4-unit Play Take #964 San Francisco Giants (-145) over Colorado Rockies (10:15pm ET) The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies as the two teams begin a three-game set in AT&T Park this weekend. These teams met last week in Colorado and the Rockies took three of the four games in that series. However, the Rockies are a very tough team to beat in Coors Field, so I expect this series to be a complete 180 from last week. Both teams have identical 26-21 records overall, but the Giants are 17-8 at home this season while the Rockies are just 10-12 on the road. The Giants are also better than the Rockies in every phase of the game. They have the better starting pitcher today, the better bullpen, they play better defense and they also have a better offense after taking into account park effects. Tim Lincecum is the Giants starter and he's looked really good overall despite a few rough outings. His peripheral numbers have improved from last season and he's slowly getting back to his old form. Tyler Chatwood goes for the Rockies and he's been a great bet against guy during his career. He's struggled with his confidence and I've never really liked his stuff very much. This game has the Giants written all over it.
4-unit Play Take #966 Toronto Blue Jays (+100) over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) The Toronto Blue Jays haven't lived up to expectations so far in 2013, but the tide is starting to turn. The Jays have won seven out of 10 games and the offense is really starting to click. During those 10 contests, they have averaged 6.4 runs per game against some pretty good pitching staffs. Today they'll go up against right-hander Chris Tillman of the Orioles. Tillman comes in with a 3.52 ERA in nine starts, but he's been fortunate. His strand rate is very high at 83% and he's walking more than a batter more per nine innings than he did last season. It's time for some regression and a dangerous Blue Jays lineup should be able to arrange that. The Jays go with a rookie making his debut today in Sean Nolin. The young lefty has put up exceptional numbers in the minor leagues. He'll be tough for the Orioles to face since they've never seen him and probably won't have much of a book on him yet. Toronto is rolling and I think they get the job done today as a home underdog.