MLB Pick: Twins vs Tribe
2 Replies | 227 ViewsOn 05/04/2013 12:39 PM in MLB
Okay thought I would join the great group of baseball handicappers here at BTB and try my luck at handicapping baseball.
I am going to take a quick look and breakdown the early game between the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians.
For those of you that don’t know we offer a great section for tools to handicap baseball games right here at BTB
(http://www.bangthebook.com/baseball-betting/), this is where I got most of my info for this pick which hopefully wins easily.
One area that I always have to see before making any wager in baseball is the starting lineup and current batting averages for both teams. So here is the lineup for today’s game.
B. Dozier 2b .253
J. Mauer dh .283
J. Willingham lf .239
J. Morneau 1b .263
T. Plouffe 3b .230
R. Doumit c .200
C. Parmelee rf .237
A. Hicks cf .115
P. Florimon ss .235
M. Brantley lf .300
J. Kipnis 2b .203
A. Cabrera ss .217
N. Swisher dh .265
M. Reynolds 1b .293
C. Santana c .383
L. Chisenhall 3b .222
D. Stubbs cf .284
E. Carrera rf
Streaks: Streaks are also an important aspect of the game and the Indians certainly are playing great baseball. They have won five straight to include a 7-6 victory in the opener of the series. It is notable that the Indians starting pitcher Scott Kazmir has gone nearly three years without a win. Which brings me to my next area to handicap the lefty vs. righty matchup.
Left vs Right: Kazmir is a lefty. The Twins have done well against southpaws this year hitting .264 as opposed to .232 against righties. In the last ten games that average has ballooned to .292 against left handers which has to be a concern for Kazmir and the Indians.
Starting Pitchers: When handicapping a baseball game it is imperative to take a look at the starting pitchers.I have already covered Kazmir so now time to look at Kevin Correia who will be starting for the Twins. The team is 4-1 in his last five outings and he is 3-1 in his last four starts. Not bad at all, but there are a few things that stand out when looking at run support. His one loss in the last four starts was on the road where he has an ERA of 3.68.
Hitting: When I look at hitting, the Tribe gives Kazmir 10 runs of support in his last three starts! This is huge in comparison to the Twins that just give over four runs a support for Corriea. Because the tribe gives Kazmir run support and Corriea will not pitch a complete game so the bullpen will also play a role.
Bullpen: Both teams used three relievers each in yesterday’s game so they may rely on starters longer in this game more to avoid over using their bullpen. Although Indians closer Chris Perez pitched yesterday he has only pitched one inning (last night) in the last six days so should still be available if needed today. The consensus is another area that I like to take a peek at.
Consensus: A quick look at the consensus for this game 60% of the public are on the Minnesota Twins over the Tribe. There is a slight lean to the over 9 at 54%.
Umpire: The Umpire controls the strike zone so I have to look behind the plate as well. Tim Timmons is behind the plate and the over is 4-1 this year when he works which could mean a small strike zone. This heavily favors the Tribe. Home teams have always had a winning record at the end of the year with Timmons and with a big strike zone both starters will have to pitch more and won’t go deep which means the bullpen will play a big role.
Trends: Trends play a role too. This is a big one. The Twins are 0-13 since April 28, 2011 within 20 cents of pick em, after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $1305 when playing against.
I could go on and on with all of the tools, but I have made my pick.
Don’t forget to take a look at the tools section and sportsbooks to get the best line.
Indians 7 Twins 4 (play Indians +100)