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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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06/04/2013 09:11 AM
MATT FARGO

We lost with the White Sox last night with a premium play but will come back with them tonight for a smaller play. Chicago is in a massive funk as it has lost seven straight games and the offense has done nothing to help as it has scored a total of just 11 runs over this stretch. Many will be riding this streak thinking that the offense continues its slide and while it won't be easy to come out of it, the White Sox have a ton of value here with Jake Peavy on the hill. He is having a solid season with a 3.62 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 10 starts. He has tossed seven quality outings and while he is coming off his worst start of the season, his previous two non-quality performances were followed up with two gems, both leading to Chicago victories. Peavy is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in three career starts at Safeco Field. The Mariners snapped their two-game skid with the victory last night but the offense managed only four runs which was the 14th time in their last 18 games they have scored four runs or fewer. Felix Hernandez has been awesome once against with the exception of a couple bad outings as he has a 2.38 ERA on the season in 12 starts. He has not done as well at home though as he has a 3.18 ERA, which is still solid, but Seattle is just 1-3 in his four home starts and going back to last season, it is 1-7 in his last eight home starts. Play (923) Chicago White Sox
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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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06/04/2013 09:12 AM
JEFFREY BRANDES
Free play

NEW YORK METS at WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Pitchers:
NEW YORK METS: JEREMY HEFNER (R) ERA: 4.50 W/L: 1-5
WASHINGTON NATIONALS:JORDAN ZIMMERMANN (R) ERA: 2.37 W/L: 8-3

For the Mets, JEREMY HEFNER went 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA in three starts against the Nats last season and lasted just four innings, allowing three runs, for a no-decision in his lone start against Washington this season.

Although he's coming off of a poor start in his last, the Nationals' JORDAN ZIMMERMANN has been their most consistent starter. Some more good news for this game is that outfielder Jayson Werth is expected to be back in uniform for the Nationals in today's series opener. In 27 games with the Nationals prior to his injury, Werth was hitting .260 with four homers and 10 RBIs.

Key Trends:
Washington is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing NY Mets
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Mets
NY Mets are 8-15 SU in its last 23 games

Remember, the trend is your friend:

RECOMMENDATION: WASHINGTON NATIONALS on the run line (-1.5+107)
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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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06/04/2013 09:12 AM
FREDDY WILLS

We have gone on a little run here on our free pick articles with three straight wins. After no plays on Monday we look to get back to the action on Tuesday. Tuesday's hot and cold probable starters have just five starters with ERA's under 3.00 in their last three starts combined while we have seven starters with ERA's over 6.00 in their last three starts combined and that is where our free play will come from.

Red Sox (Ryan Dempster -128 2** FREE PLAY)
Ryan Dempster has not been himself lately posting a 2.18 WHIP and a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts combined. However, he is still striking out over 10 batters per 9 innings and facing the Texas Rangers for the first time in his career without Adrian Beltre and Ian Kinsler could be a great time to get back to consistent quality starts and that is what I think will happen on Tuesday. Dempster has struggled with control with over 4.5 BB's per 9 innings which is not like him. Facing the Rangers who are 17th in BB's should help and for what it is worth the Red Sox bullpen has a 1.99 ERA over their last 10 games. Starting a game in June should also help as he has a 2.43 ERA over the last three years covering 14 starts in June. It will also help that his offense is red hot.

The Red Sox will face off against Justin Grimm who has struggled on the road against mediocre competition and now he'll face the Red Sox ranked #1 in OPS vs. RHP and are scoring 7.78 runs per 9 over their last 10 games combined with a .328 average. Texas is also 6-20 in their last 26 road games as a dog up to +150 while Boston is 16-5 in their last 21 home games as a favorite -110 to -150, making that a 36-11 trend in favor of the Red Sox.


Notable Hot Starters:
Ricky Nolasco (1-2, 22.1 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 2.01 ERA)
Matt Moore (2-1, 14 IP, 0.93 WHIP, 1.29 ERA)
Jeff Locke (3-0, 18.1 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 0.00 ERA)
Mike Minor (3-0, 20.1 IP, 0.79 WHIP, 1.77 ERA)
Luis Mendoza (0-3, 16.2 IP, 1.68 WHIP, 2.16 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters:
Chris Tillman (2-1, 15.2 IP, 1.60 WHIP, 6.89 ERA)
Lucas Harrell (1-2, 14.1 IP, 1.81 WHIP, 6.28 ERA)
Clayton Richard (0-3, 15.1 IP, 1.83 WHIP, 8.80 ERA)
Josh Johnson (1-2, 13.2 IP, 1.90 WHIP, 7.90 ERA)
Tim Lincecum (0-3, 16.1 IP, 1.78 WHIP, 8.27 ERA)
Kyle Lohse (0-3, 16.1 IP, 1.65 WHIP, 6.61 ERA)
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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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06/04/2013 09:12 AM
ART ARONSON

This is a 1* free play on the Seattle Mariners over the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night (10:10 EST).

