cnotes Posts:26598 Followers:33
10/14/2011 07:41 PM

No. 2 Alabama is heavily favored at Ole Miss

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (6-0)
at OLE MISS REBELS (2-3)


Kickoff: Saturday, 6:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -25, Total: 44.5

Fresh off its second shutout of the year, No. 2 Alabama is not expected to have any trouble winning at Ole Miss, as the Tide are tabbed as 25-point favorites.

The Crimson Tide have yet to allow more than 14 points in any of their six wins this year. Alabama, which shut out Vanderbilt 34-0 last week, leads the nation in scoring defense (7.0 PPG) and rushing defense (39.8 YPG). Ole Miss has the seventh-fewest yards in the nation (274 YPG), while ranking 86th in total defense (408 YPG). Since 1992, the Tide are 17-2 SU, but just 10-9 ATS against the Rebels. However, this game is a supreme mismatch and ALABAMA will be able to cover the hefty spread this year.

There are several three-star FoxSheets trends favoring the Tide to cover, including these two:

Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (ALABAMA) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games. (27-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Any team (ALABAMA) - after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent.(33-9 since 1992.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Alabama RB Trent Richardson has five straight 100-yard rushing games and 12 TD this year (T-3rd in FBS). He has a great chance to match the school record for consecutive 100-yard games against a Rebels run defense allowing 193 YPG (95th in nation). Sophomore QB A.J. McCarron continues his rapid improvement in his first year as a starter. He torched Vanderbilt last week for 237 yards and 4 TD, completing 23-of-30 passes. He has not thrown an interception since Week 1, going 84-for-127 (66%) for 930 yards and 7 TD in his past five games.

Ole Miss achieved good offensive balance in last week’s 38-28 win over Fresno State with QB Randall Mackey (214 passing yards, 1 TD last week) and RB Jeff Scott (138 rushing yards, 2 TD). Scott has also been stellar in the return game, as he leads the nation with 20.1 yards per punt return. The Rebels will need yards however they can get them. In the past two years, Ole Miss has scored 13 total points against Alabama, gaining a total of 455 yards in the pair of losses. This season, the Tide are third in the nation in total defense (191 YPG) and fourth in passing defense (152 YPG). They’d be even better if they could put more pressure on the QB, as Alabama ranks 94th in the nation with a paltry 1.3 sacks per game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26598 Followers:33
10/14/2011 07:42 PM

No. 1 LSU visits Tennessee on Saturday


LSU TIGERS (6-0)
at TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (3-2)


Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -17, Total: 43.5

As if the task wasn’t difficult enough hosting the top team in the nation, Tennessee has to take on LSU without starting QB Tyler Bray on Saturday afternoon.

Bray is out six weeks with a broken thumb, which will allow Matt Simms to start under center. Simms didn’t have a great game against the Tigers last year (12-for-23, 121 yards; 1 rushing TD), but nearly led his team to the upset. LSU won 16-14, scoring on the final play after Tennessee was penalized for too many men on the field. Don’t expect a repeat performance in 2011, as none of the Tigers games have been close this year. Despite playing four ranked teams already, they have won all six contests by at least 13 points, with an average win margin of 26.0 PPG. And considering the Vols have only 35 total points and minus-29 rushing yards in two SEC losses (Florida and Georgia), this will prove to be a long afternoon for the Vols. The pick here is LSU to win and cover the lofty spread.

This four-star anti-Vols FoxSheets trend also likes LSU to win big.

TENNESSEE is 2-16 ATS (11.1%, -15.6 Units) in home games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. The average score was TENNESSEE 19.2, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 4*).

LSU has done many things right this year. QB Jarrett Lee has only thrown one interception in 118 pass attempts and the Tigers are tied for the fewest amount of giveaways in the land (three). The rushing offense has been solid (184 YPG, 38th in nation) with three ball carriers performing at a high level. Spencer Ware leads the team with 432 rushing yards, while Michael Ford (324 rush yards) has a team-high six touchdowns. Alfred Blue has also done his job with 218 yards (4.5 YPC) and four scores. In the passing game, junior WR Reuben Randle has 346 receiving yards and 3 TD in his past five games, including a career-high 127 in last week’s 41-11 trouncing of Florida. Tennessee has allowed at least 130 rushing yards in each of the past four games, creating just two turnovers during this span.

