AFC Championship Preview: San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots
Posted: Jan 18, 2008
By
SBGGlobal
Opening Line: Patriots - 15.5 , Total 51.5
Everyone in the NFL was sure that this week it would be the Indianapolis Colts playing the Patriots this week and not the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers upset the Colts on the road with feisty defense and the back ups doing a great job as some of the starters were hurt to include superstar LaDanian Tomlinson.
The injury report will be watched closely as the LaDanian Tomlinson and Phillip Rivers are both questionable for this game. Even with that being the case early on the action has been on the Chargers mainly because the Patriots have failed ATS in the last four straight.
The Patriots have avoided the injury bug this year and will be at full strength this week, but they do have some distractions. Wide receiver Randy Moss was linked in a civil case and there was a restraining order issued in that case. Randy Moss addressed this and claimed it would not be a distraction to the team.
SBG Global Current Line: Patriots -13.5 , Total 46.5
Analysis trends and pick:
The Latest rumor is that Rivers has a torn ACL and will have limited movement in the backfield. This is going to be a huge edge for the Patriots. That will allow them to stack the line to go against LT and will aid the pass rush knowing that Rivers will not be able to scramble. This is huge and it looks like Volek will be making an appearance in this game this weekend. The Patriot offense will have an advantage from this defense pressure. When the Patriots build a lead it will be difficult for the Chargers to mount an offense with the injuries and inexperience of Rivers. Once the Patriots start to pull away it could get ugly.
Trends:
When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as a Road team - Playing on grass surface - Coming off vs American Conference opponent - Coming off 1 over they are 4-15 ATS
When NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS team played as a -10.0 or more Favorite - After a conference game - Coming off vs American Conference opponent they are 8-3 ATS
Over the last eight playoff seasons, home teams with a winning percentage edge of .165 or more (16.5%) over their road opponent are 12-1 SU & 9-4 ATS (69.2 percent). (Patriots)
Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game are 44-30 ATS (59.4%) since '93 (Patriots)
Play On a team in Conference title game that won, but failed to cover last week.
Record – 10-4-1 71.4 percent (Patriots)
Pick: Patriots -11 5 units out of 5, for more NFL Picks discussion visit the NFL Betting Forum
