10/27/2014 06:33 PM
2014 Breeders Cup
I have already spent hours looking at horses, trends, write ups, races and so on. I usually watch a few TV specials to see if there is anything I did not pick up on, but this year is tough with work. I may be out of town starting Wednesday and who knows how computer access or Wi-Fi access will be. Here is an early start for Friday races.
I will try to have Saturdays up soon. Still have tons of paper work to look over for all the races though. I do like watching the TVG Special for these days, but again, may not have access to the channel or a decent Wi Fi for computer.
This is the 2nd year in a row for the Breeders Cup to be held at Santa Anita Race Course, and with that we have learned a few key aspects from last year. The two main things to remember are; the European horses did VERY well on the turf and the local horses did very well on the Santa Anita Race course. I am never a big fan of horses traveling cross country to race, I think more so than not they do not perform well. I am a big fan for the angle “horse for the course.” Every track is different and with some tracks still having all weather surfaces it is hard to get a true reading on a horse. Some tracks are going back to true dirt (Keenland, I think it is more for hosting the Breeders Cup than anything).
I see a few horses already that I like. Hoping to single one or two and possibly 3 races for a PICK 6 ticket. Singling one race or even 2 and possibly 3 gives us a chance to ALL in other race.
JUVENILE TURF - Last 6 winners of this race have made their last start overseas, not going to go against a figure like that. WAR ENVOY won last race out and is from a top notch European trainer. AKTANBANTY finished just behind WAR ENVOY with traffic trouble. Nothing wrong here. COMMEMORATIVE has been improving with each race and has a 109 buyer against grade 3 level competition overseas. Has a good jockey and trainer. LUCK OF THE KITTEN has a race of the surface resulting in a win and 95 buyer. Long shot in here..IMPERIA. Horse has improved his mile by 4 seconds (good course to firm) if Costellano sticks could be major upset.
DIRT MILE – Favorites are 0-7 in this race and the horse I like is the favorite, go figure. I don’t think GOLDENCENTS loses this race. Loves the track and has had great training FED BIZ had a monster work over the track recently, 4F in 46.80 and has split race wins with GOLDENCENTS. Most recently was 2nd to Shared Belief on this surface. Long Shot of this field is BIG BANE THEORY , turf horse making first start on dirt, but he ran a 115 on very firm turf course at SA, if he takes to the surface it is bombs away. That is a big IF.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF - Another race where favorites are 0-6. This is a wide open race. There is no clear cut favorite and I think you may get 4-1 on any favorite at post time.SUNSET GLOW is stretching out for the first time. Never been worse than 2nd in career. 5 starts -3 wins – 2 places. CONQUEST HARLANATE is a Canadian horse with 3 consecutive wins at Woodbine. HER EMMYNENCY has a good looking win last time out over the SA course and if red hot Talamo sticks, could be a pay day. Long Shot of the race SOVILIERE – Chad Brown trained horse who stretches out for first time, but has won all of her European races that were on a firm course and did so with closing kick. European horses do well on SA firm course.
DISTAFF - 43% of the favorites win this race. Toughest race on the card last year and it was a great race to watch. The absence of BEHOLDER this race becomes a lot tougher. BEHOLDER was training like a monster and just loves the SA race course. The favorite I think will be UNTAPABLE and there is no reason she should not be. Just a great horse with 5 grade 1 wins. Only mark I put on her is her only race on the SA course and she didn’t finish, she was eased when she was out of it. Now, was it the fast surface that caused her to run poor, she won the prior races, then came in 3rd next race and won the next 5 after that, goes to Monmouth park and runs poorly again. Monmouth is yet another speed heavy track and next race at Parx she wins again.
IOTOPA has had her best buyers at SA with a 109 and 111. She lost to BEHOLDER on this track coming in 3rd, but she beat Grace Hall in June by 10 lengths. CLOSE HATCHES is a phenomenal horse whose trainer has won the race 5 times. Ran this race last year and lost to BEHOLDER. No reason this horse can’t repeat the effort. Long Shot - TIZ MIDNIGHT has had a bullet work going 5 furlongs in 59.00 on the course, lost to BEHOLDER ¾ length last out on the course, but ahead of IOTOPA. Broke maiden here, trains here and lives here. Baffert trains this horse as well.
Wagers for Friday are as follows……. Exacta boxes are based on $2 wager ($12). I personally may up them to $5 boxes if I do well early.
Juveniles turf - exacta box COMMEMERATIVE – AKTANBANTY – WAR ENVOY
SuperFecta box same with LUCK OF THE KITTEN or IMPERIA.
(Could box all 5 depending on your budget $1 is $120. Obviously .50 cents is $60).
DIRT MILE - exacta box GOLDENCENTS – FED BIZ- BIG BANE THEORY.
$20 win FED BIZ
JUVENILE FILLIES AND TURF - - exacta box SOVILIERE - CONQUEST HARLANATE - HER EMMYNENCY
Try a triple as well.
DISTAFF - exacta box CLOSE HATCHES – TIZ MIDNIGHT – IOTOPA. Going against UNTAPABLE based on the speed course. She beats me, she beats me…so be it.
PICK 4 being as if we are not made of money…….if you can get a few people together to do a pick 4 that would be great. I am basing this pick 4 on .50 cents. COST OF $77
COMMEMERATIVE – AKTANBANTY – WAR ENVOY w/ GOLDENCENTS – FED BIZ w.
ALL w. CLOSE HATCHES – TIZ MIDNIGHT.