Senior RB Tauren Poole was a big reason the Vols almost won in Baton Rouge last year, rushing for 109 yards and a touchdown. But he has found little running room in two games versus SEC opponents this year, gaining a pathetic 25 yards on 16 carries (1.6 YPC) against Florida and Georgia. The best player on Tennesee’s offense on Saturday will be sophomore WR Da’Rick Rogers. He has caught at least five passes in all five games, and had his five-game TD streak snapped last week against Georgia. For the year, Rogers has 513 yards (103 YPG) and six touchdowns. Simms faces a daunting task trying perform well against LSU. The Tigers have allowed 5.2 yards per pass attempt, picking off eight passes and only allowing 5 TD through the air this year.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26598 Followers:33
10/14/2011 07:45 PM

Las Vegas Money Moves

October 14, 2011


Where’s all the movement this week? You’d think with all the extra cash bettors have in their pocket that we’d see more college football line movement than we have through Friday morning this week, but it’s been relatively quiet. We’re not seeing the giant moves or roller coaster movement on numbers on games like we have for the first six weeks.

Most of what drives that movement is play from the sharp groups and they’re licking their wounds from last week. Whenever the sports books lose money, it’s a pretty safe bet that the sharps did too.

The small money is still pouring in at the same rate. They’ve done very well in college football with their favorite teams. Heck, you could blindly play the current Top-5 teams every week and be 22-4-1 (85%) against the spread. Who needs to handicap when you can just fire off an Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Stanford round-robin every week, regardless of what the number is.

If you look at this week’s rotation, games 163 through 174 is a regular murderers row for the sports books with Alabama (-27), Oklahoma (-35), Boise State (-32) and Stanford (-21). It’s a sight to see all lit up on the sports book boards -- all monster numbers -- right next to each other. The built in 2-to-3 points above their rating is also already factored in an attempt to attract action on the dog side.

You know it’s going bad when the sharps know the number is off by three points, but won’t lay money down on the underdog side just because of how consistent the big popular teams are right now.

In the Crimson Tide's case, the proper number should be about -23 and the Sooners should be closer to -31, but in each case public money has flooded each of those sides making the quick moves on the favorites based on overall small money adding up.

Eventually, the inflated numbers have to catch to catch up with the public, but I’m definitely not willing to put any more money on it anytime

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26598 Followers:33
10/14/2011 07:48 PM

Big 10 Report - Week 7

October 14, 2011

Michigan State (-2.5) vs. Michigan - 12:00 PM EST, ESPN

MSU: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS - Last week: BYE
MICH: 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS - Last week: at Northwestern, W 42-24

Michigan State has won - and covered - three straight against its in-state rival for the first time since 1965-67. Last year was a very similar situation as both teams were undefeated. Michigan State got a lop-sided 34-17 victory, but the score could've been a lot closer as Michigan QB Robinson threw three interceptions, two of which on the goal-line as the Wolverines were about to put points on the board.

Michigan responded well to adversity after falling behind 24-14 at Northwestern last week and outscored the Wildcats 28-0 in the 2nd half to get a big victory on the road. Denard Robinson was a one-man wrecking crew with 450 yards (337 passing, 113 rushing) and four touchdowns (2 rush, 2 pass). He has this offense averaging 458 yards per game (26th nationally) and 38 points per game (21st) but they'll face their stiffest challenge yet against this MSU defense.

MSU has the top ranked defense in all of college football and the 3rd best scoring defense, as the Spartans are allowing just 173 yards per game and 10.2 points per game. In their last game against Ohio State, the Spartans surrendered just 178 total yards (35 rush yards on 39 attempts) and 7 points.

This is right about the time of the year when Michigan has imploded after a fast start. In 2009 the Wolverines started 4-0 before a 1-7 finish and in 2010 they started 5-0 before a 2-6 finish. This year they are 6-0 and will try and avoid the same fate as years past.

Something to consider: Michigan State 8-17-1 ATS in its last 26 Big Ten home games. The Spartans have only been favored twice in home games against Michigan over the past 30 years (1-1 ATS & SU).

Illinois (-4) vs. Ohio State - 3:30 PM EST, ABC regional

ILL: 6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS - Last week: at Indiana, W 41-20
OSU: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS - Last week: at Nebraska, L 27-34

Illinois escaped its first road trip of the season unscathed with a big win over Indiana last week. The Illini are back home for the sixth time in seven games this season and this game should prove whether they belong in the upper-echelon of the Big Ten. Ohio State has dropped two straight conference games and is now desperate for a win especially considering that #4 Wisconsin looming next on the schedule. Illinois hasn't been favored against Ohio State since 2001 until now.

