cnotes Posts:23633 Followers:32
On 10/08/2011 10:28 AM in MLB

Cnotes ALDS & NLDS Championship Series Best Bets !

Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers ALCS Game 1

Justin Verlander and CJ Wilson match up in Saturday’s ALCS opener.
Perhaps it's a blessing in disguise. With neither the New York Yankees nor Boston Red Sox in the ALCS, Joe Buck and Tim McCarver will have little to talk about.

Nah, who am I kidding? Having no knowledge of their subjects has never stopped the FOX duo before, and they can always point out their network's sitcom series stars in the stands or drone on and on and on about the teams that are not playing as opposed to the teams that are. It's worked for FOX baseball broadcasts before.

My soapbox put away for now, let's discuss the teams that are in the 2011 ALCS and specifically Game 1 on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET). The Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers might not have the same Madison Avenue appeal as other clubs, but don't mistake either as being unworthy of battling for the American League pennant.

Detroit knocked out the mighty Yankees in the Bronx Thursday night to win Game 5 of their ALDS. The Tigers finished fourth in the AL in scoring (4.86 RPG) during the regular season despite manager Jim Leyland's lineup not being overly powerful (169 HR, 7th) or fast (49 SB, 14th).

Leyland's pitching staff also didn't knock the socks off stat geeks in 2011. Detroit hurlers were seventh in ERA (4.04), eighth in WHIP (1.31), eighth in strikeouts (1,115) and fifth in homers allowed (149).

The Tigers did have one very, very good pitcher, however, and Justin Verlander will start against the Rangers on Saturday. MLB odds opened with the Detroit ace a small favorite in the 110-120 range.

Verlander claimed the pitching Triple Crown in the AL with 24 wins, a 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts, and there's really no reason for him not be the unanimous selection for Cy Young honors. He added another win in Game 3 of the ALDS vs. New York, working eight innings and striking out 11 two days after starting the rain-interrupted Game 1.

The fireballer has held the Rangers in check the past few seasons, Detroit winning three of his five assignments vs. Texas with Verlander sporting a 2.25 ERA over 36 innings. One of the five losses on his scorecard this season was to the Rangers in Detroit, but it was hardly Verlander's fault. The April 11 outing was one of his four complete games in 2011, Verlander allowing just a pair of runs in the Tigers' 2-0 loss on a -135 line.

Texas coasted to a second-straight AL West crown and a second consecutive appearance in the ALCS behind a very balanced effort. Ron Washington's lineup ranked third in scoring (5.28 RPG) in the AL, second in homers (210), fourth in steals (143) and second in OPS (.800). And though you won't find a household name on the pitching staff, Rangers arms ranked in the AL's top 5 in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, and posted those stats working their home games in a far less pitcher-friendly park than Detroit.

CJ Wilson has become the No. 1 hurler in Texas' ace-less rotation, and will begin a Rangers playoff series for the third time in the past two Octobers. The southpaw has had plenty of rest, last pitching more than a week ago in Game 1 of the ALDS vs. Tampa Bay. That start no doubt left a sour taste in Wilson's mouth – 5 IP, 8 R, 3 HR – and he should be itching to get to the hill Saturday in front of the home fans.

It will be just the third lifetime start against the Tigers for the converted reliever. Wilson's lone outing vs. their lineup this campaign came in Detroit on April 12 with the lefty not figuring into the decision of Texas' 5-4 loss. Wilson and the Rangers were laying -135 in the contest, and his linescore included 6 2/3-innings pitched with the Tigers scoring four times on seven hits.

Saturday's total is 7½, well below the closing numbers of the three games between the two clubs played in Texas during the regular season that ranged from 9-10. Two of those three did finish 'over' the number, and all three finished above 7½. But then, Verlander and Wilson didn't pitch in that series.

The weather forecast for Saturday in the Arlington area isn't all that great. There's a 30 percent chance of isolated storms during the day, and those chances increase after nightfall. Expect a muggy 83ºF at first pitch with SSE winds in the 12-15 mph range. Don't expect those winds in from right-center to necessarily knock down fly balls.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23633 Followers:32
10/08/2011 10:33 AM

ALCS Preview: Tigers vs. Rangers

DETROIT TIGERS (98-69)

vs. TEXAS RANGERS (99-67)


Game 1 First pitch: Saturday, TBD
Series Line: Texas -130, Detroit +110

The defending A.L. champion Rangers will have to go through Justin Verlander and Detroit if they’re going to return to the World Series.

The Tigers beat Texas six of nine times this year, and that was with ace Verlander losing his only start against the Rangers, back on April 11 (Verlander is a traditionally slow starter). Detroit can nearly match the Rangers’ offense, and Verlander gives them an almost automatic two wins in the series. Texas will start three lefties in this series, and the Tigers hit .281 against southpaws (third-best in the majors) and scored six runs in 8.2 innings off elite lefty CC Sabathia in the ALDS. And considering the Tigers proved their mettle on the road with two wins at Yankee Stadium, the pick is underdog DETROIT to win the series.

The FoxSheets also expect the Tigers to prevail:

DETROIT is 35-18 (+17.5 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was DETROIT 5.1, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*).

After a Game 1 hiccup in the ALDS, the Rangers won three tight games over Tampa Bay. C Mike Napoli (.320 BA, 30 HR, 75 RBI in the regular season) continued his hot hitting in the postseason, going 5-for-14 with a home run in the Rays series. 2B Ian Kinsler (.255, 32, 77) was only 4-for-16 in the ALDS, but had two doubles, a homer and three walks. Adrian Beltre (.296, 32, 105) started just 1-for-11 in the Tampa series, but hit three homers in the series-clinching Game 4 win. LF Josh Hamilton (.298, 25, 94), RF Nelson Cruz (.263, 29, 87) and DH Michael Young (.338, 11, 106) are all capable of having a huge ALCS.

A year ago, Cliff Lee helped pitched the Rangers into the World Series. But with Lee gone, their rotation is a bit shaky. Ace C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA in the regular season) allowed eight runs (six earned) in five innings in their Game 1 loss to Tampa. Young lefty Derek Holland (16-5, 3.95 ERA) won Game 2, but was far from dominant, allowing three runs (one earned) over 6.1 innings. Lefty Matt Harrison labored for the Game 4 win, allowing three runs and nine base runners over 5.2 innings (but also striking out nine). Colby Lewis continued to be a postseason stud though, throwing six innings of one-run ball against Tampa. He’s now 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in five career playoff starts.

The Rangers bullpen remains something of a question mark, allowing seven runs in 15 innings in the Tampa series, but closer Neftali Feliz saved each of their three wins against the Rays.

Detroit’s biggest advantage will once again be Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA), who will start Game 1 on normal rest. He allowed four runs and 10 base runners while striking out 11 Yankees over eight innings in a Game 3 win, his only full start of the ALDS. Manager Jim Leyland has already said Verlander will only pitch Games 1 and 5, making Detroit favorites to win those two games. Max Scherzer (15-9, 4.43) looked sharp in a start and relief appearance against the Yankees, allowing just one run in 7.1 innings. Doug Fister (11-13, 2.83) bounced back from a shaky Game 1 appearance for the win in Game 5. Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.75), the presumed Game 4 starter, is the weakest pitcher in either rotation.

Detroit’s offense got it done against the Yankees despite a quiet series from MVP-caliber 1B Miguel Cabrera (.344, 30 HR, 105 RBI), who was just 3-for-15 in the ALDS. They got big performances from a couple of unlikely sources though. RF Don Kelly (.245, 7 HR, 28 RBI) went 4-for-11 with three runs scored and LF Delmon Young (.268, 12, 64) was 6-for-19 with three home runs. Young suffered an oblique injury in Game 5 and his status for the ALCS is unknown.

The Tigers bullpen also looks a little bit suspect right now. Jose Valverde closed out two ALDS games, but also gave up two runs and four walks in three innings. Set-up man Joaquin Benoit made things interesting in Game 5 by walking in a run in the seventh. Al Albuquerque, who was the bridge to Benoit during the regular season, has imploded, allowing three runs and getting one out between two appearances.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23633 Followers:32
10/08/2011 10:36 AM

MLB


Saturday, October 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
American League Championship Series preview and pick
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detroit Tigers (95-67) vs. Texas Rangers (96-66)

Season series: Tigers won 6-3
Series odds: Texas (-125), Detroit (+105)

PITCHING: By finishing off the Tampa Bay Rays in four games, the Rangers earned themselves a significant advantage on the mound. Texas can go with the same rotation it used against the Rays, starting with sensational southpaw C.J. Wilson in Saturday's opener. He'll likely be followed by Derek Holland, Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison.

Detroit was unable to use Justin Verlander in its Game 5 win over the New York Yankees, so he should be good to go in the ALCS opener. He gives the Tigers a slight edge in Game 1, but Texas will have the advantage beyond that after Detroit was forced to use both Doug Fister and Max Scherzer in the deciding game against the New York Yankees.

The Texas bullpen is one of the best in baseball, with Darren Oliver and Mike Adams providing a nasty left-right combo on the way to closer Neftali Feliz. Jose Valverde aside, the Tigers simply don't match up.

EDGE: Rangers

HITTING: The Rangers (.283) and Tigers (.277) were first and third in the major leagues in batting, and both teams are capable of putting up huge innings against even the best pitching staffs.

Texas enjoyed a decent edge in home runs, hitting 41 more than Detroit during the regular season, and a sizeable advantage on the basepaths, where the club finished with 143 stolen bases compared to just 49 by the Tigers.

Detroit has firepower of its own, led by the gregarious Miguel Cabrera, but isn’t a threat to swipe bases and struggled at times against a Yankees pitching staff that was largely underwhelming.

For the Tigers to keep up with the Rangers, they'll need extensions of the solid performances posted by Delmon Young, Brandon Inge and Magglio Ordonez. It's a safe bet that won't happen and, with the Rangers dangerous from one through nine, Texas should have no trouble outslugging Detroit.

EDGE: Rangers

INTANGIBLES: The core of the Rangers club was in this very position a year ago and looked dominant in a six-game win over the Yankees. That experience could be a major factor this time around.

Texas is also playing better baseball, having won three straight while the Tigers needed to escape a bases-loaded jam in the eighth inning to prevail in Game 5 against the Yankees. Whatever momentum Detroit had coming into the postseason is long gone.

EDGE: Rangers

PREDICTION: Rangers in five games


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23633 Followers:32
10/08/2011 10:38 AM

MLB


Saturday, October 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (100, 7.5)

The Tigers enter the ALCS on an emotional high, having upset the Yankees in Game 5 at Yankee Stadium. Detroit also went through the Yankees in the first round when it reached the World Series in 2006 under manager Jim Leyland.

But their bullpen struggled mightily for most of the ALDS, and that could be a problem unless ace Justin Verlander goes the distance.

The Rangers, who won three straight over Tampa Bay following a 9-0 loss in the ALDS opener, have a deep, balanced lineup. Five players drove in multiple runs in the series.

"We constantly have different guys step up," Michael Young said.

Texas ace C.J. Wilson should bounce back after giving up three homers to the Rays in the opener.

And he might not have to face Detroit left fielder Delmon Young, who strained his oblique in Thursday's win over New York. Young hit three homers in the series while batting .316.

Tigers All-Star first baseman Miguel Cabrera hit .200 in the ALDS with one extra-base hit.

The Rangers have won eight of their last nine home games.

Pick: Rangers

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23633 Followers:32
10/08/2011 10:39 AM

MLB
Long Sheet


Saturday, October 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (98 - 69) at TEXAS (99 - 67) - 7:35 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. C.J. WILSON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 7-24 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 94-61 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 74-42 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 73-43 (+17.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 46-33 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS is 100-66 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WILSON is 44-23 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WILSON is 32-14 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 93-68 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 45-31 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 23-11 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 99-70 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 48-37 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
VERLANDER is 27-10 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 46-20 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-3 (+3.5 Units) against TEXAS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. TEXAS since 1997
VERLANDER is 6-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 1.063.
His team's record is 7-2 (+4.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.2 units)

C.J. WILSON vs. DETROIT since 1997
WILSON is 0-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.499.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Saturday, October 8

Verlander is 13-0, 2.97 in his last 15 starts; he lost 2-0 to Texas back on April 11 at home, throwing 119-pitch complete game (Rangers got two runs in 7th). Leyland got Tigers thru first round without overextending his starters too badly, which is why he's a great manager. Wilson is 0-2, 6.52 in his last four starts; he allowed four runs in 6.2 IP at Detroit on April 12, a game Tigers later won. Detroit is 6-3 against the Rangers in 2011, winning two of three in all three series (two at home).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/08/2011 11:22 AM
    MLB
    Dunkel


    Detroit at Texas
    The Tigers look to build on their 13-3 record in Justin Verlander's last 16 road starts. Detroit is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

    SATURDAY, OCTOBER 8

    Game 901-902: Detroit at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.070; Texas (Wilson) 15.029
    Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
    Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 7 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Over




    MLB


    Saturday, October 8

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    8:05 PM
    DETROIT vs. TEXAS
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against Texas
    Detroit is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Texas
    Texas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games at home
    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23633 Followers:32
10/08/2011 11:26 AM

MLB
Short Sheet


Saturday, October 8

American League Championship Series - Game 1
DETROIT at TEXAS, 8:05 PM ET (TC)
VERLANDER: 15-2 TSR as road favorite
WILSON: TEX 2-7 at home off one run win

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/09/2011 09:56 AM
    Top 5 MLB Trends

    STL
    MIL MIL are 16-0 in Greinkes last 16 home starts.

    DET
    TEX DET are 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

    STL
    MIL STL are 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

    STL
    MIL Over is 6-0 in Garcias last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.

    STL
    MIL Over is 6-0 in Garcias last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23633 Followers:32
10/09/2011 09:58 AM

National League Championship Series preview and pick

St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66)

Season series: Tied 9-9
Series odds: St. Louis (+130), Milwaukee (-140)

PITCHING: Milwaukee will open the best-of-seven National League Championship Series with a decided edge on the mound. With Yovani Gallardo throwing in the NLDS-clinching Game 5 victory, the Brewers will likely go with Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum in the opening two games against the Cardinals. Greinke was just about as good as a pitcher can be at Miller Park in the regular season, going 11-0 in 15 starts. The Brewers will be able to match Gallardo against St. Louis ace Chris Carpenter, who was sensational in outdueling Roy Halladay in the clinching game against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Milwaukee's bullpen ERA during the season was four-tenths of a point lower than the Cardinals', and was even stingier in the NLDS, posting an ERA just over 2. The Cardinals will need virtuoso performances from starters Edwin Jackson, Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia to stand any chance of winning this series.

Edge: Brewers

HITTING: Even with Albert Pujols missing 15 games with an arm injury, the Cardinals scored the fifth-most runs in the majors over the course of the regular season. With Matt Holliday working his way back from a finger injury, the Cardinals can match whatever the Brewers put together on offense - at least where the middle of the order is concerned.

It's unlikely that Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumacher (may be out with an oblique injury) will hit .600 again in the NLCS, but their contributions will go a long way in determining whether the Cardinals can do enough damage against a formidable Brewers pitching staff. The Brewers' best hitters during the season - Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder - were also their best performers against the Diamondbacks.

They'll need more out of their support pieces, particularly Rickie Weeks. The veteran second baseman had just one hit in 18 at-bats against Arizona, and if he struggles like that again, Milwaukee could find itself in trouble.

Edge: Cardinals

INTANGIBLES: The wild-Cardinals have been here recently, winning the National League pennant in 2004 and 2006. That said, they still face far less pressure than the NL Central-champion Brewers, who rolled to a 96-win regular season and have to be considered the favorites after the Cardinals upset Philadelphia. St. Louis manager Tony La Russa is one of the best in the business, and could make the difference down the stretch in close games.

Edge: Cardinals

PREDICTION: Cardinals in seven games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23633 Followers:32
10/09/2011 11:34 AM

Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers ALCS Game 2 Preview

The Detroit Tigers could be paying the price of going the distance in the ALDS when they visit the Texas Rangers for Game 2 of the ALCS on Sunday night.

First pitch from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington will be at 7:45 p.m. (ET), with the MLB odds to be released shortly at Don Best.

The series opener on Saturday night is still pending with Justin Verlander facing C.J. Wilson in a battle of aces. Detroit was a small 110-115 favorite behind the eventual Cy Young award winner and the total was just 7½ runs.

Manager Jim Leyland made the strategic decision not to use Verlander in relief in Thursday’s deciding Game 5 in Yankee Stadium (3-2 win). He did use fellow starter Max Scherzer in that capacity (1 1/3 IP, 1 ER) after Doug Fister went five strong.

Leyland originally said that fourth-starter Rick Porcello would get the nod Sunday, but he switched it Scherzer and is hoping the 32 pitches and short rest from Thursday won’t affect him too much.

Scherzer (15-9, 4.43 ERA regular season) is very talented with an 8.72 career strikeout rate (8.03 this year). Detroit is 5-1 in his last six starts, including a brilliant Game 2 outing in New York when he threw six scoreless innings (two hits). The team won 5-3 to tie the series.

The 27-year-old had just a 5.23 ERA away during the regular season. His one visit to Texas was five earned runs over five innings in June (13-7 slugfest win). The Tigers won all three of his starts against Texas with a 3.00 ERA in the two at home.

The Rangers won 96 games in the regular season, one more than Detroit. They’re looking for their second straight World Series appearance after falling short against San Fran last year. Having Philadelphia and the Yankees already out gives them a great chance.

Manager Ron Washington had the luxury of setting his rotation any way he wanted after dispatching Tampa Bay 3-1 in games last Tuesday. He decided to stay the same as the ALDS with Wilson followed by Derek Holland, Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison. That leaves the effective Alexi Ogando in the pen.

The 24-year-old lefty Holland got his first career postseason start last Saturday. He allowed three runs, but just one earned over five innings in an 8-6 home win, also tying that series. He then pitched 1 1/3 innings of relief last Tuesday (no runs) in the close-out.

Holland was 16-5 with a 3.95 ERA in the regular season (4.69 ERA at home). However, he’s 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last four home starts, including the playoffs. Texas is 6-1 in his last seven starts overall (2.03 ERA).

The ‘over’ is 19-6-1 in Holland’s last 26 home starts. This is his first appearance against the Tigers this year and just second lifetime.

Detroit went 6-3 against the Rangers in the regular season, including 2-1 in the Lone Star State. The ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games in Texas (Detroit averaging eight runs per game) and is 13-4-4 in the last 21 meetings there overall.

The Rangers were 52-29 at home during the regular season (+7.2 units). They split their two playoff home games with Tampa Bay and are 8-1 in their last nine there overall.

The Tigers were 45-36 away in the regular season (plus 11.0 units). They showed a lot of moxie closing out the Yanks in the Bronx and taking two of three there. They’re 19-7 in their last 26 away overall.

Detroit outfielder Delmon Young was left off the ALCS roster due to an oblique injury. He hit a big home run in Game 5 against New York and had three overall for the series. That’s pretty good for a guy the struggling Twins gave up on in August in a waiver-wire trade.

Arlington weather for Sunday night should have scattered thunderstorms with temperatures in the 70s.

Game 3 will switch back to Motown on Tuesday with Lewis battling Fister.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23633 Followers:32
10/09/2011 12:26 PM

MLB
Dunkel


Detroit at Texas
The Cardinals look to build on their 10-2 record in their last 12 games as a road underdog. St. Louis is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 9

Game 903-904: St. Louis at Milwaukee (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.618; Milwaukee (Greinke) 15.135
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+125); Over

Game 905-906: Detroit at Texas (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.066; Texas (Holland) 15.033
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over




MLB


Sunday, October 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. MILWAUKEE
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis

7:45 PM
DETROIT vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing on the road against Texas
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Texas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB


Sunday, October 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hot lines: Sunday's best MLB bet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-144, 7.5)

The Brewers didn't merely win Game 5 against the Diamondbacks on Friday night. They did it just in time to prevent Zack Greinke from taking the mound in extra innings.

Greinke was warming up in the bullpen when Nyjer "Tony Plush" Morgan delivered a walk-off single that sent Milwaukee into this NLCS. As a result, the right-hander will be able start Game 1 on Sunday against St. Louis.

That's music to the Brewers' ears but not good news for the Cardinals, because the Crew is an incredible 16-0 in Greinke's 16 starts at Miller Park in 2011. Greinke went 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA at home during the regular season, striking out 119 batters in 95 innings. By comparison, he went just 5-6 with a 4.70 ERA on the road.

"The starting pitching has been a group effort, because they've all been good," said Milwaukee's Craig Counsell. "The fact Zack was coming in the game (on Friday) was because we had to win the game, and if that happened, then, well, that's the way it had to happen. Now he can pitch Game 1, and we like that, obviously."

Greinke is 2-1 with a solid 3.15 ERA versus the Cardinals. As for St, Louis, starter Jaime Garcia has been effective but--like Greinke--he is far better at home (2.55 ERA) than on the road (4.61 ERA). He allowed seven runs in five innings in his only start at Miller Park, on August 2.

Garcia better watch out for Milwaukee's Ryan Braun. The NL MVP candidate remained on fire in the division series, batting .500 with one home run and 16 total bases.

Pick: Brewers


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23633 Followers:32
10/09/2011 12:31 PM

MLB
Long Sheet


Sunday, October 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (93 - 74) at MILWAUKEE (99 - 68) - 4:05 PM
JAIME GARCIA (L) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 179-151 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 83-75 (-28.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 92-85 (-21.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 100-68 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 61-24 (+29.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 14-0 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Sunday this season.
MILWAUKEE is 52-29 (+16.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 100-68 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 37-17 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 38-15 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
GREINKE is 16-0 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 22-7 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 11-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 22-7 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 48-37 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ST LOUIS is 47-35 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 69-46 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 74-54 (+6.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 23-13 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
GARCIA is 17-5 (+11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARCIA is 11-2 (+9.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 14-22 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 9-9 (+0.3 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.2 Units)

JAIME GARCIA vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
GARCIA is 3-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.72 and a WHIP of 1.209.
His team's record is 4-3 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.3 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GREINKE is 4-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.178.
His team's record is 4-3 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (98 - 70) at TEXAS (100 - 67) - 4:05 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. DEREK HOLLAND (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-4 (+2.4 Units) against TEXAS this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.6 Units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. TEXAS since 1997
SCHERZER is 3-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.41 and a WHIP of 1.243.
His team's record is 5-1 (+4.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.7 units)

DEREK HOLLAND vs. DETROIT since 1997
HOLLAND is 0-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Short Sheet


Sunday, October 9

NL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 1
ST LOUIS at MILWAUKEE, 4:05 PM ET
GARCIA: ST LOUIS 27-10 OVER in road games against division opponents
GREINKE: 9-0 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -175

AL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 2
DETROIT at TEXAS, 4:05 PM ET
SCHERZER: 5-1 TSR against AL West opponents
HOLLAND: 1-5 TSR when working on 7 or more days rest

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/09/2011 12:46 PM
    Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
    10/08/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­35 Detail
    10/07/11 2-­2-­0 50.00% +­255 Detail
    10/06/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% +­215 Detail
    10/05/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­1005 Detail
    10/04/11 3-­3-­1 50.00% -­35 Detail
    10/03/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
    10/02/11 5-­1-­0 83.33% +­2505 Detail
    10/01/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­1000 Detail
    Totals 20-­10-­1 66.67% +5910

    Sunday, October 9

    Game Score Status Pick Amount

    St. Louis - 4:05 PM ET Milwaukee -140 500

    Milwaukee - Over 7.5 500

    Detroit - 7:45 PM ET Detroit +129 500

    Texas - Under 9 500
    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: