AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick - San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts Pick

The Indianapolis Colts are two games away from making the Super Bowl for the second straight season. With all of the attention on the New England Patriots, some people have forgotten that it is the Colts that are the defending Super Bowl Champs. The Colts had a bye last week while San Diego defeated Tennessee in a Wild Card game. SBG Global reports that early NFL betting has the public taking Colts at Home.

The win by San Diego last week was their first playoff win in 13 years. Although head coach Norv Turner did something Marty Schottenheimer could not, it will mean very little if the Chargers go to Indianapolis and lose. Last year the Chargers were the top seed in the AFC but let the game against New England slip away. This year the Chargers have the monkey off their back. "That first one's the hardest one," said Turner, "Just like when you start a game sometimes, that first score is the hardest one to get and then you get going. Hopefully this jump-starts all of us." The Chargers have gone 11-2 since a 1-3 start that included a 23-21 win over the Colts. Indianapolis had virtually everything go wrong for them in that game as Peyton Manning threw six interceptions and Adam Vinatieri missed a chip shot field goal that would have given Indianapolis the lead. The Chargers also beat the Colts in 2005. "I think they've definitely had our number the last couple of times we played them, but I don't think that will be the case Sunday," Indianapolis middle linebacker Gary Brackett said. The Colts should have won the first meeting this season and that was without many starters who are back. Receivers Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez and tight end Dallas Clark are the big key players who are back. Harrison has been out for quite a while but will start on Sunday.

SBG Global Current Line: Colts - 9 , Total 45.5

The Colts have third best offense in the NFL averaging 28.1 points per game. Manning recorded his eighth 4,000-yard passing season. Reggie Wayne had 104 catches for 1,510 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Colts can also run the ball with Joseph Addai who had 1,072 yards and 12 TDs. The Colts will be tested by a San Diego defense that played well in the first matchup. "I think they're going to take a different approach this game, we're going to take a different approach and go out there and see what happens," said linebacker Sean Merriman, "We're going to get their best shot and they're going to get ours and I think it's going to be a great game."

The Colts also have a defense and it was actually better than San Diego’s. The Colts had the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense, giving up only 16.4 points per game. The Colts have held five of their last seven opponents under 20 points and have NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders who had 132 tackles, 3.5 sacks and two interceptions. "We're no longer the no-name Colts defense. He's a game-changer," linebacker Tony Brackett said of Sanders. "But his presence gives us a comfort level, knowing he's going to be back there to clean up for us." The Colts will try and contain All-Pro running back LaDainian Tomlinson who had 1,474 yards and 15 TDs. The Chargers will be without All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates and that is a huge loss. This will be the second playoff meeting between Indianapolis and San Diego. The teams played in 1995 as the Colts beat the Chargers 35-20.

Here are the NFL betting stats for Sunday’s game. The Chargers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the AFC. The Chargers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. The Chargers are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog. The Chargers are 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games overall. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Indianapolis. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between the two teams.

The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games. The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. The Colts are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on turf. The Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. the AFC.

The Under is 5-0 in the Chargers last 5 games in January. The Over is 10-2-2 in the Chargers last 14 road games. The Under is 6-2-2 in the Chargers last 10 vs. the AFC. The Under is 5-1 in the Colts last 6 Divisional Playoff games. The Under is 5-1 in the Colts last 6 games in January. The Under is 5-1 in the Colts last 6 playoff games. The Over is 4-1 in the Colts last 5 games as a home favorite. The Under is 7-3 in the Colts last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Pick: Colts -9 5 units out of 5, for more NFL Picks discussion visit the NFL Betting Forum