OSU appeared to be on its way to a breakout win over Nebraska last week with a 27-6 lead midway through the 3rd quarter. But the Buckeyes had a devastating collapse in the final 1.5 quarters and left Lincoln demoralized with a 27-34 loss. The Buckeyes defense is strong enough to keep them in games (22nd in total yards allowed and 18th in points allowed). But this offense continues to be a work in progress as it ranks 105th in total yards and 86th in points per game.

Sophomore QB Scheelhaase has developed a nice rapport with WR Jenkins this season. Jenkins has been on the receiving end of 66% of Scheelhaase's yards and 7 of 10 touchdown passes this season. However, it's the Illini's stop-unit that has lifted this team to a 6-0 mark. This unit ranks 15th in yards allowed and 17th in points allowed.

Something to consider: The Illini have dropped 11 of the last 14 meetings with the Buckeyes, but Ohio State is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Illinois and 1-4 ATS the last five trips to Champaign.

Iowa (-6.5) vs. Northwestern - 7:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

IOWA: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS - Last week: at Penn State, L 3-13
NW: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan, L 24-42

This is a huge game for both teams as each is off of a loss and neither can afford another conference setback. Northwestern has had Iowa's number in recent years, winning three straight and five of six overall - including a 3-0 mark in Iowa City. Interestingly enough, the Wildcats were underdogs in all five wins and favored in the only loss.

Quarterback James Vandenberg struggled mightily for the first time this season against Penn State last week. He completed just 17-of-34 passes for 169 yards and led his team to just 3 points (Iowa failed to score a touchdown for the first time in 48 games). Vandenberg threw two interceptions and was sacked five times, and received little help from his receiving corps.

QB Persa makes a difference on this Northwestern offense (72% with 4 touchdowns and an interception since returning from injury two weeks ago), but the Wildcats defense has given up big leads in each of the past two games. This stop unit ranks 106th against the pass, 100th in total defense, and has allowed 80 points combined to its last two opponents.

Something to consider: Northwestern is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference games but 12-2 ATS its last 14 as a road underdog. Iowa is 30-12-1 ATS following a loss.

Wisconsin (-40) vs. Indiana - 12:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

WISC: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS - Last week: BYE
IND: 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Illinois, L 20-41

The Badgers destroyed the Hoosiers 83-20 last season (most points scored by UW since 1915) and while it will be difficult to score 83 again, this Badgers offense could come close. Wisconsin is averaging 523 yards (9th nationally) and 48.4 points (3rd) offensively. QB Wilson is the front-runner for the Heisman trophy and RB Ball is on pace to shatter the Big Ten record for touchdowns as he already has 14 scores through just five games. However, it's Wisconsin's defense that has been the surprise this season. The Badgers are only allowing 264 yards per game (7th) and 10.2 points per game (4th).

The Hoosiers' only win this season came against FCS South Carolina State. They've dropped their first two Big Ten games at home against Penn State and Illinois and now travel to hostile Madison to face the juggernaut that is the Wisconsin Badgers. Indiana ranks near the bottom of every major offensive and defensive category - 87th in total offense and 97th in total defense.

All signs point to another Wisconsin blowout in this one; however, there are a few things to be weary about with this 40-point spread (the largest point spread for any Big Ten conference game since 1997). Wisconsin is off of a bye after a huge win against Nebraska and it has a revenge game at Michigan State next week. The Badgers could be flat and play sloppy for a few quarters. Or they could call off the dogs once they get a big lead to keep key players healthy for next week.

Something to consider: Since 2002, there have been only 15 occasions when a Big Ten team has been favored by 25+ points against another Big Ten team. Those favored are 10-5 ATS.

Penn State (-12) vs. Purdue - 12:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

PSU: 5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Iowa, W 13-3
PU: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Minnesota, W 45-17

These two last met in 2008, but Penn State has defeated Purdue four straight times by an average 13 points per game. The Nittany Lions have held the Boilermakers without an offensive touchdown in 11 straight quarters.

Penn State's defense stepped up nicely against last week shutting down Iowa's offense to the tune of 253 yards and 3 points (forced three turnovers). The Nittany Lions now boast the nation's 4th best total defense and 5th best scoring defense. This stop-unit will need to continue to step-up because PSU's offense is averaging just 17.6 points per game its last five games.

Purdue had a momentum building 45-17 victory over lowly Minnesota last week. Quarterbacks TerBush and Marve combined to complete 18-of-27 passes for 155 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and the Boilers had three rushing touchdowns. This team is still a work in progress and will have a much more difficult time against this Penn State defense that has allowed two touchdowns in its past four games.

Something to consider: Purdue is 3-16 in road games over the past 3+ seasons (lost its only other road game this season at Rice 22-24).

