0 Reply | 60 ViewsOn 05/10/2013 12:51 PM in Cappers
Money Line: +132 Chi Cubs
Friday's card is an interesting one with plenty of NBA action and top MLB pitchers going. We will have an NBA against the spread play of the day, but most of our concentration will come on today's MLB card where we have a total of 8 probable starting pitchers who have ERA's under 3.00 over their last three starts and just 3 cold pitchers with ERA's over 6.00. These stats create value on both sides of the mound. Pitchers who have a low ERA are already over valued in most cases, but as always it depends on the match ups and we like Jeff Samardzija on Friday.
Jeff Samardzija +135 1* Free Play
Samardzija is having a pretty consistent year so far and has even pitched well on the road posting a 3.04 ERA in 4 starts. That's rare for a young star, but I feel like he is ready to be a consistent pitcher for the rest of the year. He has an easier task today against the Nationals who are ranked 22nd in OPS vs. RHP as he has faced the Reds, Brewers, Braves and Pirates on the road this year. 3 of the 4 are in the top 15 in OPS vs. RHP and he's pitched good enough to win in all 4 games. Samardzija has a good history against hte Nationals posting a 0.83 WHIP and a 1.15 ERA which is interesting considering his weakness of giving up too many BB's. He's only walked 1 batter in those two starts and the Nationals again this year are ranked 23rd in BB's which should only help Samardzija pitch another gem tonight.
The Cubs on the other hand will also have their hand full against Ross Detwiler who continues to pitch well. However, the Cubs are scoring 5.16 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. LHP and Detwiler will face a Cubs line up that has 53 AB against him and a .803 OPS. Detwiler also is 4-10 in his last 14 vs. the NL Central and has a 4.21 xFIP on the year which is more accurately displaying what his ERA should be. I think we are getting great value with the Cubs here against a Nationals team that has struggled offensively. Cubs are also fresh off a day of rest which means there bullpen should be at full strength. Cubs have only given up 4+ runs after a day off once this entire season.
Notable Hot Starters:
Tony Cingrani (19 IP, 2-1, 0.63 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Shelby Miller (2-1, 18.1 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 1.96 ERA)
Alexi Ogando (1-2, 19 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Dylan Axelrod (0-3, 19.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 2.75 ERA)
Phil Hughes (3-0, 21 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)
Hisahi Iwakuma (2-1, 18 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 1.50 ERA)
Edinson Volquez (3-0, 19.1 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)
Cold Starter Of The Day:
Today's cold starter that has the best shot at winning tonight has got to be Wandy Rodriguez and the Pirates. Though I'm not making an official MLB sports pick on this play I would think there is value with the Pirates because Rodriguez has pitched poorly recently. He has a 2.45 ERA over his last 5 starts vs. the Mets and he's backed by a better bullpen. The Mets have a .198 average at home vs. LHP and they will start Shawn Marcum who is still trying to get used to starting again.
Notable Cold Starters:
Jon Garland (1-2, 17 IP, 1.88 WHIP, 6.35 ERA)
Wade Davis (1-2, 14.1 IP, 2.44 WHIP, 7.53 ERA)
To see more of Freddy Wills's plays click here.