dietz Posts:250 Followers:1
On 06/05/2013 02:10 PM in General

Belmont Stakes.....

Well I am trying this again, had almost every horse written up and then I clicked out of the browser and lost everything..... 3 hours of write up out the window..........

Belmont Stakes goes off in a few days. The TV media is trying to set this up as a grudge match between ORB and OXBOW, they have no choice but to ham this up because there is no Triple Crown chance. OXBOW had his race on a track set up for him. Belmont is no Pimlico. Belmont is large and sweeping turns, Pimlico is tight. You can fit 2 entire Pimlico's inside Belmont (stands including).

I am not really worried about post position either as this track is large and wide enough for jockeys to position their horse. Unless a horse goes 5-7 wide around the entire track the post position no matter. The stretch run will set up for the closers and we have a few in here.

Pay out wise this should set up to be good money for gamblers. There are 14 horses with no heavy favorite. I think the favorite will be 5-2 with next horse being 4-1.



ORB
- I chose this horse to win the Preakness and I believe with a little more room and distance he would have had a shot. That race just did not set up well for ORB and it showed in his 4th place finish. The Belmont Stakes is another race/track entirely. This horse needs distance and time to get rolling. This is also his home track, place of training so he is very comfortable here. He has the stamina and rating ability to win it all.

REVOLUTIONARY - I had this horse in the Derby and if it were not for the wet track I think he had a chance. Key to this horse is his closing speed and stamina. He is made to go mile and half and do it well. He gets back his jockey in Costellano who rode him to two victories prior to the Derby with both being very impressive. He is well rested because he did not run in the Preakness. He will come running. If you have seen the movie Seabiscuit where he runs by the horses in the final scene with ease.........this is the horse that will re-enact that scene. Monster closer.

[B]OXBOW
- Had the race of a career last race. Perfect track, perfect trip. His best buyer figure was a 95 prior to the Preakness, he ran a 106 for the Preakness and ran away with the race. I do not see that happening here. The distance will get to this horse and the other jockeys will not let him run unchallenged again. There is also the chance of a bounce. He ran 11 points over his best race ever.
I have a theory also about this horse that I wll state later on in the write up. He has also never ran on this track.

OVERANALYZE - Another Pletcher entry in the race. Hard to get a handle on this horse, but it does like to run. He does have a race over this track that he has won in the Futurity Stakes. He has the closing pedigree set up for this race and has yet to break 100 on the buyer figure. Could this be the race for that? Look at the history of this horse going from his first race to most recent....win, 8th, win, 3rd, win, 11th, win, 11th (Derby). What do you think would be next? You also get Pletcher/Velasquez combo.

PALICE MALICE
- Finished 12 behind OVERANALYZE in the derby. Is another Pletcher entry in the race. Hard to tell what this horse will do. He has a race over the track and solid 2nd in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. He is also well rested after not running the Preakness. He has the pedigree to run (out of Curlin) and close. He put blinkers on in the Derby for the first time and just took off running. They are off this time around and he will be rated for sure. I do not see a buyer figure though over 93 which will make it tough to take on this group of horses.

VYJACK - This is probably the least known horse in the entire field in terms of what to expect. He came in third in the Wood Memorial with a good close, but then got pulled up in the Derby and was found to have a lung infection. This horse has the pedigree and very good late kick. He took the Preakness off to heal so he comes in well rested. The question is, who is going to show up? Is he healthy enough yet, and will he have the stamina since he pretty much galloped the Derby and took the Preakness off. Tough horse to figure out.

UNLIMITED BUDGET - Yet another Pletcher horse to enter the Derby. Pletcher is trying to pull off what he did with Rags to Riches, but this horse is no Rags to Riches. She has the size to bump and run with the boys and may hang in there for a while, but in the end the 1.5 miles will be too much for her. She will have lower odds than you may think because the public is going bet on the female horse with the female jockey who is from NJ. Sentimental yes, smart $$, no!

FRAC DADDY - Late entry into the race by Ken McPeek. Won the Gotham Stakes and came in 2nd in the Arkansas Derby at 34-1. Looks as if he did not like the slop in the Derby and ran poorly. McPeek picks up Garcia as his jockey over Victor LeBron in the Derby. Big step up and Garcia knows Belmont and McPeek tends to bring in some long shots. He must see something to be a late entry in the race.

GOLDEN SOUL - This is horse that I can count out off the bat. I truly believe the wet track helped this horse in the Derby. In prior races he was beaten easliy by Revolutionary, Mylute, Palice Malice, OXbow. If it rains on Saturday, you may change your/my thoughts, but if the weather is dry, this horse will not be a factor.

WILL TAKE CHARGE - Here we go with the horse I felt had a hell of a chance in the Derby. He got cut off in the stretch by a tiring Verezano and could not get rolling again. The Preakness was not his track, just like ORB, this horse need to get rolling and Belmont just might be the track for him. He is almost 18 hands and he needs to stride out. I have put my faith in this horse twice to atleast come in the money and have gotten beat. Here is my thought.......... D Wayne Lukas keeps him in the race knowing this race is set up for his style of running. He also keeps in OXBOW, do you think he sends out OXBOW again to set up speed for a horse like WILL TAKE CHARGE. This will be an over looked horse because of OXBOW and he has not done much in the past two races.

FREEDOM CHILD - gonig to be an over bet horse here. He won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont, but much like Golden Soul he won the race in the slop with his best buyer figure ever, 99. Best one prior to that is was an 83. Track is dry I do not see this horse holding up with the others. Vyjack beat him, Normandy Invasion beat him on dry tracks with ease. For some reason the public in on this horse. I am not.

INCOGNITO - not a stakes win or even in the money at stakes race. took more races than i can count for him to break his maiden and now wants to step up to Grade 1 Belmont stakes and go 1.5 miles. If there was a last place wager, this would be it.

MIDNIGHT TABOO - lightly raced colt who enters the race by Todd Pletcher. I think the only reason he even entered is to be a rabbit as he is a front running horse. Could he be setting it up to make sure ORB gets his pace and burns out OXBOW and others?

GIANT FINISH - Another front runner who I just do not see holding anything for 1.5 miles. Yes he came in 3rd in the Spiral at 1 1/8 and then caught a sloppy Derby track but I dont see anything that makes me want to wager on this horse.


This will be a very good race to watch. I do not see this being won by more than a length or two. The call coming down the stretch should be exciting for all who watch.


Prediction.....

Comes down to ORB and REVOLUTIONARY and it may be at the wire. REVOLUTIONARY WINS!!

I said ITSMYLUCKYDAY will be in exotics in the Preakness, well REVOLUTIONARY will be in exotics in this race.

I also like OVERANALYZE to be running late with Johnny V. PALICE MALICE will be in my exotics for 3rd/4th.

LONG SHOT - FRAC DADDY - He has ran well in his races. Ken McPeek has won with bombs before, at 70-1 and 34-1. This horse may go off at 50-1 on Saturday.

I will post my wagers on this thread tomorrow. I will have a Brooklyn Handicapp/Belmont Stakes Double.

sharpsquare Posts:2243 Followers:5
06/05/2013 03:38 PM


Best of luck with the race dietz , i like Revolutionary also and will tail u on some of the add ins on the exotics ! great writeup as always thanks for posting

dietz Posts:250 Followers:1
06/06/2013 10:34 AM

Well I was looking over the sheets last night and I see why Freedom Child is on everyones radar. He got caught up in the gate in the Wood Memorial at the start and pretty much was a "non starter" then he wins the Peter Pan Stakes on the Belmont Track. Out of the same sire as ORB (Malibu Moon) dam is Band Stand (Deputy Minister). Really not a bad looking horse.

The avg win ticket for the Belmont Stakes has been $25.80 over past 12 years. With a high of $142.00 (wouldn't that be nice to hit) Avg. exacta - $142.00, triple $25, 209, super -$145,433.

Big chance to make money ........

You can't be afraid to spend a little on this race, if you are at a bar a beer is going to cost you atleast $4, at the track it will be $10, so why not put that $10 on some exotics and hope to win hug). Avg pay outs are big.


Win bet on REVOLUTIONARY. (hopefully I can make some big bucks on early races and put a large wager on it).

I am sticking with REVOLUTIONARY to win and going to put him with ORB in a exacta box, (depending on how I do on the early races will determine the amount).

Triple - $2 REVOLUTIONARY/ORB w ORB/REVOLUTIONARY w OVERANALYZE, FRAC DADDY, WILL TAKE CHARGE, PALICE MALICE, VYJACK
($20 wager)

Take a chance on a bomb $2 exacta FRAC DADDY w ORB/REVOLUTIONARY ($4)

Take another chance on a triple OVERANALYZE w ORB/REVOLUTIONARY w FREEDOMCHILD, FRAC DADDY, WILL TAKE CHARGE, PALICE MALICE, VYJACK ($1 will cost $10)

Remember, avg triple pay out it $25K

I will not go as far as to pick a SUPERFECTA for this thread, but hey try some, you know I will be.


BROOKLYN HANDICAPP/ BELMONT DOUBLE


Brooklyn Handicapp is 1.5 miles as well. The 4 horse (COLIDOSCOPIO) won the Breeders Cup Marathon and has run this distance and won. He will be favorite.
The 6 horse , FAST FALCON may be the sentimental favorite with Nick Zito as the trainer and his last race seemed pretty darn good losing by a nose. Horse kept running at 1 1.8 and the combo of ZITO/LEZCANO have been hot.
Interesting scenario here as Chris Clement enters the 3 horse QUICK CASABLANCA off a turf race ( sometimes this is done to condition a horse for his next race). It was a 1 1/4 race and he had some late kick, but just not enough and came in third. I prefer Clement on the turf but it is an interesting angle.

I am pretty sure I am going to go w a double of FAST FALCON w ORB, REVOLUTIONARY, OVERANALYZE, FRAC DADDY, PALICE MALICE, FREEDOM CHILD, VYJACK, WILL TAKE CHARGE.

If QUICK CASABLANCA hits 6-1 or higher I am taking that horse. I am looking for value of the dollar with my wager.
6-1 over anything and I stand a good chance of making some cash. If FAST FALCON goes off at 3-1 and ORB wins at 5/2 I may break even or even lose $2. Imagine if you hit 6-1 w 50-1 . WOW!!

Good luck to anyone who wages. Hopefully my thoughts helped you out.