04/30/2015 11:47 AM
I have been going over the horses just a bit more and I was leaning towards DORTMUND for just a bit and then on Tuesday I watched the Arkansas Derby to see how FAR RIGHT closed in the race, and then something caught my eye; the leader of the race in the Arkansas Derby had a 8 length lead over AMERICAN PHAROAH at one point, running the first ¼ in .22.9 and the half in .46.3. I had this thought that AP was the leader, but he rated and then just took off which was even more impressive than I first remembered
Horses usually run best with the 3rd race of the form cycle, well this is AP’s third race since the layoff and as I mentioned earlier, he has yet to be truly ridden or shown the whip. Someone is going to go for the lead and run a .22 and change. EL KABIER could go for it from the break with Calvin Borel riding, he won aboard him on the Churchill Track in the Kentucky Juvenile going wire to wire. He is between DORTMUND and FIRING LINE. This to me is interesting because DORTMUND and FIRING LINE have gone nose to nose twice and there is a possibility they go at it again. This could lead to them burning each other out. Both like the front end and if EL KABIER does it again on the same track it could be interesting. AMERICAN PHAROAH has the 18 post which I think is great. I think he just tries to stay out of trouble and traffic probably try to get as close to the rail group without getting in the mix til about the ¾ pole and then he is going to be let out and Espinoza is going to say “catch me if you can” and nobody will keep up. I don’t think this horse can be caught. I really don’t, and I think we are going to see a win by more than 5 or 6 lengths possibly more.
Battle comes for place and there is no reason not to think DORTMUND isn’t the horse to be there either. He has been battle tested in races and has come back in mid stretch to beat horses. He is HUGE and won’t be pushed around on the track. Question is, is he going to go for the lead or rate and try and pass in the stretch? As I mentioned before, he may hook up with FIRING LINE and EL KABIER and they could burn themselves out. He is a dam good horse. Does CARP DIEM, who got a bad bad draw, keep doing what his is doing and stick around with his race style? There is nothing that says he can’t. Horse has done nothing wrong and he too is coming into his 3rd race of the form cycle, primed to make best race, but he will have to have a very fast break and stay out of trouble. Hard thing in the post. MUBTAAHIJ is just an unknown commodity. History says no, but this horse is such a talent and an enigma in this race. Just not sold on this horse, I have been moving more and more away from him the past few days.
FIRING LINE who gave DORTMUND all he can handle twice, is a scary horse. The only concern is 1 ¼ distance for him. He may go out front and burn himself out for the stretch run with DORTMUND and EL KABIER.
FROSTED AND TENCENDURE both ran buyers of their lives in the same race, I think that had to be a track bias even the 3rd place finisher in EL KABIER had his best buyer on that day. Maybe the track was cold and had just enough stiffness to it to get traction, just odd the 3 horses run their best buyers on the same day on the same track in the same race. UPSTART has done nothing wrong and his buyers are right up there with the best in the field with a 108.
The battle for third, I am going to use those who can close and I think FAR RIGHT got a great draw to be in the 20 hole. This horse was not going to go for the lead any way, he was going to dart for the rail right a away, now he can shoot over at his pace and settle in into he is ready to run. He has Mike Smith riding and he is one of the best big race day riders. Horse has never been worse than 3rd in 9 races. He will pass those tiring in the stretch .
I am going to divvy up just about $100 on the race.
DORTMUND, FIRING LINE [B](may put FAR RIGHT in here which would add $8 to ticket)
MUBATAAHIJ, DORTMUND, FIRING LINE, CARP DIEM, BOLO, WAR FRONT, FAR RIGHT, UPSTART, DANZIG MOON[/B][/B][/B][/B]
Cost of $16. (you could do ALL for show for $26 ticket and cover yourself)
DORTMUND, FIRING LINE, CARP DIEM
DORTMUND, MUBTAAHIJ, CARP DIEM, FIRING LINE, FAR RIGHT
DORTMUND, MUBTAAHIJ, CARP DIEM, FAR RIGHT, FIRING LINE, MATERIALITY[/B]
If AMERICAN PHAROAH goes off at 2-1 or higher I am going with a win bet. $50 WIN AMERICAN PHAROAH
If he is under 2-1 I will use the money on an exacta box of
$2 EXACTA AMERICAN PHAROAH/ALL and ALL/ AMERICAN PHAROAH
$10 Exacta straight
AMERICAN PHAROAH/FAR RIGHT Going for the bomb like the past 2 years to come in 2nd.
I really think there is good chance DORTMUND, FIRING LINE and EL KABIER hook up in a battle and they will falter in the stretch. CARPE DIEM will need a good ride with 2 hole, if he does, he will get a piece. MATERIALITY got a bad 3 post and for an inexperienced horse it is trouble. He will need racing luck. I do think it all sets up for AMERICAN PHAROAH to find his groove, stay out of trouble and he is let loose near top of the stretch and gone with day light between him and the next horse. I will tell you now, he wins the Preakness. Sets up perfect for him. Belmont will be the true test.
These are my thoughts on the race. If you have your own, stick with them. Have fun.
Fun bet – OAKS/DERBY DOUBLE