finance Posts:8259 Followers:219
On 05/24/2013 11:16 AM in MLB

Baseball totals system

OK this may seem totally arbitrary and I haven't back-tested it to see if there's any validity, but this is what I'm doing.....

For any team that is 60% or better for the season either over or under I'm going to make the assumption that the books are going to adjust their lines or they are going to cool off/heat up and in any event slowly creep back to the mean....

For each of these teams I'm going to institute a 3 game chase that the Over team will go under or vice-versa once in a 3 game series and if they don't the chase stops....

Right now there are 8 teams that fit the criteria -
Tampa Bay is 63% over
Detroit is 64% over
Texas is 62% under
Oakland is 63% over
Angels are 66% over
Houston is 64% over
Mets are 61% over
Arizona is 64% under

I'm eliminating Oakland for the time being as it appears the adjustment has already occurred as they are 8-2 under for their last 10. Also leaving out Detroit and the Angels for this weekend as they played the first game of a 4 game series last night and I 'aint chasing more than 3....

I know this is pretty damn arbitrary from a starting standpoint and probably a stupid system, but it's going to give me something to track that hopefully won't get me killed - LOL....let's see how it goes...

  • All Time Record: 1886-1845-51
  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-4-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 19-15-3
finance Posts:8259 Followers:219
05/24/2013 11:19 AM

OK so given the criteria here are the plays for today - all for 1 unit....

Mets/Atl Under 7.5 -115
SD/Az Over 8.5 -120
NYY/TB Under 8.5 -125
Oak/Hou Under 8.5 -115
Tex/Sea Over 8 -105

I know I was going to leave Oakland off but they are playing Houston who qualifies....let's see what happens - hopefully by Sunday I'm down to one or zero of these left...

Pray for me - LOL

  • All Time Record: 1886-1845-51
  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-4-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 19-15-3
jimmythegreek Posts:10556 Followers:377
05/24/2013 11:26 AM

Sounds interesting. May have to keep some records myself and tail. GL!

For the latest sports news, capper picks and tracker results, turn to JTG, the leader in BTB information

  • All Time Record: 11794-12103-442
  • Last 7 Days Record: 90-117-5
  • Last 30 Days Record: 294-332-19
finance Posts:8259 Followers:219
05/25/2013 01:02 PM

Yeesh 1-3 with a lucky suspended game.

Mets under 7 to win 1
tampa under 8 to win 2.25
Zona over 8.5 to win 2.2
Houston under 8.5 to win 2.15

Chases are great! LOL!

Good luck out there!

  • All Time Record: 1886-1845-51
  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-4-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 19-15-3
finance Posts:8259 Followers:219
05/26/2013 01:59 PM

3-1 yesterday so down to 1 for today...

Houston Under 9 to win 4.41

Now I remember why I hate these things - LOL

Back in a bit with some Nascar plays for the big 600.....

  • All Time Record: 1886-1845-51
  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-4-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 19-15-3
finance Posts:8259 Followers:219
05/26/2013 06:29 PM

Whew squeaked it out...

"system" is 5-0 + 5.0 units...going to stop now and go tout..
lmao

Back tomorrow for another leg...

  • All Time Record: 1886-1845-51
  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-4-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 19-15-3
finance Posts:8259 Followers:219
05/27/2013 10:56 AM

OK time for leg 2 - 3 game chases...

Detroit under 7.5 -105
Houston under 8.5 -105
Tampa under 7 +105
Texas over 9 -115 (game 1)
Mets under 7.5 -125
Angels under 7 +100

Could have game 2 of the Tex/Zona DH if the first one doesn't hit....

  • All Time Record: 1886-1845-51
  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-4-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 19-15-3
bobalou Posts:4946 Followers:143
05/27/2013 12:01 PM

GL with today's system plays !!!



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lubo_terziev Posts:118 Followers:12
05/27/2013 12:07 PM

It makes sense! I always say if you want to beat the bookie you have to think like one. GL Finance

enzymex Posts:1732 Followers:59
05/27/2013 12:08 PM

GL with the system Finance!