09/01/2012 12:15 AM
First off, let me just say, I am not wagering on the Boise State Game tonight. There are too many unknown variables at work here. Remember people, if you are betting your own money, you don't have to bet all the time. One of the surest signs you are an out of control gambler is when you bet for the sake of "having some of the action." I am passing on this game.
NC STATE vs. Tennessee
Two weeks ago I issued an advanced release on this game. I said to take Tennessee -3 pts. My main reasoning was the Vols have 9 returning starters on defense and 9 returning starters on offense. There will be a lot of experience for the Vols starting the season. The problem is that the starters returning from last season did not perform all that well last year. LSU, Alabama, Arkansas demolished them. Georgia, South Carolina had solid wins over them. On top of that they lost to Kentucky to end the season. It's like Bobby Bowden once said "Returning starters are of no value unless they are good. Who wants the same starters from a year ago when they had a losing record?"
Make no mistake about it, the SEC is the best conference in the USA. But looking at NC State, winning their last 3 regular season games and then a nice victory over Louisville in a bowl game, I think they have a definite chance of pulling a minor upset here. I like the home dog in this one now. There is great optimism at the UNC STate campus.
Whereas UT believes they will win, but if they don't, they are ready to hang Dooley from the highest tree. Pessimism moves quickly at Tennessee.
Admittedly a very tough game to analyze, as both teams tend to be a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type personality wise. I originally felt the athletic advantage and depth of UT would win this game for them, but I have had cause to change my mind. You have two 7-5 teams here come year end.
Take NC STATE +3 Pts