More on NHL Trends with Fletcher

[fletcher]

We continue our discussion of statistical analysis this time in the NHL. In NBA yesterday I pointed out two teams, Toronto and Houston, that had huge edges according to the numbers. Both were small favorites and a low price on money line. Well, the teams split with Toronto going down by one and Houston covering easily. So despite the stats that had Toronto winning the game by trends of 90% and 84%, they still managed to lose. This reminded me of the Anaheim Duck game also where trends showed that when Anaheim had a 2-1 lead, they had won 24 of last 25 games. Well, they lost that one. So be careful of the trends as they are not always as good as they look. Like I said before, some people bank on these computer generated results and do well. I prefer to use a scouting and coaching approach and rely little on trends.

Tomorrow in NHL (Thursday) we have a couple of games for you to look at that pose some pretty strong trends. These would be Calgary and Toronto. To simply win the game, Calgary has some impressive numbers. Here are a few - 73.5% (8-3 this year); 79.3% (1-1 this year); 89.7% (1-0); 86.3% (44-7 since 1997, 3-1 this year; 76%, 51-17 (1-1).
What I might look at here are the number of games that produced the stats. I must admit the 86.3% that has gone 44-7 since 1997 and 3-1 this year is something to think about. So is the 76% number that has gone 51-17 but only 1-1 this year. The Flames are only -155 on the overnight line so this might be some value.

Another game that has strong trends is the Toronto match up. They have situation advantages of 77.8% (3-1); 74% (4-1); and 72.9%, (4-1). What impresses me here is the 11-3 record of these trends this year.

I hope you find this discussion of trends interesting and thought provoking. When I have more time on the weekend perhaps I will break down an NHL or NCAA or NBA game and state the trends so you can see exactly what we are talking about. That is a must then you must decide how much value, if any, to assign to these numbers. We have hit 5 of our last 6 free plays on the website (www.gamblersdata.com) so be sure to check everyday.