anyone with their lock of the year ? I'm Listening !! leaning towards The Pack -6' vs. San Diego
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anyone with their lock of the year ? I'm Listening !! leaning towards The Pack -6' vs. San Diego
Are you ready for some football. Another great week but shit the bed on Sunday. I guess with the Lions losing it caused a ripple effect with the express. lol Good Luck tonight. Leaning towards the over as well but just a lean. NFL NEW JERSEY JETS -6
Already posted a few for today and here are a couple more. Check the thread for plays posted earlier this week. Will probably be rolling with Detroit tonight in MLB but not sure since its an elimination game for them. GL COLLEGE FOOTBALL MICHIGAN STATE -2 OREGON -13 OREGON STATE -2
Have a great night guys and gals
Week 6 NFL schedule Rams (0-4) @ Packers (5-0)-- Not only is St Louis off to horrific 0-4 start, its fifth year in row starting 0-2, their top seven CBs are all out hurt, so good luck stopping prolific Packer passing attack that saw 12 different guys catch passes in comeback win at Atlanta Sunday nite. Green Bay scored 42-49 points in its two home games so far- they're 4-1 vs spread and converted 18 of last 28 third down plays. Rams covered last four post-bye games but have been useless so far this season, with three losses by 12+ points- they've scored one TD in each game this year. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-8-1 against spread. In their last four games, Pack outscored opponents 73-23 in second half. Jaguars (1-4) @ Steelers (3-2)-- Pittsburgh is banged up, have turnover ratio of minus-11 (only two takeaways in five games), but they're still 3-2, with wins by 25-21 points in only home games- they're 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite. Jacksonville lost its last four games, scoring four TD's on 48 drives, with 20 3/outs- they lost road games 32-3 at the Jets and 16-10 on rainy day in Charlotte. Jags are actually 4-1 in last five series, 5-1 in last six visits here, with last visit a 31-27 win in '97 playoffs. Steelers are 6-13 vs spread last 19 games as double digit favorite. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 4-6, 2-4 on foreign soil. Jaguars are 0-5 against the pointspread this season. Eagles (1-4) @ Redskins (3-1)-- Road team won seven of last nine series games; Iggles won four of last five visits here, including 59-28 Monday night thrashing LY when Vick ran amuck, but that seems like long time ago now. Philly is 3-7 in last ten pre-bye games; they're 3-8 as pre-bye favorite. Washington are off to good start thanks to solid defense; they've allowed only two TDs on foes' last eight red zone drives. Redskins lost their last three post-bye games by average score of 35-18. Struggling Philly allowed 29.8 ppg in losing last four ballgames (15 TDs on 45 drives) but part of that is failures by offense (11 turnovers last three games, minus-9 TO ratio). Over is 4-1 in Eagle games this season. 49ers (4-1) @ Lions (5-0)-- Two Cinderellas bang heads here, with Lions off of first Monday night home game in 10 years. 49ers are +10 in turnovers, Lions +7, but Detroit's win Monday when they were -1 in turnovers is good sign for them. SF allowed only two TDs on 34 drives in last three games. Detroit won its two home games, 48-3/24-13, with nine TDs on 24 drives. NFC North clubs are 9-5 vs spread in non-division games, 4-2 as home favorites. NFC West dogs are 5-8-1. 49ers are 12-1 in last 13 series tilts, winning last seven, all by 6+ points. Niners are 1-6 in last seven pre-bye games, with five of six losses by 8+ points. Both teams are playing with supreme confidence-- interesting game. Bills (4-1) @ Giants (3-2)—Huge red flag for Giants are 177-156-145 rushing yards they’ve allowed in last three games. In their three wins, Giants converted 16 of 40 (40%) on 3rd down- in their two losses, 2-22 (9.1%). Buffalo has won turnover battle in every game, and is +11 for season; none of their five games have been closer than 11 points at half, with trailing team winning three of last four. Giants are 7-10 vs spread in last 17 games vs AFC teams, 7-3 in last ten games as single digit favorite. Buffalo lost its last 11 pre-bye games (3-8 vs spread); Giants won six of last eight pre-spread tilts, but are just 1-4 in last five games as pre-bye favorite. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo games this season, 3-1-1 in Giant games. Panthers (1-4) @ Falcons (2-3)— Disappointing Falcons are 1-4 vs spread, with only wins by 35-31/30-28 scores- they’re 15-6-1 vs spread in last 22 games as home favorite, 16-4-1 in last 22 as single digit faves. Atlanta won four of last five series games, with all wins by 8+ points; Carolina lost last three visits here, by 17-8-21 points, as Falcons won both series meetings 31-10 LY. Carolina covered three of its four losses, with no setbacks by more than 7 points; Panthers lost road games 28-21/34-29- this is their first game on artificial turf. Falcons were outscored 40-6 in second half the last two weeks; they’ve lost field position struggle four games in row. Average total in Panthers’ last four visits here, 52.3. Colts (0-5) @ Bengals (3-2)—Since 2006, Bengals are 7-19-1 vs spread as single digit favorite. Cincy scored 22+ points in four of five games, winning field position battle in all five. Colts’ last four losses are all by 8 or less points- they led at half in last three games, but were outscored 44-14 in second half. Painter has played better than expected in his two starts, averaging 7.5/10.3 yards/pass attempt. Indy allowed 192-194 rushing yards last two games. Bengals are 3-6 SU in last nine pre-bye games; since 1990, they’re 3-5 as pre-bye favorite. Indy is 12-3 in last 15 series games, winning last seven, all by 6+ points- they’ve won eight of last visits here, a short 114-mile drive southeast on I-74. Texans (3-2) @ Ravens (3-1)—Since 2000, Baltimore is an amazing 33-9 vs spread as a non-divisional home favorite, which they are here. Houston allowed 7-13-10 points in its wins, 40-25 in losses- they’ve got tough task here vs Raven squad that scored 35-37-34 points in its three wins, although defense did score three TDs in last game, while QB Flacco floundered vs Jet defense. Baltimore won eight of last nine post-bye games, covering last six as a post-bye favorite; they’re 4-0 in this series, with three wins by 4 or less points, or in OT; they won 34-28 in OT at Reliant in LY’s meeting. Texans lost 16-15 in only visit here six years ago. All four Raven games went over total; four of five Houston games stayed under. Texans have only four TDs on last 14 red zone drives. Browns (2-2) @ Raiders (3-2)— Oakland is favored for first time this season; Browns are underdog for first time this year- they’ve scored 17 or less points in three of four games this year- their two losses are by 10-18 points. Over last decade, favorite is 9-1 vs spread in Cleveland’s post-bye games, with Browns 1-5 as post-bye underdog. Over last 6+ years, Browns are 14-11-1 as non-divisional road dogs; over last 4+ years, they’re 14-9 as single digit underdogs. Over last 8+ years, Oakland is 23-42-1 vs spread at home, 6-17 when favored. Raiders are 3-10-1 vs spread in game following their last 14 wins. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 1-3. Three of four Cleveland games went over the total. Cowboys (2-2) @ Patriots (4-1)—All four Dallas games were decided by 4 or less points, with Pokes splitting pair of 27-24 decisions on road. Cowboys are 5-3 in last eight games as road underdog. Patriots scored 30+ points in every game so far (20 TDs on 53 drives, no TDs on defense/special teams)- they’re 11-6-1 in last 18 games as home favorite, 16-9-1 in game following their last 26 wins. Cowboys are 15-4 in last 19 post-bye games, winning five of last six, covering three of last four as post-bye dog. New England is 8-3 as pre-bye favorite, winning 35-7/41-14 in game before last two byes. Patriots have four TD’s on five game-opening drives, Dallas has two TDs and FG on four opening drives. Overall, over is 4-1 in Patriot games, 3-1 with Dallas. Saints (4-1) @ Buccaneers (3-2)—Third week in row on road for Saints, who are 6-3 in last nine visits here, winning 38-7/31-6 in last two. Road team won five of last seven series games. NO scored 30+ points in four of five games this year, and won the fifth game by 13 points, only time this year they lost field position. Bucs are 4-14-1 vs spread in last 19 home games; what do you make of a team that lost 48-3 last week? They’re 1-10 vs spread in last 11 games as home underdog. Home dogs are 5-3 vs spread in divisional games this season. Saints converted 44 of 75 (58.7%) on 3rd down this year, big reason why they score lot of points- they either scored TD or tried FG on 33 of 52 drives this season, Bucs only 18 of 51. New Orleans is 4-1 and they haven’t won turnover battle in any game yet this year. Vikings (1-4) @ Bears (2-3)— Minnesota had double digit lead at half in four of five games, but only finished one of the four games out- they were outscored 87-22 in second half of games. Bears lost three of last four games, and needed TDs on special teams and defense to get the one win, 34-29. Chicago won last three series games, taking 27-13/40-14 decisions LY. Vikings lost nine of last ten visits to Windy City, losing last three by 7-6-14 points. Chicago is 3-9-1 vs spread in its last 13 games as home favorite; home side covered four of their five games this year. Minnesota big win last week needs context; the three first quarter TDs they scored came on drives of 18-24-25 yards, with two of three drives set up by takeaways. Three of Bears’ last four games stayed under total. Dolphins (0-4) @ Jets (2-3)— Former Panther QB Moore gets first Miami start with Henne out. Gang Green is off 0-3 road trip; offense has bullseye on chest via fans after WRs complained about playcalling, then Mason was traded away. Visitor won six of last seven series games; Miami won four of last five in series, including last three here by 7-5-4 points. Dolphins are 18-8 vs spread in last 26 road games, 19-9-2 in last 30 games as road underdog. Jets are 9-16-1 in last 26 games as a home favorite. Miami is 4-9 in last 13 post-bye games, 4-3 in last seven as post-bye underdog. Average total in last four series games is 45.8. Dolphins’ losses this year are by 14-1-10 points; they have only three TDs on 30 drives in last three games.
Since I will be out of commission for most of tomorrow here are a few plays for the week in college football COLLEGE FOOTBALL THURSDAY USC -3 Also playing some on money line SATURDAY FLORIDA ATLANTIC -3 Also playing some on money line GEORGIA -11 MISSISSIPPI STATE +3
Another winner last night. Not gonna be around much the next couple of days with some surgery going on so do your best not to miss me and pick some winners. Wednesday's Lucky Eleven: Random mid-week thoughts....... 11) What is TCU basketball coach Jim Christian telling his recruits? First of all, the Horned Frogs aren’t any good in Mountain West, then they were moving to deep waters of the faraway Big East, but now, without coming within a year of their first Big East game, they’ve already jumped to the Big 12, whose waters are equally deep but the travel is way easier. Christian is going to have a hard time keeping his job for long in that league, unless he suddenly becomes a bigtime recruiter. 10) For my handicapping purposes, it’s be great if every league was ten teams and played a home/home series like the Big X is doing this year. Pac-12 isn’t doing it anymore; looks like 12 teams is going to wind up more the norm. Anything is better than 16-team leagues. 9) When the NBA re-appears, they should re-engineer the whole league. Cut the schedule to 64 teams to create a better product so teams can occasionally practice. Cut ticket prices. Make league more middle class friendly, or at least somewhat so. Awful lot of empty seats at these games the last few years. I know, this has zero chance of ever happening. 8) This will sound silly coming from someone who gets tired running to the mailbox, but do people realize that running a marathon is unhealthy? Its bad for you to run that far all at once- the guy in Greek mythology, who ran the original 26 miles to save the Athenian Army in Battle of Marathon? He dropped dead after finishing his run. A 35-year old fireman in Chicago died running a marathon Sunday. He freakin' died. ‘nuff said. 7) Since 2001, NFL favorites of more than 7 points are 89-90 vs spread in Games 1-5, 161-200-3 in Games 6-14, 47-49-1 in Games 15-16. 6) If I managed a big league baseball team, I’d want a staff member monitoring the game on TV, just in case they could pick something up from TV that you couldn’t see from the dugout. Never hurts to have an extra pair of eyes. 5) Buffalo Bills are already +11 in turnovers; they’ve had a positive ratio in every game so far this season. Want to see how they do in a game when they don’t win the turnover battle. 4) NFL red flags: Lions have 21 penalties for 169 yards in their last two games……..Texans have been outscored in the second half of every game this season. 3) Very surprised to read that baseball teams are going to be more vigilant on monitoring the conditioning of their players during the offseason. Guess my surprise is that its necessary- you’d think with the big money these guys make, they’d keep themselves in shape year-round. 2) If you use trends to handicap the NFL, one of the big obstacles to success is deciding when a team has broken through and rendered their past useless. Looks like the Lions are doing that this season, and the Bills might be too, though still not 100% sold on Buffalo. Detroit is a nasty team with some good offensive weapons. They’re legitimately good. 1) As always, the real loser in the NBA debacle is the little guy, the beer vendor, waiter, bus driver, limo driver, ticket seller who needs his job to make ends meet, but might lose it because millionaires can’t agree on how to split the pie. Just terrific.
This weekend has been tough especially yesterday, any thoughts for SNF? Green Bay can afford a loss and a Falcons win woud boost moral. A very likely senario, Falcons gain early lead and then comes back and Green Bay wins but does not cover. Falcons +6
Week 4 NFL schedule Chiefs (1-3) @ Colts (0-4)—Banged-up Indy on short work week after strong effort came up short Monday night in Tampa; Painter played lot better than expected, but Colts still have only five TD’s on 44 drives, with 17 3/outs- they’re very weak favorite here, vs Chief club that got first win last week. KC turned ball over just once in last two games (+2) after turning it over nine times (-7) in first two games- they’ve scored only four TD’s on 42 drives, with 15 3/outs. Chiefs are 9-20 in last 29 games decided by 7 or less points- they’ve covered five of last seven as a pre-bye underdog. Colts are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning last three by average score of 19-9; Chiefs lost last five visits here, scoring just 12.6 ppg. Cardinals (1-3) @ Vikings (0-4)—Larry Fitzgerald comes home with Redbird club that lost last three games by total of 8 points, visiting 0-4 Viking squad that has three losses by 5 or less points, despite leading three of four games by 10+ points at half. Cardinals lost eight of last ten in series, dropping last six visits here, with last win in 1977- they lost 27-24 in OT here LY. Arizona is 3-7 in last 10 games decided by 7 or less points; they’re just 6-26 on 3rd down last two games- they need to develop an option other than Fitzgerald, since teams blanket him in key spots. Vikings don’t have a takeaway in last two games- they outscored foes 37-0 in first half of their two home games, but got outscored 50-6 after intermission. Eagles (1-3) @ Bills (3-1)—Team that won last three Buffalo games trailed by 11+ points at half; Bills trailed 21-3/21-10 at half in two home games, but won both, outscoring opponents 59-24 in second half. Iggles might be glad to get away from restless home fans after three straight losses- they were outscored 36-6 in second half last two weeks, blowing 23-3 lead at home last Sunday. Eagles’ allowed eight TD’s, two FG’s on ten red zone drives, which is bad- they had only two TD’s on seven red zone drives last week, missing two chip shot FG’s. This is Philly’s first visit to Orchard Park since ’03- they lead series 6-5, with average total in last five meetings, 29.2. Bills (+7) won turnover battle in all four games, scoring defensive TD in each of last two games, but they’ve converted only 12 of 36 on 3rd down last three games. Raiders (2-2) @ Texans (3-1)—Hamstring injury to Andre Johnson big blow to Texan offense. Houston won five of six series games, with all five wins by 7+ points; Oakland lost 30-17/29-6 in two visits here, last of which was in ’09. Texans are 5-2 in last seven games as home favorite, winning 34-7/17-10 at home this year, allowing two TD’s on 20 drives at Reliant- they’ve allowed total of 30 points in three points, gave up 40 in only loss, in Superdome. Raiders split pair of 3-point decisions on road this year- since ’07, they’re 19-15-1 as road dogs, but in last three games, they’ve allowed 38-24-31 points. Houston is 4-9-2 vs spread in game that followed their last 15 wins. Curious to see if Texans (180 rushing yards vs Steelers last week) can run ball vs Oakland defense (allowed 133.3 rushing yards/game over last three weeks). Saints (3-1) @ Panthers (1-3)—New Orleans won/covered its last three games by 17-7-13 points; they’ve converted 32 of 58 (55.2%) on 3rd down this year, which is why they’ve run 34 more plays than their opponents- since 2006, they’re 13-9 as road favorite, and are 15-8-1 in last 24 games as single digit favorites. Carolina passed for 403-404-374 yards in three non-monsoon games, but the rainy game is only won they’ve won; panthers’ losses this year are by 7-7-5 points, as Newton grows into starting QB job. Saints won three of last four meetings, winning 16-14/34-3 LY, after losing six of previous seven series games- they’re 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in divisional games this season, home dogs 4-2. Saints scored 13 TD’s, tried 14 FG’s, have struggled little in red zone (4.50, 15th). Three of four Carolina games went over the total. Bengals (2-2) @ Jaguars (1-3)— Jags are 9-2 in last 11 series games, with four of last six meetings decided by 4 or less points, but Jacksonville is struggling on offense with rookie Gabbert under center, scoring three TDs, trying six FGs on 45 drives, with 16 3/outs. In its last three games, Jax is just 10-41 on 3rd down. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Bengal games this year, with last three decided by total of 10 points. Cincy lost nine of last 12 games decided by 7 or less points, but they’re 3-0 vs spread as dogs this year and 11-6 vs spread in game following their last 17 wins- they’re just 7 for last 33 on 3rd down, with rookie Dalton under center- teams with rookie QBs generally struggle (which makes Newton look that much better). AFC North teams are 4-1 vs spread as non-divisional underdogs. All four Jaguar games stayed under the total. Titans (3-1) @ Steelers (2-2)—Roethlisberger left Reliant Stadium Sunday with a boot on his foot; he has deep bruise, probably a stress fracture too, but he’ll play. Problem is Steelers have been outrushed in three of four games, were outsacked 8-1 last two weeks, but they did win only home game 24-0- they’re 21-18-1 in last 40 games as home favorite. Titans allowed 16 or less points in all four games, giving up only five TDs on 42 drives- they’re given up only 62.7 rushing yards/game the last three weeks. Steelers won three of last four series games, winning 13-10ot/19-11 last two years; Titans lost three of last four visits here, losing by 27-27-3 points- they lost their pre-bye game 59-0/33-25 the last two years. AFC South teams are 4-2 as non-divisional underdogs; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4. Hasselbeck averaged 7.8+ yards/pass attempt in each of last three games. Seahawks (1-3) @ Giants (3-1)—Home side won nine of last ten series games; Seahawks lost last five visits here, got beat 44-6/41-7 in last two games with Giants. Seattle lost its pre-bye game 27-3/20-3 last two years; they’re 3-15 vs spread in last 18 road games, losing 33-17/24-0 in first two road games this year. Giants scored 28-29-31 points in winning last three games; they’re just 6-11 vs spread in last 17 home games, but did win/cover home opener (28-16 over Rams) this year. Big Blue is 21-13 in last 34 games decided by more than 7 points- they’re 26-15 vs spread in game following their last 41 wins. Seattle is 12-27 in last 39 games decided by more than 7 points- their last two games, both at home, were decided by total of five points. NFC West teams are 4-7-1 vs spread as non-divisional underdogs. Buccaneers (3-1) @ 49ers (3-1)—Niners were down 23-3 in 3rd quarter at Philly last week, rallied to win, as Harbaugh has instilled mental toughness needed to win close games- they outscored last two opponents 34-8 in second half. Long road trip for Tampa Bay club on short work week after escaping Monday night with win over Colts; Bucs beat Minnesota 24-20 in only previous road game, after being down 17-0 at half- they’ve trailed at half in three of four games. Home side won seven of last eight Buc-49er games; Tampa Bay lost 11 of 13 visits here, winning 21-0 LY. 49ers’ last three games were decided by total of nine points- they’re already +8 in turnovers, with 3-2-3-3 takeaways and only three giveaways. Don’t forget that in only loss, 49ers led Dallas 14-0 just before half. Three of Niners’ four games went over total. Jets (2-2) @ Patriots (3-1)— Ryan is 3-2 vs Belichick, beating him here 28-21 in LY’s playoffs, but banged-up Jets are playing on road for third week in row, following losses at Oakland/Baltimore, when they allowed 34 points both games (gave up 346 rushing yards last two games). In 56 plays on field last week, Jet offense was outscored 21-3 by Raven defense. 48 of Patriots’ last 66 wins are by more than seven points- they’ve already scored 17 TD’s (on 42 drives) but have also given up 1,910 yards, as all four foes gained 448+ total yards. Welker already has 40 catches for 610 yards, outrageous numbers; Jets did hold last three foes to 3.4/5.3/4.7 ypa; we’ll see what happens here. Over is 3-1 in both team’s games this season. Average total in Jets’ last four visits here is surprisingly high 51.8. Divisional home favorites are just 4-6 vs spread this season. Chargers (3-1) @ Broncos (1-3)—Denver’s pass defense allowed 7.2/7.8/9.7 yards/pass attempt last three weeks to Dalton/Hasselbeck/Rodgers, could be major problem vs Rivers here. San Diego is 8-2 in last ten series games, with average total in last six 58.7- seven of last nine series games were decided by 11+ points. Bolts won four of last five visits here- they’ve scored 32+ points in five of last six series games, but lost in Foxboro in only road game so far this year. Chargers are 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorite, but their defense appears to be improved, holding last three opponents under 100 yards on ground. Over last decade, Broncos are 8-6 as home underdog; they have only one FG to show for five drives this year that started in enemy territory; before getting crushed in Lambeau last week, all three Denver games had been decided by 3 or less points. Packers (4-0) @ Falcons (2-2)—Pack pounded Atlanta 48-21 in playoffs here LY, on way to Super Bowl title; teams split last 12 meetings, with four of last seven decided by exactly 3 points. Green Bay is on serious roll, winning all four games this year by 7+ points- they’re 11-7 in last 18 games as road favorite, 24-14-1 in game following their last 39 wins, but this is their first game this year on artificial turf. Falcons not yet firing on all cylinders; they don’t have a sack in last three games. Even in last week’s win, they let 27-7 lead turn into 30-28 nailbiter at end in Seattle, but they’ve covered four of last five as home underdog. Green Bay already has 10 TD drives of 80+ yards- that’s a lot. Over is 3-1 in both team’s games so far this season. NFC non-divisional underdogs are 4-2 vs spread this year. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4. Bears (2-2) @ Lions (4-0)—First Monday Night Football home game in decade for Motor City, which is fired up over Lions’ 4-0 start. Upstart Detroit won last eight games that counted, despite trailing 20-0/20-3 at half of last two games; they’ve outscored last three opponents 85-13 in second half, with defense sparking rally with two TDs of its own in Dallas last week, but they’ve lost six in row, 10 of last 12 to Bears, with three of last five setbacks by 5 or less points. Chicago won five of last six visits here; their shaky OL (allowed 15 sacks) could have trouble with crowd noise in dome. Bears ran ball 31 times for 224 yards last week, after running it total of 51 times for 161 yards in first three games. Detroit allowed average of 132 rushing yards in last three games. Average total in last five series games is 43.2- all four Detroit games this season went over total.
Posted my plays yesterday for college football and really feel like they are solid and gonna stick with them. May post another later today if it warrants. Good Luck and enjoy the weekend!!