Kentucky Derby Picks

The 136th Kentucky Derby has a post time of just after 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, and horse racing fans from all corners of the earth will get together to watch the "Fastest Two Minutes in Sports." Here at Bang the Book though, we realize that not everyone can sit down and analyze which horses are ripe for the betting. That's why we're here, breaking down the Run for the Roses in hopes of finding you some major winners on the track at Churchill Downs!

What better place to start than the very top? On the far inside with the #1 post position, many think that Lookin At Lucky is the horse to beat in this field. Trainer Bob Baffert has himself a gem in this colt, as Lookin At Lucky has already won five stakes races in his career and has two other cashes in stakes runs as well. However, no horse has won from the rail since 1986 at the Derby. This is a tricky spot for Lookin At Lucky, because he may be lured into running too fast out of the blocks to avoid getting boxed into that rail position and shoved backwards. Can he run the full 1 1/4 miles at that point? We think not. Start by taking the favorite off of your board.

The good news at that point is that there should be a ton of money that hits the board if Lookin At Lucky stays off of it. We're not much for second favorite either, Sidney's Candy. Sure, this is a colt that proved that he could run on the synthetic surface of San Anita and really dominated the California races, but that doesn't mean that he is ready to go the full mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs. If this was a closing horse with some late speed, I would be more inclined to be on his side, but right now, it's hard to back a speed horse in a race that is traditionally won by closers and stalkers. There is better value on the board. Post position #20 and an inexperienced jockey isn't going to help matters either.

Let's immediately throw out a number of other colts as well from this equation. #19 Homeboykris has been a major, major underachiever since turning three years old, and he isn't going to factor in this race in all likelihood. We can add the horse just to his inside, #18 Backtalk to that list as well. #9 Make Music For Me would be an even better story than Mine That Bird was a year ago in this race, but in all probability, the last horse that snuck into the field of 20 isn't going to factor in this race.

We'd love to back #8 Dean's Kitten, but we've got something about not wanting to back horses that have run just one race on dirt in their lives and finished 34 lengths off of the pace...

Let's start getting into the real contenders in this race, shall we?

As previously mentioned, closers have had a nice history in this race of being able to come from off the pace right at the very end to make magic and steal the bed of roses. Keep a very, very close eye on #17 Dublin. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has had a great history at Churchill Downs, and he knows that his top three year old is perfectly trained and bred for this race. A favorite nearly every time he took the track prior to this, you can find a fantastic price on Dublin at 12-1 on the morning lines. Yes, much like Homeboykris, this is a colt that has underachieved in his career and had several near misses at the wire in stakes races, but he has proven to have the kick at the end of races to make a big difference.

We've also got our eye on #14 Mission Impazible, who has a fantastic post draw at #14. Trainer Todd Pletcher has never won the Kentucky Derby before, and many are overlooking the Louisiana Derby winner as a legitimate contender in this race. However, he has a fantastic pedigree with Unbridled and Unbridled's Song in his bloodline and shouldn't have an issue distance. Jockey Rajiv Maragh is exactly a known commodity either. But if Maragh can give Mission Impazible the perfect run, he could be another horse to come out of the parking lot to really shock in this race.

Super Saver is going to quickly become a horse du jour in this field thanks to the fact that he has jockey Calvin Borel as his mount. Borel has won two of the L/3 Derbies, and he is most known for making that incredibly gutsy move in between a pack of horses last year with Mine That Bird to pull off the stunning upset as the second longest shot ever to win this race. AP Indy and Seattle Slew are both in this horse's pedigree, which is always a solid sign. Super Saver finished on the board at both the Arkansas and Tampa Bay Derbies, and he could very well find his way there once again on Saturday by hanging on to his early speed.

Trying to pick out Paddy O'Prado in the field shouldn't be that hard. The #10 horse is a beautiful grey colt who is a complete unknown in this race. Paddy O'Prado is going to be praying for rain, as he is an Irish turf horse by nature and doesn't have much experience on the dirt. Stamina certainly won't be the issue, nor should his training. Even though Dale Romans isn't a "name" trainer, he is a champion here at Churchill Downs and must know exactly what he's doing to send out Paddy O'Prado against the rest of these three year olds. Jockey Kent Desormeaux knows what he's doing, and he's smart enough to let his horse stalk the leaders as oppose to chase them in the opening few furlongs. He'll make his move at some point though, and when he does, the rest of the horses in this field had better hope that Paddy O'Prado doesn't have the luck of the Irish on his side.

A long shot that we're keeping an eye on is #6 Stately Victor. Another horse with a relatively ideal post position, this horse should have the cleanest shot to drop back, stay out of trouble, yet still stay towards the inside for the first turn. Stately Victor was a highly touted two year old, but he has just never lived up to expectations. His run at the Blue Grass Stakes against a solid crop of colts was worth noting though, as he sprang the upset at over 20-1 in the race for the biggest cash in a Derby prep race.

Finally, we'll take a look at Conveyance, a horse that has never finished outside of the Top 2 in a race that he has run. With Holy Bull, Indian Charlie, Fleet Indian, and several other champion horses in his lineage, Conveyance has a bloodline that trainers and owners would drool over. This is a stalking horse that will be content to sit back in sixth, seventh, or eighth place for the first half of the race before he makes his move. Normally speaking, once Conveyance has reached the front of the field, he doesn't get caught unless it's right at the wire. That could all change on Saturday, but we tend to believe that his navigation of the 20 horse field could be the difference in who wins the Derby. If jockey Martin Garcia successfully scoots around some horses without any incident, Conveyance could send trainer Bob Baffert back to the winner's circle at Churchill Downs.

If you're a win-place-show type of person, then heading to the mutuels and just betting on #17 Dublin is probably a smart idea. You may ultimately see 15-1 or 20-1 on this horse by the time he goes off on the track.

If exotics are more your thing, then you have a number of options. For the high rollers, we recommend playing Dublin with some combination of #14 Mission Impazible, #12 Conveyance, #6 Stately Victor, #4 Super Saver, and #10 Paddy O'Prado.

But for those of you yet that just want to go pluck down $2 on a trifecta and try to strike it large, here is our ultimate prediction for the 2010 Kentucky Derby...

#17 Dublin - #12 Conveyance - #10 Paddy O'Prado