straight games but is favored by 7 ½ points in the AFC East battle.

    Other teams returning from their bye weeks include the Washington Redskins (3-1), Baltimore Ravens (3-1), Dallas Cowboys (2-2) and Cleveland Browns (2-2). The Redskins will host the disappointing Philadelphia Eagles (1-4), who were the preseason favorites to win the NFC East. Instead, Washington is atop the division, with the game currently sitting at a pick ’em.

    Dallas is half of one of the most anticipated matchups in Week 6 when the Cowboys travel to Foxboro to play Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. The Pats are a touchdown favorite over the 'Boys with the 54½-point total the biggest number on the NFL betting board this week.

    Teams on byes in Week 6 include the Chiefs, Cardinals, Denver Broncos (1-4), Tennessee Titans (3-2), San Diego Chargers (4-1) and Seattle Seahawks (2-3). The Broncos will spend their time off getting the offense prepared for a change at quarterback where Tim Tebow will take over for Kyle Orton following a 1-4 start to 2011. Tebow's first start will come in Week 7 when Denver travels to take on Miami.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
151rum Posts:908 Followers:13
10/11/2011 11:46 PM

MY PLAY IS ON HOUSTON BECAUSE IT OPENED AT 5.5 ..AND HAS BEEN WORKING STILL AND OVER THE YEARS.....GIANTS ARE A BIG PLAY AS I POSTED....MINNY WAS A 5 PT PLAY TOO OPENED AT 5.5.... AND TAMPA ALSO IS A 5 PT PLAY.....TY FOR THE STATS

You’ve got to get to the stage in life where going for it is more important than winning or losing.
151rum Posts:908 Followers:13
10/11/2011 11:49 PM

WE AGREE ON WASH AND GIANTS..I AM ON OAK....BUT GOING WITH TAMPA, AND HOUSTON AND MINNY.... GL 151

You’ve got to get to the stage in life where going for it is more important than winning or losing.
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
10/11/2011 11:56 PM

NFL odds: Week 6 opening line report

My, we are stubborn.

When it comes to things we believe about the NFL, we stick to the script. After all, we wrote the script, and we know our stuff. We’ll tweak it if we have to.
What we really should do is burn it.

Of course I’m talking about the Eagles, the same Eagles who added six Pro Bowlers in the offseason, became Super Bowl co-favorites, and laid points no matter how badly they performed -- or whom they were playing.

Hand the defense to a buddy who hadn’t coached defense since the 1980s? No problem.

Handle the ball like a hot potato? No worries. Treat run defense as an afterthought? It’s all good.

With nearly one-third of the season done, however, reality is overtaking the hype.

The mistake-prone Eagles, who drew the cash again as 3-point favorites in Buffalo, might not be favored Sunday for the first time. Caesars Palace opened their Week 6 game at Washington as a Pick-em. Other books list the ‘Skins as 1-point favorites.

Philly is 0-4 straight up and against the spread since beating hapless St. Louis.

“This is a team whose line value has been inflated because of that perception [that it is super-talented],” Todd Fuhrman, Caesar’s race and sportsbook supervisor, told ***********. “What we’ve seen the last few weeks doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season. Turnovers continue to mount, and they just can’t stop the run.”

So why not make them a field-goal dog against a 3-1 home team coming off a bye?

“They’re still a public team, so you can’t adjust the line too much,” Fuhrman said. “And this is essentially their last stand.”

The Eagles remind Fuhrman of last year’s Miami Heat, who were way overvalued at the start of the season.

“The difference is the Heat had 82 games to get things right,” Fuhrman said. “In the NFL a slow start seals your fate.”

Las Vegas handicapper and line consultant David Malinsky said Philly remains a “difficult assessment.”

“For all their faults, the Eagles are +38 in first downs and +468 in yards over their opponents, among the best in each category,” he told ***********. “So the bettors can see their potential, and will likely continue to look to them to find it. All the while there were serious mental mistakes Sunday that had nothing to do with bad bounces, and indicate that their poor start may be getting in their heads. They may not have the maturity to stay the course.”

The Las Vegas-based Sports Club recommended the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites. Founder Pete Korner had Washington as a 1-point favorite, but his fellow oddsmakers all had Philly.

“People do bet ‘em – that’s why we recommended them as the favorite,” Korner told ***********. “Something is not clicking there, but the perception is still that they’re very good and they’re going to break out in a big way. They have a lot of talent and they still attract money.”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

St. Louis at Green Bay (-14.5, 48), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13, 40.5)

The Rams could get even more points by kickoff. They’re so feeble offensively (11.5 ppg), thanks to injuries and “boy genius” coordinator Josh McDaniels.

“The focus has gotta always be on playing our best in November and December,” McDaniels curiously told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. It’s still October last time we checked.

Beat writer Jim Thomas noted the Rams sometimes struggle “just to get lined up right and get the ball snapped.”

SMALLEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia at Washington (-1, 48)

The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in division games since the start of last season. Washington made less splashier offseason additions – G Chris Chester, DLs Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen, DBs Josh Wilson and O.J. Atogwe -- but they’re paying off.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Dallas at New England (-7, 54)

These teams haven’t played since 2007, when they combined for 75 points in a 48-27 Pats win.

New England has scored at least 30 points in 13 straight regular-season games, posting an 11-2 O/U mark. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are on a 15-2 O/U tear dating to last year.

You won’t see a worse matchup of secondaries all season.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at Cincinnati (-7, 39.5), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13, 40.5)

All four of these teams put up at least 20 points Sunday.

Curtis Painter has great chemistry with Pierre Garcon, and rookie A.J. Green is showing why he was the first wideout drafted.

Under coach Mike Tomlin, the over is 16-10-1 in Pittsburgh’s division games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
10/12/2011 12:00 AM

NFL Spread Sheet: Over and over again

Oddsmakers set the highest NFL totals we’ve ever seen last week, and guess what? Nine of 13 games still went over.

So now they’ve shattered another record. Based on Covers.com data, this week’s average total is a whopping 46.4.

You can’t blame oddsmakers. They’ve got to do something to slow down the over train that’s cashing at a 63.2 percent clip (48-28-1).

Week 6’s highest total, Cowboys-Pats, opened at 54 and is already 55 at many books. The teams have combined to post 33-8 O/U mark (80.5 percent) since the start of last season.

“It’s getting to the point where you wonder how high you can make it,” Todd Fuhrman, Caesars Palace race and sportsbook supervisor, told Covers.com. “Even when we set numbers in the 50s, they’re going over.”

One play in the Jets-Patriots game said it all.

Darrelle Revis and Patriots wideout Deion Branch got their feet tangled late in the first half. Officials flagged Revis for illegal contact. It was a highly questionable call, and it went against the best corner in the game.

In the NFL, offense gets the benefit of the doubt.

Revis wasn’t alone. Refs flagged three other Jets’ defensive backs for illegal contact or pass interference Sunday.

“All those flags just keep extending drives,” Fuhrman said. “How is a defense supposed to stop a high-profile passing attack?”

Especially when stars like Brian Urlacher are flagged for phantom helmet-to-helmet hits (see: Monday night at Detroit). Trying to protect players, the league has boosted scoring even more.

Fuhrman acknowledges that the totals haven’t risen quickly enough.

“There’s just a perception out there that there’s going to be a regression to the mean, that defenses are going to catch up,” he said.

Las Vegas handicapper and line consultant David Malinsky summed up the linesmakers’ quandary.

“The oddsmakers continue to set higher totals each week, but still not enough,” he said. “They want to make sure their lines are simply not out of the ballpark, and that has not been the case: Overs cashed at a 9-2 rate going into the Sunday night game, but of those 11, six finished within a TD of the projection. So they are not too far off, but will have to continue to move them higher.

“Right now we see such hesitancy from the defenses that the notion that they will adjust and get the numbers more back towards normal may be an erroneous hypothesis,” Malinsky added. “Guys who spent their careers playing a certain way just are not adjusting well to the reduced limits on contact.”

Emboldened receivers are averaging 140 yards after contact per game, 25 more than in 2010, according to advancednflstats.com. That’s an increase of 22 percent.

Teamrankings.com has a database that goes back to 1985. The site said Week 5’s average total of 45.3 was the highest ever -- just above the 45.1 average for Week 9 of 2009, and the 45.0 average for Week 3 of 1985.

Vegas oddsmaker Pete Korner said bettors “are playing the way they should be, and they’re winning,” noting the overs have helped many bettors cash parlays and teasers.

But he also added: “We just can’t go from the numbers we’ve had and raise ‘em 10 points. That’s not going to create two-way action. We’re trying to find an area that’s in the middle.”

Even after the Sunday night and Monday night games stayed under, the over is 8-3-1 in prime-time games.

No team epitomizes the over trend more than Buffalo. All five Bills’ games have gone over, and by an average of 11.2 points.

Perhaps that’s why the Bills-Giants game, which opened at 49.5, is already at 50.5 or 51 depending on the book.

All five of Buffalo’s second halves also have gone over.

Maybe in December, brutal cold and swirling winds will do what NFL defenses have not been able to do so far.

HALFTIME BETTING

Other strong second-half trends are emerging.

Jacksonville has not covered any second half this season. Sunday, the Jaguars lost the second half 17-7 as a 3-point home dog to Cincy. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in the second half.

The Lions - who still have not lost a game ATS since Thanksgiving 2010, including preseason - are 5-0 ATS in second-half action. They outscored the Bears 17-3 as 6-point favorites.

Minnesota snapped its 0-4 ATS skid in second-half action on Sunday. The Vikes, getting three points, lost the second half 7-6 to Arizona after building a 28-3 lead.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
10/12/2011 12:03 AM

Top 5 NFL Trends

SF
DET DET are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.

SF
DET DET are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

BUF
NYG Over is 6-0-1 in NYG last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

IND
CIN CIN are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.

IND
CIN Over is 6-0-1 in IND last 7 games following a S.U. loss.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
10/12/2011 12:06 AM

Best and worst NFL bets coming off the bye week

In the last 10 seasons, NFL teams coming off a bye week are 168-141-8 against the spread, a win rate of 54.4 percent.

Eighteen of the league’s 32 teams have winning ATS records off a bye, four are exactly .500 and 10 have losing records. This year, teams will take their bye weeks from Week 5 through Week 11, which means now is a good time to provide a quick refresher on which teams fare well off the extra rest and which ones don’t.

Here is a look at the three best and worst teams off a bye week over the last decade:

BEST OFF A BYE

Baltimore Ravens (8-2 ATS)

The Ravens were strong off a bye before John Harbaugh took over in 2008, but they’ve been virtually unstoppable since. Harbaugh is 3-0 ATS off a bye and has won all three games by a combined 84-27.

In the process, the Ravens have covered the spread by 11, 18.5 and 17 points, and haven’t allowed more than 10 points in any of the three games. Both of the Ravens’ ATS losses have come against the Steelers — on the road in 2007 and at home in 2001.

The Ravens face the Texans off a bye this week as 7-point home favorites.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-2 ATS last 10)

Andy Reid’s bye week record is legendary. Since taking over the Eagles in 1999, Reid has never lost off a bye. He is a perfect 12-0 straight up.

Reid’s approach is to give his players the week off and get them out of the building. It’s something he adopted from former coach Mike Holmgren, who he served under while in Green Bay. Most coaches in the league don’t like to “throw away” a week, but Reid doesn’t seem to mind. Given his bye-week record both straight up and ATS, why should he?

Buffalo Bills (7-2-1 ATS)

Despite a 5-5 straight-up record and having five different coaches over the last decade, the Bills have been one of the league’s best ATS teams off a bye.

When the Bills cover, they do it easily, clearing the spread by an average of 7.43 points. Four of Buffalo’s ATS wins have come at home. The Bills will host the Redskins off a bye in Week 8.

WORST OFF A BYE

Oakland Raiders (2-8 ATS)

No team in the NFL has been worse off a bye than Oakland, which has lost eight in a row both straight up and ATS. Not only do the Raiders routinely get blown out, but they don’t even come close to covering the spread.

The Raiders have lost ATS by an average of 10.8 points, which includes four games where they failed to come within 11 points of the spread. They have also lost twice outright as favorites.

Seattle Seahawks (2-8 ATS)

Seattle had lost eight of nine ATS off a bye until last season, Pete Carroll’s first as head coach. The Seahawks won outright at Chicago as 6-point underdogs.

Before then, it was ugly. Seattle lost by 21 points as a 10-point dog in 2009 and by 38 as a 7-point dog in 2008. The Seahawks have a bye this week but will take on the Browns in Week 7, where they’ll likely be listed as 3- or 4-point road underdogs.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-7 ATS)

This shouldn’t be a particularly surprising inclusion on this list when you consider the players Cincinnati has had on its roster through the years. For the Bengals, bye weeks have represented great opportunities to get arrested, not prepare for the next opponent.

Marvin Lewis is 3-5 off a bye in his eight seasons as head coach. The Bengals have, however, covered the spread off a bye in two of the last three seasons, including a 10-point outright win against the Ravens as three-point dogs in 2009.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:40 PM

    NFL
    Dunkel


    Week 6

    Minnesota at Chicago
    The Bears look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog. Chicago is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

    SUNDAY, OCTOBER 16

    Game 201-202: St. Louis at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.363; Green Bay 143.741
    Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 23 1/2; 45
    Vegas Line: Green Bay by 14 1/2; 48
    Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-14 1/2); Under

    Game 203-204: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 122.672; Pittsburgh 133.399
    Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2; 43
    Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 13; 40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+13); Over

    Game 205-206: Philadelphia at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 133.402; Washington 130.205
    Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 45
    Vegas Line: Pick; 47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia; Under

    Game 207-208: San Francisco at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 134.612; Detroit 141.248
    Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 51
    Vegas Line: Detroit by 4; 46
    Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4); Over

    Game 209-210: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.082; Atlanta 128.129
    Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3; 53
    Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 51
    Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+4); Over

    Game 211-212: Indianapolis at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 124.907; Cincinnati 133.348
    Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 38
    Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 41
    Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

    Game 213-214: Buffalo at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 133.805; NY Giants 131.575
    Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2; 54
    Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 50
    Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3 1/2); Over

    Game 215-216: Houston at Baltimore (4:05 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.513; Baltimore 144.192
    Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 9 1/2; 40
    Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-7 1/2); Under

    Game 217-218: Cleveland at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 128.056; Oakland 132.704
    Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4 1/2; 47
    Vegas Line: Oakland by 6; 44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6); Over

    Game 219-220: Dallas at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.730; New England 143.258
    Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 51
    Vegas Line: New England by 7; 55
    Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Under

    Game 221-222: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.125; Tampa Bay 131.865
    Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 51
    Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4; 49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-4); Over

    Game 223-224: Minnesota at Chicago (8:20 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 127.744; Chicago 134.781
    Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7; 38
    Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under


    MONDAY, OCTOBER 17

    Game 225-226: Miami at NY Jets (8:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.319; NY Jets 135.780
    Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 9 1/2; 47
    Vegas Line: NY Jets by 7; 43
    Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-7); Over

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:42 PM

    Post a Comment Here...NFL
    Long Sheet


    Week 6

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sunday, October 16

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ST LOUIS (0 - 4) at GREEN BAY (5 - 0) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ST LOUIS is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
    ST LOUIS is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    ST LOUIS is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    ST LOUIS is 59-85 ATS (-34.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    ST LOUIS is 83-116 ATS (-44.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    ST LOUIS is 40-64 ATS (-30.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
    GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    JACKSONVILLE (1 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
    PITTSBURGH is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 51-29 ATS (+19.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PHILADELPHIA (1 - 4) at WASHINGTON (3 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 143-104 ATS (+28.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 1) at DETROIT (5 - 0) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DETROIT is 0-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CAROLINA (1 - 4) at ATLANTA (2 - 3) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 59-34 ATS (+21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 5) at CINCINNATI (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CINCINNATI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    CINCINNATI is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BUFFALO (4 - 1) at NY GIANTS (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HOUSTON (3 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 4:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 4:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DALLAS (2 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 4:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ORLEANS (4 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 4:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MINNESOTA (1 - 4) at CHICAGO (2 - 3) - 10/16/2011, 8:20 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Monday, October 17

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIAMI (0 - 4) at NY JETS (2 - 3) - 10/17/2011, 8:30 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:43 PM

    NFL
    Short Sheet


    Week 6

    Sunday, 10/16/2011

    ST LOUIS at GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM ET
    ST LOUIS: 2-13 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play last game
    GREEN BAY: 9-1 ATS off 3 straight wins

    JACKSONVILLE at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
    JACKSONVILLE: 5-14 ATS off ATS loss
    PITTSBURGH: 19-8 ATS if 50+ pts scored last game

    PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
    PHILADELPHIA: 7-0 Over in conference road games
    WASHINGTON: 6-12 ATS at home vs. Philadelphia

    SAN FRANCISCO at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
    SAN FRANCISCO: 11-28 ATS Away off win by 14+
    DETROIT: n/a

    CAROLINA at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
    CAROLINA: 6-0 ATS if 50+ pts scored last game
    ATLANTA: 14-29 ATS in 2nd of BB home games

    INDIANAPOLIS at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
    INDIANAPOLIS: 7-0 Over if total is 35.5 to 42
    CINCINNATI: 0-9 ATS as home favorite

    BUFFALO at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
    BUFFALO: 1-4 ATS vs. NY Giants
    NY GIANTS: 0-7 ATS if allowing 400+ yds last game

    HOUSTON at BALTIMORE, 4:05 PM ET
    HOUSTON: 15-31 ATS Away off home game
    BALTIMORE: 18-7 ATS at home after scoring 30+

    CLEVELAND at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
    CLEVELAND: 19-8 Over Away off BB Home games
    OAKLAND: 13-27 ATS off SU dog win

    DALLAS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
    DALLAS: 12-1 Over after 1st month of season
    NEW ENGLAND: 18-4 Over in all games

    NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY, 4:15 PM ET
    NEW ORLEANS: 8-0 Under off 2 straight road wins
    TAMPA BAY: 0-8 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less

    MINNESOTA at CHICAGO, 8:20 PM ET NBC
    MINNESOTA: 8-2 Over in wks 5 through 9
    CHICAGO: n/a


    Monday, 10/17/2011

    MIAMI at NY JETS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
    MIAMI: 11-24 ATS vs. Jets
    NY JETS: 14-5 Over vs. conference

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:45 PM

    NFL


    Week 6

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sunday, October 16

    1:00 PM
    ST. LOUIS vs. GREEN BAY
    St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    St. Louis is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games at home
    Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    1:00 PM
    CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
    Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
    Atlanta is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

    1:00 PM
    INDIANAPOLIS vs. CINCINNATI
    Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
    Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

    1:00 PM
    SAN FRANCISCO vs. DETROIT
    San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Detroit is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games

    1:00 PM
    BUFFALO vs. NY GIANTS
    Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
    NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games

    1:00 PM
    JACKSONVILLE vs. PITTSBURGH
    Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    1:00 PM
    PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
    Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
    Washington is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

    4:05 PM
    CLEVELAND vs. OAKLAND
    Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
    Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

    4:05 PM
    HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
    Houston is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
    Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
    Baltimore is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

    4:15 PM
    NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
    New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home

    4:15 PM
    DALLAS vs. NEW ENGLAND
    Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 17 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of New England's last 16 games

    8:20 PM
    MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
    Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
    Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota


    Monday, October 17

    8:30 PM
    MIAMI vs. NY JETS
    Miami is 6-16-3 ATS in their last 25 games when playing NY Jets
    Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 7 games
    NY Jets are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against Miami

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:48 PM

    Week 6 Preview: 49ers at Lions

    SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-1)

    at DETROIT LIONS (5-0)


    Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    Line: Detroit -4, Total: 46

    Two of the league’s biggest surprises square off on Sunday when 5-0 Detroit hosts 4-1 San Francisco.

    In this matchup, defense will be at a premium. The Niners rank second in the NFL in scoring defense (15.6 PPG), while Detroit is tied for fourth, allowing 17.8 PPG. The 49ers trounced the Bucs 48-3 in Week 5, looking the best they have in a long time in both phases of the offense. Detroit’s disruptive defensive line and ball-hawking secondary will give San Fran much more of a challenge in this game. The Lions passing combination of QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson is emerging as one of the NFL’s best, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against a physical, playmaking 49ers’ defense. San Francisco has won many of its games in 2011 because of 14 takeaways, but Detroit has turned the ball over a league-low four times this season. Both teams are 4-0-1 ATS so far, but the Lions have been a great bet for two years now, going 16-3-2 ATS (84%), including 9-1 ATS at home since 2010 began. The pick here is DETROIT to win and cover.

    This four-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Lions.

    DETROIT is 14-2 ATS (87.5%, +11.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 23.9, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 4*).

    The 49ers destroyed Tampa Bay, which was coming off a short week, and now Detroit has one day less to prepare after playing Monday night. San Francisco RB Frank Gore rushed for 125 yards, while QB Alex Smith threw for 170 yards and 3 TD, in leading the team to its third straight win. After rushing for just 69.7 YPG in their first three contests, the 49ers are averaging 189 rushing YPG in their past two games. But even with the offensive explosion, the team still ranks 27th in the league in total offense (300 YPG).

    WR Josh Morgan (15 rec, 220 yds, 1 TD) will no longer be able to help Smith, as his season ended Wednesday when he was placed on IR with a fractured right ankle. The defense has generated three turnovers in four different games this year, and has the fifth-best run stop unit in football, allowing just 76 rushing YPG.

    Detroit will be content to throw the football, but it showed last week that it can also run the ball with 181 yards on 20 carries. Even if Jahvid Bust didn’t score on an 88-yard TD scamper, the Lions still averaged 4.9 YPC on their other 19 rushing attempts. Stafford and Johnson continue to amaze. Stafford is averaging 287 passing YPG with 13 TD and 4 INT, while Johnson gained a season-high 130 yards against Chicago and scored his league-leading ninth touchdown.

    On the defensive side of the ball, Detroit is fourth in the league in passing yards per attempt (5.9 YPA). The pass rush has been solid, as 10 of the team’s dozen sacks have come from the D-Line. The Lions have dropped seven straight meetings with San Francisco and only earned one ATS win over this span (1-5-1 ATS). However, six of these seven meetings occurred in San Francisco.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:50 PM

    Week 6 Preview: Eagles at Redskins

    PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-4)

    at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-1)


    Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    Line: Philadelphia -1.5, Total: 47

    The Eagles are staring at an early-season must win when they visit division rival Washington on Sunday.

    A month ago, many experts would’ve guessed this would be a matchup of the NFC East leader versus the division cellar-dweller, but with the reverse scenario in mind. The Eagles are coming off four straight losses as their defense struggles and their offense turns the ball over. The Redskins are coming off a bye week with a 3-1 record thanks to a surprisingly strong defensive unit. Eagles QB Michael Vick torched the Skins in D.C. last November, en route to a 59-28 victory. Philly’s offense should be able to put points on the board, and finally put a stop to its losing streak. Play on PHILADELPHIA.

    This FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Eagles.

    Andy Reid is 99-63 ATS (61.1%, +29.7 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 23.8, OPPONENT 18.2 - (Rating = 2*).

    Vick was phenomenal the last time he played in Washington, becoming the first player in NFL history to rush for 50+ yards (80) and two scores, while throwing for 300+ yards (333) and four more TD. Vick has not enjoyed a great 2011 season under center. His 267 passing YPG is strong, but 8 TD and 7 INT is not a good ratio. He threw four of those picks in last week’s 31-24 loss to Buffalo. RB LeSean McCoy averaged 105 rushing YPG on 19.0 carries per game in Weeks 1-3, but has only carried the pigskin 20 total times (for 98 yards) in the past two games.

    The Eagles defense ranks 26th in scoring (26.4 PPG), 30th in rushing (140 YPG) and 30th in passing touchdowns allowed (11). Despite its high-priced secondary. Philly has picked off only three passes all season.

    The matchup of Washington’s resurgent running game against Philly’s inconsistent defense will likely be the difference in this game. But who exactly will run the ball for the Redskins remains a bit of a mystery. Tim Hightower (probable with a shoulder injury) has more than half the team’s carries, but Ryan Torain had a huge last game in St. Louis, galloping for 135 yards on just 19 attempts (7.1 YPC). Rookie Roy Helu has also been running strong with 126 yards on 24 carries (5.3 YPC). Washington will need its ground game to thrive as QB Rex Grossman has completed just 58% of his passes and has thrown five picks in the past three games.

    The Redskins defense has been sound in all facets, placing among the league’s top six in scoring (15.8 PPG), yardage (297 YPG), First Downs (15.5 per game) and passing touchdowns (three).

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:53 PM

    Week 6 Preview: Bills at Giants

    BUFFALO BILLS (4-1)

    at NEW YORK GIANTS (3-2)


    Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    Line: New York -3, Total: 50

    The 4-1 Buffalo Bills look to stay hot against an angry Giants team desperate to erase last week’s disappointing home loss to Seattle from its collective memory.

    The Giants are coming off a five-turnover upset loss to Seattle, and now face a Buffalo defense that has forced 16 turnovers so far this season, including 10 interceptions in the past three games. Giants QB Eli Manning has looked unstoppable at times this season, but needs to avoid the mistakes that plagued him in Week 5 (2 INT, 1 lost fumble) and most of last season. But New York had only turned the ball over four times in four games before the Seattle debacle, so this hasn’t been a huge problem for the team in 2011. A bigger problem for the Bills is their massive injury list. OT Demetrius Bell (shoulder), LB Chris Kelsay (calf) and WR Donald Jones (ankle) will all miss Sunday’s game. RB C.J. Spiller (knee), CB Terrence McGee (hamstring) and DT Kyle Williams (ankle) are all questionable. With the Giants formidable D-Line nearly intact (Justin Tuck questionable with a groin injury), they will be able to disrupt Buffalo’s offense and help propel NEW YORK to the bounce-back victory.

    This rare five-star FoxSheets coaching trend also backs the G-Men:

    Tom Coughlin is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of NY GIANTS. The average score was NY GIANTS 29.3, OPPONENT 18.7 - (Rating = 5*).

    The Bills continue to move the ball on offense and make huge plays on defense. Fred Jackson has already tallied 712 total yards in five games and has a chance to excel against the Giants’ struggling run defense, giving up 159 rushing YPG in the past three contests. Versatile second-year RB C.J. Spiller has also done a nice job, averaging 7.1 YPC. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw nine touchdowns in his first three games, but only has one TD toss in his past two contests.

    Defensively, Buffalo has really not been able to stop anybody without forcing turnovers. The team ranks 30th in total defense (422 YPG) and is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards in the league at 138 YPG.

    New York’s ground game has been a huge disappointment, as Brandon Jacobs is averaging 3.1 YPC and his team is not much better at 3.2 YPC (2nd-worst in NFL). In the past two games, the G-Men have only 123 rushing yards on 2.5 YPC. The Giants have been able to overcome this rushing deficiency with Eli Manning’s arm. Manning’s 9.1 yards per pass attempt is third-best in the NFL, behind only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Hakeem Nicks leads the team in receptions (28) and yards (412), and Victor Cruz is stretching opposing defenses with 20.3 yards per reception.

    On defense, the Giants already have 18 sacks. Jason Pierre-Paul has seven of these sacks, while the finally healthy Osi Umenyiora has 3.5 sacks in his two games. New York has also shown a propensity for making big plays, as the team has forced at least two turnovers in four straight contests.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:55 PM

    Jaguars, Steelers Renew Rivalry In Pittsburgh

    The underdog has covered the spread in the last seven series clashes.
    A little-known rivalry is about to be revisited on Sunday in Week 6 of the NFL when the Jacksonville Jaguars head over to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers. Kickoff from Heinz Field is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with coverage being handled by CBS.

    Currently on the Don Best odds screen, the Steelers are a big 12-point favorite with a low total set at 40.

    It’s time for a little history lesson. Fans and bettors across the National Football League may not be quite aware, but this has been a fantastic series for years. There have been plenty games decided by two points or less, a fantastic playoff game, and don’t forget that they used to be division rivals in the old AFC Central.

    In 2007, Jacksonville became the first team ever to win in Pittsburgh twice in one season. When these defenses were both great, they once played a game in 2006 that ended 9-0.

    However, these squads haven’t met since 2008 when in another great battle between the two, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw the game-winning touchdown pass in the final two minutes of play.

    Getting back to the present, the Steelers come into this game at 3-2 and could be exactly where they want to be, not getting much attention and hearing that they are “old.” Well, they are a little old. They also have offensive line issues.

    Pittsburgh also battled those same issues into two Super Bowl appearances the last three years with one win.

    That decrepit defense is ranked No. 2 in the NFL and Troy Polamalu always needs to be accounted for as he is one of the best players in football.

    Last week, Roethlisberger just did what he always does. With a hurt foot he only threw five touchdown passes against the Tennessee Titans in a blowout that was not as close as the final 38-17 score.

    In that same game they were without starting running back Rashard Mendenhall and his replacement, Jonathon Dwyer, went for over 100 yards on the ground with 76 of those coming on one run.

    For the Jaguars who come in at 1-4, it’s very simple. Their defense has played well enough to win every game this year – yes, even the 32-3 New York Jets blowout – and their offense has not.

    The ‘D’ has held four out of five opponents to under 300 offensive yards, the one exception being the New Orleans Saints. A week ago, leading the Cincinnati Bengals 20-16 with five minutes left, punter Matt Turk kicked a 22-yarder from his own end zone into strong winds leading to a 23-yard game-winning TD drive for Cincy. Then, the game ended on a wacky lateral play by the Jags’ offense which the Bengals picked up for another score with zeroes on the clock.

    Do not be fooled; that score says the Jaguars gave up 30 points, but who would you blame?

    Turk has since been released and replaced by Nick Harris.

    Rookie QB Blaine “Gabbo” Gabbert has been exactly what a rookie is expected to be. He shines brightly at moments and doesn’t in others. He is progressing, but Jacksonville’s offense is last in yards per game and only musters 11.8 points per outing. Despite all of this, star running back Maurice Jones-Drew is having an amazing year averaging 5.0 yards per carry and he is fourth in the NFL in rushing.

    Linebacker James Harrison for the Steelers is still likely to be out a while with a broken right orbital bone and nose tackle Casey Hampton looks to be questionable. Mendenhall continues to make progress with his hamstring.

    The best news for the Jags is that they could have their best pass rusher, DE Aaron Kampman, play for the first time all season. Surprising news was that LB Darryl Smith did not practice Wednesday. Pro-Bowl special teamers Kassim Osgood and Montell Owens should also return.

    Jacksonville has been one of the worst teams against the spread, going 1-4 like their straight up record. However, the underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings in this series and the Jags are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in their last five matchups.

    Early weather reports suggest temperatures in the 60s with a chance of rain.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:58 PM

    Buffalo Bills Have Tough Test At NY Giants

    The Buffalo Bills have their toughest road test to date when they visit the New York Giants in an intra-state affair on Sunday. CBS will broadcast from MetLife Stadium at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

    The Bills are mostly 3-point ‘dogs at Don Best, but can be found at 3 ½. The NFL betting total is 50-points, with the teams a combined 8-1-1 ‘over’ this season.

    Buffalo (4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) is one of the NFL’s best stories after a 4-12 campaign last year and not breaking .500 since 2004. The Bills' success has been primarily at home, going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) including 18 and 21 point comeback wins respectively over Oakland (38-35) and New England (34-31).

    Last week’s home game against Philly also had some good fortune. Quarterback Michel Vick (four picks) decided he liked to throw to Bills players as much as his own, although one wasn’t really his fault. Buffalo held off an Eagles rally for a 31-24 win as 3-point underdogs.

    The 55 combined points scored last week went ‘over’ the 52 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-0 for Buffalo this season with the team scoring 32.8 PPG (ranked third) and allowing 24 PPG (ranked 15th).

    Coach Chan Gailey’s guys still need to prove themselves on the road. There was an opening 41-7 rout of the Chiefs, but they’re a shell of the team that made the playoffs last year. Buffalo’s only other road game was Week 4 at Cincinnati, blowing a 17-3 halftime lead to lose 23-20 as 3-point favorites.

    Ryan Fitzpatrick has had a great season overall (96.4 quarterback rating, ranked seventh), but the Harvard graduate hasn’t generated much production the second half of the last two games. That can’t happen again Sunday.

    Fitzpatrick and the Bills will be without deep-threat receiver Donald Jones (ankle), who is out several weeks. They were thin at receiver before the injury and it could mean more carries for running back Fred Jackson (480 rushing yards, third in the NFL).

    New York will try to load up more at the line of scrimmage, but its run defense has really struggled the last three weeks (159 YPG). Injuries have played a part and defensive ends Osi Umenyiora (knee) and Justin Tuck (groin) are both questionable this week.

    Buffalo is also expected to be without left tackle Demetrius Bell (shoulder) and linebacker Chris Kelsay (calf). The latter is listed as doubtful for now.

    The Giants (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) are reeling a bit after a 36-25 home loss to Seattle last week as 10-point favorites. That’s a game playoff contenders can’t lose and it also ended a nice streak of three consecutive wins and covers.

    Quarterback Eli Manning threw for 420 yards and three TDs, but also had three interceptions. The final one was inside the Seattle 10-yard line late in the contest and returned for the game-sealing score.

    One good thing about Manning is he has a short memory and won’t be afraid to attack the Bills defense. He has a 102.3 quarterback rating, tied for fourth-best in the NFL and has thrown 11 touchdowns to just five interceptions, even with the three miscues last week.

    Manning needs to play well every game thanks to a rushing attack that’s just 28th in the league (83.8 YPG). The team does have a solid running tandem in Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, but the latter missed last week (knee) and is questionable.

    Offensive line is another concern with center David Baas (neck) missing Seattle and questionable. Guard Chris Snee is also questionable after suffering a concussion last game. The Bills run defense ranks 29th (138.4 YPG) overall, so pounding the rock still has to be in New York’s game-plan.

    The Giants did cover their only other home game this season, 28-16 as 7-point favorites over St. Louis in Week 2. However, they’re 0-6 in their last six home games as a favorite of 3-points or less.

    The ‘over’ is 1-0-1 in New York’s home game this year and 5-1-1 in its last seven there.

    The teams haven’t met since 2007 when the Giants won 38-21 in Buffalo. Rain the next few days is expected to give way to clear skies on Sunday, with temps into the 60s.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 08:00 PM

    Colts Search For First Win At Cincinnati Bengals

    The Indianapolis Colts (0-5) have officially entered the Andrew Luck sweepstakes as they travel to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Paul Brown Stadium. Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on CBS.

    Indianapolis has lost its first five games of the season due to starting quarterback Peyton Manning being sidelined with a neck injury, which has now fueled speculation of the team’s quest in grabbing the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL draft. The Colts know that Stanford’s junior quarterback is a special player and a perfect replacement for an aging player that was chosen first overall by the franchise during the 1998 draft.

    Las Vegas oddsmakers are staying on top of the situation, placing the Colts as 7-point road underdogs this weekend, while the total has moved up three points to 41.

    The two teams in this series are separated by a little more than 100 miles down Interstate 74 and the Colts have had success in this series, posting an 8-2 record in games played in Cincinnati. Indianapolis scored a 23-17 win as 6 ½-point home favorites in last year’s meeting, even though the team was out-gained by a 341-256 margin.

    The final tally on the scoreboard stayed well below the posted total of 47.

    Curtis Painter is expected to make his third career start after throwing for 277 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 28-24 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs as a 1-point home favorite. Veteran signal-caller Kerry Collins (concussion) hasn’t been cleared to participate in a game as of yet, but this week’s availability will be determined Friday.

    The Colts were unable to hold a 24-7 second-quarter lead, giving up 194 rushing yards and losing the time-of-possession battle by a wide 33:07-to-26:53 margin.

    Bettors will find that the Colts are still 6-2 ATS as road underdogs, while going over the total in four of their last five games in that situation.

    Cincinnati has pulled off consecutive fourth-quarter comebacks to push its record above .500, picking up a 30-20 win as 1-point road favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars in its latest effort.

    The Bengals' strength is their defense, ranking first in the league in fewest yards allowed. Cincinnati's current 279.6 yards per game average would rank sixth in franchise history. The unit’s effort also has them sitting atop the rankings of fewest yards allowed per offensive play (4.52).

    Rookie Andy Dalton is making quite a name for himself due to late-game heroics, but he’s still possesses a 78.7 passer rating, which sits 13th among AFC quarterbacks. He completed 21-of-33 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns with an interception last week.

    Running back Cedric Benson continues to play a big part in the Bengals’ offense, carrying the ball 101 times, which is the second-most in the league with an average of 4.0 yards a carry. Benson is still in the process of appealing a 3-game suspension due to an offseason arrest, but the appeal is still pending and he's expected to be in the lineup this week.

    Early weather forecasts in the Cincinnati area suggest partly cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the low-70s.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 08:02 PM

    Cam Newton, Panthers Visit Atlanta Falcons

    The Atlanta Falcons have beaten up on the Carolina Panthers over the past few seasons, but they will be hosting a much different team on Sunday when the NFC South rivals square off at the Georgia Dome.

    Rookie quarterback Cam Newton has made the Panthers (1-4) a much more dangerous team offensively, and he alone should be able to help them top the 10 points Carolina scored in each of last year’s meetings.

    FOX begins its broadcast of the game at 1:00 p.m. (ET). The Falcons (2-3) opened as 6-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 51. Early betting action already pushed the line down two points in Carolina’s favor to +4.

    The Panthers are currently ranked No. 22 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll while Atlanta comes in and No. 15.

    The Panthers lost to the Falcons twice last year by identical 31-10 scores but have averaged 23.2 points this season, with poor weather conditions in Week 3 the only thing that has stopped them from scoring 21 or more. Newton ranks fourth in the NFL with 1,610 passing yards, although he has six interceptions to go along with his seven touchdown passes.

    He has added another five touchdowns on the ground, tied for the second-most of any player in the league.

    The big problem for Carolina has been defense, or a lack thereof, in four of the first five games. The team is surrendering 26.4 points and 366.2 yards per game. Outside of a 16-10 home win over Jacksonville, the Panthers have given up 28 points or more in their four losses.

    Meanwhile, Atlanta has struggled to score in every other game this year, a strange trend for the defending division champions who have already equaled last season’s loss total after finishing 13-3 in 2010. The Falcons have averaged 32.5 points in their two wins and have not scored more than 14 in their three losses.

    Like Newton, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan also has seven touchdown passes and six picks after finishing last year with 28 and nine, respectively. The major difference obviously is that Ryan is in his fourth season and seems to be taking a step back.

    Ryan has averaged nearly 221 yards per game in six career meetings with Carolina, throwing seven touchdowns and four interceptions.

    The Falcons are 1-4 against the spread this campaign, but 4-1 ATS in the past five games against the Panthers with the ‘over’ going 3-0-2. Carolina has covered four straight this season despite losing three of them straight up, with the ‘over' going 4-1 overall so far in 2011.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 08:35 PM

    Unbeaten Packers Host Winless St. Louis Rams

    What a difference a year and a week makes for the Green Bay Packers and St. Louis Rams heading into their battle at Lambeau Field on Sunday.

    In Week 17 of last season, the Rams and Packers both needed to win in order to get into the playoffs. Green Bay (5-0) accomplished that goal, ended up winning the Super Bowl and has not been defeated since then while St. Louis (0-4) lost and is still searching for its first victory of 2011.

    This week's contest is scheduled for a 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff with television coverage provided by FOX. The Packers opened as 14 ½-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 48. They have been bet up as high as 15 ½ at some sportsbooks with the total sitting steady.

    The Rams are coming off their bye week and still had to sign two players on Monday who could play roles against Green Bay. They have already lost wide receiver Danny Amendola (elbow) and cornerback Bradley Fletcher (knee) for the season due to injuries, so they brought in WR Nick Miller and CB Brian Jackson to help fill in and add depth on the roster.

    St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford has regressed in his second year so far, completing less than 50 percent of his passes with three touchdown passes and one interception in four games. He is tied for the NFL lead in taking sacks with 18 for combined losses of 116 yards, and fumbles lost with four despite playing one less game than most players through Week 5.

    The same can’t be said for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, who leads all signal callers with a 122.9 passer rating. Rodgers has completed nearly 72 percent of his passes and remains on pace to break Drew Brees’ league record.

    He has also thrown 14 touchdown passes with only two interceptions for the defending NFL champs, who sit atop the Don Best Linemakers Poll.

    Green Bay is coming off a 25-14 victory at Atlanta on Sunday Night Football, rallying back from an early 14-0 deficit by scoring 25 unanswered points. Rodgers threw for 396 yards in that game with two touchdowns and no picks while running backs James Starks and Ryan Grant were limited to 58 yards on 19 carries.

    The Rams are ranked No. 26 in the Linemakers Poll and have dropped three of the last four meetings with the Packers both straight up and against the spread. They have also failed to cover any of their games this season. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of the past six games between the teams and is 7-1 in Green Bay’s last eight at home with the team going 7-1 ATS.

    The weather forecast for Lambeau is cloudy with showers possible and a high temperature of 62.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
10/14/2011 08:12 PM

Brees, Saints Take On Buccaneers In Tampa

Drew Brees is second in the National Football League with 1,769 passing yards.
Shades of 1976 at Tampa Bay?

Forgive those of us with long memories who recall the expansion Bucs of thirty-five years ago, during their inaugural campaign in the long-ago "Bicentennial Year" in which they actually competed in the AFC West. Although the division designation was rather meaningless that season as Tampa Bay played each AFC team once, plus fellow expansionist Seattle, in a 14-game schedule. The Bucs flip-flopped with the Seahawks the following year when Tampa Bay moved to the NFC.

In 1976, however, the Buccaneers lost all 14 of their games for coach John McKay, who had left a wildly successful college job at Southern Cal to take over Hugh Culverhouse’s new team. The Bucs absorbed some bad beatings along the way that year, including 42-17, 48-13, 34-0, 42-0, and 49-16 drubbings.

None of those, however, were as bad as the 48-3 pasting that Tampa Bay absorbed last Sunday at San Francisco, which equaled the worst loss in franchise history.

So it figures to be an angry Bucs team, if nothing else, that will tee it up at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday against New Orleans. The visiting Saints are a 4½-point favorite at most Las Vegas betting outlets, with the ‘total’ at a fairly solid 49½ for the battle off of Dale Mabry Highway. Kickoff is scheduled at 4:15 (ET) p.m. with FOX handling the coverage in some markets.

What happened last week at Candlestick Park, anyway?

Perhaps it was the short week after the previous Monday’s game against the Colts, coupled with the cross-country trip to the Bay Area. Whatever, Tampa Bay was awful last week, posting a season-low 272 yards and guilty of three turnovers, not to mention a few embarrassing unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in the late going, including one against coach Raheem Morris.

Prospects for a quick turnaround at home have been dulled just a bit by an injury list that could claim a couple of key Buc components. Leading rusher LeGarrette Blount (279 yards) was knocked out of last week’s game vs. the 49ers with a sore knee and is a doubtful participant for Sunday’s action. Earnest Graham, Kregg Lumpkin, and Allen Bradford would likely share carries in his absence.

Meanwhile, perhaps more damaging is the potential absence of DT Gerald McCoy, who was also KO’d at Candlestick with an ankle injury. With McCoy in tow, Tampa Bay had been defending the run rather effectively until last week, ranking a respectable 11th in NFL rush defense stats. But the floodgates opened with McCoy was sidelined last week, as San Francisco bulldozed for a whopping 213 yards on the ground.

Although the Saints are more renowned for their passing offense and QB Drew Brees, they have effectively balanced their attack with the run, which ranks in the upper half (14th) of league rushing stats. RBs Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Alabama rookie Mark Ingram have done an effective job complementing Brees in the early going.

As for Brees, he looks as good as ever, second in the NFL with 1,769 passing yards, and having thrown for better than 350 yards in each of his last three games. Brees can become the first passer in NFL history to throw for 350 yards or more in four straight games if he can do it again on Sunday vs. the Bucs. Although that task could be a bit daunting, considering how Tampa Bay has held Brees under 300 yards passing in the last five meetings (Bress averaging 240 yards through the air in those clashes).

Still, it is no surprise that Brees, Sproles, and the others are contributing to the NFL’s second-ranked offense at 469 ypg. New Orleans’ 31.4 ppg also ranks fifth in league scoring average.

The Saints are playing their third straight on the road, but they enter Raymond James Stadium full of confidence after winning their last four games to pull a game ahead of the Bucs and two up on the Falcons in the NFC South. New Orleans had to rally to beat Cam Newton and Carolina last week, but Brees was never better than when leading a late drive to beat the clock in Charlotte, with a 6-yard TD pass to Thomas with just 50 seconds to play proving the winning points in an exciting 30-27 win.

Recent trends between these two have been interesting, with the teams splitting the season series each of the past three years. Moreover, the road team has won each of the four meetings the past two seasons. Brees has been particularly effective at Raymond James, throwing three TD passes in each of the last two visits as the Saints won and covered by a combined 69-13 score their last two at Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Bucs have won as underdogs each of the past two years at the Superdome.

Note, however, that Tampa Bay has provided no pointspread value lately at home, standing a lowly 4-17-1 vs. the line its last 22 outings at Raymond James Stadium.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: