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2009 NFL Week 11 Picks

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It had to happen eventually. After a great run of five winning weeks in a row the super seven finished with a horrible 2-5 record. This brings the record on the season to 30-26. At four games over .500 this week looks promising. Week ten will provide the super seven with enough chances to get back on the winning track! 

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1) Thursday November 19th: Miami @ Carolina

The NFL hits the NFL Network for Thursday night when the Panthers tangle with the Dolphins. Miami has dropped seven in row ATS against non-conference competition and it is 1-8 ATS in Weeks 10-13. The Dolphins have had trouble defending the rush and the Panthers do well in that spot as they are 41-17 ATS versus teams allowing more than 24 PPG. The Dolphins have also floundered against excellent rushing teams (3-14 ATS) that average more than 150 YPG. The Panthers run all over the fish and keep winning! 
Play: Carolina -3 

2) Sunday November 22nd: Colts @ Ravens

The Colts are off the biggest win of the season and will run into a brick wall when they hit the Ravens. The Ravens need to win every game if they want to make a run at the playoffs and they are well rested after playing the lowly Browns. The Ravens are 36-13 ATS at home versus non-division rivals. They will be able to beat up a weak Indianapolis pass defense and get the win at home.  
Play: Ravens -1  

3) Sunday November 22nd: Bengals @ Oakland

The Bengals will have to try and put it together after a huge win against Pittsburgh. They have showed let down in the past and need to be awake on this west coast trip. The upstart Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and 6-14 as favorites of seven points or more. The Raiders may get better play if they bench Russell this week but the Bengals will approach this game like a scrimmage and will not get the cover. 
Play: Raiders +10 

4) Sunday November 22nd: Philly @ Chicago

This is it for the Bears if they want to make a run at the playoffs. They get the Eagles and they have struggled on the road losing to such teams as the Raiders. Chicago returns to the friendly confines of Soldier Field, where it has won six of seven and cashed five of seven. The Bears are 14-4 at home after scoring 10 points or less and 16-7 as home dogs off a straight up setback. The Bears get extra time to prepare and get the win. 
Play: Bears +3  

5) Sunday November 22nd: San Diego @ Denver

What a difference a few weeks make. The Chargers have bolted into this one on a winning streak while the Broncos are floundering after winning six straight to start the season. The Broncos will be without Kyle Orton and that could be trouble for Denver and company. Denver has struggled against division tenants at Invesco Field, failing to cash in eight of its last nine. The Straight Up winner is 22-1-4 ATS in the past 27 series scuffles. LT looks like he is young again and I will take the hotter team in this one and the points.
Play: Chargers +3 

6) Sunday November 22nd: Washington @ Dallas

I don’t make a point of dropping double digit chalk in the NFL but the boys are a solid play this week. Dallas has grabbed the green in 15 of 21 versus Washington. Dallas is 29-14 ATS at home in November and will rebound off a tough loss at Green bay. Washington has stumbled at a 15-4-1 pace after winning straight up as underdogs. In front of the home town crowd the Cowboys take down the redskins winning in blowout fashion! 
Play: Dallas -11 

7) Monday November 23rd: Tennessee @ Houston

Both of these teams may be a big surprise as Houston is better than most would think and the Titans worse. The Titans have played better since Vince Young took over but will have their hands full in Houston. The Texans are 12-7 ATS at home against division tenants and they have cashed six of nine after losing by three points or less.  The titans are 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning record and are in for a long game. The Texans will be fired up for a Monday night game and the Titans will have a hard time matching up on defense.  
Play: Texans -4.5


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