Jake Peavy (6-3, 3.62 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Peavy gave up six runs off eight hits, striking out three and walking none in an 8-3 blowout destruction to the Cubbies on Thursday. It was the 32-year olds shortest outing of the season. So is it time to hit the panic button if you're a Peavy fan? Obviously not. However, his last performance is a little disconcerting and it certainly doesn't get any easier throwing opposite the M's Felix Hernandez (6-4, 2.38 ERA) who went eight commanding frames vs. the Friars on Thursday, ultimately holding the Padres to a single run off three hits. The White Sox come into this series on Monday night having lost seven straight away from friendly confines. One player to keep your eyes on over the next couple of games in this series is Seattle's Kendrys Morales, who is hitting .411 with seven doubles, three home runs and 14 RBIs over his last 13 games overall and who has an even better .444 average over his last 10 vs. the ChiSox. As good as Peavy has been this year, I simply feel that he's not even close to being in the same class as "The King" and believe you'd agree that this mid-sized price on the clearly superior starter is a very intriguing, and dare I say, inviting one. How about you? What do you think? Can Peavy bounce-back or does Hernandez continue his outright domination?
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Pfile Nickname marksmoneymakers
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06/04/2013 09:13 AM
ROB VINCILETTI

On Tuesday the free MLB System play is on the Phillies. Game 902 at 7:05 eastern. The Phillies fit a fabulous system that has won 22 of 29 times times and plays on home favorites off a home favored win at -140 or higher if the total was 8 or less and is 8 or less tonight and our team won by 5 or more runs and had 10 or more hits, while their opponent is off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits with 1 or less errors. Miami is 15-42 long term in June and has a hideous 5.14 Road bullpen era. This game is a rematch from May 3rd with Ricky Nolasco and J. Pettibone, where the Phils won 4-1. Nolasco has lost his last 3 vs the Phillies and is 1-5 on the road. pettibone is 4-1 at home with a 2.97 era and went 6 solid in that May 3rd game going 6 innings and allowing just one run. Look for the Phillies to keep the Marlins on ice here tonight. Take Philadelphia.
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06/04/2013 11:32 AM
Jim Feist's FREE MLB Play for Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Take: (926) MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Start of a 7-game road trip this week for the Oakland A's. Milwaukee is not an easy park to pitch in and Oakland starter A.J. Griffin (4.04 ERA) has been slumping, with a 5.71 ERA his last three starts. Griffin has allowed 11 runs over his last 17 1/3 innings. The Brewers are 86-42 in their last 128 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Brewers continue to struggle on the road but play their best baseball at home. Starter Kyle Lohse doesn't walk anyone (11 in 59+ innings), a must in this park. Play the Brewers.
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06/04/2013 11:32 AM
BRETT ATKINS

This one is all about Michael Wacha, the right-handed rookie taking the mound for the Cardinals tonight. I felt bad for this kid last Thursday when the bullpen cost the kid a win in his Major League debut, despite him making a nice first impression.

Wacha retired the first 13 batters he faced while scattering a mere two hits over seven innings, and did not issue one walk. Tonight he is going to be looking to get things done himself - whether or not he can go the distance remains to be seen - but once he leaves the game, the bullpen won't be inclined to allow the Snakes back in the game.

Meanwhile, the run should be aplenty, as Arizona is recalling Tyler Skaggs from Triple-A Reno to start. He started Game 1 of last Monday's doubleheader, and yes, he held the Rangers to three hits over six shutout innings. But then the southpaw was sent back to Northern Nevada. That has to play mind games with this kid.

Take the Cardinals, who will roll to the easy win.

2* ST. LOUIS RUN LINE
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06/04/2013 11:33 AM
CRAIG DAVIS

Tuesday's free play of the day is the Yankees on the Run Line over the Indians.

2* N.Y. YANKEES -1 1/2 RUNS
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