04/10/2013 12:03 PM
MLB Cliff Notes - Wednesday
Reds at Cardinals: Bailey looked great against the Nationals, and I know that because they won the game 15-0 and we had Washington. I do wonder how much of that was the situation, and now he goes against a team that fared quite well against him. Westbrook threw a ton (116 to be exact) of pitches against the Giants, and the way the Giants have been hitting that's hard to do. Having said that, and given that it's a warm day game with a potentially decent breeze helping, it's hard not to like the over here. Tuesday's game and lineup pending, of course.
Pittsburgh at Arizona: Just saw the lines and was hoping Miley would be less, but against Sanchez I suppose it's only natural to be at lest -150. Perhaps the most impressive thing about this kid is that his numbers at home have actually been better than on the road, which in Chase is just not that easy. Sanchez ONLY walked one against the Dodgers, but in doing so he had to put the ball over the plate, and of course the Dodgers hit it. Rarely would I play a RL but this may be one of those rarely times. The Pirates are hitting .083 against LHP this season.
Colorado at San Francisco: Two of the most hittable pitchers facing each other, Francis outside of Coors Field he ONLY allowed the opposition to bat .292 last year. This could be where the Giants wake up at the plate, since most of them have hit him hard. Zito was impressive against the Cardinals, but he did give up a lot of flyball outs and threw over 100 pitches. He's fared reasonably well against most of the Rockies big bats, it's the little ones that have given him trouble. With a decent helping breeze to right you almost have to think this goes over 7.5, especially in a day game. I will wait for lineups, as we always should, but more so on day-after-night games.
Mets at Phillies: Kendrick has been one of those pitchers I have been wrong on more than right. Since the Royals lit him up one would assume the Mets would, especially given that the Mets hit RHP better than LHP. But, of course it won't be that easy because only Wright has hit him at all. He's hit Kendrick well, but will need SOME help. Hugh Hefner is the only pitcher (unless Medlen does) that's given up more than three runs to Miami, so one would think the Phillies would score. BUT, that was the Mets bullpen who gave it up, not Hugh. He did fare somewhat better, at least from an ERA standpoint, on the road last season. Very warm in Philadelphia on Wednesday night with a slight helping breeze, but at 8.5 an NL total really needs to stick out for me to play it. At this point I have no strong opinion on the side, although if the Mets pen is used much on Tuesday, I'd have to think about Philadelphia.
Atlanta at Miami: Interesting that perhaps the Braves best starter is the cheapest Atlanta has been this series. Stanton does have two bombs off the kid, but Giancarlo has been a bit lost lately. It's not teams simply pitching around him, either. Sanabia didn't give up runs to the Mets, but he did give up what I'd call an inordinate number of flyball outs. The Braves haven't seen the kid, so that could be advantage Marlins and a nice first five inning bet, perhaps. Obviously we trust the Braves pen a lot more, although Kimbrel did look almost hittable on Monday. This could be one of those "sooner or later" bets on the Fish, especially with that total tomorrow a half run higher than on Tuesday with essentially better pitchers.
Milwaukee at Chicago: Feldman is just the type of junk right handed pitcher that could give the Brewers issues, I would think. Certainly after the shelling and the number of pitches he threw in Atlanta, that'd be hard bet to make, though. But, given the lack of familiarity it's not out of the question. Lohse looked pretty good against the hot hitting D-backs, but the Cubs have had their way with him, and refer to earlier post where it's simply not possibly to take the Brewers and their bullpen on the road. Cubs and/or over.
Dodgers at Padres: Gave out the Padres on Tuesday as a twitter play, and see that they have the early lead. Billingsley is sneaky good, but he is coming of the DL to make his first start, which is typically an auto fade. However, he has owned San Diego and has been much better on the road over the years. Since Stults isn't going to over power people he's going to need to keep his 88 MPH fastball down. He's going to be a feast or famine pitcher, IMO. His outing against the Mets was exactly the type of game he needs to pitch, and that's getting ground ball outs, hence he'll need good defense behind him as well. He did beat the Dodgers in LA last season, but he's going to give up hits, that's just a given. As a home dog, essentially, with Chad coming off the DL, you have to at least give San Diego a look, and I do lean to the under here, especially if it goes to 7, which I think it might.
Toronto at Detroit: I did have an immediate lean to this over (again) but it is looking like cold and shitty weather in Detroit tomorrow. Today's game could have had even more runs, were it not for some ropes right at people and a great catch by Don Kelly (which was when I knew we were screwed). I have never been a big Porcello fan, and the Jays have torn him a new one, so given that Detroit had to use more relief pitchers than they wanted to, I lean Jays. Once bitten, twice shy. Buerhle was hit pretty hard by the Indians last week, and the Tigers have certainly seen plenty of him from his days with the White Sox. He's fared well against both Fielder and Miguel, but the rest of the Tigers, not so much. If this were at all a nice day, it looks like they'd score 15. The only thing keeping this at 8.5 is the weather, and part of me wonders if that's enough to keep the ball in the park tomorrow. But, as I type it's gone to 9 most places. At 9 O (+100) it's probably worth a look.