Nebraska - BYE

NEB: 5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Ohio State, W 34-27

Nebraska heads into its off week with a sigh of relief after the comeback win over Ohio State. The Huskers scored 28 unanswered points to erase a 21-point deficit and notch their first conference win as a member of the Big Ten. The porous defense continues as the Blackshirts are allowing 27.2 points per game. Still, this is a dangerous offense and is a team to watch heading into the 2nd half of the season. Next up is a tune-up game at Minnesota before a home meeting with Michigan State.

Minnesota - BYE

MINN: 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS - Last week: at Purdue, L 17-45

Things are really bad for Jerry Kill's squad. The Gophers have dropped back-to-back Big Ten games by a combined score of 103-17. The bye week comes at a perfect time for Minnesota as the 2nd half schedule is ridiculously difficult (Nebraska, Iowa, @MSU, Wisconsin, @Northwestern, and Illinois). Barring a miraculous turnaround, Minnesota will be double-digit underdogs the rest of the way.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26598 Followers:33
10/14/2011 07:52 PM

Arizona St. at Oregon

October 14, 2011


Gamblers have to love the fact that one of the week’s premier games falls in the late-night slot! I’m talking about Arizona State at Oregon in a Pac-12 showdown.

As of Friday afternoon, most books were listing Oregon (4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) as a 14 1/2-point favorite with the total in the 66-67 range. Arizona St. is plus-525 on the money line at the Las Vegas Hilton (risk $100 to win $525).

Chip Kelly’s team has won four in a row since a Week 1 loss to LSU at Cowboys Stadium, going 3-1 ATS in the process. Oregon is coming off a 43-15 win over California as a 23 ½-point home favorite.

LaMichael James rushed 30 times for 239 yards and one touchdown, but he was lost indefinitely when he suffered a dislocated elbow in the second half. Darron Thomas threw three touchdown passes and RB De’Anthony Thomas hauled in six receptions for 114 yards and a pair of TDs.

Darron Thomas has been outstanding all year, throwing 15 TD passes compared to only two interceptions. De’Anthony Thomas has rushed for 191 yards and a pair of TDs on 25 carries and he also has a team-high 17 catches for 286 yards and four TDs.

Arizona St. (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) owns a 5-2-1 spread record as a double-digit underdog on Dennis Erickson’s watch. ASU has won three straight games since suffering its lone loss, a 17-14 defeat at Illinois in Week 3.

Erickson’s team is coming off a 35-14 win at Utah as a 3 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ QB Brock Osweiler connected on 25-of-41 attempts for 325 passing yards and three TDs without an interception. WR Mike Willie had seven receptions for 98 yards and two scores.

For the season, Osweiler has a 13/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite targets are Gerell Robinson and Aaron Pflugrad, both of whom have 26 receptions apiece for seven combined TDs.

Oregon has thrived as a home favorite under Kelly, posting a 10-3-1 spread record. The Ducks are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at Autzen Stadium this year. As a road ‘dog under Erickson, ASU is 7-8-1 versus the number.

Oregon has won six in a row over ASU, compiling a 5-1 spread record. When these long-time rivals squared off in Tempe last season, Oregon won 42-31 as an 11 ½-point favorite.

However, Arizona St. outplayed the Ducks, out-gaining them 597-386 in the yardage department. But ASU couldn’t overcome seven turnovers, including a pick-six and a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

The ‘over’ is 5-1 overall for ASU, 1-1 in its two road games. The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Oregon, but the ‘under’ has cashed at a 2-1 clip in its home outings. The ‘over’ has hit in three straight head-to-head meetings between these schools.

ESPN will have the telecast at 10:15 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Another late-night tilt will feature Utah St. at Fresno St. as a three-point road favorite. Aggies’ freshman QB Chuckie Keeton is enjoying a banner campaign with a 9/0 TD-INT ratio. Keeton can also beat teams with his legs, rushing for 196 yards and three TDs. Utah St. is 2-0 ATS on the road this season. These schools have combined for a 9-2 record to the ‘over’ and this total is 59.

--Northwestern owns an 8-2 spread record in its last 10 games as a road underdog. The Wildcats are 6 ½-point ‘dogs Saturday at Iowa.

--Florida owns an 11-3 spread record in its last 14 games as a road favorite. The Gators are two-point ‘chalk’ Saturday at Auburn. They haven’t won at Auburn since 1999. AU is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS as a home ‘dog during Gene Chizik’s tenure.

--Stanford has covered the number in six consecutive double-digit ‘chalk’ roles. The Cardinal is laying 21 at Washington St. this week.

--A pair of unbeaten teams are road ‘dogs in Week 7. Michigan is catching points at Michigan St. and Kansas St. is doing the same at Texas Tech.

--Boise St. has an 8-4 spread record in its last 12 games when laying 30-plus points. The Broncos are favored by 32 ½ at Colorado St.

--Mississippi St. is 3-5 ATS as a home ‘dog under Dan Mullen. The Bulldogs are catching three Saturday vs. South Carolina. The Gamecocks are 6-3-1 ATS as road favorites with Steve Spurrier as their head coach.

--Ole Miss has suspended four players for Saturday’s home game vs. Alabama. RB Brandon Bolden and a pair of starting offensive linemen are out along with a back-up WR. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS as home ‘dogs under Houston Nutt.

--With Air Force’s 41-27 home loss to San Diego St. on Thursday, it fell to an abysmal 1-5 ATS this year.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26598 Followers:33
10/14/2011 08:27 PM

Hawaii at San Jose State: What bettors need to know

Hawaii Warriors at San Jose State Spartans (+6, 55.5)

Can’t wait until Saturday’s full slate of college football action? The WAC comes to your rescue Friday night, when Hawaii (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) heads to the mainland to face San Jose State (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS).

Line moves

The Warriors opened as touchdown favorites but have been bet down to -6. The total opened at 55 and has climbed half a point.

State of emergency

With an ankle injury to starting running back Brandon Rutley, San Jose State head coach Mike MacIntyre may have to hand his rushing attack over to freshman Tyler Ervin again Friday night.

Rutley, who is averaging 104 yards on the ground per game, was limited in practice this week after hurting himself against Colorado State two weeks ago. He sat out last weekend’s loss to BYU, in which Ervin and sophomore RB Jason Simpson combined for just 70 yards on 26 carries.

MacIntyre isn’t overly concerned with the production of the running game but rather the pass protection from his running backs. Ervin is only 5-foot-10 and 170 pounds in his first year of FBS action. Against the Cougars, the Spartans allowed only one sack for a loss of nine yards.

"If he goes the wrong way one time, the quarterback gets hit in the back," MacIntyre told the San Jose Mercury News. "He's a very bright young man, and he's picking it up pretty quick."

Despite those kind words, SJSU's head coach has his fingers crossed that Rutley can return to action this week.

Hawaiian punch

The Warriors are coming off the bye week following their first road win of the season – and 44-26 beating of Louisiana Tech two weeks ago.

Hawaii used the time off to fine tune its offense, which finally got up to speed in its last two wins. The Warriors have scored 100 points on 1,131 total yards in victories over UC Davis and LTU – most of those coming from the big arm of quarterback Bryant Moniz.

The senior is 10th in the country is passing per game, averaging 315.6 yards an outing. He’s totaled 11 touchdowns and 834 yards through the air in the past two games, and hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 2’s loss to Washington. Moniz also put his name in the record books with seven first-half TD passes versus UC Davis, tying the NCAA record.

Last season, Moniz lit up San Jose State for 560 passing yards and three touchdowns, but was picked off twice. The Warriors thumped the Spartans 41-7 as 30-point favorites.

Coaching connection

Friday night is homecoming for the San Jose State but also for coach McMackin and Hawaii special teams coach Dick Tomey.

McMackin was the Spartans’ secondary coach from 1979-83 and Tomey served as SJSU head coach from 2005-09, and is credited for the resurgence of the football program.

"There's a lot of players I'm very familiar with, but a lot of those players have really improved a ton," Tomey told reporters. "They're older (and) they're more mature; they were sophomores when I was there and now they're seniors. I think it just suffice to say, I have incredible respect for what they've done the last two years...and I have incredible respect for what they're doing on the field now.”

Spartan tough

While Hawaii holds a slight edge, 17-16-1, in the all-time series with San Jose State, the Warriors have owned the Spartans in recent years.

They’ve won nine of the past 10 meetings and four straight in San Jose, but have had to battle for those victories inside Spartan Stadium. The last five meetings at SJSU have been decided by a touchdown or less, including two overtime affairs in the two most recent collisions at Spartans Stadium.

"We've always won over there but they have been just battles," McMackin told the media.

Hawaii has covered in their last two meetings and is 4-2 ATS in the past six. The teams are 5-5 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head games, going back to 2001.

Trends

- Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
- Spartans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.
- Over is 6-2 in Warriors last eight games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Spartans last five home games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26598 Followers:33
10/14/2011 08:29 PM

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 7 line moves

Lines are on the move in Week 7 of the college football season. Jay Rood, sportsbook manager for the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, took some time to talk about where the action is for this Saturday’s games:

South Carolina Gamecocks at Mississippi State Bulldogs – Open: +5.5, Move: +3

Last week, bettors jumped on the Gamecocks when Steve Spurrier switched to backup QB Connor Shaw. Now, it seems the wiseguy money is going against South Carolina, with sharp bets coming in on the Bulldogs. There is a still a ton of public money tied to the 'Cocks, especially parlays. Rood says this is one of the rare times he’ll be cheering for the sharps.

“With this game having an early 1 p.m. kickoff, we’ll be rooting for the wiseguys to knock out a lot of that public parlay action,” he says.

Louisville Cardinals at Cincinnati Bearcats – Open: -14, Move: -17, Move: -15

Cardinals QB Will Stein is probable to return from a shoulder injury after missing last week, which is half the reason why this line has moved as much as it has in such a short time. Rood expects the spread to go back up, but not because of Stein’s status.

“Cincinnati has been a favorite choice of sharp bettors this season,” Rood says. “This team has some teeth and if you get down, Cincy is going to roll you. They have no trouble with running up the score.”

Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils – Open: 54, Move 57.5

The total for this ACC matchup is on the rise with nothing but over money coming in. Rood believes Duke is better than advertised and can put up some points, but also thinks FSU will be lethargic on the defensive end with this being its third straight road game.

“Florida State has been struggling ever since that Oklahoma game,” he says. “They got the wind knocked out of them and are gasping for breath.”

LSU Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers – Open: +14, Move: +18

With the top teams in the country covering like cash machines, bettors are piling on the Tigers against a lesser opponent. Rood says this line move has everything to do with that current trend.

“The powerhouse teams have been crushing teams,” he says. “Anything below -17 is the green light for every bettor to make a play on (LSU).”

BYU Cougars at Oregon State Beavers – Open: +1.5, Move: -3.5

The Cougars' QB controversy and the resurgence of the Beavers has flipped this spread on its ear. Add to that a tough setting for BYU in Reser Stadium.

“We took a couple early bets on BYU, but it’s been Oregon State money ever since,” says Rood. “Just straight limit plays all week.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26598 Followers:33
10/14/2011 08:32 PM

Ohio State at Illinois: What bettors need to know

Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini (-3.5, 45)

THE STORY: Ohio State’s two biggest weapons will return to the backfield when it visits No. 15 Illinois Saturday. Senior RB Dan Herron returns from a six-game suspension and dynamic freshman QB Braxton Miller, who left last weekend’s 34-27 loss to Nebraska with an ankle injury, is expected to face a frenzied Fighting Illini defense. Illinois ranks 15th in the nation in yards allowed and leads the Big Ten in sacks. The Illini can tie the 1951 squad for the program’s best start if they can improve to 7-0 and snap an eight-game home losing streak to OSU.

TV: ABC

WEATHER: The forecast in Champaign is calling for cloudy skies and winds, blowing west from sideline to sideline, at speeds of up to 13 mph. Temperatures will be in the low 60s.

LINE MOVES: The Illini opened as 4-point home favorites and have been bet down half a point. The total opened at 43 points and has climbed to 44.5.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (3-3, 0-2 Big Ten, 3-3 ATS): The plug was pulled on the Buckeyes' offense when Miller went down with OSU leading Nebraska 27-20 in the third quarter, leaving former starter Joe Bauserman to take snaps. He completed just 1 of 10 passes and was picked off while Nebraska scored 28 unanswered points to steal the victory. The Buckeyes should get a boost from the return of Herron, who rushed for 1,155 yards and 16 touchdowns last season. Starting offensive lineman Marcus Hall also returns after serving a one-game suspension last weekend.

ABOUT ILLINOIS (6-0, 2-0 Big Ten, 3-3 ATS): The Fighting Illini have a Heisman sleeper in dual-threat QB Nathan Scheelhaase. The sophomore is averaging over 264 yards of total offense, giving an already-dangerous running game extra pop. Illinois is 14th in rushing in the country, using a loaded backfield to march for 226 yards an outing. Ohio State must also keep a close eye on WR A.J. Jenkins, who is having a breakout season. The senior is fourth in the nation in receiving yards (815) and has caught seven touchdown passes – four of those scores coming on plays of 50 or more yards.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. This is the 94th meeting between Ohio State and Illinois. The Buckeyes lead the all-time series 62-30-4, including a 33-12 edge in Champaign. They’ve outscored Illinois 227-92 in the past eight games at Memorial Stadium.

2. In the last two seasons, OSU is 20-3 in games in which Herron has scored a rushing touchdown. The Buckeyes are 18-1 in games in which Herron has rushed for at least 55 yards.

3. Illinois has forced a turnover in 21 straight games, going back to Nov. 14, 2009. The Illini recovered a fumble and recorded an interception in last week’s 41-20 win over Indiana.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Illinois.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Illinois.

PREDICTION: Illinois 24, Ohio State 17 – Illinois takes the Illibuck Trophy and stakes its claim as a true contender for the Big Ten Leaders Division crown with a win Saturday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26598 Followers:33
10/14/2011 08:34 PM

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 7

Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions (-11.5, 39.5)

Why Purdue will cover: The Boilermakers got on a roll last week and should be confident. An expected low-scoring game favors the dog. PSU is 1-5 ATS.

Why Penn State will cover: The Lions’ defense is among the nation’s best, fifth in points allowed (10.5). Purdue has played one respectable team, Notre Dame, and got blown out 38-10.

Points: The under has hit in all six of PSU’s games, but that’s easily the lowest number it’s seen.

Indiana Hoosiers at Wisconsin Badgers (-39.5, 60.5)

Why Indiana will cover: That’s a big spread for a conference game, and IU is 3-3 ATS.

Why Wisconsin will cover: UW is firing on all cylinders, ranking No. 3 in scoring (48.4) and No. 4 in scoring defense (10.2). The Badgers’ run game has destroyed everyone, and IU ranks 119th against the run. UW is 4-0-1 ATS.

Points: The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. Last year, UW scored 83 in last year’s meeting with the Hoosiers.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+5, 48)

Why South Carolina will cover: The Gamecocks’ D ranks No. 8 against the pass. MSU is a dismal 1-5 ATS. The Bulldogs’ QB situation isn’t good right now, which won’t help if the Gamecocks get an early lead.

Why Mississippi State will cover: MSU prefers to run the ball (27th) and that is an area of some concern for USC (60th).

Points: The under has hit in MSU’s in nine of the team’s last 11 SEC games.

Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (-1.5, 49)

Why Michigan will cover: The Wolverines at 5-1 ATS because nobody can slow down QB Denard Robinson, who’s already rushed for 720 yards and thrown for 1,130 more.

Why Michigan State will cover: The Spartans’ defense has been tough, ranking No. 3 in points allowed, No. 3 in run yards and No. 2 in pass yards.

Points: The over is 6-2 in Michigan’s last eight in the Big Ten, but the under is 4-1 for MSU so far.

Baylor Bears at Texas A&M Aggies (-9.5, 75)

Why Baylor will cover: Baylor’s offense is a two-dimensional juggernaut, averaging 324 ypg passing and 239 more rushing. Texas A&M is the nation’s worst team against the pass.

Why Texas A&M will cover: Texas A&M has butted heads with Oklahoma State and Arkansas, losing both by a combined five points. Nothing will surprise the Aggies, especially at home.

Points: That’s a boatload of points. Then again, the teams combine to average 85 ppg, and the over is 4-0 for Baylor and 3-2 for Texas A&M.

LSU Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers (+15.5, 43.5)

Why LSU will cover: Unless teams have already faced Alabama, they’re not ready for the physicality that LSU will bring. Tennessee’s offense is unbalanced (11th in passing, 114th in rushing), allowing the Tigers to focus on the pass.

Why Tennessee will cover: The Vols are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 and that’s a decent spread for a home game. Their defense has no particular weakness.

Points: LSU opponents are finding it difficult to score, and UT’s last two have been under.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini (-3.5, 43)

Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes showed against Nebraska that when freshman QB Braxton Miller is under center, the team can play with anyone. Dan Herron, standout RB, returns from suspension.

Why Illinois will cover: The Illini run the ball (14th) and stop the run (ninth) for success. OSU tries to do both, but isn’t doing so with the same success.

Points: The under is 7-1 in OSU’s last eight is a dog.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns (+7.5, 64.5)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: The Cowboys’ offense has been unstoppable, averaging 51.4 ppg (first) with 431 yards passing (second). They’re 5-0 ATS in their last five.

Why Texas will cover: OSU’s defense isn’t great and the Longhorns have something to prove after last week’s Red River Rivalry debacle.

Points: The over has hit in Texas’ last three, and OSU puts up points better than anyone.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers (+7, 55.5)

Why Georgia Tech will cover: Last week was the first the Jackets didn’t cover (and the first the over didn’t hit). They still average 360 yards rushing per game. Virginia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 in the ACC.

Why Virginia will cover: The Cavs are decent on defense, including 35th against the run. In fact, the team ranks in the upper half in every major statistic on both sides of the ball except, oddly, points scored (69th).

Points: Tech will score, Virginia can score.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi Rebels (+25.5, 44)

Why Alabama will cover: The Tide hasn’t been in a close game yet, 5-1 ATS. They’re 4-0 ATS with spreads under 29 points.

Why Mississippi will cover: SEC teams don’t typically lose by that much at home.

Points: It’s a mystery as to how Ole Miss will score, and Alabama may struggle to hit that mark alone.

Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams (+32, 53.5)

Why Boise State will cover: BSU has toyed with the competition, including a 33-point average margin of victory in three road games. CSU is just 1-4 ATS.

Why Colorado State will cover: The Rams are solid against the pass (12th), giving them a chance to keep the Broncos at bay long enough to hold onto the spread.

Points: Despite having the No. 13 offense, BSU games are 2-3 on the over.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+7, 49)

Why Virginia Tech will cover: The Hokies have one of the nation’s top defenses, and they won’t take Wake lightly, as Florida State seemingly did last week.

Why Wake Forest will cover: The Deacons opened some eyes as 10-point dogs to FSU and winning SU. Wake is 4-0 ATS in its last four, while Virginia Tech is 0-5 ATS in its last five.

Points: The over is 10-3 in Wake’s last 13 at home, and is 4-1 overall this season. The under, however, is 4-2 for the Hokies.

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3, 59.5)

Why Kansas State will cover: For the fourth straight week, K-State is a dog. The Wildcats won the last three SU. The Wildcats rank 26th in rushing (209 ypg), while Texas Tech’s run D is 115th. It’s the first game for Texas Tech without top running back Eric Stephens, on pace for 1,000 yards, injured last week and out for the season.

Why Texas Tech will cover: As usual, Texas Tech’s air attack is tough to defend (sixth in pass yards, eighth in scoring), but the defense isn’t terrible, especially against the pass (28th).

Points: The over is 4-1 for Raiders games, and K-State’s offensive strength plays into TT’s weakness.

Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins (+8.5, 54)

Why Clemson will cover: The Tigers have covered in every game against BCS competition, with a passing offense (22nd) and defense (27th) that controls the pace.

Why Maryland will cover: Clemson QB Tajh Boyd will likely play through a hip injury, offering a glimmer of hope if he’s somewhat hobbled. If Maryland can get a quick lead, its defense has been decent against the pass.

Points: The under is 9-1 in Clemson’s last 10 in the ACC and is 6-2 in Maryland’s last eight as a home underdog and last three overall.

Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars (+21, 63.5)

Why Stanford will cover: Though QB Andrew Luck gets the headlines, the Cardinal defense has been huge - No. 2 against the run (62 ypg) and No. 6 in points allowed (10.6). It’s a big reason why Stanford is 5-0 ATS.

Why Washington State will cover: WSU can chuck it, averaging 350 yards through the air (seventh). Stanford’s defense is just 85th against the pass, offering hope that the Cougars can put up some serious points.

Points: Scoring will not be an issue for Stanford, and if WSU can finish in the red zone, we could be in line for a shootout.

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks (+34, 72)

Why Oklahoma will cover: OU is 4-1 ATS, ranks 10th in scoring and 12th in points allowed, and Kansas’ defense is the absolute worst in the nation statistically (49.4 ppg allowed).

Why Kansas will cover: KU can’t stop anyone but it can score, averaging 240 through the air and 219 on the ground. That’s a big spread against such a potentially potent offense.

Points: No way KU slows OU, but can the Jayhawks hold up their end of the bargain?

Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon Ducks (-16, 66)

Why Arizona State will cover: ASU can throw the ball and Oregon’s defense hasn’t been stellar against it. Statistically, ASU’s defense is better than Oregon’s. Oregon is also dealing with the loss to star RB LaMichael James.

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks are slightly under the radar compared to last year, but the offense is still No. 2 in scoring (50.2 ppg).

Points: The over is 5-1 in ASU games and 3-2 for Oregon. Both teams can tilt the scoreboard.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26598 Followers:33
10/14/2011 08:38 PM

Top 5 NCAAF Trends

MICH
MCHST Over is 8-0-1 in MICH last 9 games following a bye week.

IND
WISC WISC are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

CENFL
SMU Under is 8-0 in CENFL last 8 games overall.

WKEN
FLATL Under is 8-0 in FLATL last 8 home games.

ALAB
MISS MISS are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: