2 Replies | 205 ViewsOn 05/15/2013 02:46 PM in General
This course is small and when i say that is means tights turns for horses to run on. Belmont has long gradual turns which gives horses who like to stretch their strides an advantage. Preakness tends to favor speed horse and the stretch run is short, not much time to close on a horse in the stretch.
Pay outs - the Preakness never really pays out HUGE pay outs. The hightest TRIPLE pay out in the history of the Preakness Stakes is $3100, top 5 goes from $3100 - $1100. Last year the exacta paid $18.60.
Unless you hammer one exacta several times or a triple, the money is not huge for exotics. The money wagered in spread among fewer horses so the pay outs become less. Derby had 20 horses (19) Preakness has 11.
On the other hand you can afford to bet more exotics.. say you bet triple. ORB/ITSMYLUCKYDAY/ ALL
$2 cost you $18. Exacta ALL/ORB hoping a bomb comes in costs you $20. Do that in the derby and your bets double.
you can probably tell how I am thinking of wagering now....
Lets start with ORB
Not much to write about this horse.......won Kentucky Derby and did it going away even if it was raining. Has won 5 in a row and should do very very against these horse. The horse seems to be getting better and better. Nothing not to like here.
OXBOW- Game horse who on any other day could win a race, but in this race he is going up against some pretty darn good horses and he has not won a Grade 1 race just yet. Seems to get beat pretty good in this class.
WILL TAKE CHARGE- Another horse with a non Grade 1 win, but a solid win a grade 2. This horse is a freight train on the track and just needs to get rolling. He was coming hard in the Derby, but got cut off by a tiring Verrezano. Hard to get a big horse rolling when he has long strides. Lukas said if he did not get cut off he would have had a chance, but definately in the money. He ended up 7th. Worried if this horse can open up and get going on a tight race track.
GOLDENCENTS- this horse just did not run his race at all. Front runner who got caught up in a speed duel and just got demolished. Sloppy track, fast fractions and mudd in his face (remember I said he never had mudd before). Jockey pulled him up top of stretch and he got 17th place. This track my be more to his liking, speed favored, no real horse to push him on the pace and he is capable of the distance with speed.
DEPARTING - ahhhhh......The unknown horse. Have to respect these horses who were either saved to run the race on purpose people forget about because they are sooo familiar with the Derby Horses. Problem is, never has the horse been up against the competition of these horses. It has run in some good races, but against whom? Won a grade 3 but ran over mathed in a grade 2 and prior to those some allowance races and minor stakes. May be over bet because he is unkown.
GOVERNOR CHARLIE - as of right now this horse is undecided in the race. Baffert may scratch him any hour. He had a bruised foot prior to the Derby and missed some training so he was scratched. This horse is still a question of whether it is a freak of nature or did a Dreaming of Julia and ran race of his life. He set the track record at Sun Land and did it with ease.
I think this horse does well on this track for his style....question is does he run or not. Get some long odds on him too.
MYLUTE - Very well rounded race horse. This horse came in 5th in the Derby and has run with some good horse in almost each race it has ran. Hangs in there with Revolutionary, Will Take Charge and ORB. Not much not like about this horse as it gives an honest effort each time out and can hang with them all. Makes you wonder just why it has not won a race yet other than allowance. Some horese just dont want to win, get used to it. Once again, beautiful horse....
ITSMYLUCKYDAY - biggest thing here is the change of jockey to Johnny V. Funny, Johnny V hops off ORB to ride Verrezano and now he gets chosen to ride ITSMYLUCKYDAY. This horse has been up there with very good horses, two wins and a second in graded stakes races. Derby race was NOT his style at all, sloppy track was a bad from the start.
This horse has what it takes to win and now he adds a great jockey on top of it.
TITLETOWNFIVE - got to be honest...I have not idea what this horse is doing here. He had a 4th place finish in the derny trial races and with the speed his half mile work out in 47.35 he is entered into this race. Derby went in 46.3 on wet track,
Governor Charlie did 1/2 mils in 45.6 and set track record...... Goldencents does 1/2 mile in 46.6 last two races. So what makes his 47.35 so darn special. Lukas is the trainer and he must see something, but to put this horse up in the same class as ORB, ITSMYLUCKYDAY and even Mylute I just dont see it. If anyone out there can see this please post on here. Curious.
I will have my wagers for the race tomorrow and maybe a few other races.