06/28/2013 04:59 PM
Friday, June 28, 2013
Milwaukee (Hellwag) at Pittsburgh (Cole) (-180) 7:05 ET
3% Milwaukee (Hellweg) (+170)
The Pirates are 8-0 (100%) following a scheduled day of rest this season. Pittsburgh is also 6-4 in the season series against Milwaukee reversing one of the greatest long term series trends in MLB history. That 60% win percentage is a microcosm of the Pirates 48-30 record which ties them with St. Louis for the best record in MLB. That success is more than reflected in this price as Pittsburgh returns from a 7-2 road trip following a 5 game West Coast swing in which they clouted 13 home runs and scored 39 runs. Tonight they send their top rookie, Cole, to the mound. In 3 starts, Cole has beaten Lincecum, Greinke and Weaver for a 3-0 start with a 3.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 8/1 KBB. With the best bullpen in baseball sporting a 164 bullpen index, this looks like a walk in the park. But this team has clearly overheated forcing a look to the value side with visiting Milwaukee. Hellweg, in place of the injured Figaro, makes his MLB debut following a record of 7-4 with 2.82 ERA in AAA Nashville. Sign us up for this value laden Big Dog.
San Diego (Volquez) at Miami (Nolasco) (-115) 7:10 ET
3% Miami (Nolasco) (-115)
The Padres must travel West to East for their first game on the East Coast on a 1-4 slide following a 33-21 run up. Volquez is not the stopper. For the YTD, Volquez has a 5.67 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and bloated 71/44 KBB. Volquez is off a 6-1 loss in LAD in which he allowed 5 runs including 7 walks in 5 2/3 IP. IN 8 road starts, Volquez has a 6.70 ERA. Now the Padres must face Nolasco who has a 2.87 ERA his last 7 starts and is pitching to get out of Miami before the July 31 trade deadline. Every dog has his day in MLB. Just such is the case with the Marlins whose positive runs of 11-6 and 5-1 are linked to the return of Stanton to their troubled offense.
Arizona (Delgado) at Atlanta (Teheran) (-160) 7:30 ET
3% Atlanta (Teheran) (-160)
It is a nice angle to consider playing Delgado in his return to face the team who traded him in the off season. Yet his performance has shown little to back that premise. In a pair of starts, Delgado has a 3.75 ERA including allowing 4 runs on 6 hits in 5 IP of a 4-2 Cincinnati loss in his last outing. With Arizona on a negative 7-10 slide, I far prefer the home standing Braves with the best home record in baseball at 25-11. Teheran is an emerging pitcher who in his last 9 starts has a 2.42 ERA. YTD numbers are 1.21 WHIP and 71/16 KBB have us eager to back his slants.
Philadelphia (Lannan) at LA Dodgers (Capuano) (-150) 10:10 ET
3% LAD (Capuano (-150)
Since ascending past the .500 mark at 31-30, the Phillies have retreated on a 7-12 slide. Lannan is not the answer. Tonight he makes his 3rd start/DL. In the first 2, Lannan has allowed 8 runs on 14 hits in 10 IP. In a pair of road outings, Lannan has an 8.22 ERA. Capuano also makes his 3rd start/DL but in a far dichotomous way Capuano has twirled 11 scoreless innings since his return. With LAD pushing toward the .500 mark on a 6-0 streak and being invigorated by the infectious enthusiasm of rookie Puig, let’s back the opposing momentum at this value price.
LA Angels (Williams) (-130) at Houston (Norris) 8:10 ET
3% Houston (Norris) (+120)
Houston is 6-1 in this series including 4 consecutive victories against LAA in which their reborn pitching staff has allowed just 8 runs. That may well continue tonight behind Norris who is 3-0 this year against LAA with a 0.43 ERA. The great season from this mound last year continues in 2013 for Norris. In 9 starts from this bump, Norris has a 2.67 ERA. The positive recent run of Houston at 8-5 matches the momentum of LAA who has won 9/14. Williams comes off a busted start in a 6-1 loss to the Pirates in which he allowed 5 runs in 8 hits on 6 IP. With a 4.09 ERA vs. Houston and 1-3 record, he is a Play Against candidate in the role of road favorite for an LAA team whose 16 road wins matches that of Houston at home. Value home dog.